The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

The gold price printed its highest ever weekly close on Friday. What do new highs usually lead to? Yup. More new highs. Is it too late to buy gold? Nope. Should you own some? Yup. Everyone should own some gold. Put 5% of your net worth into gold and hope it doesn’t go up. That’s the old Wall Street adage that I am forever quoting, and I quote it again today.Here are my thoughts on gold and the latest developments in the Great Unravelling of Fiat. The de-dollarisation trend continuesFor the record, gold’s all-time high was $2,089. That came in August 2020, amidst the Covid money-printing bonanza. Get past that level and there really will be a lot of noise.I have, as long time readers - or should I say sufferers? - will know, been wittering on about de-dollarisation since more or less the dawn of time. But the de-dollarisation narrative really seems to have taken hold these past few weeks and hit the mainstream.Just yesterday I read that French President, Emmanuel Macron, while in China at the weekend, said to President Xi. “I want to take the opportunity to insist on one point: we should not depend on the extraterritoriality of the US dollar.”We can quibble over whether extraterritoriality is even a word, but the gist of his statement is pretty clear and it comes on the back of deals China has made in recent weeks with Russia, Brazil and Saudi Arabia to bypass the dollar and trade using the Chinese yuan.At the “Russian Davos” – the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum – in New Delhi a fortnight ago, Russia’s State Duma Dep Chairman Alexander Babakov stated that a BRICS alliance was working on a new currency secured by gold and other commodities, including rare-earth elements.Tucker Carlson of Fox News delivered an impassioned monologue on the subject last week, and it went viral garnering millions of views. “If you want the rest of the world to trust your currency, the last thing you would do is use it as a weapon or print too much of it”, he said. “But if Mitch McConnell and Joe Biden and the rest of these reckless leaders have their way, an increasing number of countries will do what so many have already done, which is begin to reject the U.S. dollar and what will happen then? “Well, all those dollars will come home and the value of our currency will plummet even further, and that will lead to poverty across the United States, and that will lead to the typical political and cultural volatility that inevitably follows economic collapse, disaster, and we've seen it before”.It’s classic goldbug erotica. He even cited the fact that nobody knows how much gold is in Fort Knox because it has not been audited for generations.  Even Elon Musk has been tweeting about de-dollarisation, exporting inflation and the likelihood of bank runs accelerating. I must say, I get a little bit concerned as narratives mature. The more widespread and well-formed the story, the more likely it is about to run out of steam. That said, the trend is strong and it’s up. Gold miners are too cheapAnother concern I have about this move is that woeful relative performance of the gold miners. In a trusty bull market, you want to see the miners leading the gold price higher. They are doing no such thing. The juniors (as measured by benchmark ETF, GDXJ) are a good 35% off their 2020 highs, and a quite astounding 70% off their 2011 highs at the climax of the last bull market.One explanation for this is that their input costs – energy and equipment – are rising more than the gold price is rising, which impacts their profitability. Even so, you want to see miners behaving better than this. Maybe a break-out to new highs will give them the boost they need. Maybe they are forecasting a correction. Either way, you can’t argue with the fact that they are cheap.Please subscribe to this amazing publication.Gold reserves are risingI have written before about bearer assets – assets that are nobody’s liability. Gold is the most famous example. Gold has existed since before the solar system was formed and it will exist long after the human race has shuffled off this mortal coil. It is Nature’s money, "a child of God,” according to an Ancient Greek lyric, and “neither moth nor rust devoureth it.” Spandau Ballet went with the rather more catchy “indestructible”. “Money is gold, and nothing else,” the financier JP Morgan once said (this is one of the most misquoted lines on the internet - here we quote him correctly). Everything else, as James Turk argues in his latest book Money and Liberty, be it dollar, pound, silver, or crypto, even the mackerel that sometimes changes hands in American prisons, is currency. Most currency is credit. Money in the bank, as few seem to realise, is credit.That is why gold sits at the top of the hierarchy of financial instruments, as we see from this slide from analyst Jan Nieuwenhuijs. In the same article, in which he makes a case for $8,000 gold, Nieuwenhuijs presents international reserves. You can see how central banks have been increasing their reserves since the financial crisis of 2008. You can also see that accumulation has accelerated this past year, when central banks have been buying gold at the fastest rate since the 1960s. Perhaps more significantly, it’s not just international gold reserves that are increasing, but, since 2018, gold reserves relative to other assets have also turned up. We are nowhere near the Bel Epoq levels where this chart begins, but the fact that we have turned up is I think significant.What is being planned?Moreover, the above data all assume China has been transparent about its gold holdings, which it has not been. China’s gold holdings are, I have argued, probably ten times higher than they say they are.I keep saying it. We are in interesting times. Own some gold. And hope it doesn’t go up.If you are interested in investing in gold, my guide is here.My current recommended bullion dealer in the UK is The Pure Gold Company, whether you are taking delivery or storing online. Premiums are low, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, US, Canada and Europe, or you can store your gold with them. I have affiliation deals with them.An earlier version of this article first appeared at Moneyweek. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Today is April 6, the beginning of the new tax year In the UK. Odd that the UK tax year should begin on such an apparently random date as April 6, but there is a reason.Once upon a time, the new year in England did not begin in the middle of winter on January 1. The year was aligned with the seasons and it began around the spring equinox (when the length of day and night is the same) on 25 March – Lady Day.England operated on the Julian calendar (so named because it came into law under Julius Caesar). Lady Day was one of the four quarter days, the other three being Midsummer Day (24 June), Michaelmas (29 September) and Christmas Day. Quarter days were important days. They were when rents were paid, accounts were due, servants were hired and school terms began. The tradition went the way back to medieval times (in fact probably back to the days of Roman rule).As Lady Day fell between ploughing and harvesting, it became the date on which long-term contracts between farmer and land-owner would begin, so it also came to be the first day of the fiscal and contractual year. Farmers could often be seen travelling from old farm to new on Lady Day. In 1582, Pope Gregory XIII introduced the Gregorian calendar, and Europe, led by France, began to adopt it. Scotland, both independent and Catholic at the time, switched in 1600. Protestant England, however, did not embrace this Catholic innovation and stayed with what it knew.Eventually, in 1751, to address the growing problem of ‘dual dating’ (people using different calendars), and to be consistent with both Scotland and the rest of Europe, Parliament passed the Calendar Act, and Britain switched from the Julian to the Gregorian calendar. January 1 became the first day of the new year.1751 became a short year, running only from March to December, but England still had to adjust by 11 days in order to align the two calendars. So it was decided that Wednesday 2 September 1752, would be followed by Thursday 14 September. Thus did England ‘lose’ 11 days.Taxes and other dues still had to be paid on Lady Day, 25 March, however, and of course collectors wanted the full amount. But people wanted something for the 11 days they had lost. ‘Give us our eleven days!’ they cried. There are even stories of riots breaking out.A compromise was reached by moving the start of the fiscal year back 11 days, to April 6. It has remained the beginning of the tax year ever since.Share this interesting little anecdote on social media.And why not subscribe to the Flying Frisby as well?.The above is a from Daylight Robbery: How tax shaped our past and will change our future. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

I didn’t get involved in the Lineker wars, mainly because I had other stuff on, but the affair triggered a little moment of realisation in me. That is: how conflation is used as a political weapon. It probably always was, but today, in all this political and philosophical division, conflation seems to be everywhere. The Great Conflationconflationnoun the act or process of merging two or more separate sets of information, texts, ideas etc into one wholeThe intention, with deliberate conflation, is often dishonest, usually to confuse. It’s a technique frequently used by lawyers in courts. Often the conflation arises from actual confusion, however.In the Lineker wars, Team Gary conflated the issue of free speech with that of impartiality. Yes, there is crossover in the Venn diagram. There always is, otherwise the conflation does not work.Gary should be able to say what he likes. Free speech! Well, yes, but not if you are a BBC presenter, runs the other side of the argument. Presenters should be impartial. Many are, but so many are not it is no wonder people think the BBC is not impartial, but biased. The issue that Lineker was arguing about has also been conflated. Legal migrants, asylum seekers and refugees should be distinguished from illegal migrants and people trafficking, but the two have been conflated. Because of that conflation, it has become impossible to have a sensible conversation about immigration without emotions getting in the way and wild accusations of racism and all the rest of it being thrown about. (Racism itself is forever being conflated with other things to the point that now anything non-positive said about a person of colour can be construed as racist. Indeed now even positive things are being called out for being racist).My plan in this article was to call out other areas of conflation, because once you see conflation, it’s very hard to un-see. The more people that see it, therefore, the better the chance of some kind of truth returning to public discourse. I was planning to highlight a few areas of conflation, followed by a short discussion of each. But it turns out there are so many, to discuss each one would be exhausting both for reader and writer. So, instead, I’ve put together this list.(Perhaps in future articles, I’ll come back and discuss individual conflations in more detail).List of common conflations* Elections and democracy* Free speech and impartiality* Legal and illegal migration* The law and fascism* Justice and equality* Speech and violence* Journalism and activism* Opinions and facts* Statistics and truth* Europe and the EU* The state and society* Free markets and capitalism* Education and indoctrination* Free speech and hate speech* Morality and religion* Patriotism and nationalism* Brexit and take your pick* Equality of opportunity and equality of outcome* Cultural appropriation and cultural appreciation* Rights and privileges* Diversity and tokenism* Diversity and skin colour* Inflation and the price of the goods and services measured by CPI* Criticism and cancel culture* Science and pseudoscience* Debt and productivity* Clean energy and environmental sustainability* Climate change and environmentalism* Money and credit* Deposit and loan* Investment and spending* Skin colour and culture* Islam and terrorism* Fluctuations in the weather and man-made climate change* Price and value* Diversity quotas and equal opportunities* Morality and obedience* Aspergers and classic autism* Equity and equality of outcome* Diversity and conformism* Social justice and left-wing activism* Morality and leftist/progressive ideology* The NHS and quality healthcare for all* Income and wealth* Slavery and the Transatlantic Slave Trade* Anarchy and chaos* Conservatism and right-wing ideology* Western representative democracy and true democracy* Two political parties and choice* Abortion and euthanasia* Wokism and caring about people* Beauty and truth (an ancient conflation)* The state and God* Conservatism and the Conservative Party* Classical Liberalism and the Liberal Party* Anything I don’t like and fascismIn fact, there are so many in politics, I think I should stop there. (Lots of other good ones have been suggested in the comments).These are some of the many examples of things that have been conflated, leading to misunderstanding and misinterpretation galore. It's important to understand the nuances and differences between these concepts if you are to have informed and productive conversations about them.I’m normally a proponent of the never-explain-as-conspiracy-that-which-can-be-explained-by-incompetence school of thought, but I am coming round to the view that a lot of this conflation is deliberate. I once saw a presentation by Professor Tim Evans which outlined the methods employed by Marxists to seize power. The goal of the Marxist, he argued, is to create chaos, then, from that chaos, secure power. Conflation leads to intellectual chaos.There are, however, also the stupid, the not-so-well informed and the confused, and plenty of them, who know no better. Please become a subscriber to the Flying Frisby and help this Substack get better.  This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

It’s my pleasure this week to once again interview Paul Kingsnorth, author of many books and the excellent Substack, the Abbey of Misrule.This is thought-provoking interview in which we discuss how we would like society to be designed: the best systems of rule, our philosophical journeys to small and local government, radical localisation, the failures of modern politics and globalisation, the destruction of the environment and local culture, and old school conservatism. I love talking to Paul.Please like and share if you enjoy this interview.If you want to see what we look like, the video version of this interview is here:Here’s Paul’s excellent Substack: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

I went to a mining conference on Monday - the Mining Journal Select London. As well as being on a panel, I wanted to catch up with the management of a couple of companies I hold shares in and get a feel for the state of the industry.Mining is cyclical. If there’s a shortage of some metal or natural resource, the price of that resource will go up. Rising prices encourage people to start looking for more said resource, investing in it and mining it. Suddenly there’s a mining boom.This eventually leads to an increased quantity of whatever the resource in question is, and the price comes back down again. The price of mining companies comes back too. Investment goes away. Suddenly we have a mining bust.In today’s fiat world of wild price swings, boom seems to turn to bust with increasing rapidity and violence. We are definitely not in the boom phase of the cycle.“Look at the room,” an investor came up to me and said after the panel I was speaking on. “It’s empty. It’s a classic bottom-of-the-market sign.”I can’t help thinking he may have a point. But I also want him to be right, as my own portfolio is so exposed to mining. An analogue industry in a digital worldIn our 21st-century world of billionaires, leverage, booming tech stocks and cryptocurrencies doubling overnight, value is digital and digital is quickly scalable. Ten grand can be enough to be trading portfolios in the hundreds of thousands. Write a bit of code, upload it to the app store and it can be downloaded billions of times. Upload a funny video, watch it go viral and find yourself with a million followers. And then there is old analogue mining. Getting to some remote and unexplored part of the globe. Sampling a bit of rock. Getting a licence. Sticking a drill into the rock. Hopefully, finding something. Sticking a few more drill bits in. Hopefully finding something more. Getting what you have evaluated. Persuading investors that what you have is meaningful. Getting more permits. Drilling more, evaluating more, persuading investors more and on and on for 20 years until you eventually complete the mine construction and start producing. It takes an average of 16 years to take a mine from discovery to production, more if you factor in prior exploration. 16 years before the company is profitable. Who’s got 16 years in today’s fast-paced world? 16 years is a lot of time for something to go wrong. There could be a change of government, a change of local attitude to mining, a change in underlying commodity price or a change in the investment landscape to name just a few of the risks. Mining is slow. Mining has not seen the breathtaking improvements in technology that other industries have seen. Yes, there are massive trucks, and huge machines, but the basic principles, extract metal from rock, are not far off what they were in the Bronze Age. And yet mining is essential. We could not enjoy the world we enjoy without mining. The picture below is of a cabinet at the Camborne school of mines that shows the 70 different elements we need to make a typical smartphone: copper, silver, gold, tin, indium, tantalum, silicon, not to mention the gadolinium, europium and dysprosium.These elements cannot be digitally created. Midjourney serves no purpose here.Should investors ignore mining stocks? At present, retail investors shun mining. So do institutions. Who can blame them? Never mind the ESG deterrent, the sector is down around a third or more on this time last year. The small-caps by much more. It takes time, I was constantly told yesterday, but investors don’t like looking at stocks in their portfolio that are down 30 or 50% from where they were last year. They don’t have 16 years.At the conference, there was some dissatisfaction that retail investors are no longer interested in mining, but can you blame them?Culture is a factor too. Most mining investment comes from people within the industry who understand the sector. Here in the UK, mining is no longer part of our culture as it once was. People like to invest in things they understand. Mining requires so much capital, it needs promoters. It needs the guy with the suspiciously white teeth telling you that this stock is going to the moon and that you are going to be a millionaire. Without the promotion, without the blue sky, it can’t raise the capital it needs. The problem is that a lot of promoters are scoundrels. Investors get ripped off. What did Mark Twain say about a mine being a hole in the ground with a liar standing next to it?But even without the scoundrels, capital gets destroyed. Sometimes unscrupulous governments in far-flung parts of the world seize control of profitable mines. Sometimes unprincipled governments bow to environmental lobbies and remove their licences. Most of the time the regulator is Mother Nature. The mine is simply uneconomic. There is not enough metal in the ground to justify mining it at current prices. Metals prices need to be twice as high or more before this mine is viable. Just one in a thousand exploration properties make it to production. Think of the capital destruction of those other 999 properties. Few prudent money managers invest with those odds. Even the mine that makes it is, 90% of the time, comes in late and over-budget. In this fast-paced modern world, no wonder the industry is on its knees. High commodity prices will drive more spending They say the cure for high prices is high prices. You could say the same about low prices. Mining needs higher metal pricesHaving to tighten their belts, the conduct of those in the industry is much better than it used to be. Execs are staying at the Travelodge, not the Savoy. The numbers being presented are better. Companies are having to work harder, there is more competition for capital - this has all contributed to improvements in standards, as is often the way in bear markets.I’m slightly obsessed at the moment with AI and the economic boom that is coming as a result of the improvements to productivity it is enabling. I was delighted to meet two different people who are looking at ways to employ AI in this most analogue of industries. Anyone who has ever been to a core shack will tell you, there is a lot of data in mining. Miles upon miles of drill core stored in shacks, with the rock contents recorded and analysed. Surely AI will have a role to play in analysing all that data, comparing it to the data of existing producing mines, as well as failed, non-producing discoveries. One of the chaps I spoke to said he thought his AI might be able to get to a point where the success rate gets from one in a thousand to one in three. Then again, he did have very shiny teeth. We need mining. We will always need it. Our failure to invest in it is going to come back and bite us very hard. Meanwhile, we soldier on and try to find the best projects, with the best management, with the highest probability of success. We also need patience. Interested in buying gold? Then visit The Pure Gold Company, whether you are taking delivery or storing online. Premiums are low, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, US, Canada and Europe, or you can store your gold with them. I have affiliation deals with them.Please consider becoming a subscriber.An earlier version of this article first appeared at Moneyweek This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

In your time bestriding the narrow world like a Colossus, you might have heard the term, “bearer asset” or “bearer instrument”.That would be an asset that you take physical possession of - cash or bullion, for example - an asset that is effectively owned by whoever has possession of it, that can be transferred from one person to another by just handing it over.The ownership of the asset is not registered with a central authority, so that makes it vulnerable to theft or loss, but it also means the asset is nobody else’s liability. Unlike money in the bank or a government bond, it carries no promise from a third party. The value of the asset is thus not dependent on the creditworthiness of any issuer or guarantor, but rather on the inherent value of the asset itself.So, in today’s interlinked financial world, a bearer asset becomes an asset outside the system.Like Tottenham Hotspur, bearer assets have their strengths and their weaknesses. Their strength is that they are nobody else’s liability. Their weakness is that their liability is yours. The two main bearer assets in today’s financial marketplace are gold and bitcoin. Bitcoin rallies as investors seek safety Bitcoin is not a physical asset of course. But the technological genius behind it means that it is a “digital bearer asset”. No such thing previously existed. With bank runs, bail-outs and another banking crisis now upon us, both gold and bitcoin have suddenly fetched a bid. No surprise: they both are means to store value outside of the system. You don’t have to rely on third parties. I thought, given everything, we should check in on both today.Here’s bitcoin, which, at $28,000, has broken out to 9-month highsIs that a bullish, inverted head-and-shoulders pattern I see before me? I think so. On that basis, what would the target be? The distance from the top of the head (around $15,000)  to the shoulder line at c.$25,000 is $10,000 - so you would have a target of around $35,000, perhaps a little higher.Some are even calling out for hyperbitcoinisation: a hypothetical scenario in which the widespread adoption of bitcoin occurs so rapidly that its price rises dramatically and it becomes the dominant form of money in use. In this scenario, bitcoin would be widely accepted by merchants and individuals alike. The term "hyper" refers to the extreme and rapid level of adoption. In a way, it is an inversion of hyperinflation. The fiat system would remain, it wouldn’t necessarily collapse, it would just be overtaken and superseded by bitcoin.There are many who believe hyperbitcoinisation is both inevitable and desirable. Bitcoin is better money than fiat. The traditional banking model is dysfunctional and reliant on constant bailouts. One such advocate is billionaire Balaji Srinivasan, who has grown so concerned at the goings-on in US banking, he has made a million-dollar bet that bitcoin will hit $1 million by June 17.The odds are against him. Some are suggesting he is just doing it for the attention. But to be fair to Balaji, he has a good track record spotting trends. I’m a bitcoin bull, but maybe I lack ambition. I can see it getting to $35,000 or $40,000 by June. I’m not so sure about $1 million. But hey, I’ll take $1 million dollar bitcoin if it’s offered. I’ve heard this kind of prediction before. You used to hear them all the time about silver. I’m not holding my breath.My rather drab observation is that, after a miserable 2022, tech has suddenly caught a bid. Even Meta’s going up. Bond yields have fallen with the banking panic, and suddenly growth stocks look attractive again. Sorry to be so prosaic and unsensationalist. Meanwhile, that other bearer asset, gold has also found a bid, and with it silver and platinum. Gold this week has been flirting with $2,000.The gold price surged after bank collapse My buddy Josh Saul at the Pure Gold Company reports to me that, with the panic at Silicon Valley Bank, his company saw a 385% increase in new enquiries last weekend and a 274% increase in investors purchasing physical gold bars and coins last Monday, compared to its normal daily average. “One client said they are moving £16 million out of their current bank provider owing to fears of instability”, he says.Volatility in the stock market isn’t helping either. “This year, we have also seen a 712% increase in people removing exposure to equities and cash in their pensions and SIPPs in order to purchase physical gold bullion in the same vehicle”. My other buddy Ross Norman reports that visitors to his site Metals Daily have risen 763% in a month.Gold is now at all-time highs in almost all currencies, except the US dollar. What do new highs normally lead to?In the short term, gold , breathing down the neck of $2,000, is a little overbought by most sentiment readings. The miners have been quite flat in comparison, which is not a good sign. That suggests the spike is temporary.But longer term I think it goes higher. I have long argued that everybody should have exposure to both gold and bitcoin in their portfolio, and it is crises like this one that demonstrate why.Few people realise that by keeping your money in a bank, you are lending the bank money. The difference between money and credit has become conflated, along with many other things in this mad world. Even Switzerland no longer looks safe. All the same arguments we heard in 2008 are coming back. At the heart of them lie fundamental questions as to the nature of money and banking. Fractional reserve banking, and even full reserve banking, became sujets du jour. The words fiat money entered the lexicon.In 2008 there was a chance to address and put right the fundamental flaws in the system. It was not taken. Bail-outs brushed the problems under the carpet, and left them for another day. The free market meanwhile came out with an alternative, bitcoin. It is now a trillion-dollar economy, and there are no bailouts. With each collapse - there have been plenty and there will be plenty more - the system gets stronger.But with traditional banking, however, the more you bail out the system, the more precarious it becomes. You can’t take the risk out of a market. Without risk, you have no market. With risk comes responsibility. Don’t blame the players. It’s the game that’s at fault. If you are interested in buying bitcoin, my guide is here:My current recommended bullion dealer in the UK is The Pure Gold Company, whether you are taking delivery or storing online. Premiums are low, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, US, Canada and Europe, or you can store your gold with them. I have affiliation deals with them.An earlier version of this article first appeared at Moneyweek This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

With the latest developments in AI, ChatGPT, Midjourney et al, we are experiencing something that, in terms of impact, will prove as big as the internet was in the late 1990s, if not bigger. Following on from my chat with Andy last week, which has had really good feedback from those watched/ listened (some haven’t had time yet), we have another really interesting conversation for you today about the implications of the amazing developments that are happening in the world of tech, this time with Danny Richman. It is only for paid subscribers. I will make it available to one and all in due course, when I will also release the podcast version for those who prefer to listen.Danny is a seasoned tech professional with 38+ years of experience helping organizations like BBC, Vodafone, and Salesforce streamline operations and improve online visibility. He's now focused on practical AI applications in business, education, and non-profit sectors. Danny volunteers for the Prince's Trust, supporting disadvantaged youth to start their own business. Follow Danny on Twitter.Going forward, I am looking to make more of these videos - please let me know what you think in the comments, or by liking and sharing (assuming you like!).If you want to watch or listen to my chat with Andy, it is here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Once upon a time, the business model of war was straightforward. You attacked some neighbouring realm, overpowered it, then plundered and taxed the conquered people. The Vikings were great pioneers of the model, as was Ancient Rome: it worked for as long as the empire kept expanding and Rome kept winning wars. When the expansion stopped, Rome had to replace the plunder with some other form of income. That’s when the currency debasement started.Often, but not always, the conquerors built infrastructure - buildings, roads or train lines (in the case of the British) - they stabilised the currency and introduced functioning bureaucracies, leading to the common argument that the conquerors actually improved things, which in many ways they did.The business model didn’t always function well, especially if the fight was ideological or, more importantly, if you lost. Europe “came second” in the Crusades and the grand part of the bill fell to the lowly European tax-payer. The various tithes of Henry II, Richard I and John, for example - with the Saladin tithe being the most famous - have gone down in history as some of the most punitive taxes ever imposed. There were even cowardice taxes, “scutage”, for those who didn’t want to go to war. On the other hand, the Catholic Church and the papacy, which, broadly speaking, initiated the expeditions, made extremely good by the whole affair: the church experienced an enormous increase in wealth and power, the papacy especially.Something changed with the great wars of the twentieth century. The Nazis may have vigorously pursued the traditional business model of war - to overpower, plunder and then tax. But the Allies emerged victorious and Britain, in particular, did not enjoy the spoils of victory that were enjoyed after the wars of previous centuries. There was little plunder, loot and taxation. Instead, the cost of the war fell on the British citizen. Taxation in 1947 was three times as high as it was in 1938. The cost of living doubled between 1938 and 1951 - put another way, the pound lost 50% of its purchasing power. The US supplied Britain with all sorts of essentials during the war and then after the war provided all sorts of credit. But it would not accept pounds as repayment, instead demanding gold or dollars. It took Britain two generations - 60 years - to settle the debt. Germany, on the other hand, had its debt written off in 1953. The British were not rewarded for their sacrifice.Today, the US’s enormous military-industrial complex has had its coffers tremendously enriched by its various wars in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere, and through America’s role as world policeman. From defence contractors such as Lockheed Martin and Boeing to oil giants, such as Halliburton, which benefitted from lucrative contracts gained in the aftermath, billions have been made. But who actually foots the bill?Broadly speaking, there hasn’t been the “traditional” plunder and taxation of the newly conquered territories in the wars that the US nominally won, and it lost quite a few others. Some of the cost has been covered by the “exorbitant privilege” of the US dollar and the ability the US has to print and loan. But probably the largest portion of the cost of war falls on the US citizen, paid for in taxes. Roughly 12% of total US government spending (21% of federal spending) - so roughly 12% of everything an American pays in tax - will go on what the US disingenuously calls defence (I don’t recall any nation actually invading the US). That same citizen will be the one hit to get hit if/when those debt chickens come home to roost.With the enrichment of the military-industrial complex, and the worship of many of those who operate in it, there are many parallels between today’s US war business model and that of the Crusades. Some large organisations are enriched and empowered by it, others pay.You might say the current model is unsustainable, which would be true. But that doesn’t mean it can’t go on for a long time. The Crusades went on for two hundred years.And what about the current war in Ukraine? At first glance, I suggest Russia was hoping for a traditional plunder-and-tax affair with its invasion. But Ukraine has since attracted vast support, the original source of which is the western tax-payer. I guess we have a blend of the two models.Thank you for reading The Flying Frisby. This post is public - please like and share.West End gig alert! This May, wearing my comedy hat, I’ll be coming back to Crazy Coqs in Brasserie Zedel for another night of “curious comedy songs”. That’s this May 7th. Please come if you’re in town. They are super nights.AI and the FutureI recorded this 90-minute interview about AI the other day with Andy - super interesting - and it’s now available to free subscribers:GoldInterested in protecting your wealth in these extraordinary times? Then be sure to own some gold bullion. My current recommended bullion dealer is The Pure Gold Company, whether you are taking delivery or storing online. Premiums are low, quality of service is high. You can deal with a human being. I have an affiliation deals with them. The Flying Frisby is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Jonathan Johnson, from recruitment company, Auxato, got in touch and asked me to write a piece for him, explaining how it is I got from being stand-up comic and voice actor to a renowned (his words) longstanding, financial writer for Money Week. I thought readers would like it and he kindly gave me permission to republish it here. The questions are Jonathan’s.Stand-up comedy – what life skills did it teach you?Stand-up comedy teaches you lots of things. How to stand on stage in front of a bunch of strangers. How to present yourself. How to entertain people. How to cope with pressure. How to deal with difficult situations and difficult people. How to think on your feet. Communication. Clarity.These are all really useful life skills that you might call upon in any number of other situations. Everyone should go and be a stand-up for a bit. But there is a lot more to being a stand-up than what you see on stage. Behind the scenes, every comic is running a small business. Every day you are trying to get gigs. You’re sending out emails, making phone calls, posting on social media, all with the aim of pushing your brand, getting noticed and getting better work. You’re running a diary. You’re invoicing for the gigs you have done. You’re chasing money from slow payers, while trying to extract money from the unsavoury promoters who are trying to wriggle out of paying you at all.You are travelling up and down the country four, five, sometimes seven nights a week to places you have probably only ever heard of, meeting all sorts of different people. As a result comics often know the country as well as anyone - all the while trying to keep costs down so that you can exit the gig at a profit. On top of all of that, but most fundamental of all, you have got to write an act that people find funny. You learn so many skills doing comedy. Even if you are not destined for stardom, which most of us aren’t, the discipline still equips you for life. You just need to look at the many people who started out as comedians who have since gone on to achieve huge success in other fields, from Joe Rogan to Volodymyr Zelensky, to know there must be something in it.Yet, if you’re a potential employer looking at someone’s CV and you see the word comedian, I bet that makes you less likely, rather than more likely, to call them in for an interview.In fact, most comedians who decide they’ve done it for long enough and now want to try something else, find it near impossible to find employment because of the fact they have comedian on their CV. The only option for most is to set up another business. Please tell your friends on Twitter, Linked and Facebook about this really interesting article.What a random hotchpotch of a career you have. How did it happen?I’m now 53. The longest I’ve ever lasted in a “proper” job is three months. This was back in 1992, when I was 23. I used to get up every morning, get the tube into Leicester Square and then do 10am to 6.30pm in an office. I hated it. It was not that bad a job either, but I hated being stuck in an office all day with no fresh air and not owning my own time.That’s not to say I’m not hard-working. I’m extremely hard-working. You just need to look at my output to see that. I would spend the next 15 years working occasionally as an actor, regularly as a voiceover (for some reason I always got more voiceover work than acting) and then, from 1997, as a comedian. All the while, I was trying to get stuff published - I wrote two novels and a million articles - but never with any success. I think I got one article in the Big Issue.But by 2006, I had made a bit of money, some in property (by accident) and some from voiceovers: I had been, at various points, the voice of such eminent products as First Direct, Nintendo 64 and the National Lottery. My dad had made a bit of money, too. Between us, we were trying to figure out how to turn our bit of money into a lot of money; because we were trying to raise five million quid to bring Kisses on a Postcard into the West End. From what I was reading at the time, commodities and gold, especially, seemed to be the place to invest, particularly with all the growth that was taking place in China. There were all sorts of people talking about it. But how to meet them and talk to them, without having to pay them? A podcast …What gave you the inspiration for the podcast interviews?I always knew I’d be a good presenter, even though I’d never actually done it. I was good at hosting comedy clubs and other such stuff. I approached a mining PR company called Commodity Watch and suggested we start a podcast. They didn’t really understand what I was talking about, so I did it anyway and began interviewing all these various people I’d heard on the internet talking so wisely about stuff.My very first interview was with the billionaire, Jim Rogers, who had run the Quantum Fund with George Soros. My next two were with noted silver analyst, David Morgan, and the gold expert, James Turk. I quickly learnt that you could secure interviews with people “above your station” quite easily, if they have something to promote, such as a book. A lot of the time people are happy to help out, even if they don’t have something to promote. To my surprise, there were far fewer walled gardens in the worlds of investment and commodities than in comedy and TV. People were much more open.Subscribe to The Flying Frisby.What brought about the job at Moneyweek?One of the people I interviewed was Merryn Somerset Webb who, at the time, was editor at Money Week. “We need people like you to come and write for us,” she said. “Come into the office next week and meet Toby, the MD.”So I did. Here I am, 17 years later and I am still writing the same weekly column, a column that has been popular and, in terms of longevity at least, successful. I’ve since published three books with a fourth on the way. I’ve written several documentaries, one of which was a huge internet sensation (even if I was never properly credited) and more besides. I think it’s fair to say that partnership with Moneyweek has worked - for them and me. But if I had sent my CV in to Merryn, all she would have seen was stand-up comedian, voiceover artist, occasional actor, Johnny-come-lately podcast host and unpublished novelist. I don’t think she would for a second have gone, “I need to get this bloke writing for us.” Pretty much any employer would have looked at my CV and passed it by.I now have this ridiculously random hotchpotch career that I can’t begin to explain. I’m a financial writer, comedian, singer-songwriter, comedy music video maker, TV presenter and voiceover artist. A very nice chap who works in internet marketing and likes my output - but despairs at its lack of clarity - with whom I correspond frequently, put this graphic together to try and explain what I do.What can we learn from that episode with Merryn?Two things. One, I don’t believe there is any substitute for face-to-face meetings. Meeting someone in the flesh inspires trust in a way that not a million emails can. (That, by the way, is, I think, why I never had stuff published. I just sent it in. I’m not even sure it got read. It’s much easier to ignore a letter or an email than someone in person).Often it works in reverse too. You really admire someone online for whatever it is they’ve written or said, but then you meet them in person and realise this is not the type of person you should be listening too.Second, when you meet someone through the medium of an interview for a podcast, rather than just a meeting, it’s like a heightened encounter. You get through so much more in an hour than you otherwise would. Get to know anyone who hosts a regular podcast and you will see they are total mavens. How many people do Joe Rogan, Konstantin Kisin or Steven Bartlett know as a result of their podcasts? How powerful are their networks? They are super connected - and trusted. Any introductions they make will carry weight.As it turns out, stand-up comedy was the ideal training ground for being a financial writer. In comedy, if the audience doesn’t understand you, they don’t laugh. If they don’t laugh, you die. Thus does the comedian quickly learn the vital discipline of clarity. You also learn that you have to entertain people if you want to keep their attention.No such discipline exists in the world of financial journalism. Obfuscation is everywhere. It almost pays to be obfuscatory because then you can say, “Oh I didn’t mean that, I meant this.” Some of the broadsheet journalists - guys who regularly win Finance Journalist of the Year or whatever - are as dull as ditch water and about as clear. Half the time, you have no idea what it is they are droning on about. I barely make it past the first paragraph.But do you know what? They probably got the job because their CV was right. Thank you for reading The Flying Frisby. Please like and share this post if you enjoyed it. .Other stuff:West Eng gig alert! This May, wearing my comedy hat, I’ll be coming back to Crazy Coqs in Brasserie Zedel for another night of “curious comedy songs”. That’s this May 7th. Please come if you’re in town. They are super nights.AI and the FutureI recorded this 90-minute interview about AI the other day with Andy - super interesting - and it’s now available to free subscribers:GoldInterested in protecting your wealth in these extraordinary times? Then be sure to own some gold bullion. My current recommended bullion dealer is The Pure Gold Company, whether you are taking delivery or storing online. Premiums are low, quality of service is high. You can deal with a human being. I have an affiliation deals with them.Here is some more info about Auxato: At Auxato, we don’t just rely on your CV to get to know you. A key aspect of our approach to recruitment for our clients and candidates is the importance of building a long term relationship, learning about those skills that don’t make it onto a CV. Want to experience a different recruitment way? Get in touch with us today and start your journey. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

A 90 minute interview about AI, the latest developments and the implications for our future with Andy. Andy is an experienced technical architect and lifelong technologist, coder and hacker.He designs systems that span security, finance, automation, IoT and proptech - and devotes a lot of his time to thinking about how technology will continue to transform our world. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe