The Sound of Economics

Women are less financially literate than men. But does this gap reflect a lack of knowledge or a lack of confidence? To find out Maria Demertzis, deputy director of Bruegel is joined by Annamaria Lusardi, Professor of Economics and Accountancy at the George Washington University and non-resident fellow at Bruegel and Maarten van Rooij, senior economist at the Dutch Central Bank in The Sound of Economics. Annamaria and Maarten explain their findings in a recently published paper that about one-third of the financial literacy gender gap can be explained by women’s lower confidence levels. Relevant publication: Bucher-Koenen F., R. Alessie, A. Lusardi and M. Rooij (2021) ‘Fearless woman: financial literacy and stock market participation’.

Pandemic aside, the past year has seen renewed discussions in Europe on transparency and good governance as the EU takes an unprecedented role in health policy and procurement and in the creation of common debt.  As part of an ongoing effort to capture a wide range of views from the European Parliament, this week in The Sound of Economics Guntram Wolff talks to Vice President of Renew Europe and MEP for Hungary, Katalin Cseh to discuss all things governance, human rights, and transparency of vaccine purchasing.  

Maria Demertzis and Nicola Vegi join Giuseppe Porcaro to talk about their recent research on low interest rates, declining productivity growth and how to tackle this. In both Europe and the United States, interest rates have been declining for more than fifteen years. For much of this period, real interest rates have been negative and they are expected to remain negative for at least another decade. The literature associates this decline in interest rates with a similarly protracted decline in productivity. But the decline in productivity appears paradoxical given major technological advances. The structural factors behind the downward pressure on interest rates imply that macroeconomic policy will have a reduced role in managing aggregate demand. Monetary policy in the euro area will be more about preventing financial fragmentation and less about stimulating demand. Equally, fiscal policy will have more of a supporting rather than stimulating role. Tackling the structural decline in market dynamism and therefore in real rates will require structural policies to reduce market power globally and ensure the creation of capital markets in the EU.

This podcast episode is part of Bruegel’s macroeconomic outlook series of The Sound of Economics, in which we bring you regular analysis of all things macro and fiscal policy. This February, the European Commission published the Winter 2021 Economic Forecast with the estimation of a 3.7% increase in GDP in the EU in 2021. While this means a recovery from the pandemic, economic uncertainty still remains significant. On the other side of the globe, the Biden administration has announced a $1.9 trillion fiscal package. Would this result in inflation risks? How will this affect European economies? And, what fiscal intervention is needed in the euro area? Maria Demertzis, Deputy director of Bruegel, is joined by Elina Ribakova, Deputy Chief Economist at the Institute of International Finance, Christian Odendahl, Chief economist at the Centre for European Reform and Grégory Claeys, senior fellow at Bruegel to discuss the Commission forecast, recent US fiscal package and their insights of the macroeconomics outlook in the EU and globally. Relevant publications: Demertzis, M. (2021) ‘A K-shaped recovery and the role of fiscal policy’ Claeys, G. and M. Demertzis (2021) ‘The productivity paradox: policy lessons from MICROPROD’, Policy Contribution 01/2021, Bruegel Demertzis, M., M. Domínguez-Jiménez and A. Lusardi (2020) ‘The financial fragility of European households in the time of COVID-19’, Policy Contribution 2020/15, Bruegel

This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics. ZhōngHuá Mundus is a new newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox! The middle-income trap describes a situation in which a country, having attained a certain income level, gets stuck there (due to given advantages). The high-income trap is of a similar nature, because although the positioning of these economies might be more advantageous to begin with, they find it difficult to promote innovation in manufacturing or upgrade to higher value-added services to remain competitive and provide benefits to a wider spectrum of society. In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro and Alicia García-Herrero are joined by Syaru Shirley Lin, Compton Visiting Professor in World Politics at the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. They discuss the middle/high-income trap in East Asia, and especially in China. Is the high-income trap different between East Asia and Western Europe, especially in terms of their economic relationship with China? How has COVID-19 changed the economic landscape?

Central bankers now seem keen to take on responsibility for policy objectives they have previously shied away from – in particular, tackling climate change. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde acknowledged in January that central bankers will have to look beyond their traditional duties to address the challenge. ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel said in September 2020 that central banks should be an active part of the collective effort to reduce carbon emissions. Executive Board Member Fabio Panetta said ECB analysis can help make climate-risk valuations more accurate. Should central banks continue accommodating corporate bonds and bank loans of high carbon companies as collateral, or should they reduce them? Giuseppe Porcaro, is joined by Rebecca Christie, Jean Pisani-Ferry and Dirk Schoenmaker to discuss the hot topic of the role of central banks in greening finance and possibly contribute to decarbonisation. The three guests of this episode recently published a series of blog posts which tackle the issue from complementary perspective: Christie, R. (2021) ‘US separates climate concerns from financial oversight in contrast to EU activism’, Bruegel Blog, 18 February Pisani-Ferry, J. (2021) ‘Central banking’s brave new world’, 24 February Schoenmaker, D. (2021) ‘A brown or a green European Central Bank?’ Bruegel Blog, 24 February

COVID-19 has caused unprecedented disruption to business. Since the first lockdowns, governments have used credit support programmes as the main instrument to mitigate the liquidity shock businesses have been facing. Have the programmes worked? Bruegel Director Guntram Wolff is joined by Bruegel's very own Julia Anderson, Francesco Papadia and Nicolas Véron to talk about their research into credit support programmes in Europe’s five largest economies. They share their findings with us as well as possible policy implications. Related research: Anderson, J., F. Papadia and N. Véron (2021) ‘COVID-19 credit-support programmes in Europe’s five largest economies, Working Paper 03/2021, Bruegel Dataset, Loan guarantees and other national credit-support programmes in the wake of COVID-19 Anderson J., Papadia F. and Véron N. (2020) ‘Government-guaranteed bank lending six months on’, Bruegel Blog, 29 September

Across the Atlantic, EU member states have been discussing a recovery plan since last spring, striking an agreement over the summer to create a €750 billion pandemic recovery fund. Hard-pressed EU capitals must now submit detailed plans to Brussels to unlock their share of the cash and begin rebooting their economies. One such country is Italy, where an ambitious once in a generation plan is being drawn up to spend €200 billion to relaunch an anemic economy. The hope is that by pushing through unpalatable reforms together with funds underwritten by 27 member states, that an economy that has not grown in real terms for over two decades can be jump started. Bruegel has been tracking the national recovery plans that states have been submitting to Brussels to unlock funds, and plans to release an overview soon. Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Bruegel scholars Carlo Altomonte, Maria Demertzis and Zsolt Darvas to discuss economic stimulus and its implications.  For more details, please check our dataset on national fiscal response to the economic fallout from the coronavirus. Bruegel will soon publish a new dataset on national recovery plans. Stay tuned!

The European Green Deal is a plan to decarbonise the EU economy by 2050, revolutionise the EU’s energy system, profoundly transform the economy and inspire efforts to combat climate change. But the plan will also have profound geopolitical repercussions and is likely to impact partner countries adversely. In the latest paper co-written by Bruegel and the European Council on Foreign Relations, the authors map out the geopolitical implications and lay out a foreign policy agenda to manage the geopolitical aspects of the European Green Deal and lead climate change efforts globally. In this episode of The Sound of Economics, co-authors Jeremy Shapiro of the European Council on Foreign Relations, as well as Jean Pisani Ferry, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram Wolff of Bruegel introduce their paper and give their insight on this issue. Related content: Leonard, M., J.Pisani-Ferry, J. Shapiro, S. Tagliapietra and G. Wolff (2021) ‘The geopolitics of the European Green Deal’, Policy Contribution 04/2021, Bruegel Event, The geopolitics of the Green Deal

On 30 November 2020 after over 7 years of talks, the European Union and China concluded negotiations for a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI for short). The agreement is intended to increase investment between the EU and China by establishing a legal framework and common rules on issues ranging from state-owned enterprises to subsidy transparency and rules against the forced transfer of technologies. The deal replaces more than two dozen bilateral investment treaties between the EU’s 27 member states and China, improving market access for European companies operating — or intending to operate — in China and ensuring a level playing field and reciprocity when they do. Does the agreement actually live up to the above claims and seven years of expectation? To help us find out, in this episode of the Sound of Economics Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Bert Hofman, the director of the East Asian Institute at National University of Singapore and Bruegel’s China expert Alicia García-Herrero, for a in depth commentary and glance at what the detail of the deal means for Europe. Relevant publications: Demertzis, M. (2021) ‘An EU – China investment deal: a second look’ 19 January García-Herrero, A. (2021) 'Europe’s disappointing investment deal with China' 4 January