The John Johnston Lounge

In this episode I summarize and discuss a recent interview with legendary value investor Seth Klarman. During the interview Klarman discussed the “Everything Bubble” he sees unwinding, the investing opportunities that’s bringing, the nature of value investing in relation to growth, buying quality companies at the right price, how to get an edge in the competitive investing environment today, technology investing in inefficient markets, Bitcoin, the current macroeconomic environment, and more. Timestamps: 00:00 Seth Klarman Intro 00:37 Security Analysis revised  00:59 The Everything Bubble 02:05 The Bubble timeline and investing opportunities: 4/10 03:26 Then and now: railroads to SPACs and crypto 04:44 What is value investing? Klarman's definition  05:48 How to think about growth in investing 06:10 Not overpaying for quality companies 06:54 Warren Buffett and buying the Index  07:37 How to get an edge 08:15 Inefficient markets and mis-priced stocks: META 09:09 Thoughts on technology disruption and crypto 09:43 Is Bitcoin digital gold? 10:32 Macroeconomic prediction and investing Related episodes: Why Druckenmiller Owns Nvidia Despite "Nosebleed Territory” https://youtu.be/QP496jwcumk Are AI Stocks A Bubble? Druckenmiller, Greenblatt Said… https://youtu.be/KmlXeoM5LLY Peter Lynch's 2023 Advice on Buying Stocks - Rare Interview https://youtu.be/sZKt5j1Rwi0 Investing Book referenced in this episode: Security Analysis, Seventh Edition: Principles and Technique, by Benjamin Graham, David Dodd, Seth Klarman - editor (referral link) https://amzn.to/444wP3K Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks! The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664 I use GuruFocus for historical, financial and valuation data, screeners, charts and comparison tools, to help me make smarter long-term investing decisions (refferal link): https://www.gurufocus.com/?r=2c95d5930bb2537b2e0265075fb66581 Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

This episode discusses recent comments by three stock market investors, including legendary fund managers Stanley Druckenmiller and Joel Greenblatt, focusing on the question: we know there’s an artificial intelligence (AI) boom going on right now, but is there an AI stock bubble? We look at what these investors are saying about AI stocks, Nvidia stock (NVDA), the current stock market, and how they think it’s going to play out. I also give my opinion on the topics. Timestamps: 00:00 AI stock bubble intro 00:14 Stan Druckemmiller: Separating the wheat from the chaff. 05:17 Joel Greenblatt: Current opportunities rhyming with the Dotcom Bubble. 08:57 Jim Bianco - Wealthion: AI stocks are “way out there in bubble-land...” 12:37 My final thoughts: AI is a long term secular move but... Related episodes: Why Druckenmiller Owns Nvidia Despite "Nosebleed Territory” https://youtu.be/QP496jwcumk Microsoft to Challenge Google Search Using OpenAI's ChatGPT https://youtu.be/Vh42ZgADo5k The AI Race is ON! Google Showcases New AI Products https://youtu.be/xL7MvGAjdew Interviews referenced in the episode: Bloomberg (June 2023): Druckenmiller on How AI is Dominating His Long Portfolio https://youtu.be/NERglanBMIk HFA Fireside Chat with Hedge Fund Manager Joel Greenblatt https://youtu.be/utP9ZVog554 Wealthion: AI Stocks Definitely In A Bubble Right Now | Jim Bianco https://youtu.be/MazHnXttvQk The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664 Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks! I use GuruFocus for historical, financial and valuation data, screeners, charts and comparison tools, to help me make smarter long-term investing decisions (refferal link): https://www.gurufocus.com/?r=2c95d5930bb2537b2e0265075fb66581 Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

In this episode I summarize and respond to a recent Wall Street Journal article questioning the current Tesla stock market valuation. I also respond to popular investing YouTuber Joesph Carlson’s reaction to that Wall Street Journal Tesla analysis. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro: The Wall Stree Journal hit piece and Joseph Carlson’s response 01:40 Good company in a bad industry? 03:02 Not just an auto company? 04:11 Tesla ecosystem  04:49 Tesla destination: does it need Elon? 05:43 Market valuation too expensive? 07:35 Renewed enthusiasm for Tesla Stock (TSLA) 08:53 Why the recent parabolic stock rise? 09:51 Is Tesla an AI company? 11:02 AI + Full Self Driving (FSD) + robotaxis   13:02 GM’s Cruse and Google’s Waymo robotaxis  14:46 Tesla Supercharging Network for all  16:14 Supercharging the Tesla ecosystem 20:11 The destination for Tesla and its valuation 20:57 Are small caps a better bet? 21:32 Tesla the spawner company 22:48 Elon Musk: Twitter distraction? 23:56 To buy or not to buy? Related episodes: I Just Bought Tesla Stock for the 1st Time! https://youtu.be/YX76lZBp8X4 Is Tesla Stock Going to $60? https://youtu.be/MqN_rnkGDnE The Art of Value Tesla Stock playlist (8 episodes): https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrNjj1l3MS7UkaBPMBFJF26HHxpUgH9zQ Chuck Akre Said This About How to Find 100 Baggers https://youtu.be/xoKe1AvquTI Joseph Carlson After Hours: The Wall Street Journal Attacks Tesla https://youtu.be/23pPMUOD2nY The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664 Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks! I use GuruFocus for historical, financial and valuation data, screeners, charts and comparison tools, to help me make smarter long-term investing decisions (refferal link): https://www.gurufocus.com/?r=2c95d5930bb2537b2e0265075fb66581 Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

In this episode I summarize and discuss an interview with legendary investor Chuck Akre, in which he lays out his three-legged stool investing approach that has enabled him to achieve multiple 100 bagger stocks, and many multi-baggers. We look at examples from Akre Capital Management’s portfolio, and how his investment strategy has achieved such impressive returns over the long term.  Timestamps: 00:00 Chuck Akre intro 00:31 Akre Capital Management Portfolio 01:45 Investing from a one traffic light town 03:03 More qualitative than quantitative  03:34 Akre's three-legged stool approach 03:52 First leg 04:55 Second leg 05:25 Third leg 05:53 Not overpaying 06:18 The art of not selling 06:37 Portfolio company: Mastercard 08:22 Importance of keeping it simple 09:16 Importance of the businesspeople 10:33 Portfolio company: O’Reilly Automotive 10:59 100 to 1 in the Stock Market and 100 Baggers 12:50 100 bagger portfolio company: American Tower 14:53 Starting with small caps 15:48 When Akre sells - broken stools 16:19 Outro Related episodes Chris Mayer 100 Bagger Portfolio | Response to Stock Compounder https://youtu.be/vzjCkGWoJfs Chris Mayer 100 Baggers: Stocks That Return 100 to 1! https://youtu.be/59CuGd2aAwg Brookfield CEO Just Said This Re: Stock Market, AI, China, Energy https://youtu.be/AWEvf2DcotI Mohnish Pabrai: Key Investing Lessons from "Circling the Wagons” https://youtu.be/TqC_m7-DPfM Mohnish Pabrai Talks Constellation Software & Mark Leonard https://youtu.be/xPI773-AE-I Investing books recommended in the episode: 100 to 1 in the Stock Market : A Distinguished Security Analyst Tells How to Make More of Your Investment Opportunities - Thomas W Phelps (referral link): https://amzn.to/3JoThMN 100 Baggers: Stocks That Return 100-to-1 and How To Find Them - Christopher Mayer (referral link): https://amzn.to/3NH8OtT The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664 Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks! I use GuruFocus for historical, financial and valuation data, screeners, charts and comparison tools, to help me make smarter long-term investing decisions (refferal link): https://www.gurufocus.com/?r=2c95d5930bb2537b2e0265075fb66581 Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

In this episode I summarize and discuss a recent panel interview with Bruce Flatt, CEO of Brookfield and often referred to as the Canadian Warren Buffett. Flatt gave his thoughts on today’s stock market, what he thinks is currently overhyped, long term investing, investing in China, and the renewable energy transition. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro: Bruce Flatt and Brookfield 01:10 Brookfield’s super-investor shareholders 02:20 What’s overhyped right now 04:13 What's under-appreciated right now 04:53 Compounding wealth and when to invest 06:20 Outlook for the stock market, and investing positivity  06:50 Stock market distractions and private investing 07:16 Investing in China 09:06 The energy transition to renewable energy 10:08 Final thoughts on long term investing   Related content: Why Druckenmiller Owns Nvidia Despite "Nosebleed Territory” https://youtu.be/QP496jwcumk Full Forbes Iconoclast Summit panel discussion with Bruce Flatt https://youtu.be/iGnYQUplOOo The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664 Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks! I use GuruFocus for historical, financial and valuation data, screeners, charts and comparison tools, to help me make smarter long-term investing decisions (refferal link): https://www.gurufocus.com/?r=2c95d5930bb2537b2e0265075fb66581 Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

This episode summarizes and discusses a recent interview with legendary macro-investor Stan Druckenmiller. Druckenmiller talked about his current bullishness on AI stocks and how they’ve been dominating his long portfolio for the past few months. He also talked about the hard landing recession that he still sees coming, and his predictions for the economic environment. His comments are always worth listening to, as he hasn’t had a year of negative investment returns in 40 years. Timestamps: 00:00 Stan Druckenmiller intro 00:34 US-led tech innovation 01:02 The AI boom 02:04 Nvidia stock 02:36 AI dominating is longs 02:50 Lessons for AI from The Dotcom Bubble 04:16 Where are the fat pitches? 06:35 Hard landing recession ahead? 08:52 What will sink?   10:50 When recession? Related content: Oct 2022: Stanley Druckenmiller Predicts Hard Landing Recession for 2023 https://youtu.be/VxpoJnbD8yo May 2023: Stan Druckenmiller Still Predicts Hard Landing Recession https://youtu.be/8Ue-etn4E74 Full Bloomberg invterview (June 2023): Druckenmiller on How AI is Dominating His Long Portfolio https://youtu.be/NERglanBMIk The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664 Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks! I use GuruFocus for historical, financial and valuation data, screeners, charts and comparison tools, to help me make smarter long-term investing decisions (refferal link): https://www.gurufocus.com/?r=2c95d5930bb2537b2e0265075fb66581 Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

This episode is an update on Alibaba’s ongoing spin-off plans for its various business segments, starting with the Alibaba Cloud Intelligence Group within the next 12 months, with others to follow. I explore what these business are, what they do, and what their prospects are as future individual companies. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:37 First Spinoff: Alibaba Cloud Intelligence Group 02:10 Next IPO plans 02:28 China Commerce 03:08 International Commerce 03:38 Local Consumer Services 04:08 Cainiao 04:38 Alibaba Cloud 05:14 Digital Media and Entertainment 05:36 Innovations and Other Initiatives 06:30 Final thoughts Related episodes: Alibaba Full Year Earnings Update | BABA Stock https://youtu.be/caAUsjmMGRw Alibaba Reveals Break-Up Plan! | Big BABA Stock Upside? https://youtu.be/spwgEGJlxmc Mohnish Pabrai: Why I Switched from Alibaba to Tencent https://youtu.be/v27JsHlgPZU Are China Stocks UNINVESTABLE or HISTORIC VALUE OPPORTUNITY? https://youtu.be/qfrjfIEx1vw Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks! The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664 I use GuruFocus for historical, financial and valuation data, screeners, charts and comparison tools, to help me make smarter long-term investing decisions (refferal link): https://www.gurufocus.com/?r=2c95d5930bb2537b2e0265075fb66581 Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

This episode includes a summary and thoughts on Alibaba's Full Fiscal Year 2023 Results, the current China economic backdrop, Alibaba’s ongoing share repurchases, a brief update on Alibaba's planned spinoffs including Alibaba Cloud, some comments from the CEO and CFO, and the overall direction of company. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:25 BABA the controversial stock 01:20 Alibaba the company 03:00 CEO & CFO comments 04:30 Multiple spinoff announcements 05:30 New business capital allocation priorities 06:30 Substantial Free Cash Flow  07:10 Financial results overview 08:20 Share buybacks 09:19 Substantial net cash position  Related episodes: Are China Stocks UNINVESTABLE or HISTORIC VALUE OPPORTUNITY? https://youtu.be/qfrjfIEx1vw Mohnish Pabrai: Why I Switched from Alibaba to Tencent https://youtu.be/v27JsHlgPZU   Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks! The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664 I use GuruFocus for historical, financial and valuation data, screeners, charts and comparison tools, to help me make smarter long-term investing decisions (refferal link): https://www.gurufocus.com/?r=2c95d5930bb2537b2e0265075fb66581 Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

A look at the portfolio updates of seven guru or super-investors from Q1 2023. The investors include Warren Buffett (together with Charlie Munger at Berkshire Hathaway), Mohnish Pabrai, Li Lu, Chuck Akre, Bill Ackman, David Tepper, and Thomas Gayner. See below for timestamps for investor sections, and related episodes. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:15 Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger - Berkshire Hathaway     05:15 Mohnish Pabrai - Pabrai Investments 09:00 Li Lu - Himalaya Capital Management 12:08 Chuck Akre - Akre Capital Management 15:40 Bill Ackman - Pershing Square Capital Management 16:59 David Tepper - Appaloosa Management 19:49 Thomas Gayner - Markel    Related episodes: Mohnish Pabrai: Key Investing Lessons from "Circling the Wagons” https://youtu.be/TqC_m7-DPfM Warren Buffett Interview: Banking Crisis? - Highlights https://youtu.be/2ysbmHbVVYs Mohnish Pabrai’s thoughts on Constellation Software and Mark Leonard https://youtu.be/HR_gJ6WOe60 Investor Li Lu is Buying MORE Google Stock | Why? https://youtu.be/is9frHZaGYg The AI Race is ON! Google Showcases New AI Products https://youtu.be/xL7MvGAjdew Is OpenAI ChatGPT Disrupting Google? Founders Come Back! https://youtu.be/7dLT_CDITmg I Just Bought Tesla Stock for the 1st Time! https://youtu.be/YX76lZBp8X4 Recommended book - mentioned in this episode: Richer, Wiser, Happier: How the World's Greatest Investors Win in Markets and Life, by William Green (refferal link) https://amzn.to/3WGcleJ Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks! The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664 I use GuruFocus for historical, financial and valuation data, screeners, charts and comparison tools, to help me make smarter long-term investing decisions (refferal link): https://www.gurufocus.com/?r=2c95d5930bb2537b2e0265075fb66581 Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

I summarize and discuss key lessons from Mohnish Pabrai’s latest presentation, Circle the Wagons, in which he emphasizes the importance of finding and protecting your very best few investments for the long term, and how to go about doing that. Related episodes: Mohnish Pabrai Talks Constellation Software & Mark Leonard https://youtu.be/xPI773-AE-I Mohnish Pabrai on The Best Super Investor You Don't Know: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala https://youtu.be/XwgLnnr_nCw Stan Druckenmiller Still Predicts Hard Landing Recession https://youtu.be/8Ue-etn4E74 Chris Mayer 100 Baggers: Stocks That Return 100 to 1! https://youtu.be/59CuGd2aAwg Peter Lynch's 2023 Advice on Buying Stocks - Rare Interview https://youtu.be/sZKt5j1Rwi0 Investor Li Lu Buying MORE Google Stock | Why? https://youtu.be/is9frHZaGYg The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664 Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks! I use GuruFocus for historical, financial and valuation data, screeners, charts and comparison tools, to help me make smarter long-term investing decisions (refferal link): https://www.gurufocus.com/?r=2c95d5930bb2537b2e0265075fb66581 Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.