Many Happy Returns

Markets exhale as proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada face suspension, but what about the ongoing trade frictions with China? Competition for international supply chains and pricing is heating up, particularly in the automotive sector. Dive into the effects of tariffs on American manufacturing and consumer behavior. Plus, discover how currency valuation methods like the Big Mac Index influence investment strategies amidst these evolving trade dynamics. Can investors manage risk in such volatile markets? Tune in for insights!

Explore the tumultuous factors shaping markets in 2025, including the potential effects of Federal Reserve rate changes and the impact of tariffs on US trade relations. Dive into the intriguing dynamics of AI innovations and inflated stock valuations amid shifting consumer attitudes. The rising tide of corporate bankruptcies raises eyebrows, while geopolitical tensions create ripples in high yield investments. Plus, ponder the paradox: can bad news actually turn into good news for investors?

Credit Suisse’s collapse shook the global financial system, forcing regulators into a frantic search for solutions. We're joined by Duncan Mavin, author of the new book ‘Meltdown: Scandal, Sleaze and the Collapse of Credit Suisse’ to discuss the downfall of a banking giant. And in the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: How do you stop a bank run? --- Thank you to Raisin UK for sponsoring this episode. Raisin UK is a free, easy-to-use online savings platform, with savings accounts from over 40 FSCS-protected banks and building societies. Simply register, apply to open as many accounts as you like, and manage everything with a single login. Elevate your savings game today. What's more, for a limited time only, you can receive a £100 bonus when you register and fund your first savings account with a minimum of £10,000 using the code "SAVINGS100". For more details, please visit the link: raisin.co.uk/pensioncraft ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

Simon French, Chief Economist at Panmure Liberum and writer for The Times, dives into the surge of gilt yields and its impact on UK government finances. He discusses the potential for tax increases or spending cuts while questioning if this issue is unique to the UK. The conversation also explores the Bank of England's challenges, the undervaluation of UK stocks post-Brexit, and the essential role of stable fiscal rules for long-term economic health. In a light-hearted segment, they ponder the necessity of government fiscal rules.

George Magnus, a prominent China expert and research associate at the University of Oxford, dives into the faltering engine of China's economy. He discusses the potential for a balance sheet recession, drawing parallels with Japan's economic history. The conversation highlights the tension between governmental policies and consumer demand, while exploring the reliability of China's economic statistics. Magnus also examines how global relations and demographic challenges complicate China's growth strategy, painting a complex picture of the world's second-largest economy.

Investor optimism is soaring as many Americans expect the S&P 500 to rise in 2025. The podcast examines whether this bullish sentiment signals a market bubble, while exploring the risks of high leverage in hedge funds. A discussion on the 'Walmart recession signal' reveals intriguing insights into consumer behavior and its link to economic downturns. The difference between hard and soft data is clarified, shedding light on their roles in market trends. Finally, the insights into ESG discussions and celebrations of podcast milestones add a delightful touch.

Compared to developed countries, emerging markets have rarely looked cheaper. With valuations, economic growth, and demographic trends in their favour, is now the time to invest? Or could climate change, protectionism and debt hold them back? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is South Korea an emerging market? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up, or use the following link: Sponsored Link. Terms apply - trading212.com/join/RAMIN  When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Pies & Autoinvest is an execution-only service. Not investment advice or portfolio management. Automatic investing refers to executing scheduled deposits. You are responsible for all investment and rebalancing decisions. Free shares can be fractional. Terms and fees apply. ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

Wolfgang Münchau, co-founder of Eurointelligence and author of 'Kaput: The End of the German Miracle,' delves into the decline of Germany's once-mighty economy. He discusses the troubling impacts of deindustrialization and reliance on Russian energy, as well as the stagnation in the tech sector. The conversation explores Germany's outdated economic practices, including a peculiar fear of modern technology, and why many Germans shy away from stock market investments. Münchau's insights paint a candid portrait of an economy at a crossroads.

Sensationalist media often misleads investors, pushing them to focus on irrelevant concerns. Understanding market signals is essential for long-term success. The discussion emphasizes the importance of diversification and low fees in crafting simple investment strategies. It also addresses misconceptions about investments and the rising threat of scams. Community support can help overcome investment anxiety, while aligning financial goals in relationships is crucial for successful partnerships. Ultimately, a sustainable approach to financial wellness is key.

Larry Hatheway, co-founder of Jackson Hole Economics, discusses the significant impact of political risks on investing. He argues that markets are underestimating the potential dangers of a second Trump presidency. The conversation also explores the complexities of trade deficits, the psychological biases affecting decision-making during geopolitical events, and potential investment strategies amidst market volatility. Hatheway highlights the implications of U.S. foreign trade policies and the relationship between budget deficits and economic confidence.