(0:00) Bestie intro! (1:57) Overview of the SVB collapse and bank run (17:53) Who or what is to blame? Debating venture debt (37:11) Contagion risk, second- and third-order effects, government backstops (1:00:36) What does this mean for the VC industry? Silicon Valley panic cycle, advice for founders Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg https://twitter.com/altcap Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23016.html https://s201.q4cdn.com/589201576/files/doc_downloads/2023/03/r/Q1-2023-Investor-Letter.FINAL-030823.pdf https://s201.q4cdn.com/589201576/files/doc_downloads/2023/03/Q1-2023-Mid-Quarter-Update-vFINAL3-030823.pdf https://twitter.com/garrytan/status/1634260576431136768 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565388-svb-financial-blow-up-risk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ymo6Yzjv_KY https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-10/treasury-closely-watching-siliconvalley-bank-share-plunge https://www.cbsnews.com/news/janet-yellen-ukraine-treasury-secretary-kyiv-visit-volodymyr-zelenskyy https://twitter.com/Rippling/status/1634201986894577665 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troubled_Asset_Relief_Program https://www.wsj.com/articles/bond-losses-push-silicon-valley-bank-parent-to-raise-capital-125e89d4 https://dfpi.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/337/2023/03/DFPI-Orders-Silicon-Valley-Bank-03102023.pdf?emrc=bedc09 https://www.google.com/finance/quote/IAT:NYSEARCA

Brad Gerstner discusses the VC FOMO frenzy in AI, macro update, Fox News lawsuit, US-China competition, and more. Topics also include Marc Benioff's stock-based compensation boom, Ukraine peace proposal, Harvard legacy admissions, and Draymond Green on Black History Month.

(0:00) Bestie intro: Jason's Japan trip! (1:04) Stripe's precarious situation: Did it miss its window? Breaking down its $4B tax bill, slowing growth curve, enterprise vs SMB customers, scalability issues, and more (23:07) Lessons for founders: How ZIRP can skew CAC and LTV calculations, burn multiple (29:40) VC market update: ZIRP mistakes, VC as a "must-have" asset class for LPs, how the 2021 vintage can be saved (39:05) AI's outsized impact on SaaS and real-world businesses (55:16) Advice from Steve Jobs on customer-first product development, Section 230 update (1:00:29) Trump's savvy visit to East Palestine and 2024 strategy, Biden's visit to Ukraine, China's position (1:14:24) Tinfoil hat corner (1:23:25) Bestie wrap up! Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/inside-stripes-55-billion-pitch-to-investors https://www.theinformation.com/articles/the-private-tech-company-that-let-employee-stock-grants-evaporate https://techcrunch.com/2013/09/11/zuckerberg-says-he-was-too-afraid-of-taking-facebook-public https://sacks.substack.com/p/enterprises-vs-smbs-whos-the-better-customer-for-b2b-saas-startups-9a0d4efe69e9 https://sacks.substack.com/p/the-burn-multiple-51a7e43cb200 https://twitter.com/tylertringas/status/1627449217294958592 https://chamathreads.substack.com/p/higher-rates-will-lead-to-the-next https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1628851245644644352 https://signalvnoise.com/posts/3497-you-know-one-of-the-things-that-really-hurt https://www.scotusblog.com/2023/02/not-like-the-nine-greatest-experts-on-the-internet-justices-seem-leery-of-broad-ruling-on-section-230 https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/02/20/on-the-record-press-call-by-senior-administration-officials-on-president-bidens-trip-to-ukraine https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/20/secrecy-security-biden-trip-to-kyiv https://www.yahoo.com/news/joe-biden-makes-surprise-visit-095627966.html https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1626984889449959430 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/02/23/world/russia-ukraine-geopolitics.html https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957 https://openai.com/blog/how-should-ai-systems-behave

(0:00) Bestie intros, poker recap, charity shoutouts! (8:34) Toxic Ohio train derailment (25:30) Lina Khan's flawed strategy and rough past few weeks as FTC Chair; rewriting Section 230 (57:27) AI chatbot bias and problems: Bing Chat's strange answers, jailbreaking ChatGPT, and more DONATE: https://www.humanesociety.org/news/going-big-beagles https://www.beastphilanthropy.org/donate Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://techcrunch.com/2023/02/10/mrbeasts-blindness-video-puts-systemic-ableism-on-display https://doomberg.substack.com/p/railroaded https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2023/02/14/norfolk-southerns-ohio-train-derailment-emblematic-rail-trends/11248956002 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-02-15/zantac-cancer-risk-data-was-kept-quiet-by-manufacturer-glaxo-for-40-years https://www.foxnews.com/video/6320573959112 https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-im-resigning-from-the-ftc-commissioner-ftc-lina-khan-regulation-rule-violation-antitrust-339f115d https://fedsoc.org/commentary/fedsoc-blog/gonzalez-google-and-section-230-all-on-the-same-side https://www.investopedia.com/section-230-definition-5207317 https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2023/02/14/norfolk-southerns-ohio-train-derailment-emblematic-rail-trends/11248956002 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1626097497109311495 https://chat.openai.com/chat https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1626091654120894464 https://politiquerepublic.substack.com/p/chatgpt-is-democrat-propoganda https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-35902104 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/16/technology/bing-chatbot-microsoft-chatgpt.html https://unusualwhales.com/news/openais-chatgpt-has-reportedly-predicted-that-the-stock-market-will-crash-on-march-15-2023 https://www.history.com/news/josef-stalin-great-purge-photo-retouching https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/ec-funds-france-build-google-106934 https://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/21/technology/21iht-quaero24.html

Guests discuss the AI search wars between Google and Microsoft, as well as the potential of generative AI to commodify enterprise SaaS. They also touch on topics such as the Nordstream report, Google's troubled business model, lawsuits over training data, and the precarious situation between debt, taxes, and entitlements.

(0:00) Bestie intro! (1:15) Macro picture update: 0.25% raise, jobs rip up, wage growth continues to slow (17:52) Interest rates impact on mega-cap company creation (33:58) Mass extinction event coming to startups, reckoning for VCs, venture debt issues (1:02:33) Adani's potential fraud, role of short sellers Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/02/03/january-jobs-labor-market https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-approves-quarter-point-rate-hike-signals-more-increaseslikely-11675278190 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com https://www.amazon.com/Intelligent-Investor-Definitive-Investing-Essentials/dp/0060555661 https://chamathreads.substack.com/p/higher-rates-will-lead-to-the-next https://www.google.com/finance/quote/META:NASDAQ https://medium.com/@alt.cap/time-to-get-fit-an-open-letter-from-altimeter-to-mark-zuckerberg-and-the-meta-board-of-392d94e80a18 https://www.freightwaves.com/news/fedex-to-cut-global-officer-director-workforce-by-at-least-10 https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/27/23574322/zuckerberg-puts-metas-middle-managers-on-notice https://twitter.com/tomloverro/status/1620466827519496194 https://twitter.com/msuster/status/1620653106387386368 https://twitter.com/gradypb/status/1620937502248034304 https://www.axios.com/2023/02/01/david-cahn-leaves-coatue-for-sequoia-capital https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ADANIENT:NSE?window=1Y https://hindenburgresearch.com/adani https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-30/most-adani-stocks-drop-as-rebuttal-draws-hindenburg-response https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2022/34-94313.pdf https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2023/03/wall-street-muddy-waters-activist-short-sellers-tesla-gamestop/672774

(0:00) David Sacks does bestie intros! (2:49) DOJ sues Google over ads business (23:09) EU probes Microsoft over Slack complaint based on "bundling" Teams (40:27) Pfizer CEO grilled at Davos, studies questioning vaccine effectiveness (1:12:14) Ukraine escalation: US to send tanks and warms to Crimea invasion, reconstruction costs, and more (1:22:39) Science Corner: Will we soon be able to reverse aging? Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://thebulletin.org/2023/01/press-release-doomsday-clock-set-at-90-seconds-to-midnight https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/us/doomsday-clock-midnight.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sues-google-for-alleged-antitrust-violations-in-its-ad-tech-business-11674582792 https://blog.google/outreach-initiatives/public-policy/doj-ad-tech-lawsuit-response https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/would-breaking-up-google-really-do https://thehustle.co/12232022-ad-spend https://www.adweek.com/programmatic/advertisers-sweet-tooth-fades-with-many-unfazed-by-googles-latest-cookie-removal-delay https://www.politico.eu/article/microsoft-european-union-antitrust-video-calls-software-giant https://twitter.com/rebelnewsonline/status/1615770518606561282 https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.061025 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-31401-5 https://www.seacoastonline.com/story/opinion/columns/2022/01/29/kerr-covid-vaccines-anti-vaxxers-should-reject-hospital-beds-too/9246198002/ https://www.cnn.com/videos/media/2021/12/05/marcus-lamb-death-covid-19-vaccines-rs-vpx.cnn https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9451592 https://twitter.com/jason/status/1478587551271161857 https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1618381912413962240 https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/25/ukraine-war-news-us-will-send-abrams-tanks.html https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-now-getting-western-tanks-looking-at-fighter-jets-next-2023-1 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/18/us/politics/ukraine-crimea-military.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11661589/PETER-HITCHENS-Sending-Ukraine-tanks-turn-Europe-one-big-radioactive-graveyard.html https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1618321900324950018 https://intellinews.com/ukraine-spiralling-towards-default-according-to-fitch-267768 https://www.wsj.com/articles/roman-abramovich-ukraine-russia-peace-sanctions-11674572583 https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(22)01570-7#%20

(0:00) Bestie intro, who gets credit for the podcast? (6:27) Top candidates for the Republican nominee in 2024: DeSantis, Youngkin, Haley; major 2024 issues, balancing the budget (19:13) WEF in Davos: is it a grift? Somber mood, globalist mishaps, evaluating the US free trade policy (39:51) Rebuilding infrastructure while avoiding the debt ceiling, immigration reform (1:00:42) TikTok's endgame in the US: banned, spun out, or something else? (1:17:22) Pharma meets AI, best AI business models Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://twitter.com/RitchieTorres/status/1616124738752987152 https://twitter.com/TalbertSwan/status/1616101666582892547 https://www.wsj.com/articles/at-davos-mood-is-somber-as-many-ceos-question-economys-future-11673952415 https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/17/davos-globalization-wef-economic-seige https://twitter.com/ShellenbergerMD/status/1614782758328598528 https://www.facebook.com/worldeconomicforum/videos/8-predictions-for-the-world-in-2030/10153920524981479 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/02/how-insects-positively-impact-climate-change https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dark-side-davos-revealed-global-elite-bookings-sex-workers-soar https://archive.wphna.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/04-03_The_National_Interest._Samuel_Huntington_Davos_Man.pdf https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/15/business/auburn-tiktok-ban-students.html https://www.theinformation.com/articles/vc-s-8-billion-bytedance-headache?rc=g3wfdp https://www.wsj.com/articles/tiktok-tries-to-win-allies-in-the-u-s-with-more-transparency-11673836560 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/22/technology/byte-dance-tik-tok-internal-investigation.html https://www.ft.com/content/6670acad-8a5b-4c4a-b6a8-48dc307b6d4d https://www.hellopearl.com https://roboflow.com https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/brazils-americanas-shares-plunge-pre-market-accounting-inconsistencies-2023-01-12 https://www.wsj.com/articles/alec-baldwin-shooting-charges-involuntary-manslaughter-rust-movie-11674081157

(0:00) Bestie intro! (0:43) Reacting to Slate's article on All-In (11:18) SF business owner caught spraying homeless person on camera (29:22) Microsoft to invest $10B into OpenAI with unique terms, generative AI VC hype cycle (1:09:57) Biden's documents, America's over-classification problem (1:27:16) Best cabinet positions/ambassadorships   Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg   Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast   Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg   Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect   Referenced in the show: https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1613135006272045056 https://www.epsilontheory.com/gell-mann-amnesia https://slate.com/technology/2023/01/all-in-podcast-elon-musk-david-sacks-jason-calacanis-chamath-palihapitiya-david-friedberg.html https://newrepublic.com/article/168125/david-sacks-elon-musk-peter-thiel https://twitter.com/BettyKPIX/status/1613080547022229504 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-12/bankers-bet-millions-on-sovereign-debt-deals-tied-to-green-goals https://fortune.com/2023/01/11/structure-openai-investment-microsoft https://www.ft.com/content/6670acad-8a5b-4c4a-b6a8-48dc307b6d4d https://openai.com/blog/introducing-openai https://ai.facebook.com/tools/pytorch https://fairuse.stanford.edu/overview/fair-use/four-factors https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USAPEFANA  

(0:00) Bestie New Year catch-up! (2:44) Prediction 1: 2023's biggest political winner (17:25) Prediction 2: 2023's biggest political loser (21:57) Prediction 3: 2023's biggest business winner (30:34) Prediction 4: 2023's biggest business loser (42:03) Prediction 5: 2023's biggest business deal (52:41) Prediction 6: 2023's most contrarian belief (1:03:03) Prediction 7: 2023's best-performing asset (1:07:50) Prediction 8: 2023's worst-performing asset (1:14:46) Prediction 9: 2023's most anticipated trend (1:21:40) Prediction 10: 2023's most anticipated media (1:27:07) Breaking news: OpenAI reportedly in talks to sell existing shares at a ~$29B valuation Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.wsj.com/articles/citadel-posts-record-revenues-for-hedge-fund-securities-operations-11672942665 https://www.reuters.com/world/saudi-arabia-gathers-chinas-xi-with-arab-leaders-new-era-ties-2022-12-09/ https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/03/business/europe-natural-gas-prices.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/04/technology/salesforce-layoffs.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-to-lay-off-over-17-000-workers-more-than-first-planned-11672874304 https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1598076726671642624 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/30/world/asia/xi-putin-china-russia.html https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1611052287954149377 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-03/blackstone-s-breit-gets-4-billion-from-university-of-california https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/gop-rebels-block-kevin-mccarthy-defiance-trump-rcna64280 https://www.wsj.com/articles/chatgpt-creator-openai-is-in-talks-for-tender-offer-that-would-value-it-at-29-billion-11672949279