Economics Explored

Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgment, discusses superforecasting techniques. Topics include characteristics of superforecasters, pattern recognition, bias elimination, Bayes' Theorem, group size for success, and tips for becoming a superforecaster.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers argues for values-based capitalism and against neoliberalism in a January 2023 essay in the Australian Monthly magazine. In this episode, show host Gene Tunny discusses the Treasurer’s essay with Dr John Humphreys. John is the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance (ATA) Chief Economist and the founder of the Australian Liberal Democrats. Gene and John discuss just how literally we should take the Treasurer, the risks of the so-called co-investment approach, and whether the Treasurer is arguing for socialism (or a different -ism).      This episode features audio from an ATA Econ Chat livestream broadcast on 31 January 23. You can watch the whole thing here:https://www.facebook.com/AusTaxpayers/videos/509950911277607You can follow the ATA on various platforms including Facebook and YouTube.You can follow John Humphreys on Twitter.Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP175Jim Chalmers’ idea of co-investing with the private sector [4:21]Regarding superannuation funds increasingly having social goals that they aim to meet as well as financial goals [9:12]The Australian stage 3 tax cuts and values-based capitalism: are they compatible?  [12:37]ESG, stakeholder capitalism, and socialism [15:24]How does the Treasurer intend to direct investment? [23:28]How a poor government policy can lead to another poor government policy [27:31]The social impact investment bank expected in the 2023 Australian budget [32:34]Links relevant to the conversationJim Chalmers’ essay Capitalism after the CrisesClean Energy Finance Corporation Financial Outcomes 2021-22Australian Government principles for social impact investing | Treasury.gov.auImpact Investing Won’t Save Capitalism  CreditsThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Please consider signing up to receive our email updates and to access our e-book Top Ten Insights from Economics at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

The world’s population keeps growing and passed 8 billion in late 2022, but China’s population is now falling. There are concerns over what that means for its economy and the wider global economy. Is Paul Krugman right that a falling population means a weak Chinese economy? Show host Gene Tunny and his colleague Tim Hughes discuss the possible implications of a shrinking China, as well as global population projections out to 2100. The conversation touches on the environmental impact of a growing population and how well-placed we are to manage environmental challenges.    Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP174The world’s population is on the rise and passed 8 billion in November 2022 [4:24]Why post-war population growth was so strong [7:43]What does a declining Chinese population mean for the Chinese and global economies? [14:09]The importance of immigration in Australia population growth [19:27]How the world’s population will eventually level out  toward the end of the century [23:35]Can governments solve environmental challenges? Discussion of the hole in the ozone layer and the Montreal Protocol [30:09]Paul Krugman vs Dean Baker on the future of China [42:07]Tim asks how do you maintain a growth mindset in a declining population? How do you make it work? [47:25] Will demographics and a weaker economy bring down the Chinese administration? [53:06] Links relevant to the conversationUN World Population Prospects 2022 datahttps://population.un.org/wpp/Paul Krugman’s article “The problem(s) with China’s population drop”https://themarketherald.com.au/the-problems-with-chinas-population-drop-2023-01-19/  Dean Baker’s article “Paul Krugman, China’s Demographic Crisis, and the Which Way Is Up Problem in Economics”https://cepr.net/paul-krugman-chinas-demographic-crisis-and-the-which-way-is-up-problem-in-economics/China’s old-age dependency ratiohttps://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/Ratios/OADR/65plus/15-64/156Stanford Business School article “Baby Bust: Could Population Decline Spell the End of Economic Growth?” discussing Charles I Jones views on the link between population, innovation, and economic growthhttps://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/baby-bust-could-population-decline-spell-end-economic-growthCreditsThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Please consider signing up to receive our email updates and to access our e-book Top Ten Insights from Economics at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Last year we saw the beginning of the normalization of interest rates and monetary policy, as central banks responded to accelerating inflation. Show host Gene Tunny talks about the current tightening cycle and when it might end with his colleague Arturo Espinoza. Among other things, Gene and Arturo discuss what history tells us about typical interest rates and returns on capital, referencing UK bank rate since 1694, interest rates on UK government consols, and returns on land written about by Jane Austen and Honoré de Balzac. They also consider whether we might see 17-18 percent interest rates again in Australia, rates which were last seen in 1989-90. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP173What’s been happening with interest rates? [3:00]What is monetary policy normalization? [6:00]How many more interest rate increases will be needed? [11:11]Will we have a recession this year? [19:12]Is there a risk that we could get back to the crazily high interest rates seen in 1989-90 in Australia? [24:00]What is the equilibrium rate of interest? What is the real interest rate? [26:54]The main takeaway from this episode: monetary policy is still in a tightening cycle because inflation is too high [38:43]Links relevant to the conversationData released since the episode was recordedAustralian retail trade fell 3.9% in December, suggesting interest rate increases are starting to bite, meaning the RBA faces an even more difficult challenge in deciding how many more interest rate increases to make:https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/retail-and-wholesale-trade/retail-trade-australia/dec-2022 CBC article “U.S. inflation and consumer spending eased in December, new numbers show”:https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/us-consumer-spending-holidays-1.6728173Nine News story “Inflation in Australia rises to higher-than-expected 7.8 per cent”:https://www.9news.com.au/finance/australia-inflation-consumer-price-index-december-quarter/9ef0ed13-e606-4c9e-b7db-feaccfae39fbInflation targetsUS: 2%; see https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2022/09/02/inflation-part-3-what-is-the-feds-current-goal-has-the-fed-met-its-inflation-mandateAustralia: 2-3%; see https://www.rba.gov.au/inflation/inflation-target.htmlUK: 2%; see https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policyBank of Finland article on monetary policy normalisation:https://www.bofbulletin.fi/en/2022/3/what-is-monetary-policy-normalisation/Chatham Financial article on US tightening cycles:https://www.chathamfinancial.com/insights/historical-interest-rate-tightening-cyclesJo Masters, Barrenjoey Chief Economist on how “Everything must go right for Australia to dodge a recession”https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/australia-will-dodge-close-call-recession-20221216-p5c71bChart on historical UK bank rate:https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NDH7WjQBY0ZjWDWgY430qZdrrIf017_4/view?usp=share_linkChart on central bank policy interest rates since 1960:https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Mrzre-ijAKAvrU0j4YeQt71FkTr-gzob/view?usp=share_linkChart on inflation in the US, UK and Australia:https://drive.google.com/file/d/11lp880Wwb9bk_GI5wJ0EQ975h-ZkAuDK/view?usp=share_linkWikipedia article on the Fisher equation:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisher_equationWikipedia article on UK consols:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consol_(bond)Guardian article on “UK bonds that financed first world war to be redeemed 100 years later”:https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/oct/31/uk-first-world-war-bonds-redeemedWhat Jane Austen can tell us about historical rates of return:https://janeaustensworld.com/2008/02/10/the-economics-of-pride-and-prejudice-or-why-a-single-man-with-a-fortune-of-4000-per-year-is-a-desirable-husband/CreditsThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Economics Explored is available via  Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Planet Earth Cleaning Co. and Ecobin founder John Engelander proposes that environmental and business sustainability can go hand-in-hand. Show host Gene Tunny asks John about the benefits and costs of businesses adopting more environmentally-friendly practices. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What we discuss with John Engelander, founder of Planet Earth Cleaning Co. and EcobinJohn’s epiphany that led to the birth of the Planet Earth Cleaning Company [4:15]What are the costs and benefits of adopting environmentally friendly business practices? [8:00]“It’s not an investment if it is destroying the planet” discussion, in which Gene mentions how economics has been trying to account for environmental impacts [20:38]Do we have enough time to avoid a climate/environmental crisis? [25:50]John asks Gene if we need to own cars? [33:54]John’s final thoughts on the importance of being a conscious consumer [44:29]About this episode’s guest: John EngelanderA true force of nature, CEO & Founder John was green way before it was cool. It was his belief in profit with a purpose that led him to start The Planet Earth Cleaning Company circa 1994, and he has been inspiring people and companies to be greener and better for the planet ever since.In 2007, John completed his certificate in Sustainability Advocacy at Swinburne University.  He believes, “when you look after the planet, you look after yourself”.   When we influence others to take responsible actions there is a ripple effect.  And that’s part of doing good by being good.Today, John works with people that are looking for a healthier alternative & genuinely cares about making a difference to the planet, whether that’s through The Planet Earth Cleaning Company, the EcoBin business, or his personal advocacy & public speaking. John believes “conscious consumption is a great way to start.  Afterall, less is more, and your planet will be healthier for it.” Now that’s good for business.Out of the office John burns off some of his high energy levels with water sports, snow skiing, mountain bike riding, cardio pilates and enjoying time in nature. And when not running after his kids and dogs, he likes to tinker on the piano, watch movies and have dinner with friends.Links relevant to the conversationJohn’s business EcoBin:https://www.ecobin.com.au/Quote by Vandana Shiva:https://quotefancy.com/quote/925201/Vandana-Shiva-It-s-not-an-investment-if-its-destroying-the-planetMastercard study quoted by Gene:https://www.mastercard.com/news/insights/2021/consumer-attitudes-environment/CSIRO article on natural capital accounting:https://ecos.csiro.au/knowing-the-price-of-nature-the-rise-of-natural-capital-accounting/UN article on The Rise, Fall and Rethinking of Green GDP:https://seea.un.org/news/rise-fall-and-rethinking-green-gdpAustralian Government guidance note on cost-benefit analysis, which makes it clear CBAs should consider environmental impacts, quantitatively if possible but otherwise qualitatively:https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/cosst-benefit-analysis.docxCreditsThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. 

Professor Allen Morrison has been studying China for over three decades and he’s an expert on the Enterprise China model, the close relationship between business and state in China. Chinese companies take the lead from Beijing to help meet state objectives, including reduced dependency on the west. In return they get competitive advantages over western businesses trying to break into China. In this episode, Prof. Morrison, from the Thunderbird School of Global Management at Arizona State University, talks to show host Gene Tunny about his new book with INSEAD’s Prof. Stewart Black on Enterprise China. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What we discuss with Prof. MorrisonHow the business model in China differs from the model in the west [01:50]How the Chinese Communist Party oversees businesses in China [10:20]What western businesses need to know when doing business in China [12:40]Does China have an imperial ambition? [17:28] Companies which have done well and those which have done badly in China [22:29]Challenges to the Enterprise China model and the CCP [27:48]Gene’s takeaways from the episode [39:30]About this episode’s guest: Allen MorrisonAllen J. Morrison is professor in the Thunderbird School of Global Management. Morrison previously served as CEO and director-general, senior advisor for global management education and executive education initiatives at Arizona State University. Before joining ASU in 2014, Morrison was professor of global management and the holder of the Kristian Gerhard Jebsen Chair for Responsible Leadership in the Maritime Industry at IMD. Professor Morrison was also director of the IMD Global CEO Center, which focuses on the challenges CEOs face while leading their companies in the global economy.For further information about Prof. Morrison, check out his ASU page:https://search.asu.edu/profile/2551923Links relevant to the conversationGet a copy of Enterprise China: Adopting a Competitive Strategy for Business Success:https://amzn.to/3YMb1aIProf. Morrison’s article “Competing with “Enterprise China” vs. Chinese Enterprises” on the Thunderbird School of Global Management website:https://thunderbird.asu.edu/thought-leadership/insights/competing-enterprise-china-vs-chinese-enterprisesWilliam Kirby’s HBR article “The real reason Uber is giving up in China”:https://hbr.org/2016/08/the-real-reason-uber-is-giving-up-in-chinaCreditsThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Economics Explored is available via  Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Energy market expert Joshua Stabler shares his views on the current Aussie energy crisis and how well placed Australia and other countries are to transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions. Learn why Josh thinks that transition could be disorderly, and learn about the role self-driving EVs could play and whether Josh thinks nuclear energy and hydrogen are realistic options for Australia. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About this episode’s guest: Joshua StablerJoshua Stabler is Managing Director of Energy Edge. He has extensive experience in supply-side market operations for the electricity and gas sectors, and as an advisor and system developer in the Australian energy industry.Joshua is the architect of the Gas Market Analysis Tool (GMAT), which is utilised by gas producers, LNG participants, gas generators, end users, financial intermediaries and banks. Joshua is also the author of The Edge – Gas Market Update report.Joshua has a BE (Computer Systems).You can follow Josh on LinkedIn:https://au.linkedin.com/in/josh-stabler-6683895bLinks relevant to the conversationEnergy Edge, the advisory business Josh is Managing Director of:https://www.energyedge.com.au/What are Renewable Energy Zones? https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/what-is-renewable-energy-zone/AbbreviationsEV Electric vehicleNEM National Electricity MarketREZ Renewable Energy Zone CreditsThanks to Josh Crotts for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Please consider signing up to receive our email updates and to access our e-book Top Ten Insights from Economics at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Corporations such as Google, Amazon, and Live Nation are allegedly taking advantage of chokepoints in the economy, earning excessive profits. That’s the thesis of a new book, Chokepoint Capitalism: how big tech and big content captured creative labour markets, and how we'll win them back. The authors are Uni. of Melbourne Law Professor Rebecca Giblin and writer and activist Cory Doctorow. Show host Gene Tunny speaks with Prof. Giblin about Chokepoint Capitalism in this episode. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About this episode’s guest: Rebecca GiblinRebecca Giblin is an ARC Future Fellow and Professor at Melbourne Law School, and the Director of the Intellectual Property Research Institute of Australia. Her work sits at the intersection of law and culture, focusing on creators’ rights, access to knowledge and culture, technology regulation and copyright. Using quantitative, qualitative, doctrinal and comparative methods, she leads interdisciplinary teams with expertise across data science, cultural economics, literary sociology, information research and law to better understand how law impacts the creation and dissemination of creative works.You can follow Rebecca on Twitter: https://twitter.com/rgibliLinks relevant to the conversationWhere you can buy Chokepoint Capitalism:https://amzn.to/3HohDFVWebsite about the book:https://chokepointcapitalism.com/CreditsThanks to Josh Crotts for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Please consider signing up to receive our email updates and to access our e-book Top Ten Insights from Economics at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

In his new book, Understandable Economics, Howard Yaruss from NYU argues “Understanding Our Economy Is Easier Than You Think and More Important Than You Know.” Howard is an Adjunct Instructor in economics and business at NYU. Previously, he was Executive Vice President and General Counsel of Radian Group, a mortgage insurance company. Howard lives in Manhattan and serves on his local community board. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. Links relevant to the conversationWhere you can buy Understandable Economics:https://amzn.to/3VCsxMVHoward Yaruss’s website:https://howardyaruss.com/EP159 with Romina Boccia from the Cato Institute on the future U.S. fiscal crisis:https://economicsexplored.com/2022/10/03/the-future-us-fiscal-crisis-and-how-to-avert-it-w-romina-boccia-cato-institute-ep159/CreditsThanks to Josh Crotts for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Please consider signing up to receive our email updates and to access our e-book Top Ten Insights from Economics at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

In The New Yorker, Wingham Rowan was described as a “labor reformer” who “wants to reimagine labor markets for the digital age.” In episode 167 of Economics Explored, Wingham talks to host Gene Tunny about the potential of Public Official e-Markets. Wingham is a former British TV presenter who is now the managing director at Modern Markets for All (MM4A), a non-profit seeking to advise governments on the possibilities of new market technologies. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. Links relevant to the conversationWingham Rowan’s Modern Markets for All website:http://modernmarketsforall.com/TheMM4A non-profit:https://www.mm4a.socialNew Yorker coverage of Wingham’s work:https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/should-gig-work-be-government-runCIGI article by Wingham in which he argues “Market platforms are a natural monopoly; governments should dare to think about how they might initiate an alternative version for citizens and businesses.”https://www.cigionline.org/articles/its-time-to-build-public-utilities-for-essential-digital-services/Modern Markets Initiative: https://www.modernmarketsinitiative.org/Articles on workforce scheduling tools:https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20151116006112/en/Kronos-Workforce-Central-8-Fastest-Adopted-Product-Releasehttp://modernmarketsforall.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/210120-Kronos-briefing.pdfNB Kronos has subsequently rebranded as UKG: https://www.ukg.comOn the  growth of irregular work hours:https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/31/business/economy/volatile-income-economy-jobs.htmlQuality Jobs Index from Cornell University:https://qz.com/1752676/the-job-quality-index-is-the-economic-indicator-weve-been-missingThe UK government program (then called “Slivers-of-Time” working):https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/nov/14/welfare-reform-working-slivers-of-timeThe fate of the Universal Credit program which the program was eventually folded into: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/15/universal-credit-colossal-catastrophe-national-audit-office   Website about MM4A’s gig work markets: www.BeyondJobs.comThe Californian platform in action: www.cedah.videoThe local website about the program: www.WorkLB.orgWikipedia article on the Tobin tax which Wingham mentions a few times:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tobin_tax  CreditsThanks to Wingham Rowan for the great conversation and the links provided. Also thanks to Josh Crotts for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Please consider signing up to receive our email updates and to access our e-book Top Ten Insights from Economics at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.