The Art of Value

JJ discusses the latest Memo from legendary value investor Howard Marks, Taking the Temperature, in which Marks explains his strategy of taking the temperature of the stock market at any given time. Marks has made only 5 stock market calls since 2000, and got them right. He thinks we can do it too. Timestamps: 00:00 Howard Marks, Taking the Temperature intro 01:15 Jan 2000 : Calling the Dotcom Bubble bust 03:40 2004-2007: A slow developing train wreck 05:26 2008: Subprime and the Global Financial Crisis 06:45 Late 2008: Putting money to work in a cold market 08:09 2012: The death of equities? Déjà vu all over again 11:09 March 2020: Market panic and fear - a time to buy 13:11 How we can make correct market calls 15:27 Stock market pattern recognition Related content: Howard Marks Says Historic Stock Market Sea Change Has Begun https://open.spotify.com/episode/0P39cFztbVFU369YbFjNCK?si=bdc9c45581e44c63 Investing books featured in the episode: Mastering The Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side by Howard Marks (referral link) https://amzn.to/3qdVK6g Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation by Edward Chancellor (referral link) https://amzn.to/3Ykgw0C Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks! The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664 I use TIKR Terminal to help analyze great businesses, follow top investor portfolios, and help monitor my portfolio (referral link): http://tikr.com/theartofvalue Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

I summarize and discuss what investor Mohnish Pabrai has said in recent Q&A interviews about his friend and colleague, legendary investor Li Lu. Timestamps: 00:00 Mohnish Pabrai on Li Lu Intro 00:20 Why Charlie Munger gave Li Lu $80 million to invest 00:55 How Li Lu became a great investor 03:11 Looking for investing anomalies 04:39 How Mohnish Pabrai got to know Li Lu 05:17 An missed opportunity from Li Lu 06:00 A captured opportunity from Li Lu: Moutai Related content: Investor Li Lu Buying MORE Google Stock | Why https://youtu.be/is9frHZaGYg Mohnish Pabrai's Q&A session with the Finance Club of IIT Patna on May 10, 2023 https://youtu.be/Qgtb7LnvP6Y The Investing with Tom Podcast #38: Monsoon Pabrai on Meeting Buffett, China Tech, Moutai and more https://youtu.be/YF1CTPViYHo The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664 Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks! I use TIKR Terminal to help analyze great businesses, follow top investor portfolios, and help monitor my portfolio (referral link): http://tikr.com/theartofvalue Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

I summarize and respond to what famous "Big Short" investor Steve Eisman is currently predicting for US the stock market. Eisman was recently interviewed by CNBC about the recent US stock market melt-up, and the current economic environment. Timestamps: 00:00 "Big Short" investor Steven Eisman intro 00:23 Most anticipated recession and the market melt-up 01:32 Time to take profits or hold? 02:24 Do higher rates matter? 02:37 "Growth stocks" vs ""Value stocks" 03:35 What happened to the banking crisis? 04:58 The Magnificent Seven stocks and the AI Boom 05:39 My final thoughts Related content: Stock Market Crash Over? Big Short Investor Eisman Predicts https://youtu.be/f-U-ff8RP7M Why Druckenmiller Owns Nvidia Despite "Nosebleed Territory” https://youtu.be/QP496jwcumk The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664 Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks! I use TIKR Terminal to help analyze great businesses, follow top investor portfolios, and help monitor my portfolio (referral link): http://tikr.com/theartofvalue Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

In this episode I summarize and discuss a talk by investor and fund manager Mohnish Pabrai on US stock market bubbles since the 1920s. We look at the Motors Bubble, the Tronics Bubble, the Nifty-Fifty Bubble, and the Dotcom Bubble. I also discuss very recent market bubbles, including the EV bubble and emerging AI bubble. Timestamps: 00:00 Mohnish Pabrai stock market bubbles Intro 00:22 The Motors Bubble (1921) and the EV Bubble (2020-21) 02:40 The Tronics Bubble (1959-62) and the emerging AI bubble (2023-?) 04:23 The Dotcom Bubble (1997-2000) 06:49 The Technology Innovation Hype Cycle 07:32 ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), EV sector, AI boom - 2020-23 09:07 Stock market: new blood and short memories 10:02 Rhyming with the Dotcom Bubble - 2020-21 11:19 The Nifty-Fifty Bubble and bust (early 1970s) 12:49 A shock to the system Related episodes: Mohnish Pabrai on Mistakes, AI Euphoria, Nvidia, Microsoft https://youtu.be/zs7pdV3fSJc Why Druckenmiller Owns Nvidia Despite "Nosebleed Territory” https://youtu.be/QP496jwcumk Mohnish Pabrai's Presentation and Q&A at MDI, Gurgaon on December 22, 2015 https://youtu.be/OFkApI6zZtY As seen in this video, I use TIKR Terminal to help analyze great businesses, follow top investor portfolios, and help monitor my portfolio (refferal link): http://tikr.com/theartofvalue Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks! The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664 Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

In this episode I discuss the young Canadian billionaire investor and entrepreneur Andrew Wilkinson. He's the co-founder of Tiny Ltd , which has been labelled a baby Berkshire Hathaway of Tech. It's a small-cap holding company comprising many previous company acquisitions, start-ups, and company investments. Timestamps: 00:00 Andrew Wilkinson and Tiny Ltd intro 00:23 A Berkshire Hathaway of Tech 01:24 Buying like Buffett and Mark Leonard (Constellation Software) 02:22 Focusing on the businesses not the share price 03:14 Owning only wonderful businesses 04:28 Bootstrapping experience makes for better investing 05:43 Serial entrepreneurship since 2010 6:55 Discovering Warren Buffett and value investing 07:58 Getting to know Bill Ackman, Howard Marks, Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger 09:32 The 2023 Tiny and WeCommerce merger 10:24 Doing quick Buffett-like deals 11:11 Learning extreme delegation from Buffett 12:23 The power of anti-goals 12:47 Final thoughts Related episodes: Chuck Akre Said This About How to Find 100 Baggers https://youtu.be/xoKe1AvquTI Mohnish Pabrai Talks Constellation Software & Mark Leonard https://youtu.be/xPI773-AE-I As seen in this video, I use TIKR Terminal to help analyze great businesses, follow top investor portfolios, and help monitor my portfolio (refferal link): http://tikr.com/theartofvalue Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks! The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664 Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

In this episode I summarize and discuss what legendary investor Steve Eisman, who was played by Steve Carell in the movie The Big Short, has been predicting for the end of the US stock market crash - after the market declined around 25% in 2022, and has been steadily rebounding since October 2022. I also respond to our value investing YouTuber friend Hamish Hodder's find that Eisman recently revealed his next big stock market sector bet. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:18 Eisman predicts: If the Fed stops raising rates... 05:05 The forward-looking stock market 06:21 Lower inflation and a recession? 08:44 Eisman's investments 10:21 A sector of particular interest Related episodes: Mohnish Pabrai on Mistakes, AI Euphoria, Nvidia, Microsoft https://youtu.be/zs7pdV3fSJc Why Druckenmiller Owns Nvidia Despite "Nosebleed Territory” https://youtu.be/QP496jwcumk Stan Druckenmiller Still Predicts Hard Landing Recession https://youtu.be/8Ue-etn4E74 Hamish Hodder: Big Short Investor Predicts END of the Stock Market Crash https://youtu.be/Snto0ZK-dIA The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664 Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks! I use TIKR Terminal to help analyze great businesses, follow top investor portfolios, and help monitor my portfolio (refferal link): http://tikr.com/theartofvalue Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

In this episode I summarize and discuss a recent interview with veteran value investor Jeremy Grantham, in which he explains how he thinks the deflation of a financial markets super-bubble is currently being prolonged by an emerging mini-bubble in artificial intelligence (AI). Timestamps: 00:00 Jeremy Grantham Super-Bubble Intro 00:45 Who is Jeremy Grantham?  01:21 Grantham's prediction track record 02:21 Super-Bubble stages, including the emerging AI mini-bubble 05:45 Is this a big bear market rally? 07:54 The AI hype cycle 08:59 Prolonged Super-Bubble deflation 10:08 Time to take AI stock profits? Related episodes: Jeremy Grantham Super Bubble: Euphoria to Panic to Recession https://youtu.be/LZfe8M4kpJc Mohnish Pabrai on Mistakes, AI Euphoria, Nvidia, Microsoft https://youtu.be/zs7pdV3fSJc Why Druckenmiller Owns Nvidia Despite "Nosebleed Territory” https://youtu.be/QP496jwcumk Seth Klarman: We've Had An Everything Bubble https://youtu.be/C4rs2M_lOKw The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664 Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks! I use TIKR Terminal to help analyze great businesses, follow top investors, and help monitor my portfolio (refferal link): http://tikr.com/theartofvalue Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

In this episode I summarize and discuss selected parts of a recent Q&A session with value investor and fund manager Mohnish Pabrai. During the Q&A Pabrai offered his thoughts on investing mistakes and the reasons for the high average rate of investor errors, current Nvidia (NVDA) euphoria compared with Microsoft (MSFT) euphoria during the Dotcom Bubble, and what it takes to be a good investor. Timestamps: 00:00 Mohnish Pabrai Q&A intro 00:19 Investing mistakes and projecting Nvidia to infinity 01:20 Microsoft stock during and after the Dotcom Bubble 02:59 Amazon stock during and after the Dotcom Bubble 03.27 Nvidia rhyming with Dotcom Bubble era Mircosoft 05:11 The AI too hard basket and asking simpler questions 06:54 The other reason for high error rates in investing 07:58 What's needed to be a good investor Related episodes: Mohnish Pabrai: Key Investing Lessons from "Circling the Wagons” https://youtu.be/TqC_m7-DPfM Chuck Akre Said This About How to Find 100 Baggers https://youtu.be/xoKe1AvquTI Mohnish Pabrai Portfolio Update: Pabrai Buys BAM Stock! (Brookfield Asset Management) https://youtu.be/c5ivXtnz6-U Why Druckenmiller Owns Nvidia Despite "Nosebleed Territory” https://youtu.be/QP496jwcumk Mohnish Pabrai's Q&A with members of the Finance and Investment Cell at SRCC, Delhi on June 14, 2023 https://youtu.be/tYtG7ZvMSjM The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664 Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks! I use GuruFocus for historical, financial and valuation data, screeners, charts and comparison tools, to help me make smarter long-term investing decisions (refferal link): https://www.gurufocus.com/?r=2c95d5930bb2537b2e0265075fb66581 Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

In this episode I summarize and discuss a recent interview with legendary value investor Seth Klarman. During the interview Klarman discussed the “Everything Bubble” he sees unwinding, the investing opportunities that’s bringing, the nature of value investing in relation to growth, buying quality companies at the right price, how to get an edge in the competitive investing environment today, technology investing in inefficient markets, Bitcoin, the current macroeconomic environment, and more. Timestamps: 00:00 Seth Klarman Intro 00:37 Security Analysis revised  00:59 The Everything Bubble 02:05 The Bubble timeline and investing opportunities: 4/10 03:26 Then and now: railroads to SPACs and crypto 04:44 What is value investing? Klarman's definition  05:48 How to think about growth in investing 06:10 Not overpaying for quality companies 06:54 Warren Buffett and buying the Index  07:37 How to get an edge 08:15 Inefficient markets and mis-priced stocks: META 09:09 Thoughts on technology disruption and crypto 09:43 Is Bitcoin digital gold? 10:32 Macroeconomic prediction and investing Related episodes: Why Druckenmiller Owns Nvidia Despite "Nosebleed Territory” https://youtu.be/QP496jwcumk Are AI Stocks A Bubble? Druckenmiller, Greenblatt Said… https://youtu.be/KmlXeoM5LLY Peter Lynch's 2023 Advice on Buying Stocks - Rare Interview https://youtu.be/sZKt5j1Rwi0 Investing Book referenced in this episode: Security Analysis, Seventh Edition: Principles and Technique, by Benjamin Graham, David Dodd, Seth Klarman - editor (referral link) https://amzn.to/444wP3K Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks! The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664 I use GuruFocus for historical, financial and valuation data, screeners, charts and comparison tools, to help me make smarter long-term investing decisions (refferal link): https://www.gurufocus.com/?r=2c95d5930bb2537b2e0265075fb66581 Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

This episode discusses recent comments by three stock market investors, including legendary fund managers Stanley Druckenmiller and Joel Greenblatt, focusing on the question: we know there’s an artificial intelligence (AI) boom going on right now, but is there an AI stock bubble? We look at what these investors are saying about AI stocks, Nvidia stock (NVDA), the current stock market, and how they think it’s going to play out. I also give my opinion on the topics. Timestamps: 00:00 AI stock bubble intro 00:14 Stan Druckemmiller: Separating the wheat from the chaff. 05:17 Joel Greenblatt: Current opportunities rhyming with the Dotcom Bubble. 08:57 Jim Bianco - Wealthion: AI stocks are “way out there in bubble-land...” 12:37 My final thoughts: AI is a long term secular move but... Related episodes: Why Druckenmiller Owns Nvidia Despite "Nosebleed Territory” https://youtu.be/QP496jwcumk Microsoft to Challenge Google Search Using OpenAI's ChatGPT https://youtu.be/Vh42ZgADo5k The AI Race is ON! Google Showcases New AI Products https://youtu.be/xL7MvGAjdew Interviews referenced in the episode: Bloomberg (June 2023): Druckenmiller on How AI is Dominating His Long Portfolio https://youtu.be/NERglanBMIk HFA Fireside Chat with Hedge Fund Manager Joel Greenblatt https://youtu.be/utP9ZVog554 Wealthion: AI Stocks Definitely In A Bubble Right Now | Jim Bianco https://youtu.be/MazHnXttvQk The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664 Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks! I use GuruFocus for historical, financial and valuation data, screeners, charts and comparison tools, to help me make smarter long-term investing decisions (refferal link): https://www.gurufocus.com/?r=2c95d5930bb2537b2e0265075fb66581 Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.