C.O.B. Tuesday

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Sama Bilbao y León, Director General of the World Nuclear Association ("WNA"). Sama joined the WNA as Director General in late 2020 and has had an extensive career in nuclear with over 20 years of experience in nuclear engineering and energy policy, serving in industry, academia, and international organizations. The World Nuclear Association represents the global nuclear industry to promote the industry and importantly, provide authoritative information to key organizations and political authorities. We were delighted to connect with Sama for a global nuclear discussion. It was spectacular and wide-ranging and we so enjoyed Sama’s practical nature and worldwide perspective.   To start the discussion, Sama outlined the organization’s history and current member base of over 190 members in 44 countries. The WNA’s members are responsible for most of world uranium mining, conversion, enrichment and fuel fabrication; all reactor vendors; major nuclear engineering, construction, and waste management companies, and much of the world’s nuclear generation. We discuss how the perception of nuclear energy has changed since Sama joined in 2020 and the organization’s key areas of focus including working with policy makers and market designers globally to develop pragmatic policies for low-carbon energy sources, engaging the finance community to support profitable nuclear projects, and developing a strong global supply chain and talent pool. Sama shares her perspective on the state of nuclear in almost every part of the world, the opportunities for nuclear beyond electricity, financing and funding, novel applications, and the global supply chain. During the discussion, Sama mentions the periodic forecasts the WNA performs (the World Nuclear Association Fuel Report), linked here. Sama is one of the original founders of the North American Young Generation in Nuclear (linked here) and we touch on the importance of drawing new talent and fostering diversity, inclusivity and equity within the global nuclear community. We also cover nuclear power in the developing world and the opportunity for nuclear power to serve as a catalyst for social and economic development with collaboration between nuclear organizations and development banks. For more nuclear news, the World Nuclear News website is linked here. The entire discussion with Sama left us more bullish on the potential for greater use of nuclear power globally.   The Veriten team kicked off the show: Mike Bradley highlighted two key economic stats this week (June CPI & PPI) which could influence interest rate policy at the July 26th FOMC meeting. He also noted the recent trade higher in WTI crude oil price (higher end of its recent $65-$75/bbl. trading band) due to OPEC’s & Saudi’s commitment to maintain their respective production cuts through August as well as China taking additional economic stimulus steps. He noted that these actions have shifted both Brent and WTI structure from contango back to backwardation. Mike flagged last week’s energy equity sector outperformance and noted a few recent interesting equity market developments including an upcoming Nasdaq 100 rebalance (July 24th) which could result in temporary weakness in several of its largest AI/Tech equity members. He also noted another construction setback for the Equitrans Mountain Valley Pipeline and wrapped up by highlighting Oklo Inc. (an advanced fission technology company) announcing a deal to go Public via Merger with AltC Acquisition Corp. (a Sam Altman led SPAC). Oklo’s press release is

We are very pleased today to be sending you a special 4th of July COBT. For our Canadian friends, we hope you had a fantastic Canada Day this past Saturday. For all of you celebrating the 4th today, we hope the baseball, hot dogs and apple pie are all flowing! With some grilling of course!   For today’s special show, we were delighted to host our dear friend Rob West. Rob is the fascinating Founder and Lead Analyst at Thunder Said Energy. His background includes research at Redburn and Stanford C. Bernstein before he struck out on his own in 2019 to start Thunder Said. He has some of the most unique impressions, observations, and analysis on the changing energy world and we were delighted to have him. What we can also add is that we had the great honor of visiting with him live in Estonia on Sunday as part of the lead-in to today’s discussion. Getting to know Rob has been and continues to be great fun.   Today’s crew included Mike Bradley and Arjun Murti. With this being a critical half-year mark, Mike took some time in the lead-in to review market and energy sector statistics, changes in oil and natural gas rig counts, OPEC’s plans for cuts in production, and the significant market cap of tech giants compared to energy. Arjun chimed in and told his family’s remarkable story of coming to America and living the American dream. The story resonates as loud as ever on a day like today. Arjun also reminded us all of how "the energy transition needs to transition" to being one focused on the many billions of people outside of America, the US and Canada seeking the freedom and prosperity that comes from available reliable energy. Overall, Mike and Arjun really got us going as we turned to Rob.   The discussion with Rob today centered around a handful of key topics. First, his continued concern that we need to achieve energy surplus if we are ever going to achieve real decarbonization. His fear now, like ours, is that we are not only not heading towards energy surplus but we are instead headed for more energy shortages. Second, we discuss his latest thinking around AI and how it might be the answer to many of the world’s supply chain and logistical and even technological problems. AI is clearly the new new thing and it was really fun kicking it around with Rob. As a third big topic, Rob has more than a few thoughts about his adopted country Estonia, including the latest from its neighbor Russia. He tells the gripping story of how the recent events with Wagner were perceived in Estonia, and reminds us all how Estonia resisted EU efforts to get the country to switch to Russian natural gas back in the day. As we wrapped up, and as part of our 4th of July and overall "freedom and independence" theme, we reference a paper Rob penned on how energy (oil) supply determined the fate of so much of World War Two (available here). On this day when we pause to say thank you for our freedom, reflecting on the role of energy in national security seemed super appropriate. Rob’s article on the war and oil’s role is fantastic.   As you might recall, Rob has joined us on COBT before. The first time on January 4, 2022 (episode linked here) and more recently on November 20, 2022 (episode linked here). We don’t expect you to go back and listen/watch those, but some of you are becoming COBT history buffs so we at least want to give you that chance!   The first half of the year has been both eventful and stimulating. We count 32 COBT segments, 26 Super-Spiked pieces from Arjun, 8 Gener8 podcasts with Brett and Jeff, and 25 Market Wraps from Mike. Every week we feel like we get a little bit

Today we had the pleasure of hosting John Bear, CEO of MISO (Midcontinent Independent System Operator), for a fantastic discussion. John has served as CEO since 2009 and joined the organization in 2004. In his 30+ years of executive leadership in the utility industry, John formerly served as the President of Reliant Resources, on the President’s Nuclear Energy Advisory Council, and is currently the Chair of the Board of Directors for the Energy Systems Network along with other notable board positions including EPRI. MISO is a non-profit organization with a unique member base that serves 45 million Americans and Canadians from the Gulf of Mexico to Manitoba. We were thrilled to visit with John to learn more about MISO’s history and future, along with getting John’s perspective on what it’s like to operate a grid of MISO’s scale today.    John first provides background on the team at MISO, their market, envisioning the grid of the future, and operating reliably and efficiently. We discuss the diversity of use in their coverage area and the advantage of diversity in weather, how operating and managing a grid has changed, John’s perspective on adding large amounts of solar and wind, and the regulatory and supply chain issues delaying installation of new assets. We cover MISO’s current energy supply mix and the risks associated with shutting down dispatchable plants too quickly when adding intermittent sources to the mix, the new seasonal MISO capacity market, growth in electricity demand over the next twenty years, MISO’s Reliability Imperative program to address generation and transmission challenges, and the role for natural gas in MISO’s future. We also discuss the paramount importance of reliability and affordability and the potential of advanced nuclear supply. It was a thought-provoking discussion and we’re thankful to John for joining us and to the team at MISO for the important work they’re doing.   Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting the chaotic events in Russia over the weekend. He flagged strong economic stats yesterday (new home sales and consumer confidence) as examples of what may lead to further FED rate increases. He noted crude prices are currently dominated by economic issues rather than geopolitics and that 12-month time spreads (Dec-Dec) are at their lowest backwardation levels this year, which could be predicting a 2H’23 supply deficit not as wide as many hoped. He wrapped up by highlighting a trend where major electric utilities are divesting/selling their unregulated renewables businesses to focus exclusively on their regulated electric utility business. Jeff Tillery chimed in with his observations following the Russian events and noted the increasing awareness the general population has about the importance of grid operators.   Thanks again to John for a wonderful discussion and thanks to you all!

Today we had the very interesting opportunity to visit with Professor Jesse Jenkins of Princeton University. Jesse is an Assistant Professor with a joint appointment in Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering and the Andlinger Center for Energy and Environment. He has an extensive background in engineering systems and technology, getting his Ph.D. at MIT and his undergraduate degree in Computer and Information Science at the University of Oregon. He leads Princeton’s ZERO Lab (Zero-Carbon Energy Systems Research and Optimization Lab), a research group focused on evaluating carbon-free energy systems using optimization modeling in terms of policy, engineering, and economics. We were thrilled to spend time with him and get a chance to better understand what has gone into the team’s work as well as the outputs (by energy flavor) their work implies is possible. Importantly, Jesse and his team believe we can rebuild and expand our electricity system by 2050 but still do so within the acceptable boundaries of reliability and cost. Jesse and his team also believe (and highlight) we can avoid a significant amount of premature deaths associated with air pollution by embracing the future suggested by their energy models.   In our conversation, Jesse first provides background on his research focus and the modeling tools his team has built to understand how to best push the energy system forward using new technologies and how to develop policies that push our energy system towards a zero-carbon outcome in 2050. Jesse and his team’s research have been highly influential in the climate and energy policy debates that led to the passage of the IRA, so it was truly a thrill to connect with him. His team has identified five pathways to Net-Zero, all with significant reliance on wind and solar and to varying degrees of other flavors. We discuss reliability and cost, the challenges and execution risks involved in implementing new technologies at scale, and the sensitivity analysis Jesse’s team conducted to identify key factors driving the cost and composition of the system. We touch on considerations around efficient spending and the scale of investment required, the difficulty of states managing their energy infrastructure differently, “accountability” when the power isn’t available, the role of hydrogen and its potential impact on the grid, as well as the Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit. We had a hard time ending the discussion and, for our final question, asked Jesse what technology he is most excited to see make progress in the next ten years. As you will hear, he is very excited about the potential for EVs. Please take a minute and review these pieces of work to better understand the scenarios Jesse describes. We can’t thank him enough for joining us and greatly enjoyed the conversation. We also told him to send some of those energy-curious Princeton grads our way!   Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting the FED could be pressured to continue hiking rates based on strong economic reports and noted crude oil prices continue to trade in a tight range due to an ongoing battle between financial and physical crude markets. He further mentioned that broader equity market volatility is low and that equity markets are technically overbought as momentum investors continue to chase for fear of missing out. He then flagged several key events and recent M&A deals, as well as ERCOT’s warning to residents to conserve power this week. Brett Rampal also joined and added his power perspective to the discussion.   Thank you, as always, for your support and friendship!

For today’s COBT, we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend and award-winning columnist Liam Denning. Liam is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering the energy sector and was previously with the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times. He has nearly twenty years of experience covering energy and has experience in energy investment banking and consulting. We were thrilled to connect with Liam to discuss his recent article, “Hiding an Army at the Top of the World.” The article touches on several timely and important factors including military forces, geopolitics, the climate, the potential for greater access to Arctic trade routes, and oil and gas as well as broader resources development in the region. Liam first provides background on how he got involved with the Army and the interesting connection he formed with a war photographer interested in the Arctic. For the story, the two partnered to provide on-the-ground reporting on the Army’s activities in Alaska. We discuss the increasing accessibility of the Arctic due to warming and the related geopolitical implications, Liam’s experience visiting the US Army’s Northern Warfare Training Center in Alaska, and the challenges of operating in the harsh Arctic environment. We also cover the recent debates around oil and gas development in Alaska in light of Russia’s aggressive plans in the Arctic, the Chinese perspective and the involvement of other countries in the Arctic including Norway, Finland, and Canada. Liam shares his perspective on the changes he’s witnessed in the oil and gas industry over the past fifteen years and the importance of adapting to maintain relevance and his view on the role of major oil companies in the energy transition. It was a fascinating conversation and we want to thank Liam for joining us. To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted that May CPI printed slightly below consensus while core CPI printed slightly above consensus. He noted traders will be focused on the Wednesday morning PPI print and afternoon FOMC Rate Decision, where odds favor the FED temporarily pausing rate hikes. He then flagged that Saudi’s announcement last week of a 1mmbpd crude oil production cut (set for July) has not been enough to stabilize crude oil. He noted several crosscurrents that are influencing this crude oil volatility, all of which are challenging whether this current weakness is physical or financial related. He wrapped by noting Shell’s Capital Markets Day on Wednesday will be a focus for investors as the first formal opportunity for Shell’s new management to lay out their end of decade vision, which could provide a roadmap to narrowing the 2-3 multiple point valuation discount to the US oil majors. Arjun Murti built on some of Mike’s themes and highlighted the difference in energy perspectives between the UK, Europe, the US, and the rest of the world. He also teed up the discussion of the role of the oil and gas industry outside of its core, prepping us for our discussion with Liam. We are eager to see what Liam writes next and hope you find this topic as interesting as we do. Thanks to you all!

Today we had the pleasure of visiting with Thomas Fox, President and Director of Innovation at Highwood Emissions Management. Thomas has an impressive academic and commercial background in emissions and from our previous interactions with him, we knew he could tackle the issues in a measured way that would help us all. While obtaining his Ph.D., Thomas invented LDAR-Sim (Leak Detection and Repair Simulator) – it is now used widely by industry, regulators, and innovators to approve new technologies and understand how to deploy them. Headquartered in Calgary, Highwood works with producers, technology solution providers, and regulators to tackle the challenge of emission management solutions. Our discussion centered around an in-depth presentation by Thomas. In the presentation, Thomas covers the multiple motivations for why oil and gas companies are paying more attention to emissions, the complexity of measuring emissions and the technology involved, how to reduce emissions and get the best value for your spend, how to prove that you’ve reduced emissions (and get the credit for it), and how to prepare for the future and the future of the emissions monitoring landscape. After Thomas’s presentation, we discuss how emissions will be factored into M&A activity, where the intensity of emissions is highest, how companies analyze opportunities to decarbonize vs. the cost of mitigation, and the competitive technology landscape. As you will hear, Thomas anticipates methane from oil and gas in North America will be largely solved in the next five years. We want to thank Thomas for joining us today and for providing such a detailed analysis. Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that last week, traders were focused on two macro events, the OPEC+ meeting and the US Debt Ceiling Deal. He flagged OPEC+ agreed to cut crude production by 1mmbpd, with Saudi Arabia taking on all the cuts starting in July. Since October 2022, OPEC quota reductions total ~3mmbpd and the recent cuts primarily relate to 2H’23 demand concerns. Mike also flagged global S/D deficit estimated for 2H’23 is ~1.5mmbpd, and that these additional production cuts would ensure global inventories draw substantially in 2H’23 and should provide a crude oil floor. He then noted the US debt ceiling deal initially boosted bonds, commodities, and equities, but there hasn’t been follow through since. Mike wrapped by noting the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is trading at historically low levels, indicating equity markets are dialing in low risk levels, and that energy companies pursuing aggressive buybacks may want to consider retaining more cash on their balance sheets for future opportunities. Todd Scruggs joined for today’s discussion and added his thoughts around a recent Goldman Sachs report that lowers the odds of a recession, along with a Wall Street Journal article discussing ESG proposals to address scope 3 emissions and the vote outcomes. He also noted the equity market breadth remains narrow, with buying centered on a handful of AI/tech related equities.We learned a lot in our conversation with Thomas and hope you will find it as useful and informative as we did. Our best to you all!

Today we had the pleasure of visiting with Pavel Molchanov, Managing Director of Renewable Energy and Clean Technology Research at Raymond James. Pavel joined Raymond James as an Associate 20 years ago and actually first began coverage of the new energy space in 2006. His team currently covers all aspects of sustainable-themed technologies including solar, wind, biomaterials, electric vehicles, hydrogen, power storage, grid modernization, water technology, and more. We were excited to connect with Pavel and get his perspective on stocks, investors, trends, technologies and transition public policy. In the discussion, we cover the broad space that Pavel and his team observe. In our conversation, Pavel first provides a few of his big-picture observations on the energy space and how it has changed in the course of his career. We discuss the future of coal in particular and its role in the global energy system, the various energy sources and assumptions that would be required to entirely phase out coal, and the potential increase in energy costs associated with transitioning away from coal and the impact on economic development. Pavel shares his perspective on the different growth rates and dynamics between the clean tech sector and oil and gas, and the challenges clean tech companies face to drive adoption and become more cost competitive. We also discuss the large number of clean energy stocks that went public during COVID-19, ESG in the clean technology universe, investor attitudes, the Raymond James investor base, and more. The discussion ended up being a fascinating blend of the global energy system and the changes underway, and how all that shows up in individual stocks. We are grateful to Pavel for his time and insights, but are particularly appreciative of his “ask me anything” approach to the whole conversation. Thank you again, Pavel! Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that commodity and equity markets didn’t respond as positively as many had hoped for given news of a tentative debt ceiling agreement over the weekend. Given current select Republican rumblings, markets are now going to wish to see solid evidence that the current tentative deal can obtain passage before the end of this week. He highlighted that the upcoming OPEC meeting on June 4th could be one of the more important meetings in quite some time given that Saudi’s Oil Minister (warning oil speculators) and Russia’s Oil Minister (saying no added production cuts) seem to be messaging differently when they should be showing unity. Todd Scruggs also joined for today’s discussion and added his insights and questions to the discussion. Thank you, as always, for your support and friendship!

As we head into Memorial Day Weekend, we are excited to share this Special Edition with Brigadier General Kevin Ryan (U.S. Army Retired). During his service with the Army, Kevin served in air and missile defense, intelligence, and political-military policy areas in Europe, Korea, and Iraq. Kevin was formerly head of the Moscow office of the POW/MIA Commission and served as Senior Regional Director for Slavic States in the Office of Secretary of Defense and as Defense Attaché to Russia. He is currently an Associate Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and recently wrote an article entitled “ Why Putin Will Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine.” With Kevin’s background and experience, we were very interested in visiting with him to discuss Russia broadly.   In our conversation, Kevin first provides background on the current dynamics between Russia and Ukraine. After a year of war, Russia currently occupies about 20% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. As Ukraine pushes back, Kevin suggests that if conventional escalation fails to stop Ukraine’s success, Russia may turn to other weapons, with nuclear weapons being the most likely choice. We discuss the potential methods Putin could employ, including a demonstration or the use of tactical nuclear weapons, and Putin’s efforts to convince the Russian people of the significance of the threat against Russia and the broader narrative he is constructing. While using a nuclear weapon would be unthinkable, Kevin argues that from a Russian perspective, it would be seen as a means for Putin to change the perception of Russia’s military strength and create fear in the rest of the world. You will also hear Kevin discuss Putin beginning to make the “Truman argument” for using nuclear weapons with his own people. In terms of proactive measures the United States and other nations can take, Kevin reiterates the importance of making it clear to Russia the catastrophic consequences of using nuclear weapons, preparations for addressing the medical and decontamination issues, and the possibility of providing Putin with an exit strategy to avoid the repercussions of his actions. While the use of a nuclear weapon is a hypothetical scenario, it is certainly extremely serious. We also discuss Putin’s motivations and the dynamics within the Kremlin, Putin’s platform of restoring Russian pride and the implications of his potential failure in the conflict, as well as the role of countries like China in the situation. It was a serious and thoughtful discussion.   We greatly appreciate Kevin’s time and perspective, as well as the work the Belfer Center is doing. For the extra curious, we have linked some of the best articles we have found on the Ukraine war below.   We hope you have a safe and happy Memorial Day. Like you, we are most thankful for and respectful of the brave men and women who have made the ultimate sacrifice for our freedom. God bless you and God bless them.

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Takajiro Ishikawa in our office in Houston for a sweeping discussion of the technologies and broad topics influencing the future of energy. Tak is the President and CEO of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries America (MHIA). MHIA has 10,000 employees in the US spread over 66 locations and accounts for 20% of MHI’s global business. Tak is a seasoned executive with over thirty years of experience in the industry in both Tokyo and Houston, and since April 2022 has been leading MHIA’s efforts to deliver innovative and integrated solutions to the world. We were thrilled to visit with Tak.   In our conversation, Tak first provided fascinating background on the history of MHI and its formation 150 years ago to lead Japan’s industrial revolution. MHI’s formation has everything to do with Japan’s energy, industrial and supply chain security, something that every country is increasingly concerned about today. We split our time with Tak talking about MHI and Japan as a whole. It was fascinating.   As you will hear, Japan is by far the largest importer of LNG globally, and MHI was responsible for delivering a large portion of the LNG ships and shipyards in Japan. We touch on the intricacies of Japan’s location and the geological attributes, the limited options they have for solar and wind power, as well as the sensitivities around nuclear power in the country. Tak shares his perspective on how MHI is structurally organized, given their massive footprint, and how the company is pivoting from working on technologies that emit carbon to helping those same technologies reduce carbon emissions. We touch on the differences between the US and Japan in terms of deploying renewables at scale and MHIA’s hydrogen projects in Utah. We also cover Japan’s partnerships with other countries and technologies, the IRA’s global impact, Japan’s declining population, and much more. We ended with Tak’s long-term vision for MHIA. Overall, it was a riveting discussion and we greatly appreciate Tak’s enthusiasm for the industry and the future.   Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that bond, commodity, and equity markets have been directionless due to the current U.S. debt ceiling talks and will likely continue this pattern until an agreement is reached. He also highlighted two upstream deals this week (one all cash and one all stock) and last week’s large midstream deal. He highlighted these deals to drive home the point that energy consolidation will continue to be robust (especially upstream consolidation) because a key investor concern, especially as it relates to the sustainability of significant return of/on capital programs beyond the next 2-3 years, are quality and quantity of future inventory. Arjun Murti prepped us for our discussion with Tak with an overview of Japan’s energy landscape and unique approach to secure a diversity of energy commodities, further driving the idea that no one model fits all.   We want to thank Tak for sharing his time and perspective with us today. Our best to you all!

It is our honor to welcome back Governor Mike Dunleavy of Alaska for today’s session. We hosted the Governor on COBT in July of 2022 and had much to cover since our last visit. Gov. Dunleavy moved to Alaska in 1983 and quickly became a proud local serving as a teacher, principal, and superintendent in Arctic communities before his 5-year term as a State Senator from 2013 – 2018. He was elected Governor in 2018 and was re-elected last November. We were thrilled to visit with the Governor to discuss energy in Alaska and preview the Alaska Sustainable Energy Conference taking place next week in Anchorage with an exciting lineup of speakers and topics.   We begin the discussion with an update from Gov. Dunleavy on the current energy outlook in Alaska and the state’s unique conditions that allow for a plethora of energy types including oil, gas, biomass, nuclear, coal, geothermal, on and offshore wind, tidal, and solar. Gov. Dunleavy shares his perspective on the Willow project and the state’s support for energy production, including LNG and Alaska’s relationships with Asia. We then discuss the Sustainable Energy Conference and some of the keynote speakers including Dr. Dan Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global, Rahm Emanuel, United States Ambassador to Japan, and David Turk, Deputy Secretary, U.S. Department of Energy to name a few. The conference will examine the future of energy in Alaska and around the world, the intersection of geopolitical upheaval with food and energy security, advancements in renewable power, transmission, storage, and more. We also touch on geopolitics and security, minerals and mining, Alaska’s nuclear adoption, labor markets, the opportunities in Alaska, and the all-in approach the state is taking. We ended with Gov. Dunleavy’s thoughts for what the world looks like in 2024 with the next US Presidential election. It was wonderful to visit with the Governor and hear the progress Alaska has made over the past ten months.   Mike Bradley kicked us off and highlighted that over the last couple of weeks, bond, commodity, and equity markets have been directionless due to the U.S. debt ceiling showdown. He further indicated that a favorable debt ceiling resolution could result in some outsized gains but should prove transitory. He also pointed out talks this week for a potential U.S. SPR crude oil purchase in August (3 million sour barrels) which is peanuts compared to the 270 million barrels that have been sold from the SPR over the last two years. Mike also highlighted the recent natural gas rally and the potential for additional Haynesville rig drops by end of summer. He concluded the conversation by highlighting ongoing midstream consolidation activity. Jeff Tillery added to Mike’s midstream comments with an observation on diversifying assets in North America as they mature. Brett Rampal also joined and peppered in his nuclear perspective in the discussion.   We want to thank the Governor for his time. If every Governor knew energy as well as Governor Dunleavy, the country would be a better place. We hope you enjoy the discussion as much as we did and consider attending the Alaska Sustainable Energy Conference!