Horns of a Dilemma

Former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is remembered for many things, among them his iconic observation that, "There are known knowns--there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns--that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know." The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine is full of reminders of the importance of understanding what we know, recognizing what we don't know, and being open to the idea that there is likely more we don't yet know. In order to help make sense of it, the Clements Center for National Security, Asia Policy Program, LBJ School of Public Affairs, Strauss Center for International Security and Law, Intelligence Studies Project, and Center for Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies at the University of Texas, Austin hosted "War in Ukraine: An Expert Panel Discussion" on Wednesday, March 2. The experts included Will Inboden, executive director of the Clements Center (and editor-in-chief of TNSR); Bobby Chesney, director of the Strauss Center; Jeremi Suri, Mack Brown Distinguished Chair for Leadership in Global Affairs at the University of Texas, Austin; Sheena Greitens, founding director of the Asia Policy Program; Stephen Slick, director of the Intelligence Studies Project; Alexandra Sukalo, postdoctoral fellow at the Clements Center; and, Zoltán Fehér, predoctoral fellow at the Clements Center, and a former Hungarian diplomat. This discussion is essential listening for a better understanding of the ongoing aggressive war being waged by Russia and its implications for international security.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from Joanna Chiu, author of China Unbound: A New World Disorder. Informed by over a decade reporting on human rights in China, Chiu brings a nuanced view of the way in which Western leaders, both those who had faith in the ability of capitalism to bring democratic reform, and those who adopted a hard-nosed realpolitik view, have been complicit in China's rise and have enabled widespread suppression of free expression and human rights abuses by the Chinese Communist Party.  Chiu illuminates the role of economics, power politics, and the narrow pursuit of Western self-interest in helping to give rise to a Chinese state that stands opposed to Western values. This talk was given at the University of Texas, Austin as part of the Asia Policy Program, sponsored jointly by the Clements Center for National Security and the Strauss Center for International Security and Law. Chiu is introduced by Professor Sheena Greitens, founding director of the Asia Policy Program.

In the late 1980's a Ukrainian-born immigrant to the United States who took the stage name Yakov Smirnoff became a brief comedy sensation with lines such as, "In Russia, we have only two TV channels. Channel 1 is propaganda. Channel 2 is a KGB officer telling you to turn back to channel one." This week's Horns of a Dilemma podcast explores the uncomfortable ways in which jokes about stifled expression in the Soviet Union still resonate in Russia today. Vladimir Kara-Murza is a Russian politician and opposition leader who was twice poisoned and left in a coma by agents of Vladimir Putin's regime. Kara-Murza speaks with Professor Kiril Avramov of the Strauss Center's Intelligence Studies Project and the Global Disinformation Laboratory at the University of Texas, Austin, about freedom of expression and political dissent in contemporary Russia under Putin.  Kara-Murza and Avramov discuss the role of propaganda, the rigging of elections, and the effect of social media on Putin's control of information. They conclude with an analysis of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. This event was held at the University of Texas, Austin.

Cyber security presents a particular challenge because, in addition to the rapidly changing threat environment and enormous potential attack surface, no single person or organizaiton has authority over all of the players whose cooperation is necessary to keep public and private networks and information secure. In this week's Horns of a Dilemma, Bobby Chesney, director of the Strauss Center at the University of Texas, Austin, speaks with Brandon Wales, executive director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA). Wales' job is to ensure effective collaboration in cyber security efforts. In this discussion, he highlights the authorities available to CISA and discusses responses to several recent vulnerabilities. This discussion was held as part of the "Cyber 9/12 Challenge" conducted by the Strauss Center at the University of Texas, Austin.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we listen to a discussion between Clements Center Executive Director (and TNSR editor in chief) Will Inboden, and Professor Hal Brands of Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies. They are talking about Brands' new book, Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us About About Great Power Rivalry Today.  While the  geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China is frequently described as "a new Cold War," Brands and Inboden go far deeper than a mere surface comparison to illuminate the ways in which the Cold War experience may help to guide American strategists in the competition with China, as well as ways in which policymakers would be ill-advised to treat today's strategic challenges as a sequel to the competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. This event was held at the University of Texas, Austin.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from Professor Sandra Fahy of Carleton University about the way in which states use video evidence to try to falsely defend themselves against claims of human rights abuses. While many of us might associate misleading video with modern technology, such as deep-fakes, Fahy traces the phenomenon to the earliest days of video and shows how it continues through the present in states such as Korea, China, and Afghanistan under the Taliban. This event was sponsored by the Asia Policy Project, a joint program of the Clements Center and the Strauss Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and is introduced by Professor Sheena Greitens of the LBJ School at the University of Texas, Austin.

As the threat of Russian invasion looms over Ukraine, this week's epsiode of Horns of a Dilemma helps to clarify the origins of the post-Cold War security structure in Europe and the role of NATO expansion and enlargement in defining both Western and Russian threat perception.  Clements Center Executive Director Will Inboden sits down with Professor Mary Sarrotte to discuss her book, Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate. Key among the many issues they discuss is the competing visions between Russian and American and European leaders regarding the status of Ukraine.  This event was held in November at the University of Texas, Austin and sponsored by the Clements Center.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we continue with a panel discussion that follows author Wesley Morgan's discussion of his book, The Hardest Place. If you haven't listened to last week's episode, which includes Morgan's book talk, you may want to do so, since this week's episode includes discussion of events that are covered in Morgan's talk. This event was held at the University of Texas, Austin, and sponsored by the Clements Center and the McCombs School of Business.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, the first of two parts, author Wesley Morgan discusses his book, The Hardest Place: The American Military Adrift in Afghanistan's Pech Valley. Morgan has written an extraordinary biography of the American presence in Afghanistan, focusing on one particular place, and through the history of the American war in that place, capturing the 20-year American war effort in it heroism, nobility, hubris, and folly.  Morgan spoke at the University of Texas, Austin, in an event jointly sponsored by the Clements Center and the McCombs School of Business. He is introduced by Paul Edgar, Associate Director of the Clements Center.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from retired U.S. Army Colonel Dr. Christopher Kolenda about his new book, Zero Sum Victory: What We Get Wrong About War.  Kolenda draws on his experience in Iraq and Afghanistan to help explain why it feels as if the United States has had what he calls "the inverse Midas touch" when it comes to interventions: everything we've tried has bogged down into quagmire or defeat.  Kolenda's argues that U.S. leaders aren't adept at identifying measures of success other than total victory, that they are slow to learn and adapt, and that when the decision is made to withdraw, they often mishandled that process, as well.  This talk was given at the University of Texas, Austin.