The Other Hand

How many centrist political parties does Ireland need? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Another year of forecasts, mostly wrong. And another season for making forecasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Over 100 countries will have elections of one kind or another during 2024. Some analysts think that will be the largest number in history. A lot of those elections could be very consequential.We start the year with Taiwanese elections - the outcome could well provoke China, widely thought to be preparing for a possible war by the end of the decade.We end with the possible return of Trump. How bad could that be? Unimaginably bad. The Colorado Supreme Court made a last dict stand for democracy but the Trump-stuffed Supreme Court in DC knows which side its bread is buttered.As well as a large number of elections, we observe a large number of wars. A secure job occupation for youngsters would be a drone operator. That could be a job for life and one that survives any upcoming European war.The Shinners reinvent economic policy: they want to drive huge numbers of recent mortgagees into negative equity. Fantasy economics will not deter the fans of Ireland's extremists. Every Western country these days has to prove Putin is right in at least one thing: we truly are all decadent. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The IDA's annual report on companies supported by them shows tech job losses. This is consistent with Ireland's external trade data - although the latter remains heavily distorted by post-pandemic return to normal for pharmaceutical exports.Three central banks met this week. All left interest rates unchanged but delivered very different messages. Members of the Federal Reserve's rate setting committee explicitly forecast US rate cuts next year. At a time when the US economy remains in rude health, is growing strongly and the labour market remains very tight.The Bank of England and the ECB both said it is far too early to be even thinking about rate cuts, despite weak economies. Three BoE rate setting headbangers even voted for rate hikes!At least one of these central banks is going to be wrong. Probably all of them. All we are prepared to predict is that your mortgage and other borrowing costs are likely to change next year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jim returns from Canada and stresses the scope for improved economic & business ties with Ireland.Inflation is coming down but the world's central banks are poised to to do battle with the markets and disabuse them of their assumptions about rapid interest rate cuts next year. Falling interest rate expectations have helped some mortgage rates to ease, especially in the US and UK. House prices have reacted in time honoured fashion and are showing signs of rising again.Is the great house price correction, so desired by so many people, over before it got going?Could the world economy be stabilising and 2024 prospects improving - contrary to most forecasts?What is wrong with Rishi Sunak? How can a man so smart - and decent - get it so badly wrong? One answer: he doesn't get politics. Which is a bit strange for a Prime Minister. In particular, his business background means he believes that reasonable people can be negotiated with. You don't meet too many ideological wing-nuts in hedge -fund land - at least not ones who survive for very long. Sunak's mistake is to assume that his fractious, hard-right colleagues can be bargained with. Whatever they are given, whatever he concedes, it is never enough.The West is failing Ukraine. Putin could now win. And he won't stop at Ukraine. A new European war could be the result. That's not just tragic for Ukraine but also for our sons and daughters who will be asked to fight that war. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In conversation with professor Shane O'Mara of Trinity College Dublin.Novo Nordisk has become Europe's largest, most valuable, company on the back of some new weight-loss drugs.Is the hype justified?It's early days but the preliminary evidence is an emphatic yes!There are familiar caveats: potential side effects and cost.But these drugs do seem to work.And not just for weight loss - this is where it gets more speculative/preliminary but there are hints that the drugs' effects on the brain could have some positive benefits for other types of addictions, not just those involving food.Maybe we should just all buy the shares? (This is not an investing tipping podcast!!!)Will the producers of ultra processed foods go the way of tobacco companies?Could these drugs even help us survive Christmas (this really is at the highly speculative/no data end of the spectrum :))Shane O'Mara | Professor of Experimental Brain Research | School of Psychology andInstitute of Neuroscience | Trinity College, Dublin - the University of Dublin, D02 PN40,IrelandHis new book: Talking Heads: The New Science of How Conversation Shapes Our Worlds His newsletter: BrainPizza Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jim shares his impressions of the state of Irish-Canada relations during a tour of the major east coast cities.Also in the frame: latest Exchequer returns and GDP data. Boom and bust in a week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Inflation surprises, again, by its rapid fall. But central bankers have been telling us that the 'last mile' will take years. The markets have been laughing at those central bankers. And it is said that our monetary masters value their 'credibility'. Self-awareness training wouldn't go amiss. Or maybe they should just hire a decent PR agency. A week of obituaries. The death of the greatest investor and one of the richest - that most people will never have heard of. Henry Kissinger: greatest statesman ever or war criminal?It's being said that if the Democrats replaced Biden, they would win by a landslide. It's also being said that if the Republican's replace Trump, they will win by a landslide. Nikki Haley is an outside bet for the GOP nomination - even Trump could be persuaded if she promises him a full pardon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The right is rising, even in Ireland. Each country has its own drivers but immigration is a unifying grievance.How big a problem is this in Ireland?Should we all abandon social media? Follow the example of the mayor of Paris?What are the economics of immigration? When people say "we should spend our money on our own citizens" are they right? Or just not able to do arithmetic?The grass isn't always greener elsewhere. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What will be the business and economic consequences of the Dublin riots?There is often trouble when large pools of uneducated, unemployed young men are organised by old men - mad mullahs, army councils, Trump-style demagogues. The list of suspects is a long one. Whether that trouble fizzles out or leads to revolution depends on many things. Mostly how the rest of us react to far right (or left) neo-fascism.Data continue to point to a very robust Irish labour market. Export (especially chemical & pharma) weakness has yet to lead to significant net job losses. Similarly, high profile layoffs in the tech sector are not showing up in the job stats. We are still short of workers. But not, apparently, rioters on scooters. Are they on benefits?The UK’s Autumn Statement was a blast from the past. Transparent fiddling of the numbers, utterly unrealistic forecasts of fiscal austerity post-election and an unaffordable, unsustainable tax cut. Whoever wins the next election will have to reverse that tax cut and then some. Somebody needs a plan to get the UK economy going again. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.