Deconstruct

What goes up must come down, right? That’s one of the myths that has followed the Sun Belt’s multifamily market for decades, says Real Page Chief Economist Jay Parsons. It’s the idea of a boom and bust cycle, wherein strong periods of investment give way to supply levels that overserve demand. In practice, though, the Sun Belt has proved itself a market as or more resilient than many coastal cities. Here’s the rundown on why 2023 will likely be no different.

Michael Shvo doesn't care about how other people's office buildings are doing, just his own. He also thinks it's time for some of New York's office buildings to be demolished and rebuilt. TRD's Deconstruct sat down with the luxury developer to discuss the capital he deployed during the pandemic, why he's bullish on the office market in New York and San Francisco, and how he's taking advantage of a lack of office space in Miami Beach.

From LA to D.C., tenant protections have emerged as the policy du jour after two years of rising rents cemented affordaiblity as a headline issue. Los Angeles has rolled out a patchwork of renter-friendly policies; the White House made a push for better regulation of the rental market and six states are eyeing reforms that would allow cities to instate their own versions of rent control. So what’s the rub? Economists say capping rents is the best way to kill affordability. Deconstruct has the break down and also looks at the top news of last week. Guest: National Multifamily Housing Council President Sharon Wilson Geno Credits: a16z, Fox Business, KABC-AM, Democracy Now, KCAL News, KTLA 5

Last week, the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the eighth time in less than a year, sending benchmark rates to their highest level since 2007. For a mortgage market that has seized in the wake of higher financing costs, another rate hike would seem to be bad news. But Nadia Evangelou, senior economist at the National Association of Realtors, says the slowing pace of hikes could offer markets the type of certainty that could revive mortgage demand.

Twitter has stopped paying its rent, auctioned off furniture and let go half of its employees. None of that is helping Shorenstein and JPMorgan refinance a $400 million loan on the company’s San Francisco headquarters. Deconstruct chats with TRD reporter Emily Landes about Twitter's fights at the building and how it's emblematic of the larger impact of tech's shakeup on the San Francisco Office Market.

Times Square hotels are headed to bankruptcy. Investors are clawing at distressed properties in Chicago. High interest rates are making it harder for investors to transact. And in California, more supply is coming offline, as developers look to hotels for adaptive reuse projects. Deconstruct chats with Atlas Hospitality Group president Alan Reay about the looming distress across the hotel industry, but where investors are finding pockets of hope.

Times Square is already full of tourists, billboard glitz and Broadway shows. SL Green, New York's largest landlord, is now bidding to build a casino in the entertainment hub. The firm has placed a bid with the city to take up one of three casino licenses up for grab in Downstate New York. The Real Deal's Deconstruct chats with SL Green executive Brett Herschenfeld about why the firm chose Times Square and why it has teamed up with Caesars on its plans. Further reading: https://therealdeal.com/2022/12/05/going-for-the-jackpot-a-look-at-the-high-rollers-competing-to-build-nyc-casinos/ Credits: New York Governor Kathy Hochul's State of the State 2023 address

On Tuesday, Jan. 10, Gov. Kathy Hochul delivers her State of the State address for 2023. Deconstruct has the scoop on where the governor's priorities lie when it comes to New York real estate. Hint: Affordable housing is a huge one.

It's the end of the year as we know it, and investors feel — uncertain. Rate hikes have slowed deals in the second half of 2022 and Fed Chair Jay Powell said there's more pain to come. But how long will all the available dry powder stagnate on the sidelines? Deconstruct breaks down 2023 forecasts for multifamily, retail, industrial and office and chats with Moody's Senior Economist Thomas LaSalvia about when the deal dam might break.

High rates and uncertain times have seen traditional CRE transactions falter in recent months. But for deal-hungry investors, Harrison Street CEO Christopher Merrill says there's an alternative — alternative assets. The executive makes the case that once-fringe investment vehicles like student housing or self-storage hold the recession-proof demand and repricing power investors are craving.