C.O.B. Tuesday

Today we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend  Dr. Scott Tinker, Chairman of  Switch Energy Alliance and the Director of the  Bureau of Economic Geology at  The University of Texas at Austin. Scott's work is focused on addressing major societal challenges in energy, the environment, and the economy. He has co-produced two documentary films exploring energy across the developing world, " Switch" and its sequel " Switch On." It is always fantastic to visit with Scott and we appreciate his friendship and his never-ending push for the concept of the "radical middle" to create a new, better, and more thoughtful energy debate. In our discussion, we ask Scott for his thoughts on the current energy debate and political environment, his work with students and young professionals, the importance of getting more people out of poverty, energy density, China's and India's growth plans and potential environmental impact, and more. Scott also provides interesting takeaways from a recent and unique conference he co-hosted focusing on the dual challenge of climate and energy. We also discussed Scott's upcoming PBS series called "The Energy Switch," releasing this June. In the series, Scott moderates as leading professionals on both sides of the issues debate the key variables and decision points of our energy future.  As you all know, we frequently ask our guests, "What Does The Energy World Look Like In Ten Years?" As you will hear in today's video, Scott forecasted that in ten years, we'll have a "more balanced knowledge base" from which we can make great decisions for our energy future. It was a really interesting answer to the question we are always asking. We had a fantastic discussion with Scott and enjoyed his common-sense, practical, and global perspective. Mike Bradley kicked off the show with an update on energy market performance and weekly energy headlines, warning for a potential summer of pain with nations potentially hoarding supplies and restricting exports.  Colin Fenton shared a few thoughts on the new economic environment and reiterated Mike's point that we could experience a challenging summer.  As always, thank you for your friendship and support! One request of all of you... if you have a minute, watch Scott Tinker's most recent TED Talk, "The Dual Challenge: Energy and Environment". He's getting lots of views and we want to encourage you to view it and share it with others in your network as well. 

What a week! Following the prior two outstanding COBT guests this week, we end the week with our great friend and an inspiring leader,  Rob Kaplan. Most recently, Rob served as the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas from 2015 to 2021. Prior to the Fed, Rob served as Senior Associate Dean and Martin Marshall Professor of Management Practice at Harvard Business School, and before that he had an extensive Goldman Sachs career that included serving as Vice Chairman and Global Head of Investment Banking. With the current intense focus on inflation, the markets, green-flation, and deglobalization, we were eager to hear Rob's perspective. In our discussion with Rob, we ask tough questions on where the Fed finds itself now, steps they might take to handle inflation, factors that led to our current state including the energy transition and climate decisions, the psychology of inflation and how we might end the cycle, government debt, and more. We also touch on Rob's transitions throughout his career and his takeaways from his expansive experience working with private businesses, non-profits, government agencies, and academics. We likely tried to bite off more than we could chew in one hour and know it will take much more to solve the inflation bubble. It was our honor to host Rob and we sincerely thank him for his time. Mike Bradley started the show discussing notable headlines including the UK's windfall tax on energy companies and the likelihood that prices at the pump will continue to rise over summer.  Colin Fenton prepped us for our meaty discussion with Rob with extensive background on inflation rates, central bank liabilities, and if you are a long-time COBT fan you will be glad to hear he also updated us on the US average price for potato chips. Our country is certainly in a tough spot, for several reasons, and it was a great reminder from Rob that it will do us all a great service to put our heads down, chip away, and listen to each other. As always, thank you for your support and friendship!

Today we were honored to be joined by Maggie Peloso, the Lead Sustainability Partner and Climate Change Practice Leader at Vinson & Elkins (V&E). Maggie's unique background includes a Ph.D. from Duke University in Environment, a J.D. from Stanford Law School, a Masters in Environmental Management, Environmental Economics and Policy from Duke and a B.S. in Biology also from Duke. She is the author of " Adapting to Rising Sea Levels: Legal Challenges and Opportunities" and also a Lecturer in Law at the University of Pennsylvania. Maggie is based in Washington, D.C. and has been intimately involved helping her clients as the SEC's proposed Climate Risk Disclosure rules are debated. As you may know, the comment period on the proposed rules has been extended to June 17th. Needless to say, Maggie's phone has been ringing. In our discussion, we hit on all the major issues. You might recall we did a COBT early on when these rules first came out (March 30, 2022). Everyone has clearly been ruminating since then, and in our discussion today we had a couple of recurring themes: how is this really going to work and what are we really going to get when this is all finalized? Early in the conversation, you will hear Maggie uses the expression "trickle down climate policy" to describe the Biden Administration's attempts to push their focus on climate issues through various agencies and often through executive order. It struck us as a phrase worth remembering. The conversation with Maggie was fantastic. We cover a lot of great territory and with her experience as an environmentalist, we were able to venture outside legal territory and focus on some policy matters. It was a collision of law, science, materiality, and sustainability. We reference V&E's eight key takeaways from the proposed rules, and also the firm's full report on the proposed disclosures and the implications for companies.Mike Bradley kicked us off with a look at energy stock performance and upcoming events, highlighting a few actions from the Biden Administration. He also provides a closer look at the US vs. European natural gas year-to-date and shares an interesting comparison of the Davos 2022 conference themes to the themes of previous years.  Colin Fenton points out that despite the significant damage done in global markets year to date (excluding commodities and energy equities), social media signals suggest the lows for equity benchmarks have yet to be seen. Of course, risk could change swiftly on the low-but-not-zero odds for Putin's departure and the arrival of a new anti-war regime in Moscow. It was a real joy to visit and kick it around with Maggie in today's session. We greatly appreciate your viewership and hope you enjoy today's discussion! 

We are thrilled to share a Special Edition COBT featuring  Maria Korsnick, President and CEO of the Nuclear Energy Institute  (NEI). As a brief introduction, Maria has 36 years of experience in the nuclear industry from operations to management positions and has been with NEI since 2015. In her extensive career, Maria has been responsible for five reactors at three different locations and now uses her technical and operational background to advocate for the industry with key legislative and regulatory advancements. We had much to discuss! Maria's passion for nuclear energy is unmistakable and in our discussion we touch on the commercial nuclear industry, the America-Russia-China dynamic and importance of having long-term global relationships, the media's impact on the nuclear industry, the Civil Nuclear Credit Program, clean energy tax credits, applications for non-energy nuclear power use, re-purposing nuclear waste, and how putting nuclear energy together with alternate forms provides a compelling option for making the energy sector reliable and affordable. Nuclear's energy density relative to other energy sources is fascinating. We are excited to see how the NEI continues to advance the industry with governmental support. The Veriten team had a brief lead-in to start the show:  Mike Bradley shared a quick look at the uranium ETF (URA) to prepare us for our discussion.  Colin Fenton noted the lack of nuclear power mentioned in the European Commission's REPowerEU Plan released last Wednesday and had a few tidbits on wheat prices and Russian Ruble gains. We are also excited to announce that Brett Rampal has joined the Veriten team as Director, Nuclear and Power Strategy and will be leading our nuclear efforts. It was fantastic to visit with Maria. We hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did! Thanks to you all. 

We are powered up for a Special Edition COBT with our good friend, David Tudor. David is the Chief Executive Officer and General Manager of Associated Electric Cooperative Incorporated (AECI), a member-owned electric co-op serving two million customers in Missouri, Iowa and Oklahoma. David joined AECI in 2016 and has previously held positions at Champion Energy Services (CEO), ACES Power Marketing (CEO), and PG&E Energy Trading in his extensive energy career. It was a timely discussion given the recent blackout challenges Texas and other states are facing with summer weather heating up. AECI recently held their Annual Meeting with key themes including reliability, regulatory developments, and natural gas. The conference brought together over 750 people representing co-ops, utilities, banks, and power companies. Colin Fenton and I had the opportunity to speak about the increasing importance of natural gas domestically and globally and really enjoyed the conference and group of attendees. In our COBT discussion with David, we cover how AECI is uniquely positioned to focus on reliability, the co-op structure and what differentiates it from other models, AECI's portfolio of energy sources, current supply-chain issues with the US railroad system, the potential for new technology that is both reliable and less land intensive than solar, the future of AECI, federal involvement generally, and the challenging summer ahead for both electricity providers and customers. Thank you to David for joining and providing some fantastic insights! We had a quick upfront discussion: Mike Bradley had two key points about the markets and the junk bond market. Colin Fenton noted WTI is now trading at a price premium to Brent and prepped us for our conversation with a few thoughts on reliability and summer price spikes.  

We had a fantastic session today about a topic we have been curious about for some time: the ties between the energy and farming/food sectors. To help us dig in, we had the pleasure of hosting Greg Horstmeier, Editor-in-Chief, and Russ Quinn, Staff Reporter, with The Progressive Farmer magazine. Greg has an extensive career in agricultural journalism with a focus on crops, chemicals, and technology. Russ's areas of focus are fertilizer and equipment which we concentrate on in our session (Russ has been writing a weekly fertilizer update since 2008). It was fascinating to hear their perspectives from the heart of America's farmland. The Progressive Farmer is based in Omaha, Nebraska and was founded with a mission of providing farmers with the instant information they need to run successful businesses. A few of the items we discussed include fertilizer prices and availability, broader farming economics, crop prices, diesel prices, long term farming outlook, the pressure for farmers to consolidate, how farming is impacted by the rise in natural gas prices, the effects of the war in Ukraine, and the challenges farming will face in the years to come. As we learned, the number one focus for farming is land and farmers are now competing for land with investment firms, urban sprawl, and wind and solar expansion. Russ also provided an overview of fertilizer prices and what has happened since the price last shot up in 2008. It was an eye-opener to the world of farming and we learned a lot in one hour. We are huge fans of Greg and Russ and appreciate them shedding light on these topics and look forward to staying connected with them. As you will hear, we are already discussing a potential additional show with Progressive Farmer's weather experts. To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted a few notable events from the past week including Aramco's rise to the largest market cap in the world, beating Apple. He then teed us up for our discussion with a look at agriculture-related stock performance. Colin Fenton shared a few insights on inflation and risk and the likelihood that the US coastal states are most at risk of recession vs. mid-continent states. Thanks to you all. We hope you enjoy! Stay tuned for a Special Edition with Associated Electric Cooperative Incorporated later this week. 

We had a global discussion today centered around China with Gabe Collins, Baker Botts Fellow in Energy & Environmental Regulatory Affairs at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy. Gabe has a fascinating background and is a Senior Visiting Research Fellow at The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and also the Co-Founder of China SignPost. He is a Permian Basin native, an expert in Chinese and Russian relations, speaks Mandarin and Russian, and has served as a researcher and China analyst at the Department of Defense. It was a fantastic session and we can't thank Gabe enough for joining us.Our discussion spanned China's zero-Covid policy, Russian / Ukraine insights, US and European energy policy, potential bumps in the road and instability for the next five years, food security concerns, Taiwan, and other geopolitical possibilities. Gabe was a trooper with our rapid-fire questions and we really enjoyed his insights.Mike Bradley kicked us off with a look at the markets and a few charts on high yield debt markets and recent OPEC headlines. Colin Fenton discussed the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia and the new inflation regime.

We were honored and delighted to host Doug Terreson today. Doug is the Chief Investment Officer of Jubilee Investments and a Board Member of Phillips 66. While difficult to summarize Doug's distinguished career in Wall Street research, he has served as the Head of Global Research for over 25 years between Evercore ISI, ISI, and Morgan Stanley. During this time, he made several big calls which signaled a change in the direction the world was going. His dynamic perspective and enthusiastic attitude were energizing. We had a wonderful visit!In our discussion, we looked at how the industry has evolved throughout Doug's career and how we may be able to predict the sector's performance in the next ten years. One of the major themes in our discussion was capital discipline and the link to strong market performance. We touch on everything from consolidation in the 90s compared to consolidation today, regulatory risk, energy private equity's explosion, the era of the super major, outside influences including OPEC+ and China, and more. It was an engaging and insightful discussion and we hope you enjoy it as much as we did!We had a quick lead-in to kick us off: Mike Bradley provided a timely earnings update and had an interesting tidbit about LNG and IG mentions in last week's earning calls. Colin Fenton reported live from Stanford University, where he is attending their Energy Solutions Week conference, and shared tidbits and a few interesting panel topics from the event.Huge thank you to Doug for sharing his time and expertise with us and thanks to you all for your support and friendship!

Dr. Andrew Latham, Vice Present Global Exploration at Wood Mackenzie, joined us today to talk through recent happenings in the global upstream oil & gas exploration market. The punchline is there is more happening than you might think.Andrew has more than 25 years of experience in technical and commercial aspects of exploration including assisting majors and independent companies in strategy development and portfolio planning. In recent years, exploration has arguably been undervalued with a push for the energy transition and with an overall restraint on spending. Andrew's recent report catalyzed today's discussion by pointing out some really interesting things are happening in this classic art of "finding more." It was so fun to be talking about exploration again!A few themes we touch on include recent industry successes/results, how dynamics around gas discoveries might be changing in the current world, and how exploration success and subsequent development actually improves the ESG profile of those operators. Today's exploration activity also gives a window into what those participants think about long-term oil market fundamentals given the extended cycle time to positive project cash flow. Thank you to Andrew for joining!Mike Bradley kicked us off with discussion around what to watch outside of energy, given we are entering the heart of earnings season along with refining margin observations. He throws in a fun takeaway from a recent shareholder proposal to Citibank. Colin Fenton and Mike both hit different aspects of European natural gas market dynamics before Colin relays observations on various asset classes relative to commodity markets and how that is influencing a number of institutional investor discussions. He also alerted us all that BP has published their Energy Outlook for 2022.

We are always delighted to hear from young people in energy and today's COBT session was a fantastic experience. This week's primary speaker is a longstanding friend and former COBT guest, Dr. Steven Koonin. Dr. Koonin is a Professor at the Stern School of Business at NYU, Nonresident Senior Fellow at AEI and the Author of "Unsettled." Prior to joining NYU, he served as the Under Secretary for Science at the U.S. Department of Energy under the Obama Administration and was formerly the Chief Scientist at BP. Today we had the pleasure of joining not only Dr. Koonin, but also a few of his students (Matt Mayeski, Alice Nuz, and Beniamin Strzelecki) for an engaging discussion around energy, climate, and the future.In our discussion with Dr. Koonin, we cover his course, the reception of "Unsettled" since its publication almost one year ago, and high-level takeaways from the IPCC's 2022 Report. Dr. Koonin's energy course is a "soup to nuts" analysis of the technology, economics, markets, regulation, public perception, and other forces shaping the future of energy. We discuss ideas, observations, and thoughts on solutions with his students and get their unique opinions on what the energy world may look like in ten years.Mike Bradley started the show with a look at equity and commodity performance from the past week as well as an analysis on the US natural gas curve, the European natural gas curve, and the potential interactions of the coal and gas markets. Colin Fenton expanded on the IMF Global Financial Stability Report from April with a handful of key takeaway points.Thank you to Dr. Koonin for arranging today's discussion at NYU and a special thank you to Matt, Alice, and Beniamin for joining the conversation! We hope you enjoy.