Coburn Ventures Podcast

Two weeks ago, we all learned about the Colonial Oil pipeline ransomware attack on the East Coast of the United States. It was a high profile hit, but was then followed by an odd comment from the ransomware group saying in effect, “Sorry, we didn’t mean to actually disrupt the pipeline!” in other words, we’re here to be quiet and not make too much of a problem but we are still going to steal your money.  While we know conceptually that ransomware attacks are pervasive, we called JC Herz to get her deeper and experienced perspective. We know there has been a significant underspend in security that has created a massive systemic arbitrage for ransomware attacks.  We know that the bias and competitive pressure for tech spending is around innovation and speed, not fixing vulnerabilities. We also know that the “attack surface”, grows bigger with every application we connect to the network. Finally, an Executive Order in the US from May 12 may increase reporting requirements if and when companies are breached and pay ransom. It's an attempt to start to deal with the problem collectively, but it may have some unintended consequences. As investors, what do we do with all of this? Today we start with a big download of context and perspective from JC. 

Today we compliment a piece Pip is writing on formulating a valuable arbitrage in investing. For Coburn Ventures, we use change as the lens of our arbitrage, so we talk about pattern recognition as it relates to change, and how it can develop into high conviction positions. Of course, investment philosophy --such as change investing-- and process are intertwined. A potentially valuable question to have in mind while listening: which parts of your process seem most important in developing that arbitrage opportunity over the long term? Thanks for listening.

What can we do to assess where companies are positioned among the fast-moving currents of Digital Transformation? What do we mean when we say "Digital Transformation" anyway? In this conversation, Pip will give some background on why this is so important right now and then we jump in with Michael Stich, now of Court Avenue, where he helps marketers understand how to use innovation to create value for their companies and for end customers.  Michael has been on both the agency side and the client side with roles that demanded an understanding of new technologies and how to best translate these inevitable changes and evolutions into value for clients marketing to consumers. Stay until the end when he offers an ever-so casual two-minute summary of the past two decades of innovation and the waves of adaptation businesses and customers have absorbed. Lastly, in the closing I do repeat Michael's attributes of creating value for customers and for improving businesses internally. I hope you'll find these points useful in assessing where a sector or company may stand in addressing the rush of innovation coming their way.  PS: This podcast pairs well with the Questions for Management with John Dillon, a CEO who knows firsthand many times over what it takes to absorb new digital innovations into a company culture.

We are hearing the term "resilience" or "resiliency" so much this year. Biologist Maria Souza continually reminds us that, “Without disruption, there can be no resilience.” So we thought it worthwhile to go under the surface on this topic. Pip starts us with seven factors or attributes of resilience. It's an attempt to get more specific and granular as to what we mean by "being resilient", so that we can then use this clearer definition as a litmus test or marker to "measure" your resilience or that of your team, or to be able to recognize resilience in company culture or management teams. About five minutes in, Dr. Morris Pickens joins us and offers his usual clear and simple examples of where common slip-ups may be, and some interesting observations from his world about reframing the mental process to be more resilient. 

This week the Super League of Premier League Football was announced: a collection of the best and brightest franchises to come into their own, potentially even more profitable league.  Just as quickly, the league was extinguished completely. From fan outrage to JP Morgan finding itself in the spotlight for underwriting the concept, this week has been a dramatic one for the league and football fans all over the world. We take the opportunity to zoom in on the news, as it so quickly and thoroughly collided old-world single-stakeholder thinking with new world multi-stakeholder ESG sensibilities. The Super League provides a helpful case to keep in mind when we think about the intrinsic and intangible value that we are tasked to get curious about when it comes to ESG. I think more business leaders will be tuning their antennae to the topic, because when fans hear about a power move announced in the dark of night, they just might surround your team bus with those ever-so valuable players inside of it or hang banners on your stadium with signs that say “Super Greed” instead of Super League and “Fans not Customers”.  Are they one or the other? Or both? 

About 10 years ago, we started talking about “The Future and History of Asking Questions”. It was an acknowledgment of the exponential growth of our ability to ask questions *and receive answers about them*. We are seeing so many derivatives off of this phenomenon. One of those derivatives that we’ll talk about today is that as the expectation increased that we can ask just about any question and get a reasonable answer, we take that into all areas of our life. What used to be seen as “demanding” is now normal, what used to be seen as table stakes for great customer service, is now insufficient. This future and history of asking questions may seem like a simple concept, but it's reverberating throughout our marketplaces and individual behaviors and results in profound changes in business.  

Today we have Zak Dychtwald, Founder of Young China Group, joining us to help us understand the global young consumer and specifically, all the ways we may be misunderstanding the global consumer with regard to "Young China".  Zak wanted to know what the future held, he found himself living in China. With that experience and his lens on demographics, he has become a bridge for decision-makers, many in the western world, to understand the rapid pace of change in China. Zak will walk us through a framework to reveal more of what we may not be fully understanding, and he offers a multitude of important observations along the way. I hope you enjoy it.

Explore how a predetermined game plan can revolutionize investment decision-making. Learn the importance of clarity and structure in prioritizing investment opportunities. Discover strategies for enhancing productivity through targeted dialogue in meetings. Hear insights on recognizing biases and evaluating risks to improve analysis. Analysts are encouraged to stay focused on relevant data to extract valuable insights. This approach leads to better outcomes and a more disciplined methodology in navigating the complexities of investments.

In this conversation, JP Rangaswami is going to help us slow down our thinking, breaking apart our tendency to literally jump to conclusions. He’s going to talk about the four stages of data development. So that you have a bit of background before we start, here they are:  Observation: What just happened?  Diagnosis: Why did it happen? Prediction: What’s going to happen next?  Prescription:  What should I do about it? JP has some great examples to illustrate these four stages in real-world decision-making. Just listening to this conversation helped me heighten my awareness of when I conflate these steps, I think you're likely to find some new insights too. Enjoy.

Discover the art of crafting clear investment thesis statements that function like testable hypotheses. Learn how refining these statements can enhance team communication and improve decision-making. Delve into the complexities of investment analysis and the significance of simplifying arguments to highlight key points. Explore practical examples, including Netflix's evolution, which exemplify the importance of clarity in investment theses. This insightful discussion provides a roadmap for achieving focus and precision in the bustling world of investments.