The Sound of Economics

In the future, what forces will cause the economy to grow and stagnate? What impact will AI and automation have on the economy? Is capitalism a sustainable economic model? Today on The Sound of Economics, we're asking the big questions. In order to find answers, our own Giuseppe Porcaro hosts Aaron Benanav, recent author of Automation and the Future of Work. Benanav argues that the "rise of the robots" may not really explain future employment crises, or our failure to move into a post-scarcity era. Meanwhile, Bruegel Research Fellow Laura Nurski adds insight from her own research at Bruegel's Future of work and inclusive growth project, and Alexis Moraitis at Lancaster University considers how advances in technology could impact the international political economy. If you want to learn more about the possible robot uprising, check out our work on artificial intelligence in the workplace, or listen to our past podcast, The Skills of the Future.

On 14 July, the European Commission finally announced a large package of measures that will make the EU the first mover in the race limit global warming, with measures targeting all sectors in a deepening and broadening of the European decarbonisation process. In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Bruegel’s Director Guntram Wolff and Bruegel Senior fellow Andre Sapir and Simone Tagliapietra walk you through the 13 proposals and hundreds of pages designed to ensure the continent meets the goal of reducing carbon emissions by 55 percent in 2030 and net zero by 2050, compared with 1990 levels. How ambitious are the goals? How should they be distributed among the citizens, businesses and countries of the EU? How stringent should a new carbon border adjustment be? Recommend readings: How to make the European Green Deal work (2019), GRÉGORY CLAEYS, SIMONE TAGLIAPIETRA AND GEORG ZACHMANN https://www.bruegel.org/2019/11/how-to-make-the-european-green-deal-work/  Fit for 55 marks Europe’s climate moment of truth (2021), SIMONE TAGLIAPIETRA https://www.bruegel.org/2021/07/fit-for-55-marks-europes-climate-moment-of-truth/ The geopolitics of the European Green Deal (2021), MARK LEONARD, JEREMY SHAPIRO, JEAN PISANI-FERRY, SIMONE TAGLIAPIETRA AND GUNTRAM B. WOLFF https://www.bruegel.org/2021/02/the-geopolitics-of-the-european-green-deal/ How to extend carbon pricing beyond the comfort zone, GEORG ZACHMANN https://www.bruegel.org/2021/04/how-to-extend-carbon-pricing-beyond-the-comfort-zone/

Here's what's clear: public spending is on the rise. Public expenditure ratios have quadrupled since 1870, and increased even more in the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Is that good or bad? What does responsible public spending look like? How should governments institute reforms in order to improve their public spending agendas? These questions are less clear. Bruegel's Director, Guntram Wolff, sits down with Former Deputy Secretary-General of OECD, Ludger Schuknecht to discuss the issues surrounding public spending in post-pandemic economies.

This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics. ZhōngHuá Mundus is a newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox! On July 1st, 2021, the Chinese Communist Party celebrated its 100th anniversary. Today, Bruegel's Giuseppe Porcaro speaks with Bruegel Senior Fellow Alicia García-Herrero and Professor Steve Tsang, Director of SOAS China Institute at University of London about the past, present, and future of the Party. What are the Party's successes and failures? What is the "China model"? Will it ever be exported to other nations? Can the country's economic success continue? 

When COVID-19 struck last spring, European governments rapidly implemented measures to keep businesses afloat. Did those policies support productive firms that bolster the economy? Or, did the policies merely enable the survival of "zombie" firms that ought to have gone bankrupt? One year into the pandemic, Bruegel Deputy Director Maria Demertzis speaks with professors Steffen Müller, Filippo di Mauro, and Carlo Altomonte about whether or not fiscal policy has been successful throughout the pandemic, and how governments can deftly adapt their measures to revitalize their economies as more people across Europe receive COVID-19 vaccinations. Relevant event: The impact of COVID-19 on productivity: preliminary firm evidence with Carlo Altomonte, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Maria Demertzis, Filippo di Mauro and Steffen Müller.

‘Technological change is revolutionising the workplace’, ‘the future is automated’ and ‘a robot will be doing my work before long’ are phrases we hear a lot when it comes to discussing the impact of technological advancement on the labour market and skills. But what is the real impact of robots or AI on the workforce? And, how can we steer technological change in a direction that is labour-complementing and welfare enhancing? How can governments and businesses help workers to adapt to technological change, through reskilling and transitioning initiatives? As part of Bruegel’s Future of work and inclusive growth project, Bruegel fellow Laura Nurski and Dimitrios Pikios, ESCO Project coordinator at DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion at European Commission joined Giuseppe Porcaro to talk about the risks of automation, deskilling but also the opportunities for new learning that come with technology and what policymakers can do to facilitate this.

As the only global international organisation dealing with the rules of trade between nations, the World Trade Organisation should be the place where governments sort out the trade problems they face with each other. However, in recent years, WTO members have not managed to conclude new agreements to liberalise trade in goods and services. The organisation has not played a significant role in defusing and addressing the trade conflict between the US and China. It was also largely ‘missing in action’ during the first stages of the global COVID-19 pandemic. All these lead to the conclusion that reform is necessary – whether the political will exists to re engage multilaterally and pursue it is another question. In this live podcast, Giuseppe Porcaro and Niclas Poitiers are joined by Bernard Hoekman, Professor and Director of Global Economics at the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute in Florence; Petros C. Mavroidis, Edwin B. Parker Professor of Law at Columbia Law School in New York and Anna Dias, Lawyer and partner at Gide Loyrette Nouel in Paris. Together they discuss what areas of reform the WTO should prioritise, and what challenges it would face. Revelant Publications: China and the WTO: Why Multilateralism Still Matters, Book by Petros C. Mavroidis and André Sapir. Avoiding a Requiem for the WTO, Article by Petros C. Mavroidis and Bernard Hoekman. *This article is part of the Revue européenne du droit (RED) issue on global governance, which you can read here. This podcast is organised together with the editorial team of RED which we thank for the support.

President Biden is visiting Brussels for the first time since his inauguration on 14 June, with great expectations by European commentators to forge a closer transatlantic cooperation.  Prior to his visit, Giuseppe Porcaro and Simone Tagliapietra are joined by Ana Palacio, Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Spain to discuss why the two sides of the Atlantic should form a climate alliance, which are the challenges the EU and the US will have to overcome; and most importantly, if this joint cooperation would be enough to leverage the rest of the world.  Relevant publications: A transatlantic climate alliance, Opinion by Ana Palacio and Simone Tagliapietra

This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics. ZhōngHuá Mundus is a newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox! Since 2010, the landscape of China’s largest companies has shifted away from the dominance of state-owned enterprises towards a more diverse and complex landscape with an increasing number of mixed-ownership enterprises and non-public enterprises. This evolution, however, has been far from linear with Chinese private companies facing several challenges. In this episode, SHAN Weijian, Chairman and CEO of PAG, joins Giuseppe Porcaro and Alicia García-Herrero from Hong Kong, to share his insights on how the private sector has progressed and the road ahead.

The recent forced landing of an internal EU flight to arrest opposition activist Roman Protasevich is the latest escalation by a President who is consolidating power in the wake of unrest following the disputed results of the 2020 presidential election. The EU and international community reacted with further retaliatory sanctions and a flight ban over and by Belarussian airlines. Where does EU external action go from here? This week, Bruegel Director Guntram Wolff is joined by Sławomir Dębski, Director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), to discuss Belarus’ fractious relationship with its neighbours and put the events of the last year into the wider historical and European context.