The Art of Value

After looking at the latest Spotify Q3 2022 earnings, and listening to the earnings call with CEO Daniel Ek, in this episode I give an updated summary and some commentary on the streaming media company. Has the investment story changed? 00:15 Spotify financial media headlines 02:57 SPOT recent share price action 03:35 Spotify Q3 2022 highlights 05:02 New video podcasting 05:44 Q3 2022 financial summary 06:19 Gross margin concern 07:45 Free cash flow 08:10 Global mix of monthly active users (MAUs) 09:03 First iteration of Audiobooks 09:43 Progress of Podcasting 10:08 Two-Sided Marketplace 10:30 Outlook for Q4 2022 10:48 Earnings call highlights and commentary 14:21 The critical metric: Lifetime User Value (LTV) 15:58 Danial Ek on gross margins 17:42 Increasing prices - pricing power 19:07 Battling the gatekeeper: Apple 19:42 A key takeaway Related episode: Some Key Takeaways from Spotify Investor Day 2022 https://youtu.be/EQHQcOZCkGM Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

Have you heard of the coffee can portfolio? It's a classic investing strategy, proven over many decades. It works only if the investor has the patience to carry it out without getting distracted. It involves doing nothing to beat the market, or almost nothing. How is it possible that it has worked? Let’s find out. Timestamps: 00:18 The Coffee Can Portfolio 01:14 Origins of The Coffee Can Portfolio strategy 02:37 Why does it work? 03:32 Pfizer coffee can example 04:22 Extreme coffee can example 05:33 Importance of changing company lifespans 06:54 Coffee can strategy for 100 baggers 07:52 Even Warren Buffett has sold too early 08:40 Apple coffee can example 09:55 How long does it take? Related episode: 100 Baggers: Returning $100 For Every $1 Invested https://youtu.be/fAARfZFO4Gs Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

In a very recent interview, super-investor Bill Ackman was asked: what are the red flags for you to decide to sell a company, even at a loss? Ackman had two main points to his answer, but also answered in a good amount of detail. He used his recent sale of Netflix as an example, after only owning the stock for a few months, which is unusual for him. His second point came in the form of some advice for retail investors about when to sell a stock, using Tesla as his hypothetical example. Timestamps: 00:30 A remarkable business 00:55 Netflix Undervalued? 02:23 Ackman's Netflix investment thesis 02:50 A reason to sell 04:10 Another reason to sell 04:55 Predictability and risk profile 06:26 Ackman's advice to retail investors: Tesla hypothetical 07:16 Thesis twisting is trouble 08:03 On making investing mistakes Related episode: Bill Ackman: Why NOW Is A Pretty Good Time To Buy Stocks https://youtu.be/krSnhsGfKoM The Bill Ackman interview clips referenced in this episode can be found on the Interactive Investor channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/interactiveinvestoruk Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

Bill Ackman Interview: In a very recent interview, superinvestor and fund manager Bill Ackman, speaking about buying stocks in the current bear market, said “I think today is a pretty good time. It’s a pretty good point of entry”. In this episode, I delve into this and other important things Ackman said about investing today, including information on his current investing strategy and focus, his approach to stock picking, and his outlook on the macro economy. Timestamps: 00:04 Ackman: Today is a pretty good time to buy 00:41 Ackman’s investing strategy 01:14 Impact of rising interest rates and inflation 02:52 Pricing power rules 04:21 Probability of coming recession 04:32 Opportunistic macro investing 05:02 Is Bill Ackman buying yet? 07:54 Super-high quality rules 08:31 Recent Ackman portfolio activity 09:27 Keeping cash in reserve 09:42 Is the current market cheap? 10:07 Pershing Square buybacks The Bill Ackman interview clips referenced in this episode can be found on the Interactive Investor YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/interactiveinvestoruk Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

Cannabis federal legalization has just taken a big step forward with a surprise announcement from president Biden to reschedule cannabis at the federal level, along with some other key cannabis policy changes. In this episode I explore what this means for investors, and what is likely to happen in the near future for publicly listed U.S. cannabis companies and their stocks. Timestamps: 00:23 Cannabis stocks ripped higher on the news 01:23 Biden's important cannabis policy announcement 03:42 Rescheduling cannabis, not federal decriminalization, yet 04:24 No need to wait for SAFE Banking? 05:34 US cannabis companies uplisting to major stock exchanges? 06:28 Fair tax treatment for US cannabis companies 07:06 US cannabis company valuation arbitrage 08:02 Any more downside risk ahead? 08:57 How quickly will Biden move on cannabis? Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

In his latest tweets, famed investor Michael Burry admits to feeling greedy as the stock market continues to fall. In this episode, I interpret Burry’s latest tweets, which can sometimes be cryptic. I also explain who Michael Burry is, what he means by "feeling greedy", and I consider whether the stock market is really crashing. Related video: Investor Jeremy Grantham: Super Bubble Enters Final Phase https://youtu.be/tTFO3Qn5e20 Timestamps: 00:13 Who is Michael Burry? 00:37 What does Burry mean by “feeling greedy”? 01:08 The "It has always been this way before” tweet 01:48 Is the stock market crashing? 04:11 The “In 2021 I warned on the ALL THINGS bubble” tweet 05:52 The “ALL the silliness must go” tweet, 25 stock examples 07:20 Where’s the bottom of the market? 08:04 Burry's mid-late 2000 feeling - free cash flow on sale 09:25 The difference between now and 2000 10:27 “I admit I’m feeling greedy.” But… 11:11 “math problems that more or less must work out.” Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial help before making any investment decision

I discuss the latest FQ4 2022 earnings release from Micron Technology (MU), and a brief investment thesis for the company from investor Mohnish Pabrai. Micron Technology is in the business of designing and manufacturing digital memory and storage products for multiple industries. Timestamps: 00:15 Micron superinvestors 00:55 Mohnish Pabrai’s Micron Investment Thesis 02:40 Mohnish Pabrai and Li Lu collaboration 04:32 Micron (MU) stock price history 05:52 Micron’s historical cyclicality 07:18 FQ4 Earnings highlights and summary 09:10 New U.S. manufacturing facilities Related video: Micron Technology (MU) Q3 2022 Earnings, Outlook and Mohnish Pabrai’s Investment Thesis https://youtu.be/0zG4fG3si5A Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial help before making any investment decision

In a recent interview, Stanley Druckenmiller gave his current outlook for the stock market and macroeconomic environment. His current forecasts for both are very bearish, but he's wildly bullish on one sector, and mildly bullish on another asset class. He thinks the US Fed made a huge mistake in 2021, and the repercussions are going to be felt for a long time in stock markets. Timestamps: 00:24 Who is Stanley Druckenmiller? 00:36 Key points 01:11 The US Fed’s big mistake 01:52 The cause of rapidly rising inflation 04:08 Druck’s stock market outlook 05:17 Hard landing recession 06:04 Druck’s still bullish on these 06:43 Summing up Druck Related video: Stanley Druckenmiller Interview Summary: Macro Investor Druck Predicts A Hard Landing (Recession) https://youtu.be/azNVEA6jdH4 Interview transcript referenced in this episode: https://cnb.cx/3RCnhWu Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

In a recent Q&A session, super investor Mohnish Pabrai shared the story of the investing career of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, one of India’s best investors of all time,  who recently died. In this episode, I share what Mohnish said, and distill it down to 4 important points about how Rakesh invested to great success. Timestamps: 00:10 Who is Rakesh Jhunjhunwala? 02:27 First important point 03:02 Second important point 03:35 Rakesh’s biggest compounder 04:40 Third important point 05:16 Fourth important point 05:55 Rakesh’s other compounders 06:30 The holy grail of investing Related video: Mohnish Pabrai: “The best way to invest is…” https://youtu.be/lxl2bIS1o6c Finding future multibagger stocks like Starbucks (SBUX), with Mohnish Pabrai https://youtu.be/3bAEnKtDI60 Mohnish Pabrai interview referenced in the episode: Mohnish Pabrai’s Q&A session with the Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok on August 30, 2022 https://youtu.be/wz8N5CkTA2w Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

In three recent interviews, investor Mohnish Pabrai revealed why he sold Alibaba (BABA) stock, and swapped the investment for Tencent instead. He also revealed what he now thinks of both companies as investments. Related video: Mohnish Pabrai: “The best way to invest is…” https://youtu.be/lxl2bIS1o6c Timestamps: 00:38 Super-investors who own BABA 02:02 Value investing in China - the risks 03:03 Why sell BABA, and why at that time? 04:12 Tax loss harvesting 05:14 The superior business 06:07 BABA bull and bear points 07:54 Did Pabrai make the right long-term decision? 09:00 Acceptable error rates - John Templeton Mohnish Pabrai interviews referenced in the episode: Mohnish Pabrai’s Q&A session with the Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok on August 30, 2022 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wz8N5CkTA2w Mohnish Pabrai’s Talk with CFA Society of Mexico on August 17, 2022 https://youtu.be/MYR0tWgstMI Mohnish Pabrai Interview (1/4) - Everything money - 20 Dec 2021 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELRBmkAv01I Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.