Doomer Optimism

Antitrust attorney Basel Musharbash discusses recent political whiplash in beef markets and the broader question of how actually to enforce anti-monopoly law. The conversation covers why ranchers erupted over being blamed for high beef prices, the history of promises versus lackluster execution going back to early 1900s meatpacking cases, and how the Packers and Stockyards Act was supposed to regulate these companies but never really worked except briefly in the 1940s, Reagan's 1982 announcement ending merger enforcement and the five year transformation that followed, the difference between free markets and accessible competitive markets, why monopolies arise even without government help through predatory pricing and exclusive contracts, the paradox of needing to use power to break up concentrated power, Robert Jackson's 1937 speech on economic democracy without bureaucracy or regimentation, concrete immediate actions like debarment from government contracts versus multi-year DOJ investigations, why Congress could pass a breakup bill instead of waiting on agencies, the political opportunity for either party to outflank the other on this issue, Dan Osborne's economic dictatorship framing, and why economists should maybe just be ignored entirely when they dismiss rancher testimony with modeling exercises.Basel is Managing Attorney at the Antimonopoly Counsel, specializing in antitrust and trade regulation with a focus on agriculture, rural economies, and consumer protection. He has represented farmers against meat processors, defended workers from illegal noncompete agreements, and advocated before the FTC, DOJ, and USDA. Basel authored the landmark 2024 report “Kings Over the Necessaries of Life” on monopolization in American agriculture. His work has been featured in Reuters, AP, Time Magazine, CNBC, and other major outlets.

Welcome to Beef Week! 🐄Nate sits down with rancher, entrepreneur, and farm advocate Mike Callicrate for a deep dive into the crisis facing America's cattle industry—and the path forward.Mike traces the devastating consolidation of the beef industry from the 1980s to today, explaining how we went from 20 competitive cattle buyers to just four dominant packers controlling 85% of the market. He shares his firsthand experience of being blackballed by the industry after speaking out, forced to watch his 12,000-head feedlot sit empty despite having 14,000 cattle ready to sell.But this isn't just a story of corporate capture—it's a blueprint for resistance. Mike details how he built Ranch Foods Direct, creating a model that bypasses the exploitative middlemen by connecting producers directly to consumers. He reveals the shocking inefficiencies of industrial meat processing (700 gallons of water per animal vs. 30-50 gallons in small plants) and explains why the "efficiency" narrative is a myth designed to justify consolidation.The conversation covers critical topics, including:How boxed beef became a weapon to eliminate small regional packersWhy USDA inspection protects big players while crushing small operationsThe real reason beef is safer when carcasses hang for 6-7 days (and why big packers won't do it)Mike's vision for "maker-owned markets"—community food hubs where producers own the real estate and control their destinyWhy breaking up retail giants like Walmart is as important as addressing packer monopoliesMike offers a third way between predatory capitalism and socialism: distributed ownership. His maker-owned market concept shows how communities can rebuild local food systems that create wealth, foster connection, and produce genuinely better food.Whether you're a producer fighting for survival, a consumer wanting better food, or someone concerned about rural America's collapse, this conversation provides both the context to understand how we got here and the vision to imagine something better.

Building an Edible Perennial Nursery with Nick Wren Nick Wren of Living Soil Tree Farms joins Jason to talk about the practical realities of starting and running an edible perennial nursery. Nick shares his journey from civil engineering to tree farming, explaining why he became passionate about native nut trees, fruit trees, and woody perennials.They cover the nuts and bolts of nursery operations, including seasonal rhythms throughout the year, the use of air-pruning beds for propagating seedlings, and the advantages of growing trees from seed versus grafted cultivars. Nick discusses the challenges of meeting market demand, balancing online shipping with local sales, and the economics of different scale operations.Key topics include strategies for protecting seeds from rodents, managing deer pressure, the role of composting and soil biology in tree health, and why greenhouse infrastructure is less critical for native tree production than many people assume. Nick makes a strong case for black walnuts, hazelnuts, and other underutilized native trees that could play a larger role in regional food systems.The episode also explores the broader philosophy behind small-scale tree nurseries, including the importance of preserving genetic diversity through seed saving, the potential for silvopasture systems, and how this work connects to building more resilient local food economies. Nick shares practical advice for anyone interested in starting their own nursery operation, from building air pruning boxes to grading and pricing trees. For those interested in edible landscaping, permaculture, or small-scale agriculture, this conversation offers both inspiration and actionable knowledge about working with native and edible perennial plants.Connect with Nick:Website: livingsoiltreefarm.comYouTube: Living Soil Tree Farm

Jason and Ashley welcome back Chris Smaje to discuss his new book, “Finding Lights in a Dark Age,” now available for purchase. Chris is a returning guest who first appeared on the podcast to discuss his influential book “Small Farm Future,” which helped shape many of the show’s conversations about agricultural futures and sustainability. He returned previously to discuss “Say No to a Farm-Free Future,” his critique of George Monbiot and proponents of lab-grown food alternatives. In this episode, Chris discusses his third book, which assumes a transition to a lower energy future and explores practical approaches to living well despite new challenges.The conversation covers his solar system model of political organization, distributism and Catholic social teaching, the complexities of managing commons and collective resources, lessons learned from running his own farm, and the potential for relocalization of food systems and community structures.Chris draws on his experiences managing a small farm with a community of people, including challenges with woodland commons, cooperative work arrangements, and the practical realities of collective decision-making. The discussion explores demographic challenges, migration patterns, the role of family and household economies, and the distinction between romanticized visions of agrarian life and the nuanced, practical arrangements required to make local systems function effectively.The book argues for a more distributed, locally-oriented approach to politics and economics, moving away from centralized state power toward bottom-up community organization. Chris explores how people might navigate the breakdown of high-energy modernity by developing local autonomy, access to land, and new forms of community organization that balance individual agency with collective needs. The conversation ends with reflections on what flourishing might look like in a post-abundance future and why the so-called Dark Ages may not have been dark for everyone.

Nigel Best doesn’t have time for your bullshit. He’s too busy welding gates, rotating cattle, building spiral staircases, and conducting “illicit beef transactions” in Craigslist parking lots.Missouri woodworker and regenerative rancher Nigel Best joins Jason and Nate to talk about what it actually takes to make a living on the land—without going broke, without selling your soul, and without waiting for Washington to save you.In this episode:Why coming up hard isn’t a strategy (but flat tires and crooked fingers are part of the deal)The truth about rotational grazing: genius in wet years, dumbass in droughtsHow to raise beef when customers complain about prices and the president says you’re greedyThe case for land value tax as the only moral tax (and why nobody’s entitled to your heartbeats)Why the informal economy beats W-2 farms and digital surveillance every timeMeat packer monopolies vs. the last stand of independent ranchersTwo competing theories of change: political antitrust warfare or agorist opt-outWhy every kid should work construction with crotchety old men before graduating high schoolFair warning: Nigel solves exactly zero problems in this episode. What he does offer is three decades of hard-won wisdom from someone who’s actually been “out there in the rain at midnight with their hand up a cow.” No Instagram-perfect farm content. No verbatim regurgitation of regenerative ag books. Just the unvarnished reality of feeding yourself, your family, and your neighbors in a system designed to extract value from everyone who touches it.If you’re tired of influencers peddling theories and want to hear from someone who’s actually dragging their knuckles through it, this one’s for you.Guest: Nigel Best (@NigelBest5)Hosts: Jason & NateTopics: Regenerative Agriculture, Land Tax, Agorism, Beef Industry, Rural Economics, Informal Markets

Why We Need Each Other More Than Everhttps://undpress.nd.edu/9780268210335/the-dignity-of-dependence/https://www.compactmag.com/article/the-great-feminization/Ashley welcomes back Leah Sargeant to discuss her new book, The Dignity of Dependence: A Feminist Manifesto. They explore two core arguments: that women's equality with men doesn't depend on being interchangeable with them, and that no humans are truly autonomous; we're all dependent on one another throughout our lives.The conversation moves from "doom" to optimism, examining how modern society tries to flatten sex differences and promote an illusion of self-reliance, particularly around pregnancy, motherhood, and the workplace. Leah critiques the approach of treating women as "defective men" who need to suppress their biology and feminine qualities to succeed in male-normed environments.Ashley and Leah discuss Helen Andrews' controversial essay on workplace feminization, the false ideal of the independent individual, and how this myth fails everyone—from infants to aging populations. They explore practical solutions, including community building, workplace flexibility, policy changes like baby bonuses and caregiver Social Security credits, and the importance of creating space for interdependence at every scale.The episode celebrates the seasons of life, the necessity of mutual dependence, and finding dignity in our need for one another, from the everyday juggling of school pickups and neighborhood networks to the profound vulnerabilities of pregnancy, illness, and aging.

Fresh from dinner with Wendell Berry in Kentucky, the crew discusses Paul Kingsnorth’s new book and the deep tensions in American agriculture. From Trump’s controversial beef deal with Argentina to the packing monopolies squeezing ranchers, we explore why our food system prioritizes industrial products over actually feeding people.Topics include: the soybean-ethanol scam, why 80% of corn never becomes human food, land prices and the return-to-the-land movement, the death of email jobs and rise of excess labor, and why California could have fed tens of millions on acorns and salmon alone. Plus: the case for a new agrarian think tank, the difference between living as creatures versus machines, and why we need a million cowboys to restore America’s ecosystems.Featuring reflections on nationalism vs. patriotism, the regulatory capture of agriculture, fiat currency, and farmland prices, and why the real abundance agenda has nothing to do with cheap beef from Argentina.

Creating member networks, local food systems, and recession-proof community infrastructureJason talks with Tres, co-founder of GreenBox Homes, about creating a regenerative landscaping company that competes with traditional lawn care services. They discuss the business model of providing weekly yard care focused on building soil and ecosystems rather than just aesthetic maintenance, creating member networks for sharing plants and resources, and the massive supply-demand gap in the native plant industry.Tres shares how his Catholic faith informs his environmental mission, the potential for vertical integration through nurseries and material recovery, and his vision for a replicable, distributist model that could transform millions of acres. The conversation covers practical business strategy, the spiritual dimensions of working with land, and opportunities for others to enter the growing regenerative landscaping market.

AI safety researcher Nate Soares explains why he believes there's at least a 95% chance that current AI development will lead to human extinction, and why we're accelerating toward that outcome. Soares, who has been working on AI alignment since 2012, breaks down the fundamental problem: we're building increasingly intelligent systems without any ability to control what they actually want or pursue.The conversation covers current AI behavior that wasn't programmed: threatening users, keeping psychotic people in delusional states, and repeatedly lying when caught. Soares explains why these aren't bugs to be fixed but symptoms of a deeper problem. We can't point AI systems at any specific goal, not even something simple like "make a diamond." Instead, we get systems with bizarre drives that are only distantly related to their training.Soares addresses the "racing China" argument and why it misunderstands the threat. He explains why AI engineers can build powerful systems without understanding what's actually happening inside them, and why this matters. Using examples from evolutionary biology, he shows why there's no reason to expect AI systems to develop human-like morality or values.The discussion covers why a catastrophic warning event probably won't help, what international coordination could look like, and why current safety efforts fall short of what's needed. Soares is direct about industry motivations, technical limitations, and the timeline we're facing.Nate Soares has been researching AI alignment and safety since 2012. He works at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), one of the pioneering organizations focused on ensuring advanced AI systems are aligned with human values.

Join the Doomer Optimism crew for their first-ever live group chat as they tackle the big questions facing our technologically saturated world. Ashley, Nate, Jason, Peter, and Patrick gather to discuss Paul Kingsnorth’s new book Against the Machine, the creeping influence of AI in our daily lives, and whether we’re heading toward accelerated collapse or just another step down.The conversation meanders from the ethics of AI chatbots (including Amish farmers launching their own) to the practical realities of keeping phones away from kids in an increasingly digital world. Nate shares hard-won wisdom from rebuilding after his house fire, while Peter warns about the looming cattle market collapse that could reshape American agriculture. Jason makes the case for sheep, Ashley name-drops her upcoming dinner with Wendell Berry (yes, really), and everyone debates whether we should accelerate into the chaos or dig in our heels and resist.Topics covered: screen-free parenting strategies, the difference between tools and crutches, why COVID lockdowns weren’t all bad, the impossible economics of small-scale beef production, John Michael Greer’s stair-step collapse theory, and what it really takes to build resilience in an age of affluence and anxiety.Plus: Patrick performs a house tour nobody asked for, Nate explains why relationships matter more than bunkers, and the group grapples with whether the machine can ever truly be stopped—or if the best we can do is stay human despite it all.