RJ Bell's Dream Preview

Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner talk MLB betting for Tuesday. The guys also give out best bets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Former MLB Pitcher Josh Towers and Scott Seidenberg go over the top stories in baseball with betting leans for the week. 🔑 Key Points🎯 Max Fried’s No-Hitter Controversy: Scorekeeper reclassified an error as a single mid-game, disrupting Fried's no-hit bid (7.2 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 2 K, 102 pitches)​.🧠 Pitch Efficiency Benchmarks: Ideal pitch count is 13 per inning; staying under this keeps a pitcher in control with minimal stress​.🏆 Veteran Handling & Stress: Josh argues that veterans like Fried know their bodies, and "stressful" innings—not pitch counts alone—should dictate decisions​.💥 Kelenic vs. Acuña Jr. Discipline: Kelenic's premature home-run trot caused an out; Acuña's tweet referenced past double standards—sparking internal Braves friction​.📉 Orioles’ Pitching Collapse: Orioles gave up 24 runs in one game; poor starters (Sugano, Morton, Kramer, Povich, Eflin) exposed the team's fragility​.📊 Power Rankings (Top 5): Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets, Rangers; ranked based on pitching, consistency, bullpen reliability, and current form​.📈 Day Game Betting Edge: Home teams dominate early day games (e.g., before 2:30 PM ET) at 60%+ win rate; Cardinals are 5-1 in this slot​.🧮 Orioles First Five Over Trend: Hottest bet in baseball—16-4-1 to the over in the first five innings​.🧠 Mets vs Phillies Series Betting Tip: Strong lean toward first five unders based on matchups and bullpen data (Mets: 17-5 under, Phillies: 8-1 road under)​.💸 Home Favorites Profitability: Betting all home favorites this season would yield $4,226 profit ($100 bets), with Padres (10-0) and Rangers (8-0) leading​.📚 Summary by SectionMax Fried’s Yanked No-Hitter (0:02–6:54)Scott and Josh dissect Fried’s near-no hitter against the Rays. Fried was in command, but a delayed official scoring decision transformed an error into a hit—nullifying his bid. Towers criticizes both the inconsistency and its timing, explaining how it likely rattled Fried's rhythm.Pitch Count & Stress Analysis (2:13–5:45)Towers distinguishes between “cruising” and “stressful” innings. Stressful innings (e.g., 35-pitch opening frames) wear pitchers down. He emphasizes that a no-hitter with low pitch count should not automatically trigger removal.Scorekeeping Controversy Fallout (6:55–15:21)Both hosts vent about the poor standards of MLB scorekeeping. Home team bias, inconsistency, and lack of universal scoring logic lead to absurd rulings. They argue it has real psychological impact on pitchers.Kelenic vs Acuña Jr. Incident (21:19–32:24)A viral tweet from Acuña exposed perceived double standards after Kelenic was not disciplined for lack of hustle. Towers criticizes Braves management for inconsistency and blames Kelenic's ego and history for the incident.Philly vs Mets Series Preview (33:15–38:36)The duo previews the upcoming Phillies-Mets series. Towers supports first-five unders due to strong starting pitchers (Sanchez, Wheeler, Peterson) and notes that bullpen form heavily affects series bets.Trends, Betting Systems, and Profitability (38:36–54:51)Scott shares deep betting data:Orioles: 16-4-1 to first-five oversMets: 17-5 to first-five undersRangers: 12-1 to full-game unders at homeHome teams: 60.6% win rate in all gamesHome favorites: 155-76, +$4,226 ROIPower Rankings (54:51–1:05:58)Towers ranks top teams based on full scope—not just standings. Dodgers top due to consistency, Padres and Phillies close behind. Rangers enter top five due to rising pitching form and learning to win close games. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On the April 18, 2025 episode of RJ Bell’s Dream Preview MLB podcast, Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner provided in-depth analysis of the Friday baseball slate with betting insights. Munaf opened by highlighting his 5-1 betting record and credited their collaborative discussions for the success. The first matchup covered was Diamondbacks vs. Cubs (0:10–7:40). Corbin Burnes has struggled early, while Cubs starter Colin Rea provides potential value. Chicago leads MLB in runners in scoring position appearances and has scored 124 runs to Arizona’s 104. The Cubs as home underdogs and a lean to the over were discussed, depending on Wrigley Field wind.In Royals vs. Tigers (7:41–11:34), Cole Ragans faces top prospect Jackson Jobe. Kansas City’s offense has produced just 19 runs over its last 10 games and is 2-8 on the road. The Tigers’ bullpen is strong, and both hosts leaned toward Detroit plus money and under 7.5.Guardians vs. Pirates (11:35–15:11) features Luis Ortiz against Carmen Mlodzinski. Mlodzinski has a 1.77 WHIP with command issues. The Guardians were favored due to bullpen depth. Pittsburgh is 6-4 at home and to the over. There was a slight lean to Cleveland and possibly over 8.5.In Marlins vs. Phillies (15:12–19:08), Sandy Alcantara is no longer dominant, while Zack Wheeler boasts an 11-4 record and 2.73 ERA against Miami. Philadelphia is 24-11 in Wheeler’s home starts since 2023. The Phillies were a strong lean, especially on the run line.Yankees vs. Rays (19:49–25:11) featured Carlos Rodón, who has allowed 4+ earned runs and 3+ walks in three straight starts. Drew Rasmussen has not allowed a run in 21 career innings vs. the Yankees. Munaf’s best bet was Rays first five innings at -110.In Reds vs. Orioles (25:12–28:31), Andrew Abbott faces Cade Povich. While Abbott had a solid outing against Pittsburgh, Baltimore’s offense poses more danger. The Orioles were favored and offensive production expected.Mariners vs. Blue Jays (28:31–31:40) has Bryan Woo, who has struggled away from home, against Bowden Francis. Toronto is 7-3 at home and the over 7.5 was considered.Cardinals vs. Mets (31:42–35:05) pits Miles Mikolas against David Peterson. St. Louis is 1-6 on the road and lacks comeback potential. The Mets were the lean, especially on the run line.Griffin’s best bet was Braves -130 vs. Twins (35:06–38:12). Chris Paddack has lost all three starts by 2+ runs and Bryce Elder is trying to earn a rotation spot.In Red Sox vs. White Sox (38:13–41:46), Martín Pérez is a steady innings-eater. Boston has a negative run differential and both hosts were reluctant to back them as heavy favorites.Dodgers vs. Rangers (41:46–45:55) features Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has a 0.91 WHIP and 28 strikeouts in 22 innings, against Jacob deGrom, who’s allowed multiple home runs in consecutive starts. The Dodgers were favored early.In Astros vs. Padres (52:32–56:54), Kyle Hart rebounded after a poor debut, while Houston’s Ryan Gusto is unproven. The Padres are 15-4, and with Houston’s bullpen issues, San Diego at +123 was the consensus lean.Brewers vs. A’s (56:55–1:01:02) has Freddy Peralta allowing six earned runs over 23.1 innings. Milwaukee is 43-27 at home in his starts since 2018.Nationals vs. Rockies (1:01:11–1:04:14) features cold Denver weather and a low total of nine. MacKenzie Gore’s road struggles were noted, but Washington was the slight lean.Giants vs. Angels (1:04:14–1:07:43) featured Logan Webb’s consistency against Tyler Anderson. San Francisco is 9-4 on the road with eight wins by 2+ runs. Munaf leaned Giants run line.The episode ended with a promo for Pregame’s $1,000 MLB contest and 20 percent discount code HOMERUN20. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Munaf Manji and Mackenzie Rivers talk NBA playoff betting for the firs round. The guys break down each series and give out predictions and best bets. In the “NBA Playoffs 1st Round Preview + Best Bets” podcast, Munaf Manji and Mackenzie Rivers deliver a detailed analysis of six confirmed playoff matchups. Starting with Bucks vs. Pacers, they highlight Damian Lillard’s Game 1 absence and potential Game 3 return. Despite Indiana's strong finish and better trendline, both lean Milwaukee in six games, citing Giannis’ dominance, Halliburton’s road struggles, and playoff pedigree. Munaf mentions Doc Rivers’ questionable playoff history and the Bucks’ edge in rebounding and roster depth. Next, Knicks vs. Pistons shows New York as a clear -400 favorite. Mackenzie highlights Detroit’s weak half-court offense and inexperience. They agree Jalen Brunson is the best player in the series and pick Knicks in five, suggesting -2.5 games as a value bet. For Celtics vs. Magic, Boston is a -5000 favorite. Mackenzie acknowledges Orlando’s improvement to 17th in offense post-All-Star despite losing Jalen Suggs but criticizes their three-point shooting and sees Game 1 as a blowout. Munaf agrees, pointing to Boston’s depth and perimeter strength. They recommend a Magic team total under and predict a sweep or five-game series. Clippers vs. Nuggets is the tightest series, priced at -110 each. Mackenzie is hesitant to trust Kawhi Leonard’s health but notes the Clippers were strong late season. He values Denver’s playoff-tested core of Jokic, Murray, and Porter Jr., even with coaching changes. Munaf favors the Clippers in seven games, citing Ty Lue’s ability to adjust and Harden’s solid season. Both suggest betting the series after Game 1, with Denver favored by 2.5. In Lakers vs. Timberwolves, Munaf backs the Lakers based on star power and playoff history. Mackenzie points out their mediocre net rating and questions public overconfidence. He critiques Julius Randle’s poor playoff stats and remains skeptical of Minnesota’s secondary scoring. While Mackenzie sees potential in the Timberwolves, he passes on betting them now. Munaf lays the four points with the Lakers, expecting a statement in Game 1. In Rockets vs. Warriors, the hosts praise Houston’s growth but highlight their lack of playoff experience. Mackenzie notes Golden State’s poor half-court offense but trusts Curry and Green’s pedigree. Munaf calls it a development year for Houston and picks Warriors in six. They mention the low total for Game 1 and expect another under, given both teams’ tendencies. Mackenzie’s best bets are Knicks -7 and Trae Young under 26.5 points vs. Miami, based on historical defensive matchups. Munaf echoes the Knicks pick and supports Lakers -4, banking on home energy and playoff urgency. For Heat vs. Hawks, Munaf leans over on Miami’s team total, while Mackenzie prefers fading Trae Young. They note past eighth-seed play-in games are 6-1 to the under. For Mavericks vs. Grizzlies, Munaf leans under and highlights Dallas’ defense, while Mackenzie passes on a side but acknowledges Memphis’ volatility. Both hosts ground their takes in net rating, recent trends, EPM data, and postseason form. They avoid hyperbole, focusing on betting value, historical angles, and matchup dynamics, giving listeners a sharp and disciplined first-round betting guide. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers talk NBA betting. The wiseguy round table does the annual Vegas wiseguy NBA Playoff draft !! conduct a unique NBA Playoffs team draft, each receiving $250 to bid on teams, with scoring based on playoff progression: 1 point for the first round, 2 for the second, 4 for reaching the Finals, and 8 for winning the title. Boston and Oklahoma City (OKC) are split into halves due to their odds outweighing the individual cap. Mackenzie wins half of Boston for $131, arguing their elite two-way metrics and experience justify the price. He notes Boston’s 16–2 playoff run last year, strong net rating, and top-tier half-court efficiency. RJ and Fezzik counter with Cleveland’s comparable point differential and challenge the strength of Boston’s schedule in the East.Cleveland's hot shooting is scrutinized. Mackenzie explains their +18 clutch rating is extreme compared to the +4.5 average among playoff teams and unsustainable over time. Scott notes they played 38 clutch games, about average, while OKC’s low number of clutch situations (24) reflects dominance. OKC’s +12.6 point differential is the best in NBA history. They also had 38 wins by 15+ points and only 2 such losses. RJ emphasizes their resilience with an 18–10 record when trailing by double digits, far superior to the second-best 13–14 mark.Lower-tier play-in teams draw minimal bids. Miami goes to RJ for $3. Mackenzie critiques their 10-game losing streak post-Butler trade, Bam’s decline, and poor offensive efficiency, though Spolstra and slow pace offer playoff upside. Chicago is seen as improved since trading Zach LaVine, becoming a top-10 team post-All-Star break. Bulls are split among three drafters for $1 each. RJ also picks up Orlando, who are 1600-1 to beat Boston, and praised for grit but dismissed due to weak three-point shooting. Boston led the league with 53.6% of their shots from three, the highest rate in NBA history.RJ gets Detroit for $3. Mackenzie notes they’ve been the most upgraded team in his power rankings and highlights Cade Cunningham’s All-NBA case, but says they lack playoff-caliber depth. RJ grabs Milwaukee for $8, believing Giannis can carry them. The panel debates Lillard’s availability; Mackenzie is skeptical, estimating the line implies only a 25% chance he plays. Indiana, led by Tyrese Haliburton, is drafted by Fezzik for $15 due to their strong seeding and Milwaukee matchup.RJ then wins Cleveland for $111, citing their historic shooting profile. They’re the only team top five in both three-point rate and percentage. Mackenzie remains skeptical of their overall ceiling. Fezzik outbids the panel at $34 for the Knicks, but Scott highlights their 0-4 record against elite teams and suggests they’ve struggled against contenders.In the West, Scott makes a calculated move and takes half of OKC for $123. Mackenzie praises their evolution and improved playoff readiness. RJ wins the Clippers for $41, citing Kawhi’s elite playoff form when healthy. Fezzik takes Denver for $63, stating he preferred the Clippers but couldn’t risk being shut out. Scott grabs Golden State for $45 and the Lakers for $38, expecting both to have favorable paths if they advance. Mackenzie questions the Lakers’ hype, citing shallow margins and overperformance against weak opponents. RJ wins the other half of OKC unopposed.The show closes with MVP debates. Jokic’s season (52.5 combined PTS+REB+AST) surpasses all prior years, and media sentiment may swing votes his way. OKC's dominance and individual achievements are noted, but voter narratives and recent performances could shift ballots. RJ, Mackenzie, and Fezzik assess title probabilities and wrap with final rosters, confirming RJ and Mackenzie as high spenders and Scott’s OKC acquisition as the savviest draft moment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Will Doctor gives you the sharpest card for week 16 at the RBC Heritage &Corales Puntacana Championship! -Reviewing Rory completing the grand slam at the 89th Masters -Discussing top 8 at Heritage -1 matchup -2 t10's -3 outrights (+475, 50/1, 90/1) -Sleeper, 2 lineups, scoring, best bet -2 FRL for Corales -2 outrights for Corales -1 t10 for Corales The transcript begins with host Will Docter reacting to Rory McIlroy’s landmark Masters victory, completing the career Grand Slam and joining an elite group of six. Mike Tirico's emotional broadcast is cited, capturing McIlroy’s on-course collapse in tears. Rory's press conference reflects on inspiration from Tiger Woods, struggles throughout the day, and mental strength, particularly after early double bogeys. A note from Ángel Cabrera added a sentimental touch. Rory’s rounds of 72, 66, 66, and 73 included four double bogeys—no past Masters winner had ever overcome as many. Docter notes Rory’s final round featured both mistakes and immediate recoveries, such as birdies following doubles and clutch iron shots, particularly a hook 7-iron on the 15th hole. Despite sloppy play off the tee and below-average putting, his elite approach and short game, backed by years of mental training, led him to victory over contenders like Justin Rose, who shot a 66 on Sunday to force a playoff but fell short. The loss marked Rose’s second defeat in a Masters playoff.Docter transitions to a betting review, citing a 12.6-unit loss on the Masters, part of a 74.6-unit deficit on the season. Key misfires included failed bets on Sepp Straka and Tom Hoge, both below-average chippers—highlighting a key error in strategy at Augusta. Ludwig Åberg nearly contended until a late collapse; Collin Morikawa’s first-round falter also ruined early bets. Sungjae Im was a bright spot with a fifth-place finish. Doctor criticizes his overreliance on players with poor short games and reviews each ticket, including failed first-round bets and frustrating near misses like Shane Lowry, who imploded with an 81 on Sunday.Shifting to the RBC Heritage at Harbor Town, Docter details the course as favoring accurate drivers, sharp approach play from 150–175 yards, and strong Bermuda putting. He reviews top favorites. Scheffler (+425) is a strong pick, showing consistent elite form and success at Harbor Town last year. Morikawa, Henley, and Fleetwood are dismissed due to poor putting. Corey Conners and Åberg are borderline due to form and past finishes. Schauffele is in good form but not elite in the critical approach range. Cantlay and Fleetwood are passed due to inconsistent recent play. A key matchup pick is Ryan Gerard over Adam Scott, citing Scott’s issues with driving and putting. Gerard is also the sleeper pick to top 20.Two “picks to place” include Schauffele top 10 (+120), based on elite approach numbers and improving putting, and JT Poston top 10 (+375), with recent putting resurgence and three top-10s at Harbor Town. Outright picks include Scheffler, Berger (50:1), praised for driving accuracy and course history, and Bud Cauley (90:1), with recent top-5 finishes and elite stats in the target range.Fantasy lineups are provided for DraftKings and PGA.com platforms, with lineups built around Scheffler, Schauffele, Im, Berger, Poston, and Cauley. The predicted winning score is 19-under. The best bet is Sungjae Im as top Asian (+160), citing strong course history and lack of serious competition beyond Ryo Hisatsune.For Corrales, Mitchell (28:1) and Hall (33:1) are first-round leader picks based on scoring averages. Outright bets are Packieter and Cootie at 45:1, while Alejandro Tosti is selected to top 10 at +333 based on form despite putting concerns. The podcast wraps with reminders of betting value and expectations heading into the next week. Predicted winning score: 19-under-par at RBC Heritage. For the latest as far as the world of golf, follow Doc on X @ drmedia59 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner talk MLB betting for Tuesday. MLB is in full swing and the guys are off to a hot start on the bases. Best bets as always. 📚 Summary(0:02 - 2:06) Pod Opening & Records: Munaf opens the pod, welcomes Griffin, and recaps their season records: Munaf 4-1, Griffin 2-0. Griffin jokes about golf playoffs vs. extra innings.(2:06 - 3:43) Season Outlook: Discussion on maintaining strong early-season handicapping, approaching the six-month grind efficiently.(3:43 - 5:58) Diamondbacks vs Marlins: Merrill Kelly is discussed as a pitcher with shaky control but upside. Arizona's defensive issues and Miami’s lack of offensive intent are mentioned. Griffin leans under 8.5.(5:59 - 8:15) Merrill Kelly Stats: Munaf details Kelly’s 3-game performance and compares offenses in NL West. Gillespie’s effectiveness also gets brief praise.(8:15 - 10:10) Mariners vs Reds: Griffin and Munaf both back the under, citing weather (53°F) and two quality starters – Castillo and Lodolo.(10:11 - 12:02) Reds Pitching Praise: Munaf highlights Lodolo’s elite early numbers (0.96 ERA, 0.70 WHIP) vs Castillo’s 2.12 ERA.(12:03 - 13:41) Nationals vs Pirates: Keller is seen as erratic but has upside. Irvin's poor 2023 finish noted. Cold Pittsburgh weather might keep scoring down.(13:42 - 15:43) Irvin Historical Stats: Munaf notes Irvin’s 6 ER game last year vs. Pirates; Pirates’ offensive inconsistency keeps bet lean unclear.(15:45 - 17:10) Giants vs Phillies: Verlander is criticized for showing his age. Griffin praises Phillies’ opportunity to bounce back at home.(17:11 - 19:05) Verlander Decline: Munaf notes his high ER and fading stamina. Lizardo praised: 1.50 ERA, solid vs Braves.(19:05 - 20:46) Guardians vs Orioles: Charlie Morton is fading; Griffin prefers the Guardians for their contact hitting and consistent fundamentals.(20:47 - 22:25) Guardians Potential: Munaf questions if they can exploit Morton’s decline. Griffin says yes – Morton shouldn’t be in rotation.(22:26 - 25:51) Red Sox vs Rays: Pepiot backed against the volatile Red Sox. Munaf leans over 8.5 due to both pitchers’ walk rates.(25:51 - 28:51) Royals vs Yankees: Munaf supports Yankees run line. Griffin notes Royals offensive ineptitude and concerns about bullpen usage.(28:53 - 30:35) Braves vs Blue Jays: Praise for Schwellenbach’s incredible start. Caution over Gausman’s declining stuff. Lean to Braves.(30:35 - 32:20) Braves Pitching Dominance: Schwellenbach: 20 IP, 1 ER, 0.65 WHIP. First-five betting angle highlighted.(32:20 - 34:27) A’s vs White Sox: White Sox heavily faded; Jeffrey Springs praised. Munaf leans A’s team total due to Sean Burke’s poor outings.(34:28 - 37:12) Tigers vs Brewers: Quinn Priester’s walk-prone tendencies discussed. Flaherty’s elite form (0 ER vs Yankees) makes Tigers a lean.(37:13 - 41:01) Astros vs Cardinals: Lean early on Astros due to Hunter Brown's edge over Fetty, though bullpen concerns loom.(41:02 - 46:37) Promo Segment: MLB contest and subscription offer details – promo code “STRIKE50” discussed for discounts.(46:39 - 50:12) Angels vs Rangers: Corbin Day! Both pitchers have control issues. Munaf backs Angels team total and game over.(50:13 - 54:57) Cubs vs Padres: Imanaga's consistent form vs Vasquez’s wildness. Under and Cubs lean.(54:57 - 57:08) Rockies vs Dodgers: Rockies can't score; Feltner expected to struggle. Dodgers run line and team total over locked in.(57:09 - 59:30) Best Bets: Griffin – Rays ML (-125); Munaf – Yankees RL (+110).(59:31 - End) Closing Remarks: Reminder to use “STRIKE50” promo code, tease for next pod episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Munaf Manji and Mackeznie Rivers talk NBA playoff play-in games. The guys also give out best bets. 📌 Key Points Clave📉 Unders Trend: Play-In games show a 17-7 trend toward the under; especially strong (7-1) in 7 vs 8 matchups.📊 Magic Defense: Orlando is ranked 2nd on defense post-All-Star break and 1st in the last 30 days.🔥 Orlando at Home: 69.6% ATS at home since last season as favorites (39-17 ATS), 44-12 SU.🔋 Celtics Power: Boston’s net rating and roster stability make them overwhelming Eastern Conference favorites.📈 Thunder Dominance: Finished with 68-14 record, 1st overall and in net rating; strong title contenders.🔁 Cavs Form: Ended with a top-3 net rating despite late-season fatigue; seen as overrated compared to odds.💡 Surprise Teams: Suns are noted as a major disappointment, while Bulls are a surprisingly efficient late-season team.🧠 Coaching Impact: Miami’s edge lies with Erik Spoelstra, but Chicago is seen as the better overall team.🎯 Warriors' Struggles: 0-3 in play-in history, and one of the worst half-court offenses among playoff teams.📈 Kings vs Mavs Edge: Kings -5 favored due to better offensive consistency; Mavericks lack depth without Kyrie.📝 Summary ResumenOpening Play-In Preview (0:10–2:41)Munaf Manji introduces the play-in breakdown. Mackenzie jokes it's like Christmas, excited for playoff intensity. They begin with a recap of the Eastern Conference finish and potential Cavs matchups.Eastern Conference Analysis (2:42–6:39)Mackenzie projects Magic to beat the Hawks. He’s skeptical of Cavs' lofty odds despite their +9.2 net rating. Celtics remain his favorite due to balanced offense and defense.Western Conference Setup (7:01–11:57)Five 50-win teams highlight West strength. Thunder finished 68-14, Rockets 52-30. Lakers vs Timberwolves is a premier matchup. Mack praises Thunder’s consistent elite play.Surprises & Coaching Carousel (14:23–17:39)Mackenzie admits Suns were a huge betting miss. Munaf discusses Phoenix coaching turnover. Rumors include Durant trade if Thunder or Celtics lose in the finals.Magic vs Hawks Breakdown (17:39–22:35)Magic are 11-7 ATS post-ASB vs playoff teams. Missing Suggs hurts offense, but defense is elite. Hawks’ injuries (Capela, Johnson) reduce competitiveness. Total leans under.Warriors vs Grizzlies Breakdown (23:28–35:34)Despite Golden State being -7, both agree line is inflated. Warriors are 18th in playoff offensive rating; Grizzlies 6th worst. Both lean Grizzlies +7 and under. Historic home ATS for Warriors is weak.Heat vs Bulls Breakdown (35:34–38:17)Bulls have top-10 form since ASB. Heat slightly below average. Both like Bulls -1 and especially under 219 due to tactical slow pace and playoff urgency.Mavs vs Kings Breakdown (38:38–42:49)Kings should be -7 per Mack’s model. Dallas has lowest net rating among playoff teams since ASB. Davis prop of 11.5 rebounds favored, citing dominance vs Sacramento.Best Bets Recap (44:50–49:23)Munaf’s best bet: Bulls/Heat under 219. Secondary: Magic -5. Mackenzie: Magic -5 and leans early playoff game unders (especially Bucks/Pacers under).Finals Picks (51:51–56:12)Mack backs Thunder vs Celtics. Munaf playfully picks Rockets, then seriously leans Lakers due to Luka + LeBron combination and veteran roster. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Former MLB Pitcher Josh Towers and Scott Seidenberg discuss the latest stories around baseball with a look at the betting markets. 📌 Key Points📈 Sweep Betting System: Favorites in Game 3 of a potential sweep are 10-4; home teams avoiding sweeps are 8-2 (Profits: +$485 and +$565 respectively).📉 Underdog Performance: Underdogs in sweep games are only 6-10 and show a betting loss of -$201.🧠 Bullpen Strategy: Managers often signal “conceding” games by bullpen usage patterns, saving top relievers when already behind — criticized by Towers.📊 Live Betting Strategy: Scott suggests betting the live over (total runs) when a favorite is losing slightly late-game, offering more margin than moneyline bets.⚾ Player Highlight – Garrett Crochet: 7 no-hit innings, AL Cy Young favorite at +210. FIP showcases true dominance (1.23).🔥 Paul Skenes & Hunter Greene: Both NL Cy Young co-favorites at +300; Greene's 0.98 ERA over 27.2 IP stands out. Skenes’ FIP: 1.31.🧠 FIP vs ERA: Discussed how FIP is a better measure of pitcher skill than ERA, avoiding fielding biases.🫂 Mental Health in Baseball: Jarren Duran’s Netflix revelation about suicidal thoughts mirrors Drew Robinson’s survival and advocacy — sparking a deep talk on pressures in the minors.🏆 Award Markets: MVP races led by Judge (AL) and Ohtani (NL); Rookie of Year watch features Jacob Wilson and Christian Campbell.📉 Yankees’ Defensive Issues: Fried gave up 7 runs, only 3 earned — exposing the team's fielding liability.📚 SummarySweep Systems Analysis (0:02–3:05):Scott shares sweep avoidance betting data: favorites avoiding a sweep are 10-4; home teams 8-2; total teams 16-15. Betting on underdogs yields a -$201 return. Josh agrees that lineup decisions, like resting stars after series wins, influence outcomes.Managerial Decisions and Lineup Psychology (3:07–5:56):Josh explains how internal clubhouse dynamics affect lineup decisions. Players want to win series, not necessarily every game. Managers often rest regulars after clinching series wins, affecting competitiveness.Bullpen Usage Patterns (6:23–9:15):Josh criticizes managers for "conceding" games too early, using low-leverage relievers when down by just a couple of runs — citing Twins and Dodgers examples.Live Betting Strategy Deep Dive (11:11–14:24):Scott explains betting over on total runs (e.g., over 6.5) when a favorite is down 2-1. Offers more paths to winning than a comeback moneyline. Towers supports it, adding poor bullpen use often leads to late runs.Betting Woes and Run Expectancy (15:52–17:10):Scott laments losing an over 6.5 bet despite having a man on 3rd with 0 outs — supported by run expectancy matrix (1.43 runs expected). No run was scored.Old-School Strategy Missing in MLB (19:32–24:32):They debate modern strategy failings — no bunts, no hit-and-runs, poor situational hitting. Citing a Red Sox missed opportunity where Devers could have pulled a single if the runner hadn't been caught stealing.Mental Health – Duran & Robinson (25:01–29:17):Heartfelt discussion about Duran’s suicidal thoughts (from Netflix series), drawing parallels to Drew Robinson’s survival. Towers praises transparency and advocates teaching players how to fail and cope.Cy Young Odds Breakdown (29:17–35:38):AL: Crochet (+210), Skubal (+425)NL: Skenes & Greene (+300), Schwellenbach (+550)Schwellenbach: 0.45 ERA, 20 IP; FIP 2.35Yamamoto: 1.23 ERA in 22 IPFIP vs ERA Debate (40:00–41:40):Chris Bassitt leads FIP rankings (1.20). Scott and Josh stress writers will prioritize advanced metrics like FIP over surface stats like ERA or W-L record when voting for awards.Team Performance Trends (45:01–48:07):Padres: 10-0 at home, 13 wins total — only undefeated home team.White Sox (0-6), Rays & Mariners (0-3) winless on road.Dodgers' run differential = 0, despite high expectations. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner talk MLB betting for Saturday and Sunday. The guys also give out best bets. 📌 Key Points (Statistical Takeaways & Betting Angles)⚾ Chris Paddock fade: Paddock hasn’t passed the 4th inning in either start, giving up 9 and 3 ERs.📉 Jackson Jobe walk issue: 7 walks in 9 IP across two starts signals command concern.📈 Christopher Sanchez velocity spike: Up to 97–98 MPH, potentially unsustainable, but promising.🏡 Guardians’ home record: 57–33 since 2023, undefeated at home this year.📊 Mikolas vs. Phillies: Cards are 0–4 in Mikolas’ starts vs. PHI since 2023, losing each by multiple runs.🔥 Jordan Hicks’ early success: 6 shutout innings vs. Astros and 5.1 IP/3 ER vs. Mariners.💣 Corbin Burns walk issue: 7 BB in 11 IP with 6 ER in two road starts—not vintage Burns.🌬️ Weather edge in Cleveland & Chicago: Cold temps favor under totals (~40°F, wind in).🧃 Astros offensive spark: 14 runs on Friday may mark awakening—suspicion persists about pitching.📦 Roki Sasaki control concern: Great stuff but struggles with location, similar to Yamamoto’s 2024 start.📚 Summary of Content[Tigers vs. Twins (0:02–7:01)]Munaf and Griffin agree Chris Paddock is a fade (ERA over 10 in two starts). Tigers' Jackson Jobe has command issues (7 BB in 9 IP). Lean: Tigers ML + first 5 over.[Phillies vs. Cardinals (7:03–10:47)]Sanchez touted for Cy Young by some; rebounding after Dodgers outing. Mikolas has terrible history vs. PHI (0–4, run line failures). Munaf's best bet: Phillies RL.[Giants vs. Yankees (10:47–14:20)]Giants lauded for road performance. Yankees’ Will Warren expected to make final start. Hicks solid so far. Lean: Giants ML, Under due to cold/wind.[Blue Jays vs. Orioles (14:33–18:14)]Povich has poor history vs. TOR (0–2, 8.38 ERA). Barrios rebounded in last 2 starts. Winds in Camden Yards mild. Leans: Over + Blue Jays ML.[Nationals vs. Marlins (18:16–21:32)]Sandy Alcantara hasn't returned to form; 4 BB in last outing. Trevor Williams quietly effective. Lean: Nationals ML + Over 7.5.[Red Sox vs. White Sox (21:32–24:55)]Cold Chicago temps favor Under. Fitz surprisingly strong; Perez stellar (1 ER in 12 IP). Lean: White Sox ML + Under.[Braves vs. Rays (24:57–27:59)]Rasmussen solid but Braves underdogs? Surprising. Smith-Shawver showing promise. Griffin leans Braves ML. Munaf prefers Under 8.5.[Royals vs. Guardians (28:00–30:14)]Lorenzen serviceable, Ortiz vulnerable. Guardians elite at home (63% win rate since 2023). Griffin’s best bet: Guardians ML.[Angels vs. Astros (30:14–34:29)]Astros may be waking up offensively. Gusto untested. Tyler Anderson prone to blow-ups. Lean: Over 8.5, slight lean Astros ML.[Brewers vs. Diamondbacks (37:19–40:50)]Burns has 7 BB in 2 starts—uncharacteristic. Chad Patrick has impressed. Leans: First 5 Over 4.5, stay away from sides.[Rockies vs. Padres (40:50–44:53)]Kyle Hart and Dolander both unproven. Padres offense capable. Lean: Game Over, especially if Padres’ bats wake up.[Cubs vs. Dodgers (44:53–48:59)]Dodgers crushed Cubs in Tokyo and now in LA. Ben Brown wild (9 BB in 11 IP). Munaf leans Dodgers TT Over 4.5, Griffin likes Cubs RL.[Roki Sasaki Forecast (50:43–53:20)]Griffin expects short outings; control needs work. Fade spots will appear, but risky without clear signals.[Yamamoto Trend (53:20–54:12)]Yamamoto now dominating. Reinforces transition curve for Japanese pitchers.[Rangers vs. Mariners (54:13–56:47)]Rocker inconsistent; Wu elite at T-Mobile (10–1). Rangers hit Wu hard in past, but game likely Under 7. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices