
The Orthogonal Bet
Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, a podcast that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman
Latest episodes

Feb 15, 2025 • 43min
Alex Komoroske on How to Navigate Complexity Within a Large Organizations
In this episode, host Samuel Arbesman Sam speaks with Alex Komoroske, a master of systems thinking. Alex is the CEO and co-founder of a startup building at the intersection of AI, privacy, and open-endedness. Previously, he served as the Head of Corporate Strategy at Stripe, and before that, spent many years at Google, where he worked on the Chrome web platform, ambient computing strategy, Google Maps, Google Earth, and more.The throughline for Alex is his focus on complex systems, which are everywhere: from the Internet to biology, from the organizations we build to society as a whole. These systems consist of networks of countless interacting parts, whether computers or people. Navigating them requires a new mode of thinking, quite different from the top-down rigid planning many impose on the world.Alex is deeply passionate about systems thinking and its broad implications—from making an impact in the world and navigating within and between organizations to understanding undirectedness and curiosity in one’s work.His more bottom-up, improvisational approach to systems thinking reveals insights on a range of topics, from how to approach large tech companies and the value of startups, to a perspective on artificial intelligence that untangles hype from reality.Produced by Christopher GatesMusic by Suno

Feb 15, 2025 • 43min
Adrian Tchaikovsky on Bio Trajectories and the Importance of Long-Term Thinking
In this episode, host Samuel Arbesman speaks with Adrian Tchaikovsky, the celebrated novelist of numerous science fiction and fantasy books, including his Children of Time series, Final Architects series, and The Doors of Eden. Among many other topics, Adrian’s novels often explore evolutionary history, combining “what-if” questions with an expansive view of the possible directions biology can take, with implications for both Earth and alien life. This is particularly evident in The Doors of Eden, which examines alternate potential paths for evolution and intelligence on Earth.Sam was interested in speaking with Adrian to learn how he thinks about evolution, how he builds the worlds in his stories, and how he envisions the far future of human civilization. They discussed a wide range of topics, including short-term versus long-term thinking, terraforming planets versus altering human biology for space, the Fermi Paradox and SETI, the logic of evolution, world-building, and even how advances in AI relate to science fiction depictions of artificial intelligence.Produced by Christopher GatesMusic by Suno

Feb 15, 2025 • 34min
John Strausbaugh on The Harsh Realities of the Soviet Space Program
In this episode, host Samuel Arbesman speaks with John Strausbaugh, a former editor of New York Press and the author of numerous history books. John’s latest work is the compelling new book “The Wrong Stuff: How the Soviet Space Program Crashed and Burned.”The book is an eye-opening delight, filled with stories about the Potemkin Village-like space program that the Soviets ran. Beneath the achievements that alarmed the United States, the Soviet space program was essentially a shambling disaster. The book reveals many tales that had been hidden from the public for years. In this conversation, Samuel explores how John became interested in this topic, the nature of the Soviet space program and the Cold War’s Space Race, the role of propaganda, how to think about space programs more generally, and much more.Produced by Christopher GatesMusic by Suno

Feb 14, 2025 • 44min
Michael Levin on Understanding Embodied Intelligence
In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with Michael Levin, a biologist and the Vannevar Bush Professor at Tufts University. Michael’s work encompasses how information is processed in biology, the development of organismal structures, the field of Artificial Life, and much more.Sam wanted to talk to Michael because of his pioneering research in these areas. Biology, as Michael’s work reveals, is far more complex than the mechanistic explanations often taught in school. For instance, the process of morphogenesis—how organisms develop their specific forms—challenges our understanding of computation in biology, and Michael is leading the way in this field. He has deeply explored concepts such as the relationship between hardware and software in biological systems, the process of morphogenesis, the idea of polycomputing, and even the notion of cognition in biology.From his investigations into the regeneration process in planaria—a type of flatworm—to the creation of xenobots, a form of Artificial Life, Michael stands at the forefront of groundbreaking ideas in understanding how biology functions.Produced by Christopher GatesMusic by Suno

Feb 14, 2025 • 23min
Laurel Schwulst on The Quest to Build the Fruitful Web
In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with Laurel Schwulst. Laurel operates within many roles: designer, artist, educator, and technologist. She explores—among other things—the intersection of the human, the computational, and the wonderful. Sam wanted to talk to Laurel because of this intersection and particularly because of how Laurel thinks about the internet. As part of this, she helps to run HTML Day and its celebrations, promotes what is referred to as “HTML Energy,” and is even thinking deeply about what it would mean to create a PBS of the Internet. In other words, the Internet and the web are delightful and special for Laurel, and she wants more of that energy to exist in the world.Produced by Christopher GatesMusic by Suno

Feb 14, 2025 • 36min
Eliot Peper on The Art of Cultivating Curiosity
In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with Eliot Peper. Eliot is a science fiction novelist and all-around delightful thinker. Eliot’s books are thrilling tales of the near future, exploring many delightful areas of the world and the frontiers of science and technology. In Eliot’s most recent novel, Foundry, he takes the reader on a journey through the world of semiconductors, from their geopolitical implications to their profoundly weird manufacturing processes.Sam wanted to talk to Eliot to explore this profound strangeness of the manufacturing of computer chips, but also use this as a jumping-off point for something broader: how Eliot discovers these interesting topics and those wondrous worlds that are incorporated into his books. They spoke about the importance of curiosity, as well as concrete ways to cultivate this useful kind of curiosity, which was fascinating.Produced by Christopher GatesMusic by Suno

Feb 14, 2025 • 45min
Hilary Mason on Building a Fractal Combinatorial Trope Machine
In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with Hilary Mason, co-founder and CEO of Hidden Door, a startup creating a platform for interactive storytelling experiences within works of fiction. Hilary has also worked in machine learning and data science, having built a machine learning R&D company called Fast Forward Labs, which she sold to Cloudera. She was the chief scientist at Bitly and even a computer science professor.Samuel wanted to talk to Hilary not only because of her varied experiences but also because she has thought deeply about how to use AI productively—and far from naively—in games and other applications. She believes that artificial intelligence, including the current crop of generative AI, should be incorporated thoughtfully into software, rather than used without careful examination of its strengths and weaknesses. Additionally, Samuel, who often considers non-traditional research organizations, was eager to get Hilary’s thoughts on this space, given her experience building such an organization.Produced by Christopher GatesMusic by Suno

Feb 14, 2025 • 35min
Amy Kuceyeski on Using Computational Biology to Understand How the Brain Works
In this episode, host Samuel Arbesman speaks with Amy Kuceyeski, a mathematician and biologist who is a professor at Cornell University in computational biology, statistics, and data science, as well as in radiology at Weill Cornell Medical College. Amy studies the workings of the human brain, the nature of neurological diseases, and the use of machine learning and neuroimaging to better understand these topics.Sam wanted to talk to Amy because she has been using sophisticated AI techniques for years to understand the brain. She is full of innovative ideas and experiments about how to explore how we process the world, including building AI models that mimic brain processes. These models have deep connections and implications for non-invasively stimulating the brain to treat neurodegenerative diseases or neurological injuries.Produced by Christopher GatesMusic bySuno

Feb 14, 2025 • 10min
What the Microsoft Outage Reveals about Complex Systems
In this episode, host Samuel Arbesman delves into the recent CrowdStrike/Microsoft outage, providing insights on how to understand this event through the lens of complexity science. The episode was inspired by Sam's very timely post in the Atlantic: "What the Microsoft Outage Reveals"Join us as Sam answers Producer Christopher Gates’ questions, exploring the intricate web of factors that led to this global system failure and offering a unique perspective on navigating and preventing such crises in the future.Produced by Christopher GatesMusic bySuno

Feb 14, 2025 • 33min
Kristoffer Tjalve on The Poetic Web
In this episode, host Samuel Arbesman speaks with Kristoffer Tjalve. Kristoffer is hard to categorize, and in the best possible way. However, if one had to provide a description, it could be said that he is a curator and impresario of a burgeoning online community that celebrates the “quiet, odd, and poetic web.”What does this phrase mean? It can mean a lot, but it basically refers to anything that is the opposite of the large, corporate, and bland version of the Internet most people use today. The web that Kristoffer seeks out and tries to promote is playful, small, weird, and deeply human. Even though these features might have been eclipsed by social media and the current version of online experiences, this web—which feels like a throwback to the earlier days of the Internet—is still out there, and Kristoffer works to help cultivate it. He does this through a newsletter, an award, an event, and more.Produced by Christopher GatesMusic by Suno