The Sound of Economics

The keyword in Ukraine right now is ‘uncertainty’, as the country prepares to elect a new parliament in July only a few months after electing a new president.  Not only will the new government have a role in stabilising and growing the economy following the 2014-15 economic crisis, but they will face the challenge of a large debt repayment during their term while dealing with an aggressive Russia.   In a political climate that is known for being corrupt and not respecting the rule of law, there are opportunities to change the country beyond economic policy.     In this episode of the Backstage podcast series, Giuseppe Porcaro, head of communications and events at Bruegel, hosts non-resident fellow Marek Dabrowski and Hlib Vyshlinsky, executive director at the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) to discuss the opportunities for the new government and the best recipe of reforms.    For further reading, we recommend this blog post written by Marek Dabrowski about Ukraine’s struggle for reform, as well as this policy contribution on Ukraine’s unfinished reform agenda. 

An analysis of the results of the most recent European elections reveals what Bruegel director Guntram Wolff classifies as a generally positive trend in electoral participation across the EU, with an overall increase of 7% in voter turnout since the last elections in 2014. Additionally, populist parties in the European Parliament seem to have been prevented from gaining ground. However, election results in some EU member states were not as pro-EU at the national level. In this podcast, Guntram Wolff welcomes Ferdinando Giugliano from Bloomberg and Krzysztof Blusz from WiseEuropa to discuss the results in each guest's home countries - Italy and Poland, respectively - and how the nationalist trends in each state might play a role in politics in the new European Parliament and European Commission. If you are interested in Bruegel's work concerning the European elections, we recommend our blog post: ‘Spitzenkandidaten visions for the future of Europe’s economy’, which features the candidates for the next president of the European Commission. You can also visit the main page for our Spitzenkandidaten series, to review the content in full.

Giuseppe Porcaro hosts Bruegel director Guntram Wolff and visiting fellow Rebecca Christie to reflect on the key policy positions taken by the candidates for the European Commission presidency, ahead of May's elections. European elections are fast approaching. With them comes not just a visit to the polls, but the beginning of a sequence involving the European Parliament and the Council that will eventually decide who becomes the next president of the Commission. The Spitzenkandidaten process sees each of the parties put forward their nominated candidate - or candidates - one of whom should eventually assume the presidency, if the various criteria can be met. Looking back upon Bruegel's recent six-part series of events, held in partnership with the Financial Times, the discussants assess the candidates' views on Europe's future industrial policy path, the EU's stance on the growing trade dispute between the US and China, as well as the most vital and realistic euro-area reforms for the next five years. The debate also considers how each of the candidates might be positioning themselves and their parties in the complex process of selecting a new president. Giuseppe Porcaro leads the review with Bruegel visiting fellow Rebecca Christie and director Guntram Wolff, in this special edition of the Backstage series. If you would like to review the series in more depth, we recommend our blog post: ‘Spitzenkandidaten visions for the future of Europe’s economy’, which contains extracts and video clips from the events. You can also visit the main page for our Spitzenkandidaten series, to review the content in full.

Bruegel director Guntram Wolff and Bruegel fellow Uri Dadush welcome William Alan Reinsch, senior adviser and Scholl chair in international business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, for a discussion of how China-US relations are developing in the context of unfolding trade war. With President Trump increasing tariffs on the US' imports from China and China retaliating in kind, the trade dispute between the two countries is escalating quickly. Here the discussants elaborate on the disruption caused by trade tariffs, the likelihood of China acquiescing to US demands with regard to economic reform, and where the EU might figure in the stand-off.  Guntram Wolff introduces this Director's Cut of 'The Sound of Economics', welcoming Bruegel fellow Uri Dadush as well as William Alan Reinsch, senior adviser and Scholl chair in international business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.   If you are interested in more of Bruegel's work on this topic, we suggest Uri Dadush's blog post on the full implications of the escalating trade dispute between the US and China. We also recommend Alicia García-Herrero's working paper on the EU's options amid the China-US trade turmoil.

'The Sound of Economics' podcast continues with an instalment of the Deep Focus series, with Bruegel fellow Marek Dabrowski talking to Sean Gibson about the findings of his research paper on Russia's growth problems (co-written with Antoine Mathieu Collin). The Russian economy has weathered several crises in recent decades, most recently between 2014-16. Though this latest dip was relatively not so deep, growth has returned much more slowly this time around than in previous years. Some problems are age-old, while others are a product of recent political movements and developments. In this episode the conversation specifies some of Russia's institutional shortcomings and structural economic weaknesses, accounting for the country's efforts at macroeconomic management and the evolving demographic difficulties particularly concerning Russia's working-age population.  The discussion also reflects on the particular economic impacts of Russia's involvement in Ukraine, and looks ahead to the most vital and realistic possible remedial measures that could yet be taken. If you are interested in more of Bruegel's work on this topic, we recommend Marek Dabrowski's blog post on how Russia's foreign policy obstructs its attempts at economic modernisation. Also consider the same author's recent publication, 'Can emerging markets be a source of global troubles again?'

Bruegel fellows Rebecca Christie and Nicolas Véron discuss how the map of the EU's financial services industry has begun to change, and how it might eventually settle. The Brexit process has begun to unravel the supremacy of London as the financial centre of Europe, yet it remains unclear how the map of the EU's financial system will eventually be refigured. Several cities have emerged to compete not only for the business that is leaving the UK's capital but for new investment as well. This raises broader questions about whether it is more beneficial to have a single hub or to spread financial services across numerous locations. It also poses difficulties for firms that relocate, some of whose general staff may prefer a different destination to that desired by the lawyers and compliance officers. Brexit has set in motion events that will not be undone even if the UK were to throw the process in full reverse, and remain in the EU, and the idea has been mooted that Brexit merely accelerated a desertion of London that may have happened in any case. Still, the future landscape of the EU's financial services industry will still largely depend on the final shape of the UK's future relationship with the EU. Broadly, observers would expect a harder Brexit to yield a swifter and more seismic movement away from London. In this episode of the Bruegel Backstage podcast series, Bruegel visiting fellow Rebecca Christie and senior fellow Nicolas Véron discuss the early developments in this direction, and the likeliest areas of future progression. Each of the discussants made presentations at the Bruegel event 'The emerging new geography of financial centers in Europe', which was conducted under the Chatham House rule. For further reading, we recommend this article written by Nicolas Véron about the relocation of banking business from London to elsewhere in Europe in the wake of the Brexit referendum vote.

Maria Demertzis sits down with Bruegel senior fellow André Sapir to break down the news, discussing the events leading up to the renewed EU-US trade talks, and the likely future course. On 15 April 2019, the European Council approved mandates for the Commission to resume trade negotiations with the United States, which are to be centered around eliminating industrial tariffs. Although already a breakthrough, the talks are set to encounter many difficulties given their highly political nature. Bruegel's deputy director Maria Demertzis sits down with senior fellow André Sapir to assess the news, discussing the events leading up to the renewed talks and the likely future outcomes. A consistent theme in the making of any EU trade deal is the repeated declaration that it would only engage with countries that are signatories to the Paris Agreement. In 2017, the Trump administration announced the US' intention to withdraw from that agreement, which should in theory exclude the possibility of a trade deal. Maria and Andre discuss just how likely it is for the deal to come to fruition against this backdrop. Lastly, the discussants touch upon how the fractured EU-US trade relationship affects the multilateral trading system and, by extension, global economic growth. For further reading, we recommend the Policy Contribution of Uri Dadush and Guntram Wolff, which analyses how Europe can act in the interest both of itself and the multilateral system amid the ongoing global trade crisis. Similarly, consider Alicia García-Herrero's recent Working Paper on the the options available to the EU in the face of the US-China trade stand-off.

In this episode of the Director's cut, Guntram Wolff discusses with Alicia Garcia Herrero about the results of the 21st EU-China Summit.  The EU and China committed to further strengthen the EU-China strategic partnership at the 21st EU-China summit. Both sides agreed on a joint statement setting out the direction for EU-China relations in the years to come. Leaders expressed their joint support for multilateralism and rules-based trade. They reaffirmed their joint engagement to reform the World Trade Organisation. The EU and China agreed to work together to address industrial subsidies. They also discussed foreign and security issues in their respective neighbourhoods. Bruegel's director and Alicia Garcia Herrero comment on the joint declaration and the challenges for the next steps in this cooperation.  Further reading on Eu-China on Bruegel website

Bruegel director Guntram Wolff talks to Padmashree Gehl Sampath, a Berkman Klein fellow at Harvard University, on the consequences of ‘new manufacturing’ for European industrial policymaking. In this Director’s Cut of ‘The Sound of Economics’, Bruegel’s Guntram Wolff discusses Industry 4.0 with Harvard University Berkman Klein fellow Padmashree Gehl Sampath. Europe is yet to truly explore what interventions can and should be made with regard to the digitisation of industrial policy. But the ongoing development of technologies obliges the EU to examine how best to create a level playing-field for companies, and how to ensure that newly compiled sets of data can contribute positively to the welfare of its citizens. The deployment of Europe’s General Data Protection Regulation brought into focus the potential negative consequences of people’s data being amassed. Yet, as the discussants consider here, there are many potential works to which these data can be put that would serve a greater public good. But this will only follow once policymakers formulate fresh approaches tailored to the challenge, and propose how they will follow through on their aforementioned obligations. If you would like to read more on this topic, we recommend our blog post by Silvia Merler on machine learning and economics.

Bruegel director Guntram Wolff and senior fellow André Sapir discuss how potential WTO reform might position the organisation differently towards China. In this Director's Cut of 'The Sound of Economics', Guntram Wolff talks to Bruegel senior fellow André Sapir about his upcoming paper on the WTO reform, specifically what is necessary in order for the Chinese economic system to be compatible with the global multilateral trading system. China has recently been atop the European policy agenda, especially with President Xi's recent visits to Rome and Paris ahead of the EU-China Summit in April. The discussants here walk us through the main challenges in the EU's quest to position itself vis-à-vis China, including the issues of forced technology transfers and the behaviour of Chinese state-owned enterprises. For further reading, we recommend the Bruegel Policy Contribution by Uri Dadush and Guntram Wolff on how Europe should approach the unfolding crisis in global trade.