Horns of a Dilemma

Half a century later, the Vietnam War continues to shape U.S. foreign policy, from its debates over foreign intervention to the institutions of its military. Why does the war remain such a poignant influence, and what lessons have policymakers, scholars, and the public learned (or failed to learn) from America's disastrous campaign in Southeast Asia? WOTR Managing Editor Usha Sahay had the chance to discuss the legacy of Vietnam with an all-star cast in Austin, Texas.

When it comes to cyber-security, the United States seems to be perpetually behind the 8-ball. A provision in the new defense bill seeks to solve this. Down in Austin, the dream team of experts explains the Cyber Solarium: an exercise in strategic planning inspired by an early Cold War planning cell. Starting with the Eisenhower-era roots of this concept, Will Inboden, Celeste Ward Gventer, Bobby Chesney, and Stephen Slick explain how the Cyber Solarium, an initiative of Sen. Ben Sasse, is described in law and will play out.  As Slick explains, a key player in the success of this venture will be the intelligence community. Will they support it with their best and brightest? 

From world leaders, to commercial titans, to scholars, more and more people are coming to believe that advances in artificial intelligence will change the world in dramatic ways. From the workplace to the military balance of power, the shifts, we are told, will be radical. But is this the case? In the third issue of the Texas National Security Review, Michael Horowitz of Penn has written the most comprehensive article weighing how and why artificial intelligence could matter when it comes to national security arena and the balance of power. Listen to Ryan Evans, the publisher of TNSR, chat to Michael about his article and these potentially earth-shaking technological advances that stand before us.  

In the third issue of the Texas National Security Review, Michael Mazarr of RAND and Michael Kofman of CNA warn decision-makers in Washington against doubling down on U.S. military and geopolitical predominance lest they transform the global stage into something far more confrontational and zero-sum than it needs to be. Despite the often odious behavior of those ruling Russia and China, Mazarr and Kofman point to the prospective benefits of "a new U.S. approach to international affairs" that would treat these two powers "with a degree of political respect and legitimacy, rather than as miscreants opposed to the true and right vision of the future." As they write in their essay: "This does not mean that the United States should abandon its efforts to hold them to some standard. Quite the contrary. It is only by reining in its absolutism and behaving in a more multilateral and flexible fashion that the United States is likely to gain the global support it needs to sustain the most essential rules of the post-war order."    

For the third issue of TNSR, Julie Smith - a former government official and CNAS senior fellow - writes in the Strategist section on her efforts to engage Americans across the country on the value of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as well as our deep political and economic relationships with the nations of Europe.   Check out the rest of issue three at tnsr.org    

Mutual mistrust, saber-rattling, and heated rhetoric define the U.S. relationship with Russia. If it looks like a new Cold War and smells like a new Cold War, is it a new Cold War? If it's not, what is it? From the 1990s to the present, how did we get here? Why did the West's hopes for Russia in the aftermath of the Cold War dissolve? How does Russia view its current strategic position? What are the limits of its growing influence in the Middle East and other regions? How long will Putin remain in power? What should the United States do about Russia? Can they make a deal?  In a wide-ranging, fascinating, and intellectually rich speech, Angela Stent tackles these questions and more.  Stent is the director of the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies (CERES) and a professor in the Department of Government and the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. She is also a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Stent is the author of many books and articles on the relationships between the United States, Russia and Europe. She is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Advisory Board of the Eurasia Foundation, and of Supporters of Civil Society in Russia. Stent previously served as a member of the advisory panel for NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe and  on the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council for Russia and Central Asia. She is the former National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council (2004-2006) and staff member in the Office of Policy Planning at the U.S. Department of State (1999-2001).  

In our last episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we featured a speech by Dan Coats, the director of national intelligence. At the very same conference​, organized by the Intelligence Studies Project -- a collaborative effort of the Strauss and Clements Centers down at the University of Texas -- there was a fascinating conversation moderated by Michele L. Malvesti of Tufts University, that featured John McLaughlin, the former Acting Director of Central Intelligence, Nicholas Rasmussen, former Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, and Norman Roule, former National Intelligence Manager for Iran.     

What challenges confront the U.S. intelligence community in the 21st century? There are few better positioned to know the answers to that question than Dan Coats, the director of national intelligence. The Intelligence Studies Program, a collaborative initiative of the Strauss Center and the Clements Center down at the University of Texas, held a major conference recently where Coats was the keynote speaker. Listen to his wide-ranging remarks on North Korea, Russia, China, cyber-security, terrorism, and how the United States is a bit like the New York Yankees. Hear why, for Coats, America's ability to handle these challenges depends on a talented and more capable workforce. And hear why Coats is treating the reform of the security clearance process as an urgent issue.   

This is Horns of a Dilemma, the podcast partner to that journal, which features the thinkers and leaders resident at the various institutions of the University of Texas and those who stop in to share their wisdom.  On the latest episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we have Amy Zegart, who was hosted at the University of Texas as a part of the Strauss Center's Brumley Speaker Series. You should know who Amy is already, but if you don’t she is co-director of the Stanford Center for International Security and Cooperation and the Davies Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. To call this a talk about cybersecurity would be accurate, but it wouldn’t do this wide-ranging and fascinating episode justice.    

In the second episode of our new podcast series, "Horns of a Dilemma," William Inboden interviews Mark Updegrove, president and chief Executive of the LBJ Foundation, and author of the new book The Last Republicans: Inside the Extraordinary Relationship Between George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush (Harper 2017). This new book draws on interviews with both Bush presidents to explore their formative experiences as well as their perspectives on public service, America’s role in the world, Donald Trump, and the transmutation of the Republican Party that has transfixed the United States and turned its politics upside-down.