The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

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This post in video form This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Good Sunday morning to you,Last week’s thought piece on the inexorable rise of the Far Right has become my most read Substack ever. Check it out, if you haven’t already.Today we continue on a similar theme.Enjoy!I’m currently working on a new book about gold, and, as gold often leads to war - or is it the other way round? - I’ve found myself reading rather a lot about conquerors and conquest. There are certain things all conquerors do, from invade to plunder to strip the conquered of their wealth, power, history and identity. What is so bizarre about today in Britain and Western Europe is that we are doing all these things to ourselves, voluntarily. Let me explain.As the armies of Alexander the Great marched east, overpowering all who stood in their way to form probably the first great empire the world had ever known and, in terms of land mass, one of the biggest (even to this day), the annihilation of the cultural identities of those they conquered soon followed. Locals were raped, pillaged, subjugated and enslaved. Coinage was a far more important tool of propaganda then than it is now, and Alexander had his armies confiscate gold and silver bullion everywhere they went; melt it down and then re-struck with Greek gods: Athena, goddess of wisdom and war; Nike, goddess of Victory; Zeus, god of power; and Heracles, god of strength, portrayed in the likeness of Alexander himself (at this point rulers had not yet started depicting their own heads). Conquered people quite literally had their own history and legend struck off. Alexander’s coins meanwhile were standardised throughtout his empire.As well as “Romanizing” the Celts - imposing Roman language, law, custom and governance on them - the Romans actively persecuted Celtic druids and destroyed their sacred groves. After William I conquered Britain, he took Anglo-Saxon land and gave it to his cronies; he imposed heavy taxes, strict laws and a new kind of feudal system; he replaced Anglo-Saxon English with Norman French in the courts and other centres of rule; he made ecclesiastical changes to better control the church. Any kind of rebellion met with swift and ruthless repression. Even if 1,000 years later, World War Two was not so different. Both the Nazis and the Japanese did everything in their power to strip those they conquered of their cultural identity.As well as possession of land and confiscation of wealth, the annihilation of local history, myth, hero and legend has always been a tool of the conqueror, part of the suppression and subjugation that follows invasion.  Even today the US, not technically an empire and forever trying to distance itself from anything imperial, nevertheless controls much of the globe and its prime resource, oil, with its military. It also exports its culture in such a domineering way that everyone else confuses their own history with that of the US. Like its military, American cultural narratives dominate the world, and distort everybody else’s. You would think, for example, that there had never been any slavery in history, except for that in America, in the 200 years from when the nation was formed to its outlawing in 1865, never mind that the British outlawed it 2 generations earlier. In fact, slavery has existed since before civilization began and still goes on today, with some 21 to 45 million trapped in it. In just seven years between 1938 and 1945, Germany enslaved a number equivalent to 400 years of Transatlantic Slave Trade. Include Japan and the number is double. American cultural narratives dominate.But here is what is so weird about what is happening today, under the rudderless leadership that is representative social democracy. In the past if you wanted to occupy the lands of other people, you would have to conquer them and take their lands by force. Today no such force is required. In fact, in Britain, Tony Blair actually legislated for it. So did Boris Johnson. Not only do we import our own invasion, we actually subsidise it. The £8 million a day spent housing illegal migrants in hotels is just one example of this.Once imported, we then start re-writing our own history or apologising for it; from positive discrimination in the media to invisible casting (for some but not all) we change of our stories to better represent these new people, both at the expense of the locals and opportunity for them and at the expense of truth.Here, for example, is what, according to the BBC, an English family in Roman Britain looked like. The latest nuts example from the BBC. The plague was clearly racist. With headlines like that, we satirists are being put out of a job.We all know about the anti-white middle-aged man narrative of recent years - pale, male and stale and all that - and the discrimination he now encounters when attempting to find work. We have all seen how the modern British family is represented in advertising: there is, it seems, no such thing as a non-multi-cultural family. The latest evolution is anti- young, blonde women. I know this because my partner works in advertising. There is now a widespread agenda not to have them in adverts.It is not even the immigrants to this country who are actively stripping us of our history and thus cultural identity (with a few exceptions). We are doing it to ourselves. I won't say voluntarily, because there are a lot of people who don't want this to happen, but such is the system of rule we have in place, with state-planned everything and the mindset of the state and most institutions dominated by one worldview, anyone who opposes may as well howl at the moon. A king would represent his people. He can make decisions quickly. His decisions, when they come, are acted upon. With representative democracy every decision is seemingly made with short-term headlines in mind, and rarely legacy. Decisions are often so contested the resulting legislation is watered down, or undermined by the Blob enacting it. Much of the time there is no decision at all because of the imagination required or the career risk of putting your head above the parapet. We are no longer one people with one common memory. We are a splodge, a mishmash of different cultural identities with, following the death of Christianity, no coherent ideology at its core beyond the new religions of climate change, multi-culturalism (whatever that means) and the NHS. It is a system bereft of thought for the future, bereft of strategy and long-term planning of any kind. The Victorians thought with legacy in mind. They built for the future. Today we do no such thing. We build with nothing in mind but short-term profit and the satisfaction of arbitrary building regulations. This will not change until we change our system of rule. The simplest, most bloodless way to do this is to change our systems of money and tax. You design a society the way you tax it. We must have independent money that no body has the power to create at no cost to itself. A non-bloodless alternative - in other words some kind of violent revolution - is not possible, because the state is armed and you, the citizen, are not. This mismatch dooms not just the UK but all of Western Europe. There will not be a revolution.What’s more, the state - the police and the media especially - does not treat people equally, something former Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, articulated to her cost. So I fear for anyone who does revolt.Those who come here do not have the same history as us. They do not have the same experience or collective memory, the same shared values, the same background or the same heritage. Theirs may be superior. Theirs may be inferior. It does not matter. The point is they do not feel the same allegiance or the same loyalties. They do not have the same values or the same goals, nor should we expect them to. They do not come here to be British. They come here to seek their fortune. That is quite natural. That is what people do. That does not mean we need to sacrifice ourselves.We are doing the conquerors’ job to ourselves.I sometimes think that China with its lofty ambitions of world dominance must look at the west, and, every time it is thinking of doing something, then think, “Actually no, we don’t need to do anything here. The west is destroying itself by itself”. Keir Starmer is doing the same looking at the Conservatives. The hundreds of thousands that are coming to the UK each year are doing the same looking at us. And we are powerless to do anything about it.It makes me sigh. And more.Watch this post in video form. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Good morning to you,Sunday’s piece on the inexorable rise of the far right and what to do about it has struck quite a few nerves. Check it out here, if you haven’t already.In today’s piece - considerably less political - which was first published in Moneyweek last Friday, we consider the sorry state of junior mining.Enjoy!DominicMining is infamously cyclical. But if ever there was an industry that blows desert hot and arctic cold, it is the subsector of small cap and early-stage companies known as junior miners. And boy has it been blowing cold.Many of the old hands are saying this is the worst bear market they have ever known. Worse than the 2013-15, when junior mining had a near-death experience, following the boom of the 2000s; worse than the bear market of the 1990s that came with colossally depressed metals prices at the end of a 20-year bear market and then the Bre-X scandal. Bre-X was one of the scams of the century. The Canadian gold mining company falsified gold samples from its mine in the middle of nowhere in Indonesia. The stock went up over 1,000-fold, from pennies to a C$6 billion valuation, before the fraud was exposed. Many were defrauded and the sector went into a prolonged depression, starving it of capital. The story became the basis for the film, Gold, starring Matthew McConaughey.Mining needs capital. It typically takes more than 15 years to take a mine from discovery to production. That’s 15 years of drilling, development and mine building with no chance profit in sight - unless you sell your deposit to someone else who then has to find the capital to take it into production. Millions, sometimes billions of dollars are needed. There is no immediate return, there is no guaranteed return. Why invest in something with such long time horizons when you can invest in some tech play that will have its app uploaded to the app store, potentially generating revenue in a matter of months? The gains are quicker and the aggro is lower.A lot can happen in those 15 years developing a mine. The metals markets can change, from supply shortages sending prices higher to glut sending prices lower. The money markets can change - interest rates can go up, for example. The political situation can change - politicians might seize strategic assets or impose windfall taxes, anti-mining lobby groups might block development, ESG narratives might take hold and prevent progress. It might be that after 10 years of drilling you discover the deposit is not quite as economic as you once hoped.The Cycle TurnsMining is hard. Many walk away. Then there’s no capital in the sector. With no capital, there’s no new metal supply coming to market. Then there’s a shortage of metal. Then, suddenly, we need to invest. Then capital floods the sector. It all starts to look rosy again. People make lots of money. Projects that will never make it to production start to get financed. Investors start to lose money. Rinse and repeat.With Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, commodities prices sky-rocketed. Supply chains were disrupted. Russian natural resources - and there are a lot of them - were now effectively off-line to the west. Nickel was probably the poster-child of the parabola. It suddenly spiked from around $17,000 to $100,000. The London Metals Exchange had never seen anything like it. Monday March 7th, 2022, was the date. That was the peak of the market. A bear market took hold. It has left the eyes of anyone invested in the sector bleeding. It doesn’t matter if the metal being mined is base or precious, strategic or industrial, junior mining is in the doghouse. Metals prices themselves might not be that disastrous - gold is close to $2,000/oz. Copper is not far off $8,500/tonne. Iron ore is at $130/tonne. I’ve seen worse. The senior producers - the likes of BHP Billiton or Glencore - are not faring that badly either. It’s the juniors - the development plays, the explorers - that have been slaughtered. There are exceptions. Uranium for example. We need uranium. Kazakhstan, the world’s largest producer, is struggling to get its uranium to market in the west. It has Russia to the north, China, which will not export, the east. Afghanistan and Iran to the south. Ukraine to the east. It’s geographically problematic. For that reason I like uranium and I think it’s going higher. But more than 90% of the mining companies in the uranium mining ETFs will not see any production for at least a decade, probably two. Taking a uranium mine to production is an even longer process than for most other metals. The ETFs might be going up, but the companies within them are drains of capital. The only compelling reason to invest in them is that the value of their resources are perceived to be increasing. I wouldn’t touch them myself. You are better off just owning the metal. Yellowcake (YCA.L), which stores it, is the way to play it.You could say the same for gold. Mining is supposed to give you leverage to the metal. That has not happened. This chart shows gold and the gold miners. When the chart is rising, miners are outperforming the metal. That has not happened in any sustained way for 20 years. The metal has been outperforming the miners. There are so many ways to own gold - ETFs, online bullion banks, futures, spreadbets, CFDs. Why take the individual company risk of a miner?Though, on the positive side, there are signs we are making a multi-year double bottom.If you are buying gold in these uncertain times, consider The Pure Gold Company, whether you are taking delivery or storing online. Premiums are low, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, US, Canada and Europe, or you can store your gold with them. I have an affiliation deal. More here.The opportunityThe result of all of this is that there are junior mining companies that are currently offering extraordinary value. I’m not saying that in two months’ time they won’t be offering even more value. That is to say they’ve got even cheaper. They might well have. But in any case here is a selection of four companies that I think have a good chance of doubling or tripling if and when this sector turns up.Two of these are Canada listed. That is where most juniors are based. So if you are foolhardy enough to want to buy any of these companies, you will need a broker that deals in Canadian companies. (I use II, Interactive Investor. They have their shortcomings, but they are cheap. If you sign up with them, say I referred you – frizzers@gmail.com – and you will get a year for free, while I gets a referral fee).Sierra Madre Gold and Silver (SM.V)Sierra Madre Gold and Silver (SM.V) is putting a past-producing silver mine, La Guitarra, in Mexico back into production. A fortnight ago it declared it has dramatically more silver than previously thought. Its mineral resource estimate went from 17 million ounces to 47.4 million ounces of silver in total (measured and indicated). This is a big development. The news came quicker than expected and better than expected. In mining it’s usually the reverse. The market barely shrugged. In a bull market this news would have doubled the stock.Sierra Madre will be producing silver next year. Permits are all in place. The mine reconstruction is months not years away from completion. It needs silver at around $13-14 to break even. The silver price is $23-24, so it makes around $10 profit on each ounce. (It will end up being lower than that. It always is. But you get the point). The mine’s previous production was 1 to 2 million ounces per year. Sierra could produce at higher rates than previously anticipated given the increased resource, but even at the previous rate Sierra will make US$10-20m per year, which, for a US$36m market cap company, is pretty compelling. Anticipated production rates are: 800,000oz in year one, 1.3m oz in year 2, then 1.6m, 1.75m and 2.2mn by year 5. There is also potential to increase the resource when it drills out the eastern part of the property.It is going to need to raise several million in the next few months, but CEO Alex Langer has that in hand. The next piece of the jigsaw is for him to demonstrate that to a doubting market. Then production hopefully by summer next year. Langer is buying. I have been buying too. Andrada Mining (ATM.L)Andrada Mining (ATM.L) is a play on both tin and lithium. It started out as a tin miner with lithium and tantalum bi-product, but lithium discoveries at its Uis project in Namibia have proved so compelling that the company re-branded itself as Andrada (after Brazilian mineralogist, Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva, who first discovered the lithium-bearing minerals, petalite and spodumene). The lithium story has been suffering a little of late as the ESG narrative has lost its way, but this could prove a globally significant resource. In any case, though not that many seem to realise, the destiny of Andrada’s lithium is in the ceramics industry not batteries. Management is young and ambitious. The company is producing tin at profit. We are waiting for news on a big catalyst for the stock, which is its partnership with a “strategic investor”. There are, we gather, numerous applicants but this is a conversation that has been going on a long time. It’s a 5p stock. It could easily be 10 or 15p if this deal comes off.Tharisa PLC (LSE.THS / JSE:THA)Another cheap London-listed mining play is Tharisa PLC (LSE.THS / JSE:THA), which now has a market cap below £200 million. It has suffered because platinum group metals (PGMs) have been so out of favour, though it also produces significant amounts of chrome, which it ships directly to China at considerable profit, from its eponymous Tharisa mine in South Africa. Tharisa alone supplies around 10% of China’s annual chrome demand, and chrome prices remain strong. The company has US$127 million in cash, and cash on hand of US$269 million including debt of US$142.2 million. Its dividend yield is currently around 9%. The money is to construct its Karo project in Zimbabwe, but weak PGM prices mean it has delayed development by a year, which is unfortunate. Even without Karo, which the market appears to have deemed a liability not an asset,  earnings per share for this year are roughly 32p, putting it on a PE of 2. Next year those earnings will be lower if the slide in PGM prices continues, so EPS will be lower. Then again PGM prices could rise. By the time Karo is producing you could be looking at a company with 400,000oz per annum of PGM and 2m tonnes of chrome production with decades of mine life. Huge. The market hates it. But it’s a bargain. If you are prepared to take on the risk of, one, South Africa and, two, mining.Moneta Gold (ME.TO)Oh, Moneta. Like an errant lover that promises heaven and delivers only heartache.Moneta is developing the largest undeveloped gold project in North America - the Tower Gold project - near Timmins, Ontario. Its mineral resource estimate (MRE) showed it has 12.8 million ounces. With a market cap of C$100m, that means its gold is currently priced at US$6/oz. It is not unheard of for companies in such mining friendly jurisdictions to trade at ten times that. For example, nearby Marathon Gold, which has around 4m oz, has just last week been taken out by Calibre Mining, for an equivalent of around $60/oz. But, with all the successful step-out and infill drilling that has taken place - it has put out something like 16 positive news releases in a row - that resource estimate is going to increase to, in my view, somewhere above 15m oz. But this is a huge project, a low-grade bulk deposit, and it needs bucketloads of capital to take it forwards. It also needs a new CEO. Chairman, Josef Vejvoda, is standing in as Interim CEO, while the search goes forward.The investment thesis is that this asset is simply too big to ignore and that a major will buy it. My concern is that this story is so well known now - why has a major not already gobbled it up? UPDATE: Right on cue we have this news of a merger. At first glance, this is not the big take out I was hoping for, but I’ll be back with more thoughts in the next day or two. Final note I’d love to tell you that a bull market is around the corner - cripes, it is overdue - and that these things are going to rocket. I can’t say that. I can say these things are cheap. But we are just going into North American tax selling season, when investors sell off their losers to take a tax loss. That is only going to add to the selling pressure. But the amazing bull market of 2016 began almost on the last day of tax-loss selling in 2015. Let's hope/pray for a repeat. Bull markets in junior mining tend to strike when you least expect them. Often they just happen with no apparent trigger. When they do happen, they happen fast and the moves can take your breath away. It’s often better to book your seat on the bus in advance.This article first appeared in Moneyweek Magazine.Buying gold?My recommended bullion dealer is The Pure Gold Company, whether you are taking delivery or storing online. Premiums are low, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, US, Canada and Europe, or you can store your gold with them. I have an affiliation deal. More here.How to get a SIPP, ISA and access to US or Canadian stocksI use II, Interactive Investor, for all of the above. They have their shortcomings, but they are cheap.If you sign up with them, say I referred you – frizzers@gmail.com – and you will get a year for free, while I gets a referral fee.If you have signed up with Interactive Investor in the past, please can you drop me a line at the above email and let me know.Disclaimer:I am not regulated by the FCA or any other body as a financial advisor, so anything you read above does not constitute regulated financial advice. It is an expression of opinion only. Please do your own due diligence and if in any doubt consult with a financial advisor. Markets go down as well as up. I do not know your personal financial circumstances, only you do, but never speculate with money you can’t afford to lose. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

I was never particularly interested in politics growing up. My father was an active social democrat, and I remember him jumping up and down with excitement when the SDP was formed, as David Owen, Roy Jenkins, and Shirley Williams broke away from the Labour Party. Even as a student, I never got interested beyond having a feeling that something wasn’t right. I felt I should be left-wing - that that was the right thing to be, but I never felt particularly engaged, only alienated. My vague understanding of political ideology was that Stalin and the Bolsheviks were far left and Hitler and the Nazis were far right - I didn’t realise Nazi meant national socialist back then - but that far left and far right were actually quite close in philosophy. Horseshoe theory, basically.It seemed actual far right was something that didn’t really exist in the UK. There was Oswald Mosley, but he was a bit of a laughing stock, and the National Front was tiny and ineffectual. In my mid-to-late 30s, as a result of studying gold, sound money and limited government, I discovered libertarianism. For the first time, here was a political philosophy that resonated with me. Government is inherently incompetent, inefficient and inequitable. The more it does, the worse things seem to get. The less it does, the better. “A multiplicity of individual decisions,” to quote John Cowperthwaite, former Governor of Hong Kong, “will produce a better and wiser result than a single decision by a Government or by a board with its inevitably limited knowledge of the myriad factors involved, and its inflexibility.”It always amazes me that somebody who advocates peace, free trade, less government, and, in the case of anarchism and anarcho-capitalism, no government at all, can be sectioned off with Nazis and labelled far right. Far right involves more government not less. To say far-right libertarian, as the Guardian did the other day to describe Argentina’s new president Javier Milei, is surely oxymoronic. Or maybe just plain moronic.At best it’s lazy and ignorant. At worst it’s the stuff of smearing and straw men, and wilfully dishonest. I used to think it’s the former. Now most of the time I realise it’s the latter.I am proud to have written the Libertarian National Anthem, which distils libertarian philosophy. The lyrics read:Arise libertarians above totalitariansOur guide is the mighty invisible hand.Reject state controllers, collectors, patrollers.Our choices are better than government plans.Taxation is a form of theft.Free markets and free trade are best.Free speech, free movement, free minds and free choice.Our actions are all voluntary,Not coerced or compulsory.War we abhor, socialism does not work.No debt or inflation, no stealth confiscation,No pigs in the trough at the gravy to drink,No state education to brainwash our nation,No experts dictate what to do, what to think.We scorn your fiat currency.Gold and bitcoin is our money.We own ourselves and we live and let live.We take responsibility.Life, love and liberty.Leave us alone, let a thousand flowers bloom.How is any of that far right?(If you want to watch the video of the above, which I heartily recommend, it is here). Buying gold in the uncertain times? My recommended bullion dealer is The Pure Gold Company, whether you are taking delivery or storing online. Premiums are low, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, US, Canada and Europe, or you can store your gold with them. I have an affiliation deal. More here.What actually is “far right’?Time for a Wikipedia definition: Historically, "far-right politics" has been used to describe the experiences of fascism, Nazism, and Falangism. That’s what I thought. But here’s the problem. They’ve done that change-the-definition thing:Contemporary definitions now include neo-fascism, neo-Nazism, the Third Position, the alt-right, racial supremacism and other ideologies or organizations that feature aspects of authoritarian, ultra-nationalist, chauvinist, xenophobic, theocratic, racist, homophobic, transphobic, or reactionary views. So, basically, now far right can be anything you don’t agree with. The name derives from the left–right political spectrum, with the "far right" considered further from center than the standard political right.Of course, the whole prism of left and right is false, in any case. Authoritarian v libertarian is much more telling, and the political compass is the best scale of all. But so overused is the term far right that the political compass is starting to look something like this.I have argued many times, starting with Life After the State, that healthcare, education and welfare would all be cheaper and of a higher standard, if the government stayed out of it. The internet is the most powerful learning tool ever created and it’s (almost) free. In the context of the times, the Friendly Societies of the 19th century were much better providers of care than the state equivalent we have today. But, somehow, if you argue that state care is no good, and that we should do away with it, people think you are advocating a society with no care at all, and therefore you are a fascist and far right. It’s not about wanting the best care for people though, with them, is it? It’s about control.This week we have seen the election of Javier Milei in Argentina, who is a self pronounced libertarian and anarcho capitalist. His rants denouncing the state are the stuff libertarian wet dreams are made of. I know the purists say he is a WEF stooge. Please. Real life will never as clean as idealists and theorists would like. It is muddy and impure. Take the win. Milei’s victory is a good for the libertarian cause, even if only for the PR it has given the word(s) anarcho capitalist. If his policies start to work, the potential for other countries to copy and for libertarianism to spread multiplies. Nevertheless, he is, as we learn from the Guardian, far right.Then on Thursday, an Algerian migrant in Ireland went on a stabbing spree at a school in Dublin, counting three small children and a woman among his victims. Many Irish people, like the rest of Europe, have had had their concerns about large-scale migration ignored by their leaders, who have set pro-immigration policies in place, for years. They’ve seen increased racial tension, increased crime, especially violent crime and rape, criminals released from prison early due to overcrowding, unaffordable housing get even more unaffordable, while schools, healthcare, transport infrastructure all struggle to cope with the increased numbers. But the stabbing made something snap and Dublin saw the biggest riots it has seen in living memory.Then came the reporting. This was the Telegraph, who should know better.Who committed the knife attack? Was that not violent? Or did it just happen? You’re far right if you are angry kids are being stabbed? The Irish leadership took no responsibility. This had nothing to do with their policies. Instead it too blamed the far right. It was hooligans “driven by far right ideology”, said the head of police. My breath was taken away by Taoiseach Leo Varadkar who as good ignored the crime but condemned the reaction as racist, having no place in multi-cultural Ireland, and pledged more censorship and clamping down of hate speech. “The problem isn’t that Ireland is being flooded with unassimilable, predatory aliens,” as John Carter so eloquently writes. “The problem isn’t that a little girl was stabbed by one of them. No, the problem is that the Irish have a problem with it.”The death of the mediaThe Far Right it seems is now everywhere. Brexit was a far right thing. The Dutch feeling threatened by mass Muslim immigration is far right thing. Argentina, deciding that enough is enough after umpteen hyperinflations, large scale corruption and Lord knows what else, is far right. Even being opposed to the inequitable tax that is ULEZ is far right, apparently - by that measure, Robin Hood, Gandhi, Boudicca, the Peasants Revolt, the American and French Revolutionaries - yes, they were all far right. Both Just Stop Oil and Black Lives Matter are self-proclaimed far left organisations. Why does the media almost never refer to them as far left?There hasn’t been a sudden rise or re-emergence of the Far Right. There has just been a rise in name-calling by a media that operates with dual standards. The name-calling can be justified because the definition of what is far right has been changed. And now people who are unhappy about a child being stabbed can be bracketed with Hitler. Do you remember the Nice terror attack in 2016? A Muslim terrorist drove a truck into a crowd of people celebrating Bastille day and killed 84 people. How did the media report that? This is the BBC headline:Killed by lorry! No mention of the driver, his background or political affiliation. Just the passive voice.But anyone who reacts to murderous conduct by an illegal immigrant is far right.When people are angry because George Floyd is killed and we get several months of looting, that’s fine. But when three Irish kids are stabbed and the Irish get hacked off about it, that’s far right. Such blatant double standards.Here we see “Oxford men”.We all know the media lies and has probably always lied. But it also has to be truthful at the level it operates. This switching between active and passive voice is, effectively, lying and sophistry. When the truth is so obviously ignored by a media too scared to call a shovel a shovel, people will inevitably lose trust in it.Thank God for alternative media, that’s all I can say, or should I say, alt right media. At least there’s a truth to it. Give me a citizen journalist at the heart of the action over a hack any day of the week.I don’t think anyone minds people applying to come to a country, working hard, contributing, being respectful and so on. But they do mind lots of fighting-age young men coming illegally, stabbing people, raping women, exhausting local resources (such as accommodation, education and healthcare) and then being called racist and far right for raising objections. If you keep calling people far right Nazis, they will eventually start behaving like far right Nazis, as my friend Low Status Opinions keeps saying to me. The longer moderate political parties ignore the concerns of those who elected them, then the more they will be driven to extremism. It’s all very well saying the mainstream media is dead. There’s no doubt that it is in decline, but it still has enormous influence. The quicker it dies, the better in my opinion - then some kind of genuine free market can return and replace the  monopolistic media we have endured for the last few decades. I say “free market” can return to the media - maybe I should say “far right markets”.When all is said and done, we are seeing a battle for control of the narrative and one side is losing. That’s when they start using smears like far right. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comGood morning to you from sunny California, where I am visiting my dear mother.If you missed them last week:* Check out my interview with Lyn Alden.* As well as the silver stock with a 47 million ounce surprise. * And, if you are thinking about buying gold in these uncertain times, be sure to speak to The Pure Gold Company.Today, though, it’s the stock market. We think it’s going up. Now could be the time to invest. Here’s why …The tricky month of October, the month of choice for the stock market crash, is now behind us. There was a wobble. A very wobbly wobble. But the blob held. The stage is now set for a juicy rally into year end.November to January is, historically, the best three month period of the year for the S&P500, the index of the largest 500 companies in America, while November to April is the best six month period. We are at the beginning of that run.If you bought the Dow Jones Industrial Average on November 1 every year since 1950 and sold it six months later on April 30, a ten grand stake would now be $1.2 million, give or take.  But if you did the reverse and bought the Dow on May 1st and sold it on October 31, you would barely be at breakeven. That is some difference, particularly when you add currency deprecation into the mix. One option gives you breakeven over 73 years, less inflation, the other option gives you $1.2 million. Don’t ask me to explain why this is. It might be some kind of self-perpetuating, herd mentality thing. It might just be that different people do different things at different times of the year. I swim more in summer, for example. (I know that sounds trite, but you take my point). But there is more. This is the third year of the four-year US Presidential Cycle. It might be because the powers that be are trying to get everything looking hunky dory in time for the next election. It might just be one of those things. But third years are very good years for stocks, the years in which the strongest gains come - one of the reasons I was arguing in January that this would be a good year for stocks. This year has been particularly good, especially in the Nasdaq - I gather it had one of its best first six months ever. In 2019, President Donald Trump’s third year, there was a 27% rally in the S&P500. Prior to that, from 1933 to 2015, the average gains have been 16%, compared to 6% for the other three years. That November-to-April run is even stronger in the third year of the US Presidential cycle.  We are at the most bullish time of year in the most bullish year. The portents are good. It may not feel that way after the October we have just had. October, is almost always the most volatile month. Octobers are often so horrible that nobody wants to buy. That in itself is almost reason to buy. “Buy when you don’t want to, sell when you don’t want to,” is not bad, as stock market adages go.Sentiment models are looking good. Last week’s AAII sentiment survey, which measures retail sentiment, showed 50% bears. Hedge fund sentiment is similarly contrarian bullish: long/short funds are the most defensively positioned in 11 years. Insider purchases are up and exceed insider sales. The bond markets have calmed down. Inflation, as they measure it, looks like it’s calming down in the US too. Finally we got a Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal. I’m not going to try and explain that technical signal here. Google is your friend. Just know that it is bullishWe heard a lot of talk about an impending stock market crash last month. I’m of the mind that if it was going to happen, it would already have happened. Last week saw an eye-watering reversal and short-covering rally. We can expect a bit of digestion over the next few days, before things get going again.So how to play all this?

An engaging conversation with financial expert Lyn Alden as we explore the past, present, and potential future of money through the lens of technology.Lyn's new book, Broken Money, challenges conventional wisdom about monetary systems, emphasizing the crucial role of technology in shaping the way we exchange value. From the significance of the printing press and the telegraph to the rise of Bitcoin, we discuss into the intricate relationship between technology and money; the impact of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and how Bitcoin fits into the financial landscape. A thought-provoking conversation about the evolving world of finance.Subscribe to this amazing publication. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

I went to the ARC conference yesterday - to give it its full name the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship. It is an organisation set up by Jordan Peterson, Paul Marshall, Philippa Stroud, Alan McKormick and others to “develop a better narrative in response to life’s most fundamental social, economic, philosophical and cultural questions”. I spent much of the day taking notes, and I thought I’d write them up here so that readers can enjoy a distilled version, without the rigours of having to travel to the depths of London SE and sitting through a lot of talking.“What’s it like?” Merryn Somerset Webb texted on her way in that morning. “A bit like a religious gathering,” I replied, (something Tim Stanley also observed in a barbed piece in the Telegraph). I’m quite happy with that, because I am one of the believers. I have to say the organisers have put together quite a roster of speakers, one massive oversight aside, which was not having me speak.Philippa Stroud and Jordan Petersen hosted the morning events, which began with recently removed US speaker of the house Kevin McCarthy. Peterson, who had made a brave choice of suit even by his standards - and, I say with a little concern, looked exhausted  - made the point that we each have a responsibility to do our own little bit, if we are to improve things.In this Noah’s Flood of podcasts through which we are currently living, I’m kind of done with conversations. So many people now just seem to be regurgitating the words of others. So few seem to say anything original or interesting. We are caught in this media merry-go-round in which everyone is just commenting on what everyone else has said and nobody actually seems to be creating anything. Moreover, I am kind of done with panels. Three guests, sitting on chairs, a host, who keeps opening it up the the audience, where the conversation then loses all direction. Give me strength. It’s always a good way to go into an event with low expectations because when reality exceeds expectation you end up happy. So it was here. (Read more on the secret of happiness). Laurence Fox, who is a buddy and with whom I hung out, was in a similarly jaded frame of mind. The right is great at identifying what the problem is, he said to me over coffee and a fag, but no good at doing anything about it. The problem, I suggested, is that many don’t actually know what to do, which is why so much talking goes on. Perhaps the answer lies in Peterson’s solution. We each have to do our own little bit in our own little worlds, doing whatever we do. That’s the nature of free markets and free everything: it starts with the individual and it is a bottom-up thing.The first panel was about narrative. That had former Aussie deputy PM John Anderson, who was excellent on the fact that in the Anglosphere, we have stopped telling our own story and, as a result, lost sight of who we are and what we stand for. This was a recurring theme throughout the day. Somali-Dutch activist, Ayaan Hersi, talking about Hamas and Islamic extremism, added that “their story is not your story and your story is not their story”, so it is never going to work. She may not have meant it, but that is actually quite a strong argument against multiculturalism. And I loved this line from US author Os Guiness: “freedom is not the power to do what you like. It is the power to do what you ought”I went into the break keen to do my own little bit and put the world right, and ran into my old boss from GB News, Angelos Frangopoulos, who was similarly invigorated. I had a good chat with him. I then ran into Jimmy Carr, of all people, who I know of old, and had a good chat with him too. I then met Holly Valance, who is a famous actress from Neighbours, if you didn’t know (I didn’t) and had a good chat with her about home education. So, never mind the roster of speakers, the calibre of audience was pretty good too.The next session was hosted by Fraser Nelson of the Spectator, another of the many UK media outlets which has forgone the opportunity to give me work. There was a talk by MP Miriam Cates about mental health and the decline of family. I agreed with pretty much every point she made, but don’t read your speeches, speak them, Mmiriam. They have more impact when you do.Next Nelson would interview a chap over videolink to the states, Jonathan Haidt, and my heart sank. Why have I come all this way to watch a live zoom call? Guess what? It was brilliant.It was about children and mobile phones. Moral of the story? Don’t let your kids anywhere near them. Mental health, depression, anxiety and suicide rates among young women  in the Anglosphere and Nordic countries are all all at all time highs. They are not so bad among religious conservatives, they are much higher in cultures where female independence is strong, especially left wing, secular liberals (who tend to be allowed on their phones more). It has rocketed since 2010 when we all got smartphones.  He talked about the importance of play amongst children, and how we have replaced a play-based childhood with a phone-based childhood. Kids see each other and socialise far less now than they used to. Kids don’t need connections. They don’t need retweets and likes. Even less do they need all the bullying and shaming that goes on. Tiktok messes with your mind and your ability to concentrate, but Instagram is the worst for women and mental health.Haidt’s solution was not to give kids a smartphone before the age of 14, give them flip phones. No social media before the age of 16. No phones in schools, not even in your backpacks otherwise kids will find a way to feed the addiction. Get back to play. The rise in teenage suicide is perhaps the biggest problem since we wiped out polio, cholera and mass disease.Tell your mates.So to the afternoon …In the afternoon, Paul Marshall gave a brilliant talk. For someone who is supposed to be shy and retiring, he was great - and he didn’t read his speech, or if he did it didn’t show. He was particularly good on one of my pet hates, crony capitalism. (I even wrote a song about it). He observed how we have benefited from capitalism and free markets, peppering his talk with great historical stories. He bemoaned the conflation of capitalism with monopolistic capitalism, crony capitalism and, what he called swamp capitalism, describing US politics as “continuity swamp”, and called for a politician with strength to stand up to vested interests. He didn’t say anything particularly new, but it was one of the best summaries of everything I had heard in a long time. We are both singing so loudly from the same song sheet, I felt he must have been studying my stuff (I doubt he has), though he didn’t mention the zero patients in all of this: our systems of money and tax.Then there was another video link with US presidential candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, on the campaign trail in Utah or somewhere I’ve never been to. He went down very well in the room too. Merryn Somerset Webb hosted a good panel on ESG investing. The S in ESG is totally subjective, said Derek Kreifels, while Terry Keeley called it the biggest misallocation of capital in history. The general takeaway is that ESG is done. The arguments have been lost, even the FT is now slagging it off. It is, I’d say, roughly where the Nazis were in 1943 after they failed to take Moscow and winter set in.Michael Shellenberger, not a man with whom I was previously familiar, was next and he came out with my line of the day. “Pull back the curtain and there is no Wizard of Oz, just Greta Thunberg with a really bad religion.”His main theme was debunking climate alarmism. He argued that carbon emissions are improving, sea levels are not an issue if the Netherlands is anything to go by. The reason northern countries are so wealthy is that the harsher conditions forced us to develop more. Deaths from climate disasters are down 90%, he said, against a population that is four times bigger. He is more worried about death from drugs. You can’t say much of this on the internet though because you get censored. Climate change is a religion. Nihilism leads to secular religions, and not very good ones. There are three new secular religions: they are climate, race and gender. Climate change is also a psychopathology, and most activists have some kind of personality disorder, often narcissism. Frequently they are just spoilt children.The answers lie in increased efficiencies. The fact that the amount of land required to make the same amount of food is decreasing is good: it means more land for nature. The fact that less material is required to do stuff (eg all the things you can do on your phone, a bluetooth speaker vs a stack stereo kit from the 1980s) is another example. Think of the woman who used to have to cook food using dung and wood. Gas has been liberating for her. The solutions lie in gas and nuclear. Not in solar, the panels for which are made by slave labour in concentration camps in China, nor in wind, the blades of which do not recycle or decompose. A panel next with Alex Epstein and Marian Tupy made similar points, and was great. Epstein’s argument was that so much of environmental philosophy is just anti-human. That’s the underlying problem. We ignore the human flourishing effects of fossil fuel to be anti-human. While Tupy pointed how much better we are producing resources and using them so that their prices fall. Eventually we will create elements through nuclear fission or mine them in outer space where they are plentiful. I liked Tupy. Humans create as well as destroy. Atoms may be finite, but knowledge is infinite, and the more knowledge you consume, the more you end up with. We need freedom and we need population. We need the freedom to explore, the think, to invent, to experiment. And it is so much better when the market, not the government, chooses the winners. In the final session of the day, historian Niall Ferguson spoke. He described how liberal democracy, which in the context of the world today and of history, is tiny, is now under threat, both from within - so many now dare not speak or explore issues because they are scared of the backlash - and from outside. Beware the alliance between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. I’d had enough talking by this point, so I left the auditorium, had a cup of tea and did some networking. I hope this summary was useful.In other news, I am working on a piece on S&P500, which could be set up for a good year end rally. I am also working on something to do with gold. It is finally catching a bid. New highs around the corner? Maybe. We are going to need them if juniors are to finally catch a bid.Please subscribe to this brilliant newsletter. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Good morning to you,We are talking Japanese currency today.First, in case you missed them last week, check out:The story of my pilgrimage got a big and positive response from readers. This piece on the true value of UK housing also got a big response.If you haven’t already, and if speculative silver mining stocks are of interest: watch this interview with Alex Langer of Sierra Madre Gold and Silver. And, finally, a big thank you to all who came to my gold lecture on Thursday. What a great night. A reminder that due to sell-outs, we have added some extra London dates - February 14th and 15th. You can get tickets here.Right, the yen. I can’t help thinking there are some real opportunities coming …The currency has been weak as hell for a long time. Against the US dollar it is at lows not seen since this century. We all know what a rotten currency the pound has been. It has lost a third of its purchasing power just since 2020. A third! Against the constant that is gold, it has lost 90% of its purchasing power since 1999.And yet against the yen, the pound is at seven-year highs, not far off the pre-2008-financial-crisis levels. In those days a pound got you two dollars, instead of the $1.21 it gets you today.In terms of trading volume, then yen is the third most important currency in the world, after the dollar and the euro, accounting for around 17% of global daily forex turnover. Given that is thought to be $7.5 trillion, we are talking about around $1.3 trillion of daily trading volume. No small beer.Why has the yen been so weak?The main reason is that, while other central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, have raised rates, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has not. It has ignored rising inflation (perhaps because Japan has had issues with deflation for so long). Indeed the BoJ has been creating digital money and buying extraordinary amounts of government bonds with it in order to cap rates. The BoJ now owns over half of Japanese national debt. My mind boggles when I read stuff like that. How can it be possible to print so much money and buy so much debt without apparent consequence? This is BoJ’s so-called yield curve control. I wish they’d print money and buy me a mansion. Or even just a nice car.Suppressed rates lead to the yen carry trade - borrowing yen at a cheap rate and holding other currencies that pay a better yield. But when the carry trade reverses, as in 2007-8, it tends to reverse very quickly.The yen, as a result, also tends to act as a safe haven currency: during times of panic, such as we saw in 2008, there is rapid flight to the yen in a rush to unwind the carry trade.Here is a very long term chart of dollar-yen going all the way back to 1987. (When the chart is rising, so is the US dollar).The dollar made its low - or the yen its high, depending on how you view things - in late 2011 and 2012. Since then the yen has halved. 50% declines for a major currency is kind of a big deal.Look at the speed at which that thing came down between 1990 and 1995, between 1998 and 1999, from 2007 to 2011 and in 2015-16. When that thing moves, it moves. (We’ll come to another yen currency pair that moves even faster in just a moment).Here’s the last three years zoomed in. Kind of very double toppy.I’m not going to pretend to be any kind of an expert on Japanese policy, plans or goals, but I ask, at a certain point, if the BoJ will step in to shore up the currency? Surely they must. Everything I read tells me they will. If so, at what point?The 150 level is one commonly cited number. 150 is where we are now. But I stress this is only rumour. A related question is: how long will so-called yield curve control go on for? Indeed, how long can it go on for?Again, I can’t pretend to know the answer. Little old me is struggling to get his head around the fact that it has even been able to go on at all, let alone this long.So to that yen currency pair that really moves. Ooof, take a look at this one. This is where I think the money is going to be made.The British pound and the Japanese yenHere’s a long term chart. (When the red line is rising, the pound is rising and the yen is falling. And vice versa).Again, during those periods of yen strength, this thing came down like a stone. Between 1990 and 1995 (especially 1992 - that was Black Wednesday in the UK). From 1998 to 2000. 2007-8 - Gosh! it really came down then. And then 2015-16. It also ties in with my 8-year cycle of the pound: it is even more apparent when viewed in yen.As so much of the British economy is built on finance, sterling tends to be strong when financials are strong. It sells off during market panics - which is when money flees to the yen. Thus the pound and then yen are inverted.Sterling has been weak against most currencies since the summer. Cable (pound-USD) has gone from $1.31 to $1.21. The 8-year-cycle in the pound seems to be playing out again. But against the yen it has hardly moved. It’s the same price it was in June-July.Here is pound-yen since Covid. Does this trend continue? Or is it exhausted?Most of the 2020 Covid trades - the boom in tech, in commodities, in bitcoin - have played out and unwound. But not the decline of the yen. It is still going strong. There is some catch up to be had.When does it end? That’s the question. There may still be some gas in the tank, but I’m starting to think sooner rather than later - if only because so few people are talking about it. I asked three different finance WhatsApp chat groups that I’m on if anyone had any decent yen material. Nobody came back with anything. Such things are often a good, contrarian sign. Nobody rings a bell at the top of the market, unfortunately. But this is one to watch.Forex trading is extremely difficult. There is so much that can go wrong, especially to do with risk management, position sizing and timing. I don’t recommend it unless you know what you are doing. But I feel there could be an opportunity here.Thank you for reading. Thank you for being a subscriber. Until next time …Disclaimer:I am not regulated by the FCA or any other body as a financial advisor, so anything you read above does not constitute regulated financial advice. It is an expression of opinion only. Please do your own due diligence and if in any doubt consult with a financial advisor. Markets go down as well as up. I do not know your personal financial circumstances, only you do, but never speculate with money you can’t afford to lose. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Before we get started today, if you haven’t already seen it, check out my interview with Alex Langer of Sierra Madre. There could be quite an opportunity setting up with this silver mining company.And if you haven’t read this piece on UK (and US) house prices yet, you might like it - it’s proved quite popular. Right. The Eighth Wonder of the World …How can you turn a tiny sum into a large one?Speculate in small caps is one way. The problem is you risk losing your shirt.There is another, safer path. All you need is time - lots of it - and some discipline.You will often hear it said that time in the market is more important than timing the market. There is a lot of wisdom to the adage, though, in defence of timing, get it right and you gain significant advantage. The underlying wisdom of the adage derives from the power of compounding, what Albert Einstein called the eighth wonder of the world. “He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t, pays it,” he is said to have said. (It is one of those attributed quotes, but it’s better coming from Einstein than anyone else, I suppose). If I offered you a million quid upfront, or a magical penny that doubles in value every day for 30 days, would you take the million quid? I imagine you would. You fool! A penny that doubles every day would be worth over five million on day thirty.But here’s the thing: it is the effect of compounding in the later stages that is breathtaking. The early stages are muted. Take that magical penny. On day 10, it’s only worth a fiver. By day 20 it’s north of five grand. But it’s in the last three or four days that the vast sums are made. Take a look at this table.Compounding works even for relatively low annual returns. To benefit from it you have to start as early as you possibly can, re-invest everything you make and, ideally, keep adding. But it enables you to turn small sums into large ones. Just ask Warren Buffet. This table shows the effects of compounding at different rates of return, but it assumes you don’t add to the initial pot. If you do that, the effects are more dramatic.Tell your kids about compounding, and get them saving and investing. They’ll thank you.To really benefit from compounding you also need to keep fees and taxes to a minimum. Thus the maximum gets re-invested. Avoid losses like the plague. Keep adding to the pot, and the compounding works even more in your favour. There is a really cool tool here at Monevator, which allows you to see the effects. An initial deposit of £5,000, with £2,000 added every year and a 7% rate of return becomes half a million in forty years and a million in 50.Invest just £2,150 every year at 7% and in fifty years you will have a million quid. But at the same rate over a fifteen year period to get to a million you would have to invest £33,800 - fifteen times as much.The table below, courtesy of Visual Capitalist, demonstrates the maths.The rule of 72There is also a useful predictive tool which can tell you how long it will take for your money to double, assuming you compound at a certain rate. It’s called the rule of 72.Further to some correspondence with reader K the other day, I thought I should tell you about it.Divide 72 by your annual rate of return and that will tell you the number of years it will take your portfolio to double.Put in mathematical terms it looks something like this: 72 ÷ by rate of interest/return = number of years.Let’s say you have a 5% annual rate of return. 72 divided by 5 is 14.4, so that’s how long it will take for your money to double: 14 years five months, give or take. At 10% you will double your money every seven years. (The rule of 72 does not take inflation into account).At the suppressed interest rates of the 2008 to 2021 period, it’s a very different story. Savings left in cash at 0.1% would take 720 years to double.Of course, if you lose money, in a given year, it’s a very different story. Compound purists avoid losses like the plague, as we all should, and, most of the time, steer clear of cyclical sectors that can be prone to prolonged bear markets - unless they feel they can time them. That’s why compounding works well in conjunction with a diversified portfolio. You can read more on portfolios here.Until next time … This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe