C.O.B. Tuesday

We were honored this past week to welcome back renowned author Walter Isaacson for a Special Edition COBT episode. Walter is a Professor of History at Tulane University and a Distinguished Fellow at the Aspen Institute. He is also a good friend and someone with whom we are always thrilled to visit.   In his wide-ranging career, Walter has served as the Editor of TIME magazine, Chairman and CEO at CNN, and CEO of the Aspen Institute. As you may know, Walter has previously written on other fascinating people including Leonardo da Vinci, Steve Jobs and Henry Kissinger. Most recently, he has published his latest work entitled "Elon Musk." Mike Bradley, Todd Scruggs and I were so excited to visit with Walter and hear his unique insights on his time spent with Elon, discuss the overall process of researching and writing the book, and dig in to unique anecdotes about Tesla, SpaceX, and Twitter (X). We three read the book in preparation for the discussion and can absolutely recommend it. We learned a ton!   Walter begins our conversation by sharing his personal interest in writing Elon’s biography as the next feature in his series of books highlighting individuals ushering in a new era. Walter shares the course of events that sparked the book, starting with a two-hour phone call followed by a tweet from Elon that confirmed his appointment as his biographer. Elon’s tweet put Walter on the roller coaster of being by Elon’s side for two years, witnessing everything from business meetings and interactions with his family to rocket launches and late night factory line visits. We discuss the internal purpose and sense of mission that drives Elon, the urgency he expects from everyone around him, and his unique appetite for risk. Walter and the book take us on a journey from Elon’s childhood days in South Africa to emigrating to Penn to PayPal to SpaceX and up to and including his experience buying Twitter. With a lot of stops along the way! Walter shares the risks Elon took with building and launching the first at-scale private rocket company and the complicated situation he found himself in with Starlink satellites, especially in Ukraine. For those of you who are interested, we previously had the opportunity to visit with Trey Mendez, Mayor of Brownsville and tour SpaceX and found the SpaceX stories particularly interesting (episode linked here). When we weren’t talking SpaceX and everything that came with it, we of course discussed Tesla, Elon’s plunge into AI, what Elon refers to as "the algorithm," and many other aspects of one of the world’s most impactful people. We want to thank Walter profusely for sharing his time and thoughts with us. He clearly had a fascinating firsthand experience pulling together what is an absolutely gripping read.   For those of you in Houston, Brazos Bookstore in partnership with Halliburton Labs and Veriten is hosting a live open-to-the-public discussion with Walter on Sunday, November 12th the Ballroom at Bayou Place at 5:00 PM CT. Tickets must be purchased in advance and are available linked here.   We look forward to seeing Walter in Houston and hope you enjoy the book and discussion as much as we did! Our best to you all.

Chris Birdsall, Director of Economics and Energy at Exxon Mobil, discusses long-term energy demand, forecasts vs. scenarios, emissions outlook compared to Paris-aligned goals, global energy demand growth, renewables and natural gas generation, and challenges in balancing human development with emissions reduction efforts.

We have a Special Edition COBT episode to start the week focused on recent events in Israel. Mike Bradley and I were pleased to be joined by Mark Medin, Executive Vice President of the UJA-Federation of New York, to discuss the organization’s efforts in aiding Israel, providing assistance to the Jewish community broadly, and sharing the UJA’s informational resources with all of us. Through good friends, we first learned about the UJA a couple of years ago and have been subscribed to their mailing list ever since. Just after the attacks on October 7th, through their communications we became instantly aware of how connected they are to the situation as the CEO of the UJA was on the ground in Israel (his first message after the attacks is linked here). Like many of you, we’ve wondered how we can be helpful and get involved with humanitarian support. We immediately thought of the UJA as a resource and are so pleased they joined us on COBT to share their knowledge of the situation. The UJA-Federation’s work has a massive footprint and their reach spans 70 countries to care for people in need, promote justice and inclusion, respond to antisemitism and global crises, and strengthen Jewish life. In response to the Hamas terrorist attacks on October 7th, the UJA-Federation has remarkably already raised $100 million for the pressing needs of the people of Israel. In our discussion, we first ask Mark for his perspective on what it’s like on the ground in Israel and how the UJA-Federation is supporting humanitarian efforts with trauma care, relocation assistance, travel, food, housing, clothing, and more. We discuss the organization’s swift response in sending financial support (they have allocated $29 million to various charities already), the impact of false media claims on public opinion, understanding the West Bank, the bad actors versus the majority of peace-seeking citizens in Palestine, concern with global markets’ calmness since the attack, other countries’ involvement and history, the coming together of Jewish communities globally to stand up for the people of Israel, and more. The continuing humanitarian needs remain immense and dire. We greatly appreciate Mark and the UJA-Federation for their work and for sharing their important perspective. The UJA-Federation has several resources available on their website (linked here) to find information on recent developments, community events and local resources, along with the organization’s emergency fund for Israel (linked here). Veriten has made a donation. We hope you find the discussion informative and also helpful in understanding the tragic events of the last two plus weeks. Our best to you all.

We are pleased to share with you a very unique and special COBT episode that provides a glimpse into America’s proud energy past and highlights some of the great life lessons the American West and the oil patch can impart. Today we had the great pleasure of visiting with Hank True and Dave True of the True Companies. The True family is celebrating the 75th anniversary of True Companies, which was founded by Dave and Hank’s father, Dave True, Jr. in 1948. True Companies includes the following businesses: True Oil, True Drilling, True Ranches, Toolpushers Supply Company, Black Hills Trucking, Measurement Services LLC, Bridger Pipeline LLC, Eighty-Eight Oil LLC, Equitable Oil Purchasing Company, Hilltop Bank, Flowstate, and Brick and Bond, in addition to numerous other ranches and properties. The 75th anniversary celebrations are being held in Houston, Oklahoma City, and the Company’s headquarters city of Casper, Wyoming. The significance of the Company to the state of Wyoming and to energy can clearly be seen in the description of the Company’s anniversary from this summer’s Congressional Record, linked here.   You’ll hear many interesting points in our discussion. True Companies is an extremely large and complex organization, with approximately 1,150 employees in eleven states. Their business includes several aspects of energy including pipelines, oil and gas, oilfield services, technology, as well as agriculture and banking. What drew us to the Trues was not just the 75th anniversary but their reputation for leadership, involvement in the community, and their extensive and rich history. Large family-owned companies are becoming more rare in today’s modern world and it is refreshing to see the mindset of a private enterprise as they face challenges and take advantage of opportunities. Hank and Dave’s brotherhood/partnership is fascinating to watch as they reflect on the love and respect they have for their parents, how their parents raised them, lessons from summers spent in a modest cabin, and as they share wisdom learned from now three generations of an energy company and the ruggedness and toughness that was instilled in them. Their family’s story is a reminder of the American dream, building something from nothing, and of the energy industry’s grit and determination. It was a fantastic conversation and we are most honored the True brothers would share their reflections with us.   Mike Bradley kicked us off by sharing concern over global markets as they remain remarkably calm despite the Israeli-Hamas war. He highlighted that 10-year bond yields have surged from Friday’s close of 4.6% due to strong retail sales stats and are pushing towards trading highs of 4.9%. While bond traders expect the FED will pause rate hikes at the upcoming November 1st FOMC meeting, hotter than expected economic stats could change their calculus. He noted WTI crude oil prices have seen a modest increase over the past five trading days, reaching around $87/bbl., and that crude oil price volatility seems to be influenced weekly by demand or supply concerns, with this week’s supply concerns dominating including Cushing and SPR crude oil storage levels. He flagged the Biden Administration surprised the market by announcing an easing of Venezuelan oil sanctions and further noted crude oil traders are much more concerned with what direction the Biden Administration might take on Iranian crude oil sanctions. He wrapped by highlighting Oil Services Q3 reporting begins this week with Liberty Energy and Schlumberger reporting this week. Jeff Tillery also joined and added his perspective and questions in our discussion.   We were delighted and very thankful to visit with Hank and Dave. As we shared at the end, everyone we’ve come across that knows the True family holds them in high re

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Christopher Mohajer for a discussion centered around batteries and battery technology. Chris serves as the Director of Battery Technology Equity Research at U.S. Capital Advisors (USCA) and has a background in technical sales, having previously worked with Digatron Power Electronics, a supplier of battery test and formation equipment. Before that, he held several roles at the California Clean Energy Fund. Last year, Chris and the USCA team published a comprehensive report highlighting batteries as a pivotal component for decarbonization. We were thrilled to visit with Chris and discuss the latest developments and trends in the world of batteries. Our discussion today started with Chris’s background and what drew him to batteries originally. It was here that he made his light-hearted comment around being the “accidental battery guy.” At the heart of today’s discussion, Chris walked us through about 15 slides pulled from his and his team’s work on batteries. The presentation slides are linked here. In the presentation, Chris covers battery history from lead acid to today, the different battery chemistries, the metrics for measuring battery performance, the tradeoffs between performance, cost, and safety, cathode and anode technology developments, and the surprisingly lengthy duration to bring new technology to market. Chris also shares insights on battery production, the battery supply chain, and the importance of permitting and potential for the US to develop its own battery supply chain if the right conditions are met. Whether you are new to batteries or well-versed, Chris’s overview is very likely to be interesting to you. Today’s other discussion topics included mining challenges, battery market growth, battery innovations, proposed US battery factories, utility-scale storage, the role of batteries on the grid, public equity investor sentiment, and more. We ended with asking Chris what he thinks the future of batteries will look like in ten years. He is definitely bullish on their role in our future energy systems. We want to thank Chris for joining us today and for providing a great and detailed overview. We learned a lot and look forward to continuing to follow Chris and his team’s insights. Mike Bradley kicked us off by pointing out the remarkable stability in global markets since the breakout of the Israeli war with Hamas. He observed that both US bond and equity markets have traded higher, and that equity market volatility has actually fallen. He flagged that 10-year bond yields have pulled back from Friday’s close of 4.8%, are trading at ~4.65%, for what looks to be a temporary rush to safety. Mike also noted that this week’s CPI & PPI prints will be important in determining whether the FED will pause/raise rates at their November FOMC meeting. He highlighted the modest increase in WTI crude oil price this week (~$3.00/bbl.) and also indicated that it had underperformed most trader’s expectations. He noted that crude oil traders will be very focused on Cushing weekly inventory levels, with consensus looking for a slight build, but that an unexpected draw could push WTI price/time spreads much higher. He rounded out the conversation by flagging that Q3 reporting is set to begin mid-next week with a handful of oil service companies. Todd Scruggs also joined today’s discussion and shared a few observations upfront, including both positive developments as well as potential challenges in battery technology and manufacturing. We greatly enjoyed the conversation with Chris and hope you enjoy it as much as we did. Our best to you all!

It was our honor today to welcome General David Petraeus (US Army Retired), Partner at KKR and Chairman of the KKR Global Institute. General Petraeus’ distinguished military career spans over 37 years of service, marked by six consecutive commands as a general officer including leadership of the US-led coalitions in both Iraq during the surge and Afghanistan. Following his military service, General Petraeus served as Director of the CIA during a period of significant achievements in the global war on terror before joining KKR in 2013. In addition to his roles at KKR, General Petraeus serves as a board member, strategic advisor, and lecturer. He has earned numerous honors, awards, and decorations for his outstanding service to our country. General Petraeus has also recently co-authored a new book with British historian Andrew Roberts entitled “Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine.” We are thrilled to have had the opportunity to visit with General Petraeus about the book, which is set to be officially published on October 17th. Our team read advanced copies and found it to be thoroughly insightful. As you will hear in today’s episode, we covered a broad range of topics. General Petraeus first shares the inspiration behind his book and the critical role of strategic leadership in both military and business contexts. As the title suggests, “Conflict” explores the evolution of conflict and General Petraeus draws on his own experiences including his studies of Vietnam and his direct involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan. As you will hear, General Petraeus refers to a strategic leadership model developed for the Belfer Center at Harvard, which can be found linked here. We touch on the changes the Army made following Vietnam and the lessons learned there, the importance of leadership during key inflection points whether it’s in the oil patch or in combat, and how to create a culture that offers what General Petraeus refers to as “reasonable feedback.” We also discuss KKR’s investing strategies as well as the General’s experience stepping out of the normal military path to attend graduate school and the insights he was able to apply back in the military. The General walks us through geopolitical dynamics with Saudi Arabia, China, Russia, and the US, how modern technology has transformed elements of the battlefield, and the outlook for the US military today. We greatly appreciated General Petraeus’ thoughtful responses and are immensely grateful to him for sharing his time with us and for his service to our country. Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that 10-year bond yields have surged to 4.8% (a 16-year high) due to worries that the FOMC will be holding interest rates higher and for longer. He flagged WTI crude oil price seems to have temporarily settled in at roughly $90/bbl., and that traders will be closely monitoring the October 4th OPEC meeting and Cushing oil inventory levels. He wrapped by noting two seminal events that occurred early last week that could have a huge and lasting impact on global energy transition goals, including NextEra Energy Partners (NEP) stock price plunge and the IEA’s updated Net Zero Roadmap report. Arjun Murti built on Mike’s comments on recent corrections in the new energy sector by flagging the risk associated with organizations like GFANZ pushing financial institutions, capital markets, and insurance companies to make decisions based on emissions metrics, potentially leading to unfavorable loans and policies in the new energy sector and insufficient investment in traditional energy. We hope you all enjoy the discussion as much as we did and consider adding “Conflict” to your reading list. Our best to you all! 

On Wednesday in Denver, we had the pleasure of joining Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. (UC Boulder) and Chris Wright, CEO and Chairman of Liberty Energy for a live discussion as part of Liberty Energy’s “Liberty and Energy” Presentation Series. Roger is a Professor in the Environmental Studies department at the University of Colorado Boulder and the author of “The Honest Broker” substack (linked here). Roger’s work focuses on the intersection of policy and governance issues related to science, technology, environment, innovation, and sports. It was exciting to bring the Denver area community together and have a live, studio audience to discuss the current state of climate, energy and the environment broadly. To kick off the discussion, Roger walked us through a presentation with key background on the current state of science around energy and climate (slides linked here). We then dove into how the broader population might get better data and discussion around energy and climate, issues with the IPCC’s summary for policy makers, how priorities in the environmental world have shifted to focusing primarily on climate, the impact of climate alarmism on children and young adults, and how Roger approaches teaching his students to appreciate the scale and complexity of energy and electricity in the world. Roger shares examples of the “scenario wars” that are taking place, his experience being investigated by Congress, and the overwhelming need for solid data on climate from a trusted, authoritative organization that allows for open discussion. We also discuss the role of oil and gas companies in the energy world of tomorrow, the math of getting to net zero 2050, the desperate need for more energy in the developing world, the glaring opportunity for America to help power the world, and conclude with some inside scoop on Roger’s chances of joining the team with Coach Prime. As you will hear, Roger is a great explainer and wonderful thinker. We can’t thank the Liberty team enough for allowing us to be a part of it. The world needs more “Liberty and Energy” town hall gatherings! As you will hear, Roger very positively mentions a podcast with Michael Liebreich and Jim Skea (the new head) of the IPCC. The episode is linked here. As we head into the weekend, we wish you well and hope your team wins! If you do get out for a walk or otherwise have some time, we hope very much you can tune in to this Special Edition COBT. We learned a lot!

Today we were thrilled to welcome back Les Csorba, Partner in Charge of the Houston office and a member of the CEO and Board of Directors Practice focused on the energy industry at Heidrick & Struggles. Les has over 30 years of experience in executive search, leadership consulting, and executive coaching and this year marks his 25th year at the firm. The catalyst for today’s discussion is a recent report from Heidrick & Struggles entitled “Lessons from Ukraine’s wartime CEOs on leading through crisis” (linked here). It’s a fascinating look at how these CEOs have adapted under duress and how they are planning for the future. As the son of Hungarian refugees that fled the country during the Russian invasion in 1956 (more on their story and parallels to Ukraine linked here), Les is very passionate about helping the people of Ukraine. It was our pleasure to visit with Les to discuss the report, the war in Ukraine, his recent trip to Kyiv, leadership overall, and the latest trends in finding CEOs and board members.   Les first shares background on the report’s creation, his experience traveling to Kyiv last month to meet with colleagues and deliver supplies, his impressions of what life in Kyiv is really like, and the resiliency, optimism, and unity he witnessed. We discuss the broader sentiment in Eastern Europe, Heidrick & Struggles’ CEO and Board Practice group, and lessons from the report that can be applied to all leaders. Les walks us through key takeaways from the report including planning for geopolitical exposure, adapting to wartime decision-making, operating in the here and now, being decisive, and speaking with radical candor. We touch on how managements have changed since Les’ last appearance on COBT in 2021 including an increased desire for leaders that understand strategy, regulations, energy policy, and have a balanced and pragmatic approach to the energy transition. Les shares trends he’s seeing in energy boards including a shift to recruiting board members with direct experience in either energy or relevant industries, large global industrial companies’ interest in board members with experience in energy, the war for talent in both oil and gas and new energy, CEO search and succession work, and more. We ended with Les’ thoughts on President Zelenskyy and where he sees energy in ten years. The Heidrick team is to be congratulated for such an interesting and unique report.   Mike Bradley started us off by highlighting that market volatility has increased due to several lingering key issues including a spike in bond yields, a looming US government shutdown, resumption of student loan payments, a selective UAW strike, and a quarter end repositioning of mutual funds. From a commodities standpoint, he noted that WTI continues to trade around $90/bbl. due to global crude oil inventory tightness and also mentioned that Cushing crude oil inventory levels are expected to draw markedly again this week and are approaching historical absolute and seasonal lows. He ended with highlighting that bond and equity prices are both “technically” oversold, both are dialing in some heightened level of risk while these issues endure, and that a resolution of one or more of these issues could result in a temporary snapback in markets. Jeff Tillery discussed the IEA’s recently released updated net-zero roadmap, which outlines significant reductions in coal, oil, and gas demand by 2030, and will likely spur a fascinating debate about the report’s impact on decision-making regarding energy sources and cost implications. You may recall OPEC’s recent reac

We are excited to share this Special Edition with you. We had the opportunity late last week to visit with Jimmy Glotfelty, Commissioner on the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUC). Jimmy was appointed as Commissioner by Governor Abbott in 2021 following an extensive career in the energy and power public and private sectors, including Founder of Clean Line Energy, Senior Policy Advisor to US Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham, Energy Policy Director to then Texas Governor George W. Bush, Legislative Director for Congressman Sam Johnson, and Executive and Managerial roles at Calpine Corporation, ICF Consulting and Quanta Services. Jimmy was recently and additionally directed by the Governor (letter linked here) to lead a new Working Group focused on the future of nuclear energy in Texas. It was our honor not just to visit with Jimmy but to help him publicize the Working Group’s efforts in order to allow for anyone who has ideas or thoughts to aid in evaluating advanced nuclear energy to be able to share them with the Commissioner.   In our discussion, Jimmy shares background on the group’s creation and goals, Texas’ position to be a leader in nuclear energy, as well as the role of Texas communities. On Thursday, September 28th, the first public meeting will take place in Austin (details linked here) to discuss the Working Group’s proposed organizational structure, process and timeline for the coming months. Jimmy reiterated the group’s willingness to hear all opinions, including voices from underserved communities and those who are opposed to nuclear. We also discuss which other states are preparing to build nuclear sites and how nuclear can position Texas to have reliable and clean power for decades to come, how to address short-term power and transmission issues, how the Working Group will collaborate with the Federal government, the feedback Jimmy has received so far, and Jimmy’s personal interest in the cause. We ended with Jimmy’s vision for power in Texas in ten years. We are confident that Jimmy and his team are prepared for the challenge and were thrilled to spend time with him.   Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that bond markets are under pressure given the FED’s recent dialogue that interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer, which pushed the 10-year yield to 17-year high of 4.5%. From a commodities standpoint, he highlighted that Brent and WTI price were relatively unchanged on the week given that Saudi remains vigilant with crude oil production management, which is keeping global physical crude oil markets tight. He also noted that WTI could be getting additional price support due to Cushing crude oil storage levels nearing 10-year seasonal lows. He highlighted that broader equity markets were down roughly 4-5% over the last five trading days due to lingering concerns around interest rates, crude oil prices, a US government shutdown, and the UAW strike against the three largest US automakers. He also noted that two high profile IPOs have recently traded under their recent IPO price which could be a worrisome sign for equity markets. Mike wrapped by noting that the UK government looks to be pushing out the phase out date for their ICE vehicle sales from the current date of 2030 out to 2035. Brett Rampal joined and contributed his nuclear perspective and questions in the discussion.   If you are in the area, we hope you’ll consider joining the Commissioner on Thursday or tune in online. Updates on the Working Group’s progress will be available on the PUC website (linked here) under Project #55421. Thanks to you all!

Today we were delighted to host Dr. Pippa Malmgren. Pippa is an experienced economist, author, and speaker, served as an advisor to President George W. Bush, and has advised the British Cabinet and the Cabinets of several Asian nations on economic policy. She has held several significant positions throughout her career including Senior Advisor to Monaco Foundry and Avonhurst, Board Member at Premios Verdes, former Managing Director at Bankers Trust, and the author of several award-winning books. She is a founder and co-founder of tech ventures spanning robotics, cleantech, space, and more. We were thrilled to get Pippa’s perspective on current global economic trends and geopolitical events. Our discussion explored a range of topics starting with Pippa’s experience in the White House during 9/11 and her team’s challenging task of re-creating a market for US Treasuries and re-opening the NYSE. Pippa shares her outlook on today’s stress-filled geopolitical environment, the unique and often misunderstood relationship between the US and China, and why Pippa thinks the world is at a peak in geopolitical tension (and trending down from here). We discuss the potential for war between China and Taiwan, what surprises might happen there, geopolitics in Latin America including Chinese and Russian influence in the area, and the possibilities for the often-dismissed potential of space-based solar power. We then explore leadership and leaders around the world, Pippa’s latest book “The Infinite Leader,” autocracy vs. democracy, Europe’s seat at the table geopolitically, AI’s potential and the importance of the human element and creativity, and more. We ended with Pippa’s thoughts on the current culture at universities and her advice to all of us to shift from a “scarcity mindset” to the “possibility of abundance.” We look forward to continuing to follow Pippa’s work on SubStack (linked here) and can’t thank her enough for sharing her geopolitical wisdom, for stimulating our thinking, and for encouraging all of us to think outside our own boxes. Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting this week's FOMC meeting, noting that consensus was placing near zero odds for a rate hike at this meeting but roughly 50% odds of a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting. From a commodities standpoint, he highlighted that Brent and WTI prices surpassed $95/bbl. and $$92/bbl. respectively. He also noted that there was an interesting back and forth last week between the IEA (Financial Times Op-Ed from Fatih Birol linked here) and OPEC (statement linked here) regarding peak oil demand prior to 2030. He ended by highlighting that energy equities have lagged the surge in crude oil price, mostly because equity investors need to see how crude oil price trades when Saudi begins pushing crude barrels back into the market before there can be energy equity multiple expansion. Jeff Tillery shared a few observations of the public energy markets over the past 8-9 months, noting an overall trend towards normalcy in the energy sector. We greatly enjoyed the conversation with Pippa and hope you find it as interesting as we did. Thanks to you all!