The Tech Strategy Podcast

This week’s podcast is about assessing specialty ecommerce companies (i.e,. the anteaters) vs. the ecommerce giants (i.e,. the lions). Which will survive? Which will thrive?You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes and Google Podcasts.Here are my 5 questions (thus far) for assessing the viability of a specialty ecommerce company.Is the company sufficiently differentiated in the user experience?Can the company compete and/or differentiate in logistics or infrastructure without ongoing spending?Does the company have a strong competitive advantage in a circumscribed market?Is there a clear path to significant operational cash flow?Has the company avoided markets and situations that are attractive or strategic for the major ecommerce companies?Addendum: Don’t overestimate first mover, virality or growth hacks.Here's my assessment of various specialty ecommerce companies:Thriving:Etsy – huge suite of unique products for mass market by capturing unique merchants.Oriental Trading Company – unique product for niche market by unique logistics.Pinduoduo - engagement driven ecommerce.Survive, but questionable:Global-e – cross border logisticsI'm not optimistic:DingdongFarfetchSituations that may be overestimating first mover, virality or growth hacks.Delivery Hero:Shein——--Related articles:Can Foodpanda / Delivery Hero Get to Profitable Scale in On-Demand Food? (Asia Tech Strategy – Daily Lesson / Update)Meituan vs. Ctrip vs. Alibaba: Who Will Win in China Services? (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 22)From the Concept Library, concepts for this article are:Specialty EcommerceInteractive and Engagement-Focused EcommerceFrom the Company Library, companies for this article are:EtsyOriental Trading CompanyPinduoduo---------I write and speak about digital China and Asia’s latest tech trends.I also run Asia Tech Strategy, a podcast and subscription newsletter on the strategies of China / Asia tech companies.This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. Investing is risky. Do your own research.Support the show

This week’s podcast is about the recent political issues around China tech and Alibaba in particular.You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes and Google Podcasts.——Related articles:Can Foodpanda / Delivery Hero Get to Profitable Scale in On-Demand Food? (Asia Tech Strategy – Daily Lesson / Update)Meituan vs. Ctrip vs. Alibaba: Who Will Win in China Services? (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 22)From the Concept Library, concepts for this article are:Role of the StateUncertainty Investing ApproachesFrom the Company Library, companies for this article are:Alibaba———I write and speak about digital China and Asia’s latest tech trends.I also run Asia Tech Strategy, a podcast and subscription newsletter on the strategies of China / Asia tech companies.This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. Investing is risky. Do your own research.Support the show

This week’s podcast is about Ctrip, Didi and their current situation as subscale services marketplaces in China.You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes and Google Podcasts.4 Reasons Didi and Ctrip should merge:They are both subscale in B2C digital ChinaBoth are exposed. And industry barriers in services are shifting and falling.They are complementary in terms of users, usage, data and cash flow.Meituan is coming. It is likely it will enter ride-sharing, just like it did in accommodations.—---Related articles:Can Foodpanda / Delivery Hero Get to Profitable Scale in On-Demand Food? (Asia Tech Strategy – Daily Lesson / Update)Meituan vs. Ctrip vs. Alibaba: Who Will Win in China Services? (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 22)From the Concept Library, concepts for this article are:Indirect Network EffectsMarketplace Platform for ServicesFrom the Company Library, companies for this article are:CtripDidi------I write and speak about digital China and Asia’s latest tech trends.I also run Tech Strategy, a podcast and subscription newsletter on the strategies of China / Asia tech companies.This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. Investing is risky. Do your own research.Support the show

This week’s podcast is about how to profit from political involvement in China tech. But really it is about how to think systematically about the role of the State. And about how to benefit from the State as the mother-of-all catalysts.You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes, Google Podcasts and Himalaya.Here is the marketing material for OShares OGIGX.OGIGX Index Presentation 2021Q2- June 2021 endHere is the Standard Digital Playbook:Target a 10x or 100x market opportunity.Grow users and revenue.Capture and grow cash gross margin. Not the %. The cash.Flood cash into new revenue streams and innovation to improve the user experience.That playbook is all about building a digital business on the demand side. It is about identifying a big opportunity and then systematically improving the consumer experience and going after related consumer problems.However, this also usually results in negative operating profits until sufficient scale is reached. The gross profits are positive but the operating profits are negative. Often for a long time. However, with increasing scale the operating leverage eventually kicks in and the big profits are revealed.Here is a list for the Digital Basics:Growth and ScaleDigital CoreEcosystem, Connectedness and Coordination-Based Business ModelsLeadership and ManagementPeople, Culture and TalentOperating Cash Flow. The Cash Engine.——-Related articles:Lessons from Cheah Cheng Hye on China Stocks and Uncertain Terrains (Asia Tech Strategy – Daily Lesson / Update)Can Foodpanda / Delivery Hero Get to Profitable Scale in On-Demand Food? (Asia Tech Strategy – Daily Lesson / Update)From the Concept Library, concepts for this article are:Digital BasicsDigital Playbook (Standard)From the Company Library, companies for this article are:Delivery Hero / Foodpanda——–I write and speak about digital China and Asia’s latest tech trends.I also run Tech Strategy, a podcast and subscription newsletter on the strategies of China / Asia tech companies.This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. Investing is risky. Support the show

This week’s podcast is about how to profit from political involvement in China tech. But really it is about how to think systematically about the role of the State. And about how to benefit from the State as the mother-of-all catalysts.You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes, Google Podcasts and Himalaya.Ways to profit from State involvement:Ride the big waves from top-down initiativesCopy Cheah Chang Hye (Value Partners). Buy and sell unfollowed and obscure China bargains.Demand a bigger margin of safetyBuy and sell fast (Ben Graham).Buy quantitative certainties (Ben Graham).Buy great companies and hold long-term (Philip Fisher).—----Related articles:How to Assess Political Risk in China Tech (Asia Tech Strategy – Podcast 92)Lessons from Cheah Cheng Hye on China Stocks and Uncertain Terrains (Asia Tech Strategy – Daily Lesson / Update)How to Profit from China Politics: Suntech and State Catalysts. (Asia Tech Strategy – Daily Lesson / Update)From the Concept Library, concepts for this article are:Role of the StateGiants, Dwarves and the StateCatalystsFrom the Company Library, companies for this article are:SuntechCheah Cheng Hye / Value Partners--------I write and speak about digital China and Asia’s latest tech trends.I also run Asia Tech Strategy, a podcast and subscription newsletter on the strategies of China / Asia tech companies.This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. Investing is risky. Do your own research.Support the show

This week’s podcast is about political risk in China tech, but really it is about how to think systematically about the role of the State. And about making investment decisions on uncertain terrains.You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes, Google Podcasts and Himalaya.Here are five investment approaches to uncertain environments.Stay out.Buy and sell fast.Focus on quantitative certainties. Tangible assets.Focus on really great businesses. And qualitative factors. Buy and hold through tough times.Demand a bigger margin of safety.How to assess the role of the State and political risk:Question 1: Does the State have an active role in this sector? If so, don’t go forward until you can understand it. It is one of three key forces.If no role, then you can view this with a typical industry approach.Question 2: If there is an active role, what are the State’s interests? What is the evidence for this? Is it actively supporting? Is it against against rapid or significant development? Is it just muddy and mixed?Ques 3: If it is actively supporting, then ask how this firm is advancing the State’s interests? How is it working with govt? That is the main thing that matters.About Giants, Dwarves and the State. See my webpage link.----Related articles:What TikTok Can Learn From Huawei About the Role of the State (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 39)How Tsingtao, CR Snow and the Other Beer SOEs Won Big in China (Pt 2 of 2)From the Concept Library, concepts for this article are:Role of the StateGiants, Dwarves and the StateFrom the Company Library, companies for this article are:Philip FisherBen Graham--------I write and speak about digital China and Asia’s latest tech trends.I also run Tech Strategy, a podcast and subscription newsletter on the strategies of China / Asia tech companies.This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. Investing is risky. Do your own research.Support the show

This week’s podcast is about Warren Buffett and combining competitive advantage with compounding.You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes, Google Podcasts and Himalaya. Slides are on my webpage.—–—Related articles:I Took 20 Peking University Students to Lunch with Warren Buffett (Again). Here’s What Happened. (Pt 1 of 4)3 Life Lessons from Lunch with Warren BuffettFrom the Concept Library, concepts for this article are:CompoundingCompetitive AdvantageFrom the Company Library, companies for this article are:Warren Buffett / Berkshire Hathaway-------I write and speak about digital China and Asia’s latest tech trends.I also run Tech Strategy, a podcast and subscription newsletter on the strategies of China / Asia tech companies.This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. Investing is risky. Do your own research.Support the show

This week’s podcast is about Dingdong, a specialty ecommerce player in China focused on fresh groceries. It has gone public while still operating profit negative - but brings to mind a similar situation with Meituan at IPO.You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes, Google Podcasts and Himalaya.—–---Related articles:Should Vipshop Build a Logistics Network Like JD? (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 7)The Pros and Cons of Farfetch’s Global Luxury Marketplace (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Daily Update)From the Concept Library, concepts for this article are:Purchasing EconomiesEconomies of Scale - Geographic DensityExplore and ExploitFrom the Company Library, companies for this article are:Dingdong———I write and speak about digital China and Asia’s latest tech trends.I also run Tech Strategy, a podcast and subscription newsletter on the strategies of China / Asia tech companies.This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. Investing is risky. Do your own research.Support the show

Explore the intricate world of logistics with insights into the Full Truck Alliance, where complex network effects shape the freight marketplace. Discover the challenges of matching supply and demand in less-than-full truckload shipping, driven by booming e-commerce. Delve into how digital solutions revolutionize the industry, enhancing connections between shippers and truckers. Learn about technological innovations that are streamlining long-haul operations, and the implications of IPOs in this rapidly evolving tech landscape.

This week’s podcast is about Skillz and Electronic Arts. There are some interesting and evolving strategy aspects to gaming - especially as it goes to multiplayer and tournaments. And as Skillz opens up tournament gaming based on cash rewards, the question is how far into gambling is this going to go?You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes, Google Podcasts and Himalaya.Addiction by Design: Machine Gambling in Las Vegas—–—Related articles:Ant Financial and the 3 Types of Network Effects (Asia Tech Strategy – Podcast 86)A Day in the Life of a Didi Chuxing Driver (Pt 1 of 3)From the Concept Library, concepts for this article are:Network EffectsShare of the Consumer MindFrom the Company Library, companies for this article are:SkillzElectronic Arts———I write and speak about digital China and Asia’s latest tech trends.I also run Tech Strategy, a podcast and subscription newsletter on the strategies of China / Asia tech companies.This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. Investing is risky. Do your own research.Support the show