Many Happy Returns

Does it pay to be an optimist?Volatile financial markets and flaws in human psychology can cause many investors to be unduly pessimistic.Yet, remaining an optimist - and remaining invested - is the surest way to achieve the unrivalled long-term returns of the stock market.Today, we discuss why optimism about investing is not only desirable but rational. And how to spot biases and alarmist thinking that can lead to destructive behaviour.And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Why hold any bonds at all?Selected linksGapminderOur World in DataA Long Bet: Brynjolfsson vs Gordon

VICE. UFO. COW. Welcome to the weird world of niche ETFs. Exchange Traded Funds are an easy way for investors to buy into a basket of stocks. The last few years has seen a proliferation of ETFs that offer investors different indices, themes, and strategies. We discuss which of these funds is worth our time, in what environments they might outperform, and how best to incorporate them in our portfolio. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: What’s the difference between ETFs and ETNs? ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

Natural gas is critical to the functioning of the European economy, used in everything from heating homes to powering industry. Russia is the continent's biggest gas supplier, and many analysts fear that President Putin might be about to turn off the gas taps. The impact of such a move could be profound, with the German Economy Minister warning of the potential for a “Lehman Brothers” moment. We look at how likely it is to happen, what the fallout could be, and what could it mean for our investments? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: What is a black swan event? ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

Leverage is borrowing money to invest. It can boost your returns in good times and amplify your losses when the market turns against you. This week we look at the different types of leveraged investments and how to employ them. We discuss the pros and cons of investing with margin loans, leveraged ETFs, and options. And the surprising evidence for using leverage to reduce retirement risk... And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: "If your broker sells your stocks in a margin call, can you be left owing more money than you invested?" Selected links Life-Cycle Investing and Leverage: Buying Stock on Margin Can Reduce Retirement Risk Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report: Leverage in the Financial Sector (May 2022)---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

Government bonds are considered the steady - perhaps even boring - investment class. But this year has seen the biggest bond crash in a generation, as inflation runs wild and central banks pretend not to panic. As if things weren’t interesting enough, the European Central Bank is concocting a new wheeze to keep bond spreads in check, the Bank of Japan is printing record-breaking amounts of money, and Russia has defaulted on its debt. We try to make sense of all this and wonder whether now might be the time to buy government bonds? And if so, which ones? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why don't governments issue perpetual bonds? ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

This year the S&P 500 has fallen over 23%. With the benefit of hindsight, what were the clues that we had reached the top at the start of 2022? And what could indicate the market has now reached a bottom and is about to resume its upward drift? Accepted wisdom says that what matters is “time in the market, not timing the market.” Is this always true? And how does it affect how we invest? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask "When stock prices fall, where does the money go?" Selected links Where does the wealth go when asset prices go down? (Noahpinion) The Buffett Indicator ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

The UK stock market has lagged global indices over the past decade and struggled to attract new companies. We look at the reasons for the underperformance and the prospects for the future. We discuss the sector composition of the UK market, with its crucial underweight in technology companies, as well as whether the dividend investing culture at many UK equity funds holds back business investment and growth. And in today's Dumb Question of the Week, we ask "How can a stock be listed on two exchanges and does it matter which one I buy?"---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

Oil has long been the lifeblood of the global economy, but what’s the new oil? The conversation dives into claims around data and artificial intelligence as potential rivals. Copper emerges as a key player in decarbonization efforts, facing fierce demand yet grappling with supply challenges. They also dissect the bizarre phenomenon of negative oil prices in 2020 and the complexities of the futures market. Join them as they explore whether these commodities are just hype or the future of investment.

There are many different risks we have to navigate as investors, from the volatility of markets to collapsing companies to our own behaviour. How we choose to respond to these risks is ultimately what will determine our success in building and preserving our wealth. This week we dig into the different types of investment risk, how best to measure and quantify them, and what strategies we can employ to protect our portfolios. And in the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask "What happens if my broker goes bankrupt?" ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

The S&P 500 has fallen to the brink of a bear market, with companies severely punished for missing their earnings forecasts. The price-to-earnings multiple has declined and market prospects look uncertain. The question everyone is asking is ‘what comes next?' We look into whether the S&P 500 is now at fair value? What events could trigger a stock market crash? And whether bonds will successfully hedge equity going forward? And in the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Why do people still reference the Dow Jones industrial average? Selected links Finviz heatmaps FactSet Earnings Insight ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns