The Sound of Economics

In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Maria Demertzis and Grégory Claeys are joined by Ayhan Kose, Chief Economist of Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions (EFI) and Director of the Prospects Group at the World Bank, and co-author of the report ‘Is a Global Recession Imminent?’. Together they look at the global trends of rising inflation and slowing growth, discuss whether the world is heading into a recession; or, if a recession is inevitable, whether a soft-landing would be possible and how it could be achieved. (This podcast was recorded on 6th October 2022)

The 20th National Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party commenced on 16 October and will run for seven days. The Congress takes place every five years and is the most important political event in the People’s Republic of China. Giuseppe Porcaro and Alicia Garcia-Herrero invite Chenggang Xu, Senior research fellow at Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions to navigate the decisions that are to be taken in this gathering and whether they meet the predictions. This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics. ZhōngHuá Mundus is a newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox!

 The rise in Chinese influence in the Western Balkans over the last decade is among the most significant geopolitical developments in Europe. As an element of Beijing’s wide internationalisation efforts to expand its global footprint, the country has been working to improve its position in several key sectors, from energy and infrastructure to culture, education and media. A lot of these investments are linked to the Belt and Road initiative. Giuseppe Porcaro and Alicia García-Herrero invite Mira Milosevich-Juaristi to help navigate the Chinese investments in the Balkans and their strategic importance and what this means for Europe. This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics. ZhōngHuá Mundus is a newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox!

The COVID-19 pandemic, Russian invasion of Ukraine, energy crisis and the resulting high inflation have created new worries about inequality on both sides of the atlantic. Labour markets and occupations have gone through profound changes as a result of technological progress, globalisation and changes to labour market institutions, among many other factors. In this episode of the Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro hosts Indivar Dutta-Gupta, President & Executive Director, CLASP Center for Law and Social Policy, and István György Tóth, Director of Tarki Social Research Institute, for a conversation about the evolving nature of inequality on both sides of the Atlantic, what are the drivers of this wedge and what policy tools are needed to address it. This was produced within the project "Transatlantic expert group on the future of work", with the financial support of the European Union. Its contents are the sole responsibility of Bruegel AISBL and The German Marshall Fund of the United States and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union.

The European Political Community is a new political grouping proposed by the French president Emmanuel Macron that would include the EU countries, the Balkans, and other nearby states including the United Kingdom. On 6 October 2022, the first meeting of this new configuration will take place. In this live podcast co-organised with Open society foundations and German Council on Foreign Relations, Giuseppe Porcaro invites Jean Pisani-Ferry,  Daniela Schwarzer,  Shahin Vallée, as well as Milica Delević​​​​​​​ and Hlib Vyshlinsky, to envision what this grouping should look like and its functions. Relevant publication: Mayer, F., J. Pisani-Ferry, D. Schwarzer and S. Vallée (2022) ‘Enlarging and deepening: giving substance to the European Political Community', Policy Contribution 15/2022, Bruegel

In July 2022, by the time the European Central Bank (ECB) lifted its deposit rate from negative to zero, headline inflation in the euro area had reached 8.9%. Irrespective of the drivers of inflation – a temporary supply shock or lasting demand shock – it is shocking that a central bank with a price stability mandate keeps its main interest rate negative while inflation accelerates that much. Something clearly went wrong. With the benefit of hindsight, it is easy to say that the ECB made mistakes. But should the ECB have acted differently, given the information available at the time of its monetary policy meetings?  In this episode of the Sound of Economics, Bruegel Director Jeromin Zettelmeyer and Senior fellow Zsolt Darvas sit down to discuss the ECB’s six lapses in tackling inflation, uncertainties surrounding the euro area's economy and what could have been done differently.

Ukraine, a country of over 40 million people, has seen about 15% of its population flee the country. Will many that have fled Ukraine return, or will families eventually be reunited abroad, possibly implying an even greater inflow of Ukrainians into Europe and elsewhere when the war is over? Giuseppe Porcaro sits down with Pauline Weil to discuss the implications of Ukrainian refugees’ situation for Ukraine and its future reconstruction efforts, for receiving countries and for the EU Common European Asylum System, as analysed in her paper co-authored with Uri Dadush: ‘Will Ukraine’s refugees go home?' Check our special podcast series, War in Ukraine, which reflect on the implications of Russia’s war in Ukraine in EU energy storage, macroeconomic implications, international finance system and more.

On 14 September 2022 Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, delivered the State of the Union address before the European Parliament. In this episode of The Sound of Economics Live, Giuseppe Porcaro hosts Maria Demertzis, André Sapir, Jeromin Zettelmeyer and Georg Zachmann to evaluate the State of the Union address, from the support to Ukraine, energy crisis, recovery plans, as well as the EU’s external policies.

 China’s GDP growth plummeted to only 0.4% YoY in Q2 2022, the worse performance after Q1 2020 when the first wave of COVID-19 hit Wuhan. Apart from the economic turbulence, a major political event to look out for is the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, to be held on 16 October 2022. What should we expect from this gathering and what economic impact will it have? Giuseppe Porcaro discusses with Alicia García-Herrero and XU Sitao. This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics. ZhōngHuá Mundus is a newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox!

Europe’s energy system faces unprecedented physical and institutional stress. Jeromin Zettelmeyer sits down with Simone Tagliapietra and Georg Zachmann to discuss the causes of the problem, and what solutions could be offered. Simone and Georg present their recent paper ‘A grand bargain to steer through the European Union’s energy crisis’, where they argue an integrated European approach and a coordinated plan is essential to address the crisis.