The Gist

Jordan Ellenberg, a mathematics professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, dives into the quirky world of political polling and its unpredictable nature. He explains how historical trends and randomness shape Senate elections while critiquing flawed predictive models. The discussion touches on adapting beliefs with new information in an ever-changing political climate. Plus, enjoy a whimsical tale of bears in NYC and a humorous anecdote involving RFK Jr., blending absurdity with insightful commentary on fate.

Nate Silver, a poker player, author, and renowned forecaster, shares insights from his new book, 'On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.' He delves into the contrasting mindsets between traditional elite circles and risk-takers in finance and tech. The discussion also highlights challenges in political dynamics and content strategies, emphasizing the need for nuanced conversations around free speech. Additionally, Silver critiques the lack of diversity in venture capital, revealing the intricate dance of wealth, innovation, and societal perceptions.

Mo Rocca, a celebrated author and journalist known for his witty takes on historical topics, joins the conversation to discuss his new book about the remarkable achievements of older adults. He explores the triumphs and comebacks of 'Roctogenarians,' shedding light on societal attitudes towards aging and celebrating notable figures like Morgan Freeman. The podcast also examines the delicate balance of joy in political leadership and the complex landscape of abortion access, particularly through telehealth services, raising important questions about patient privacy and the evolving healthcare system.

John J. Sullivan, a former Ambassador to Moscow and Acting Secretary of State, shares insights from his memoir, 'Midnight in Moscow.' He discusses the complexities of U.S.-Russia relations during the Trump era, including personal diplomacy with Putin and the legacy of the Cheka on modern politics. The conversation also explores Tim Walz’s presidential candidacy, emphasizing his Midwestern authenticity and ability to connect with diverse voters, particularly through sensitive messaging on abortion. A compelling mix of personal stories and political analysis!

Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, discusses his recent selection as Kamala Harris' vice presidential running mate, exploring the implications of this choice. Nate Silver shares insights on what Harris missed by not picking Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, delving into the state's critical electoral dynamics. Shad White reveals shocking details from his book on the Mississippi welfare scandal, exposing corruption and the fallout involving prominent figures. Together, they unpack the complexities of political strategy and accountability in today's landscape.

Kayla Scanlon, the coiner of 'vibe session' and author of 'In This Economy? How Money and Markets Really Work,' dives into the complexities of economic perception amidst fluctuating markets. She discusses how media shapes public sentiment on financial matters and emphasizes the emotional aspect of economics. The conversation takes a quirky turn as it touches on a bizarre story involving a bear in Central Park, blending humor and absurdity with the serious topic of navigating economic challenges.

Tim Walz, a serious contender for Vice President, reflects on the Iraq war surge and its implications for leadership. He shares personal anecdotes and historical insights that illustrate the complexities of political decision-making. Additionally, Corey Brettschneider delves into John Adams' nuanced relationship with democracy, highlighting the historical challenges leaders face in balancing power and moral responsibility. Together, they explore how past decisions shape current governance and public perception.

Chris Gavaler and Nat Goldberg, professors at Washington and Lee University and co-authors of a book on sequels and remakes, dive into the implications of Josh Shapiro's Jewish identity amid political speculation for vice presidency. They explore how societal perceptions shape candidacies and draw parallels between political narratives and media retconning. The conversation also touches on controversies surrounding gender identity in sports, particularly in Olympic boxing, and the complexities faced by athletes with Differences in Sexual Development.

Kristen Soltis Anderson, a conservative pollster, dives into the recent shifts in polling dynamics after Biden's exit from the race. She discusses Kamala Harris' rising popularity and how it contrasts with perceptions of Biden's impact on Democratic numbers. Anderson highlights Trump’s strategies and his lack of savvy in naming Harris, and explores the implications of Biden's negative polling effects now gone. The conversation even touches on the complexities of recent international prisoner swaps, adding a global perspective to the political landscape.

On a day when former President Donald Trump told black journalists that Kamala Harris denied being black (fact check: untrue), we speak about former President John Adams, who himself ran athwart many Constitutional norms ... or, at least, what we have come to accept as norms. Our guest is Corey Brettschneider, author of Presidents and the People: Five Leaders Who Threatened Democracy and the Citizens Who Fought to Defend It. Plus, what Israel's reported assassination of the political leader of Hamas does to the "Israel is doomed to fail" narrative.Produced by Joel Patterson and Corey WaraEmail us at thegist@mikepesca.comTo advertise on the show, visit: https://advertisecast.com/TheGistSubscribe to The Gist Subscribe: https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/Follow Mikes Substack at: Pesca Profundities | Mike Pesca | Substack Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices