The Other Hand

More thoughts on the. Economics of Irish reunification Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Professor Edgar Morgenroth has recently published a joint paper with professor John Fitzgerald that takes a deep dive into the potential costs of Irish reunification.We talk to Edgar about his work. We look at lessons from german reunification and the asumptions behind his estimates that it could cost the Irish taxpayer a lot of money. And a lot of sweat and tears.Planning will be essential. Bad outcomes after ill thought out referendums have historical precedent. Brexit for instance. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Watch the oil price Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Irish and Eurozone inflation falls again - what is the ECB waiting for?In the US, the super soaraway economy is dashing hopes of quick rate cuts . Perhaps any rate cuts. We need to remind ourselves that this is a good thing. Will the earthquake in Taiwan create another supply shock? We think not but it is worth watching. So are oil prices worth close monitoring.Preparing for war on islands just off Taiwan.Is the EV craze cresting?Why do some US Republicans believe anything that Putin says?We look at the history of civilian casualties during wartime. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

One of the first thing that economists are taught is the Free Trade is a Good Thing. One thing that economists don't speak too much about is that free trade creates both winners and losers. Arguably, not nearly enough attention has been paid to the losers.Whether or free trade is always a net positive depends on many factors. And the alternatives to free trade - the choices made by politicians about things like protectionism - can be even worse. That said, China's accession to the World Trade Organisation was a huge shock and wiped out huge swathes of manufacturing industry and jobs throughout the developed world. Too much too soon seems have been the case. Those left behind communities became the hunting ground for Trump, Brexiteers and populists. They stil are - and there is a distinct possibility of a second China shock coming our way. What will be the results this time?Irish SMEs complain about government inspired costs and regulatory burdens. Are they right to moan? A lot of SMEs are either failing or in danger of going bust.Interest rates: the new normal isn't too far away from where they are now. Discuss. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Leading journalist Sarah Carey talks to Jim and Chris about Leo Varadkar's departure and Simon Harris' accession.'Harris needs to be much more than a good communicator'. The big test, one of many, will be his choice of cabinet. That will signal whether genuine change is on the way. 'The reshuffle will tell us if Harris is serious'Will any exiting FG TDs be tempted back?Why are so many voices of the centre so scared to speak up?Why do 'progressives' oppose building anything?Harris should ban his party from social media.Mainstream media ( we are looking at you Fintan and Una) is as responsible as Sinn Fein for painting Ireland as a failed state. All of the evidence, with full acknowledgement of all of the problems, shows emphatically that Ireland is the opposite of a dystopian hell hole.Sinn Fein have peaked. The electorate is waking up to the fact that they offer slogan without solutions. The ones to watch are the independents. Maybe some of them should be tempted into government via ministerial appointments - but only if they join the Party.Politicians take all of the blame and none of the credit. It's a cruel and thankless gig. Maybe FG need a spell in opposition? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Global growth showing signs of acceleration Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markets are telling us to stop worrying Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A packed podcast!For the past year or so we have been noticing weakness in Irish exports, particularly pharmaceuticals and one or two other key areas. Falling exports were a big driver of the Irish 'recession' last year.At least part of this was Covid related and the fall represented payback for the massive boost arising from exports of vaccine and other health related products during the pandemic. It's only one month's data, so shouldn't be over-interpreted, but latest numbers hint at two things. First, normalisation of exports may be close. Second, as the quintessential small open economy, Ireland is a bell-weather for the world economy. Maybe there is a hint of global trade and global growth picking up.Maybe the U.S. won’t cut rates at all this year?Irish inflation continues its fall.Oil prices edging up again. China - the one economy where we cannot talk about a positive growth surprise.interest rates at current levels are maybe the new normal?Macron’e Ukrainian epiphanyJim disappears down the crypto rabbit hole Happy St Patrick’s day! Ireland’s soft power is worth billions. Only idiots begrudge its exercise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Everybody in financial markets is starting to ask: is this another bubble, a near quarter century after the dot.com crash? Are those comparisons with 1999/2000 valid or is the AI boom for real? What does AI think of the AI 'bubble'?The UK ends its mild recession but lots of workers are going on the sick - the long term sick. This could be a real problem for growth prospects.The Central Bank of Ireland forecasts a robust irish economy and muses about workers shifting from building offices to constructing houses. If so, that's good news.The people of `Ireland have given two fingers to the political establishment. Patronise the electorate at your peril. Could Sinn Fein be the big loser from the referendum debacle? Another European lurch to the right, this time in Portugal. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.