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Moody's Talks - Emerging Markets Decoded

Latest episodes

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Jul 20, 2022 • 15min

Mexico and Pemex downgraded on lower economic growth prospects and increasing fiscal rigidities

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Renzo Merino of the Sovereign team and Nymia Almeida of the Corporates team join host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the recent rating downgrades of the Mexican sovereign and state-owned oil company. 
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Jul 6, 2022 • 18min

China’s zero-covid policy and property sector challenges weigh on growth, with global spillovers

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Martin Petch of the Sovereign team and Franco Leung of the Corporates team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss the implications of China’s property sector stress and economic slowdown for global growth.
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Jun 15, 2022 • 17min

Policy shifts loom as Colombia’s presidential election heads to a run-off

Analysts Renzo Merino and Nymia Almeida join host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the policy proposals of the candidates vying to be Colombia’s next president and how rising social risks may lead to policy changes with important credit implications.Related content on Moodys.com  (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1328181https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1324262https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1320228
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Jun 1, 2022 • 20min

Gloomy outlook for emerging market credit conditions, with some bright spots

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Ariane Ortiz-Bollin of the Global Emerging Markets team joins host Thaddeus Best to discuss key takeaways from Moody’s recent Global Emerging Markets Summit. Plus, Rachel Chua of the Corporates team reveals which emerging market companies are most exposed to spillovers from the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, and which stand to benefit.Related content on Moodys.com  (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1330110https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1326788https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1327363https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1323369https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1323216https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1327228
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May 12, 2022 • 18min

Africa, Middle East at heightened risk of social unrest; Turkey’s inflation soars

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Aurelien Mali and Kathrin Muehlbronner of the Sovereign team join host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the sociopolitical ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine crisis for the Middle East and Africa by drawing lessons from a similar global food and energy price shock in 2008. Plus, they discuss how the conflict is exacerbating an already precarious situation in Turkey.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Sovereigns – Middle East & Africa: Global food and energy price shock raises risk of political and social unrest fueled by rising inflationGovernment of Turkey: FAQ on Turkey's vulnerability to Russia-Ukraine conflictBanks, securities firms, finance companies – Global: Ripple effects from Ukraine crisis are creating harsher business conditions 
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Apr 27, 2022 • 14min

Frontier markets most exposed to heightened risk aversion; CIS credit quality at risk

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Christian de Guzman and Elisa Parisi-Capone from the Sovereign team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss how Russia’s military conflict with Ukraine is affecting Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) sovereigns, as well as what stress tests on borrowing costs, exchange rates and capital flows tell us about the sovereigns most exposed to heightened risk aversion.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Sovereigns – Commonwealth of Independent States: Sharp recession in Russia poses immediate sustained risks to CIS credit qualitySovereigns – Global: Frontier, oil-importing MENA sovereigns are most exposed to an extended funding shockEmerging Markets – Global Russia-Ukraine shock amplifies pandemic-led credit deterioration for many sovereigns
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Apr 13, 2022 • 20min

Higher energy prices will delay carbon transition; Mexico’s energy policy will raise costs

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Steve Wood from the Corporates team joins host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss how the Russia-Ukraine conflict is affecting the global oil and gas sector, and what this means for carbon transition. Plus, Adrian Garza from the Project and Infrastructure Finance team discusses how a major policy shift in Mexico’s energy sector will delay the move to cleaner energy, weighing on the sovereign, companies and banks.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Oil & Gas – Global: FAQ on how ESG considerations affect energy sector credit quality Carbon Transition – Mexico: Policy shift will dampen private investment, delaying country’s path to cleaner energy
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Mar 30, 2022 • 17min

Russia-Ukraine crisis exacerbates food price inflation; financial conditions tighten for emerging markets

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Mickael Gondrand of the Sovereign team joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the credit implications of rising food prices for emerging and frontier markets. Plus, Thaddeus Best of the Global Emerging Markets team discusses the reasons why emerging markets are more likely to be able to withstand tightening global financial conditions than in the past.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Sovereigns – Emerging & Frontier Markets: High food prices will exacerbate macroeconomic challenges, raise social risks; Middle East & Africa most exposedEmerging Markets - Global: Financial Conditions Monitor: March 2022 Credit Conditions – Global Five areas to watch as the US Federal Reserve embarks on a rate-hike cycle
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Mar 16, 2022 • 16min

CBDCs could foster financial inclusion, growth; El Salvador Bitcoin bond entails high risks

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Olivier Chemla of the Sovereign team joins host Thaddeus Best to discuss the potential credit implications of central bank digital currencies. Plus, Jaime Reusche of the Sovereign team discusses the risks associated with El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender, and its upcoming Bitcoin bond issuance.Related ReportsGovernment of El Salvador: Bitcoin bond issuance carries significant risks for potential investors and conventional bondholdersCentral bank digital currencies offer sovereigns opportunity to improve policy effectiveness and economic performance
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Mar 3, 2022 • 17min

Russia-Ukraine crisis increases global macroeconomic risks; most economies sustain less pandemic scarring

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Madhavi Bokil of the Credit Strategy team joins host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss new risks to the global macroeconomic outlook from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Plus, David Rogovic of the Sovereign team discusses the credit implications of less economic scarring from the pandemic.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Russia-Ukraine crisis injects new risks into global economic outlookAs COVID crisis recedes, global economy downshifts toward trend growthEnergy ties raise risks, but credit impact from limited Russia-Ukraine conflict is lowStronger economic recovery will reduce but not eliminate scarring for most sovereigns

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