Global Security Briefing

As the final electoral results trickle in, we discusses what the midterm elections can tell us about the future of US domestic and foreign policies. Neil Melvin sits down with Max Bergmann, Director of the Europe Program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC. With an anticipated strong Republican win heralding the prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the ballots were seen as a clear signpost as to the direction of travel of US politics, with a likely immediate impact on Washington’s foreign and security policy – especially its support for Ukraine. What do the results indicate about the larger political battle being prepared for the 2024 presidential elections? Could the world still be facing a shock on the scale of the election of Donald Trump in 2016?

Originally published 9 November 2022. Six months in, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol still treads a careful balance on some policy matters. Veerle speaks with Ms Saeme Kim, Korea Foundation Visiting Fellow in RUSI’s Indo-Pacific Programme from 2021–2022. Saeme explores the policy continuities and changes in the Republic of Korea (ROK) from former President Moon Jae-in to current President Yoon Suk-yeol, outlining the country’s soon-to-be-launched Indo-Pacific Strategy and some bold new endeavours with partners like the US. As tensions with Beijing and Pyongyang remain, greater cooperation with partners in Europe and the Indo-Pacific could come at a cost in Seoul’s own immediate regional environment. Despite this, a more outward-facing and networked South Korea with expertise in specific subregions and policy areas is likely to materialise. The UK, in particular, stands to gain from working more closely with Seoul, and Saeme offers a few ideas in this regard.

As the world watches, protests continue to rage across Iran. With protests continuing across the country, Dr Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, Senior Research Fellow, RUSI International Security Studies, to consider Iran’s future as it faces a changing regional and global security. They assess whether the protests can be a catalyst for domestic reform, and how these internal developments are shaping Iran’s foreign policy. What are the implications of Tehran’s growing relationship with Moscow for the war against Ukraine? What might future regional relations between Iran and China look like?

Originally published 26 October 2022. Does the recent Congress indicate triumph or challenges ahead for China? Veerle Nouwens speaks with two guests on China’s 20th Party Congress, in which Xi Jinping attained an unprecedented third term in office and brought in a set of personnel changes in Party governance. Raffaello Pantucci, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow, explores how Xi’s speech and the Party Congress’s work report indicate an emphasis on internal stability and continuity in domestic and foreign affairs, including on Taiwan. Dr Lai I-Chung, President of Taiwan’s Prospect Foundation, explores differences in language and the listing of topics in the work report as a possible indication of subtle messaging to audiences that Beijing is serious about reunification. An accelerated push for peaceful reunification is to be expected with below-the-threshold advances that circumvent official channels for communication across the strait, while Beijing will further limit Taiwan’s space on the international stage. For this, I-Chung has some ideas of how countries, including the UK, can help.

More than thirty years since independence, we look at how the nations of Central Asia are navigating shifting regional power dynamics and an evolving international security environment. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the nations of Central Asia - Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan – quickly transformed into authoritarian orders, while external investment in natural resources became the basis for the post-Soviet economies. Today, the region faces significant security challenges – the war in Ukraine has weakened Russia’s regional position, while the influence of China is palpable. Join us as host Neil Melvin sits down with Professor David Lewis of the University of Exeter to discuss how Central Asia is evolving and adapting, and what the real prospects are for political and economic reform.

We discuss the future trajectory of the region in the context of the war in Ukraine, the coronavirus pandemic, and new leadership across the continent. The global geopolitical architecture is shifting rapidly in the face of major events such as the war in Ukraine and the coronavirus pandemic. Latin America is having to contend with these changes, as well as regional challenges of transnational organised crime, cybersecurity and public health threats. As the region welcomes several new leaders and the political landscape morphs, host Neil Melvin sits down with RUSI Senior Research Fellow for Latin America Carlos Solar to discuss how all these factors are transforming the role of the region on the world stage. What are the most tangible effects of the war in Ukraine on Latin America? What are the effects of Putin’s influence in the region? Can the US and UK strengthen their military and diplomatic alliances in the region in the face of political realignments, or is it too late?

Originally published 28 September 2022.  As strategic and economic interest in the region grows, how can states around the Indian Ocean and their partners mitigate the risk of conflict? Jeffrey Payne of the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies in Washington joins Veerle and Aaditya to discuss growing competition in the Indian Ocean region. Why has interest in the region among nuclear maritime states – including India, China and the US – grown steadily over recent years? They consider the strategic risks to the region as a nuclear flashpoint and what steps could be taken to stabilise it.

Originally published 23 September 2022. What lessons can be learned from the war in Ukraine when tackling the cross-strait crisis? In this special episode of Bridging the Oceans, Veerle speaks with Yuichi Hosoya of Keio University, Tokyo about the parallels between the war in Ukraine and the current standoff over Taiwan, and the extent to which these comparisons are valid. They examine escalation scenarios across the Taiwan Strait, in light of Russia’s pattern of behaviour before invading Ukraine. And they discuss what role Japan could play in the maintenance of peace and stability in the region, as well as which key networks and strategic alliances Japan will be relying on.

Japan is looking to play a larger role in global security as the country faces new external threats. It is increasing commitments to national defence and seeking to move beyond key political and constitutional constraints placed on the country’s security policies after the Second World War. Philip Shetler-Jones, a James Cook Associate Fellow in Indo-Pacific Geopolitics at the Council on Geostrategy, is our guest for this episode. He discusses with Dr Neil Melvin, Director, International Security Studies at RUSI, how Japan is responding to the growing military confrontation in the Indo-Pacific region. Increased defence spending, new roles for the Japanese military, and a revised foreign and security policy that includes remaking Japan’s defence alliances are all considered.

Originally published 14 September 2022. Will UK foreign policy under Liz Truss be business as usual or a radical departure? While the UK’s relations with China have been strained in recent years, Raffaello Pantucci, Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI, explains how current policy towards China may experience a radical shift and, should that happen, what the repercussions would be. Similarly, the Hon. Alexander Downer, the former Australian foreign minister, joins Veerle in exploring Liz Truss’ views on the Indo-Pacific, how she may need to balance realities in both the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions, and whether a values-driven foreign policy will resonate with Indo-Pacific partners.