The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

“They will never see their gold again, just as they do not see their own ears.”Josef StalinGold’s strength is that its value exists in and of itself. It’s nobody else’s liability. Unlike money in the bank or a bond, it carries no promise from a third party, and its value is not dependent on the creditworthiness of any issuer or guarantor. Hand it to someone else and its value is transferred. It is a “bearer” asset, effectively owned by whoever has possession of it. For this reason gold has been the target of many a heist. Quickly resmelt it, and its provenance is very hard to prove.So there is one obvious problem with gold: that is keeping it safe. It’s all very well having a pot of gold, but if somebody comes along and takes it from you, as Alexander did from the Persians, or the Conquistadors from the Incas, then you’re left with nothing at all.When the Spanish Civil War broke out in 1936, the Soviet Union, under Joseph Stalin, supported the Spanish Republican government. The Nazis supported their opponents, the revolutionary fascist forces led by General Franco. At the time Spanish gold reserves, some 635 tonnes, were the fourth largest in the world.Much of that treasure had been accumulated during WWI, when Spain had stayed neutral. Selling stuff to the British seems to have been the really big earner: 70% of Spanish gold holdings were British sovereigns.With Franco just 20 miles from the capital, the Republicans were on the verge of defeat. Never mind the fascists, there were also rumours that Catalan separatists had hatched plans to take the gold from Madrid to Barcelona. All that gold was at risk.Finance minister, Juan Negrín, and Prime Minister, Francisco Largo Caballero, leant on President Azaña to sign a secret decree to move the gold - some 10,000 cases - to a place “which in his [Negrín’s] opinion offers the best security”. Azaña signed and the gold was moved, starting the next day, to Cartajena on the south coast, as far from Franco’s armies as possible. The Spanish soldiers who transported the cases thought they were lifting munitions. A fifth of it was then shipped to Marseille where it was traded for French francs, which the Republicans used to fund their side of the war. The rest, 510 tonnes, would be sent to Joseph Stalin in Moscow for safekeeping.Even if Bolshevik sympathisers, what were Negrín and Caballero thinking? The Russians had already demonstrated that they had no qualms about seizing other people’s gold. In 1916, the Romanian government sent its treasury of 91 tonnes of gold to Tsarist Russia for safekeeping, worried that it was vulnerable to the Central powers when Romania had just joined WWI on the side of the Entente. Shortly afterwards, during the Great October Revolution, communists, led by Lenin, seized power, sequestered the gold and refused to give it back. Though small amounts were returned in 1935, 1956, and 2008, “as a gesture of goodwill”, the large majority was retained. As you can imagine, it has been something of a sore spot in diplomatic relations between the two nations ever since.It seems Negrín and Caballero did not know the story. In any case, Caballero actually wrote to Stalin asking if he would “agree to the deposit of approximately 500 tonnes of gold.” Two days later, he got a reply from the Soviet leader, not previously known for his prompt responses. No surprise: Stalin would be “glad” to take the gold.Buying gold or silver to protect yourself in these ‘interesting’ times? The bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Alexander Orlov was the Russian agent in charge of transporting the booty. Negrín gave him fake documents to show he was an US official from the Bank of America, in case he should be stopped. Negrín, who, remember, was finance minister, had thought Bank of America was the US central bank. That would be the Federal Reserve. Russian agent Orlov didn’t realise either. It’s extraordinary.Four Russian ships came to Cartagena to collect the bounty, and the gold was loaded on. There was a discrepancy of 100 cases between Orlov and Spanish treasurer Mendez Aspe’s number: Aspe said 7,800 cases, Orlov 7,900. Orlov said nothing. He reported the discrepancy to his superiors, who told him, “Do not worry about figures. Everything will be counted anew in Moscow. Do not mention your figure to anybody.” Aspe didn’t even get a receipt off Orlov (who had been instructed not to give him one). “Don’t worry, my friend,” said Orlov, “it will be issued by the State Bank of the Soviet Union, when everything is checked and weighed.” We will never know whether Orlov miscounted or whether those 100 boxes went missing.It took them three nights to load the four ships. The Russians then left Cartagena for Odessa in the Black Sea, escorted by the Spanish as far as Italy. From Odessa it was loaded onto a freight train bound for Moscow. "If all the boxes of gold that we piled up on the wharfs of Odessa were to be placed here side by side,” said one of the officials. “They would completely cover up the Red Square".When the gold arrived in Moscow, Stalin celebrated with a banquet at the Kremlin. “They will never see their gold again”, he laughed. “Just as they do not see their own ears.”The Spanish eventually got their receipt: for 5,619 standard cases and 126 damaged. Some distance below both Aspe and Orlov’s figure. But three months later the Russians completed the audit, calculating that the shipments totalled 510 tonnes of gold coins and ingots, 90% pure, thus around 460 tonnes of pure gold. There were gold coins from across Europe and Latin America, especially those British sovereigns and Portuguese escudos, but also Spanish pesetas, French, Swiss and Belgian francs, German marks,, Russian rubles, Austrian schillings, Dutch guilders, and Mexican, Argentine and Chilean pesos. The numismatic value of the coins was higher than their gold content.The following year Spain met with a currency crisis. With exceptional chutzpah, even by the standards of politicians, Republicans blamed the inflation on the free market. Nothing to do with the absence of all that gold!Later, the Franco regime was happy to let the story of the "Moscow gold" stolen by Russia spread, as part of its anti-communist propaganda. And yet it appears sell orders from Negrín were actually carried out in 1937 and 1938, for which Spain received pounds, dollars and francs. Spain also received planes, tanks, machine guns, artillery, rifles, cartridges, food and fuel from Russia. The Soviets demanded some compensation for what they had sent during the war, but it’s believed that aside from various expenses, the Soviets did not abuse their position and defraud the Spanish. Ultimately then, most of the gold went, one way or another, on the cost of the civil war. Such is the way with war. It is expensive.And just a couple or three years later, as Nazi forces advanced through Europe, the farce of transporting gold would be repeated many times over, and across the continent.Stories like this fill the pages of The Secret History of Gold (although this one didn’t actually make the cut).The Secret History of Gold is available to pre-order at Amazon, Waterstones and all good bookshops. I hear the audiobook, read by me, is excellent. The book comes out on August 28. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comThe idea behind Dolce Far Niente was to create a portfolio of low-risk investments for today’s market conditions, that you can buy and, pretty much, forget about. You don’t have to keep checking prices every day. Hence “Dolce Far Niente” - “the sweetness of doing nothing.” No worries would be the Australian translation.Asset allocation is WAY more important than individual stock-picking. I could pick the best biotech company in the world, but if biotech is in a bear market, I almost needn’t bother. I’m better off out of the sector. But similarly, if a sector is in a full-on bull market, even pigs fly.The starting point for the portfolio, which we began on October 1, 2023, was as follows.* Gold: 15%* Bitcoin: 5%* Special situations: 10% (the ”fun” part of the portfolio, for example some of the smallcaps I write about on here)* Uranium: 5% (reduced to 2.5% as things got frothy)* Oil and Gas: 10%* Bonds and Wealth Preservation: 20%* Equities (35%)* UK & Europe (20%)* US (25%)* Smaller cos and private equity (30%)* Asia (15%)* Japan (5%)* EMs (5%)No allocation to real estate.Please like and share this post. It helps :)Since that October 2023 starting point, certain assets - gold, bitcoin and US equities - now account for far greater percentages, with energy, bonds and wealth preservation not having done so well.If you are starting this portfolio now, I would still recommend sticking to the original allocation and letting things grow.Really, I should re-allocate, but I don’t want to sell any bitcoin and I don’t want to sell any gold. In fact, to be honest, there is a very strong case for just owning bitcoin and being done with everything else. But that wouldn’t be balanced and that’s not what this portfolio is about.The only change we have made since October 2023 was to reduce uranium from 5% to 2.5% in February 2024. Uranium felt a bit frothy was the reason. More a gut- than evidence-based decision, and it proved the right one. I’m going to make one, quite major change to the portfolio today - in the equities department. More on this in a moment.Lastly, do as I say, not as I do. In my own portfolio, my allocation to bonds and wealth preservation is tiny: maybe 2%. I am overweight gold, bitcoin and special situations (smallcaps mostly).At some stage, I will get my comeuppance as a result, and it won’t be the first time. Then I’ll swear to change my habits, and then I will - for a bit - and then I won’t. But a more sensible investor would keep their portfolio to the above allocation.Let’s examine things in a bit more detail1. Gold (15%)It’s done very well. Up about 80% since we started the portfolio.My firm belief is that everybody should own some gold in their portfolio. Especially now.(If you do not yet own any, my guide to investing in gold is here. If you are looking to buy gold or silver, the bullion dealer I recommend is the Pure Gold Company.There is also, of course, the soon-to-be definitive book on the subject. Here it is on Amazon, and Waterstones is currently running an offer.💥 Pre-order now at Waterstones and get 25% off.Use code SUMMER25 at checkout to get your 25% discount.Hurry! Offer ends today, July 31.2. Bitcoin (5%)A huge win. Up about 450%The potential of bitcoin remains so extraordinary, as I often say, I see the risk is not so much owning it, but not owning it.Our bitcoin proxy for UK investors, who have been shut out of the sector by the FCA, is Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR). That’s done even better. Up over 1,500%. My sources tell me UK investors will be able to buy bitcoin ETFs from November. That’s what Charlie thinks anyway, and you should all subscribe to his letter.3. Special situations (10%)These are the small- and mid-caps that I sometimes write about on here.We have had some big winners, and some big fat dogs too.If you want to know what are currently my 7 biggest positions, here they are.4. Uranium (2.5%)Glad we reduced this to 2.5% when we did.Yellowcake (YCA.L) is our vehicle. We reduced around 700p in February 2024. It’s now 500pNow is probably not a bad time to buy back that 2.5%, but I’ll wait.5. Oil and Gas (10%)The iShares Oil and Gas ETF (SPOG.L) - North American oil and gas companies, basically - is my primary vehicle by which to play this. It’s off a little, but it’s outperformed oil itself. I’m also of the view now that North Sea oil and gas’s time is coming and the government will u-turn on this as well.Did you see Donald Trump’s comments today? One of the many ways he made Keir Starmer wriggle and squirm.

I’m delighted to announce my new book, The Secret History of Gold - Myth, Money, Politics and Power, published by Penguin Life. It tells the epic tale of humanity’s oldest and most treasured currency – from its explosive cosmic origins to its role in the power games of modern geopolitics.Watch the unboxing above 👆Waterstones is running an offer. 💥 Pre-order now and get 25% off. Use code SUMMER25 at checkout to get your 25% discount. Hurry! Offer ends July 31. Here’s the blurb:Gold (noun): A precious, yellow metal, prized for its beauty. Inert, immune to corrosion, highly malleable though with little utility. Seen as pure wealth.The Secret History of Gold tells the epic tale of the world’s oldest, and most treasured, currency. From its origins in the formation of the solar system to its role in both ancient myth and modern finance, Dominic Frisby explores, with wit and brevity, how gold has shaped human civilisation.Gold has inspired men to do the most brilliant – and terrible – things. It has lured explorers, conquerors and thieves. It has sparked wars, it has built empires, it has empowered leaders, good and bad. What readers have said so far:“A fabulous, fascinating, fantastical tale, told with panache by a superb taleteller.” Matt Ridley, author of How Innovation Works.”It doesn’t just tell you about gold – it makes you feel its weight through history. It’s just so interesting.” Toby Young, Spectator”Written with both insight and Dominic’s signature humour, this is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand the lengths human beings will go to for the promise of riches.” Rory Sutherland, author of Alchemy.“This delightful book is a most insightful and enjoyable romp through history and a well-researched, educational tour de force.” James Turk, author of The Money Bubble”Dominic Frisby’s writings about economics and finance are, like his comedy, intelligent, beautifully crafted and always ahead of the curve. The Secret History of Gold is well-informed, utterly coherent and very, VERY timely.” Liam Halligan, Telegraph“My most trusted source of information for anything to do with gold,” Konstantin Kisin, Triggernometry”Well-researched and razor-sharp. Written with passion, principle - and the occasional punchline.” Al Murray, comedian and historian”Possibly the best-timed book ever,” Merryn Somerset Webb, Bloomberg”A brilliant, highly readable guide to the most alluring material of all,” Luke Johnson, investor and entrepreneur.”Understand the history of gold, and you start to see what politicians and central banks would rather you didn’t. Dominic reveals all with clarity and force,” Rob Dix, author of The Price of Money.if you prefer, here’s a link to Amazon.Prefer to listen? I hear the audiobook, read by me, is very good ;) Here it is on Audible and via Apple.Please like, share - all that stuff - it helps.Thank you for your support – and stay tuned. I’ll be banging on about gold quite a lot in the coming weeks… This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This week I was listening to Merryn Talks Money. My old boss and great friend, Merryn Somerset Webb, was discussing portfolio allocation - which assets should make up the 40 in a 60:40 bond-to-equity portfolio - with Nataliia Lipikhana, executive director at JP Morgan . Merryn asked if bitcoin should be one of the assets to include, alongside gold. Lipikhana, who, until then, had spoken widely, fluently and knowledgeably about a range of subjects, suddenly stonewalled.“We don’t cover it so we can’t talk about it,” she said.Awkward pause.Merryn laughs. “At all?”“No,” says Lipikhana.Another pause.“Ok,” says Merryn. “Totally understand,” and she changed the subject.This is a symptom of something much bigger that has been at play throughout the institutional world, and not just in the UK, since the emergence of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.They’ve been shadowbanned.We know of course about the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority, how its regulations went against the pronouncements of various Chancellors, and how it effectively excluded UK citizens from the sector. Something similar has long been happening at the institutional level. “Most private banks will not accept bitcoin ETF orders for their clients, despite being able to deal with elective professionals,” a fund manager friend (who prefers to stay anonymous) tells me. “This applies in countries where there is no ban because the bank will have links to London. Even in the US, the traditional institutions will ban bitcoin internally.”Here’s a list of the biggest holders of the iShares gold ETF. Many of banking’s biggest names are there.Now here’s a list of the iShares bitcoin ETF’s biggest holders. There is nothing like the same institutional weight.(Goldman and Morgan Stanley will be market making on behalf of hedge fund clients)“Lipikhana probably feels she might get the sack if she comments on bitcoin,” my fund manager friend continues. “So she doesn’t”.You know my saying, “A bubble is a bull market in which you don’t have a position”. For years now, banks have been talking their clients away from this sector, often using that argument that it’s a bubble. This pre-dates the ETFs by ten years or more.Wall Street and the City don’t like bitcoin because they didn’t get there first. Smelly private investors did. They missed out on this epic opportunity and, rather than embrace it, they ignore it.They don’t control it. They can’t manipulate it. Don’t talk about bitcoin. Perhaps it’ll go away.Well, it hasn’t and it won’t. It is here to stay.Now with the emergence of the both the ETFs and the bitcoin treasury companies, bitcoin is edging its way further and further into the financial mainstream.“You get bitcoin at the price you deserve,” runs the saying. Ain’t it so.What this means for investors is that there is a huge wall of institutional money that is still to come into the sector. It will eventually. Bitcoin is the most technologically advanced money in history. Now that real estate is gone as a vehicle to protect against currency debasement (too highly legislated and taxed), the need for an effective savings vehicle is only greater. Bitcoin is the best savings vehicle there is.I love gold. You know I do. I think it has an enormous strategic role to play in the coming years, and should play a part in every portfolio. But bitcoin appreciates by more. It beats stocks. It beats bonds. It beats commodities.But JP Morgan would rather not comment.If you enjoyed this post, please like or share - it helps :)PS Don’t forget my brilliant book about bitcoin, if you want to learn more about the space. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

(I am sending this week’s commentary early this week due to travel)Dear Chancellor,Me again.I am the author of Bitcoin: The Future of Money? (2014), generally agreed to the first book on bitcoin from a recognised publisher.I write with regard to the proposed sale of the UK’s bitcoin. Since bitcoin was first introduced in 2009 - invented in reaction to the loose monetary policies of the Global Financial Crisis - bank bail outs, quantitative easing, zero interest policies etc - and the economic injustices they created, the protocol has grown from nothing to a market cap above $2 trillion. A whole new economy has emerged around the technology where none previously existed, providing countless opportunities for individuals, entrepreneurs and nations alike.Initially the domain of a few coders, it is now finding mass adoption at the corporate and even national level. The US is recognizing the digital asset’s importance, as it introduces its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, while China, according to estimates, holds 190,000 coins.Initially, the UK was at the heart of the Bitcoin story. Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous inventor, wrote in British English, cited UK media, and many early meetups and conferences took place here. Chancellors George Osborne and Rishi Sunak both expressed their desire for the UK to become a global hub for this emerging technology. But the FCA took an opposing view and made it increasingly difficult for UK citizens to participate, so that we have now fallen behind.Opinion about bitcoin is divided. Those who use the technology regularly believe it is not just likely, but inevitable, that it will become the world’s dominant monetary network. Many others – typically the older generation, economists or legacy finance – dismiss it as a bubble, often without having tested the tech in any meaningful way.Whichever side of the debate you fall on, the fact that Bitcoin has become the most desired digital asset in the world is indisputable.Among the many features that make bitcoin unique is that its supply is finite. With its estimated 61,000 confiscated bitcoins, the UK has been gifted an extraordinary opportunity. We now hold roughly 0.3% of total supply.I understand that politics demands a focus on the short term – the next Budget, the next election – but I urge you to approach your decision with long-term vision. Please consult with people who regularly use the technology. Do not make this decision based solely on advice from people who never use bitcoin. Take Bulgaria, for example. In 2017, it sold all of its seized bitcoin to cover a short-term budget gap. Those coins today would be worth enough to eliminate the country’s entire national debt. From a strategic perspective, the UK’s bitcoin holdings represent a once-in-a-generation opportunity. As fiat currencies decline in purchasing power and the global economy moves toward digital and AI-driven systems, this asset could help Britain re-establish itself as an economic superpower with significant geopolitical leverage and monetary independence.An opportunity of this kind is not to be thrown away lightly.Once those coins are sold, we will never be able to buy them back.If bitcoin becomes a hundred trillion dollar network – as some project – the UK's share could prove transformational. That may sound fanciful today, but every surprise in bitcoin’s history has been to the upside.There is also your personal political legacy to consider.You would be the Chancellor who sold Britain’s bitcoin.That will be how people remember you – just as Gordon Brown, for all else he did, is remembered primarily for needlessly selling Britain’s gold at the bottom of the market. For the rest of your life, every timebBitcoin rises in price, people will look at what you sold our coins for and say: “This is how much she lost us.” You are consigning yourself to that fate.Do you want that to be your legacy?So once again, I implore you: take advice from people who understand this technology and its potential. Don’t just listen to nocoiners.If you sell bitcoin for fiat you are swapping a superior asset for an inferior one. It is that simple.The trade might bring short-term benefit, but it does nothing to address the underlying structural issues facing this country. If, however, you hold on to the bitcoin – and understand how to integrate it into policy – perhaps create a UK Strategic Reserve - you may find it solves many of our problems.As bitcoiners often say, “bitcoin fixes this.”I hope you read and consider this letter with an open-mind.Yours sincerely,Dominic FrisbyAuthor of Bitcoin: The Future of Money?Writer of The Flying Frisby newsletterPS Please like, share - all that stuff. Thank you! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

The discussion dives into the classic debate between gold and Bitcoin. It highlights Bitcoin's fixed supply and decentralized nature, showcasing its transformative potential in modern finance. Meanwhile, the historical reliability of gold remains relevant, despite challenges like counterfeiting. The talk emphasizes the importance of security and individual sovereignty in the digital age. Listeners are encouraged to consider both assets as part of a balanced investment strategy, navigating the evolving financial landscape with informed choices.

I wanted to take a look at gold today.I’m going to dust off my powers of divination — or as they call it in the City, technical analysis - and see if we can figure out where it is going next.As things got frothy back in April, I argued that the market was probably due a breather. The summer is usually gold’s weakest season. Why this should be I don’t know, but it is. You’ll often find it makes a low in May or June, then re-tests that low in July or August, then things pick up in the autumn or fall, as our more literal cousins call it. In any case, I’m pleased to report that gold has basically range-traded, or consolidated, since the frothy days of April, between $3,500 and $3,100. The $3,000 level has more than held, which makes me wonder if we shall ever see gold with a $2,000 handle ever again. Unless there is a 2008 or Covid-style panic, I rather doubt we will.Meanwhile, the RSI (see the bottom panel below) has come off, meaning the heat has come out of the market, which is good.Since the US confiscation of Russian assets in 2022, pretty much every pull back to 50-day moving average (red line) has been bought, and they continue to be bought. The average is now flattening out, as you would expect with this summer consolidation, rather as it did late last year. Some sideways consolidation is good. Ideally, you want to see the short-, medium- and long-term moving averages all flatten and converge. There often follows a big move higher.The long-term moving averages (1 year and so on - not shown here) still have a bit of catching up to do (they are around $2,850 at the minute), which they will and fairly quickly as the gold price continues this sideways action.We also have something of a triangle forming (see blue lines) - with lower highs and higher lows. Triangles are seen as continuation patterns. In other words, whatever was the direction going into the formation will be the direction coming out. Up, that is to say. I rather think this triangle will complete just as the moving averages converge.When you look at gold against other currencies, the same process can be seen: a summer consolidation after an excellent winter and spring. If you are in any doubt as to whether you should own gold or not, let me answer that for you in the words of the former HSBC fund manager Charlie Morris, who now writes Atlas Pulse, one of the best newsletters out there - (you should subscribe it’s free). “Gold should be the cornerstone of an investment portfolio,” he says. “It is remarkable how few professional investors understand this”.Charlie may have a point. Look how underweight gold western portfolios are. Below 2%. Nuts.The Trump administration is going to run enormous deficits. It is not attempting to hide the fact. The same goes for the Starmer administration in the UK. The Labour backbenchers, who now seem to control policy, will not allow reduced spending. We saw that last week. Most EU nations have not got their spending under control. It means further declines in the purchasing power of the dollar, pound and euro are inevitable. Gold is your protection. What’s more, as demonstrated by the enormous buying coming out of Asia from Shanghai Cooperation Nations, China especially, it is clear gold is becoming a highly important strategic asset again. It is this buying, plus some huge options trading in China, that is driving this bull market, and it began shortly after, as I say, the seizure of Russian US dollar assets. Metals Daily’s Ross Norman, whose track record forecasting the gold price is second to none, tells me: “We are confident that there is significant unreported central bank gold buying which, coupled with some pretty heady options plays from within China, accounts primarily for a near doubling in the gold price over the last 18 months or so. He goes on:The days when central banks telegraphed their moves in advance in the interest of transparency are long gone (thank you Gordon) and they are far more nuanced and opportunistic in their approach. With Asian central banks very much under-weight gold reserves, and energised by a growing debt crisis, further fuelled by the trend to reduce dollar holdings and you have a perfect set-up for a continuing gold bull run. At the moment the East invests in gold while the West divests which actually sums up the last 30 years between those hemispheres.This bull market is consolidating. It is not over. Whether it’s because of de-dollarisation or your nation’s deficit spending, there is demand for gold, which is going to send the price higher. It may be an analogue asset in a digital world. But you will be glad you own it. Until next time,DominicIf buying gold or silver to protect yourself in these ‘interesting’ times, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Some recent articles which may be of interest: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

NB Somebody on social media is impersonating me again, sliding in to DMs, soliciting investment. Please ignore, block, report etc. Here they are on Substack.Right, here we go.Dear Chancellor Reeves“Revenue cannot be derived unless the land is productive.”— Ali ibn Abi Talib, the fourth caliphI hope you have a moment to consider what I have to say.My name is Dominic Frisby. Among other things, I am the author of a well-received book on the history of taxation, Daylight Robbery: How Tax Shaped Our Past and Will Change Our Future.I am writing to you about Stamp Duty — a tax that is causing stagnation, where you need growth.At present, if I wish to buy a house, I must first sell other assets to fund the purchase. This incurs capital gains tax. Then, on buying the property, I face another sizeable tax in the form of Stamp Duty. So I am taxed twice on the same money.The alternative is simply to stay put and do nothing, thereby paying no tax at all. Unsurprisingly, this is what most people do, which is why turnover in the housing market is so poor.How much economic activity is lost, when I stay put?* The stocks and shares I might have sold miss out on the fresh investment they would otherwise receive from their new buyer — investment so vital for businesses to grow.* All the economic activity that follows a house purchase vanishes: estate agents, conveyancing solicitors, surveyors, removals companies, builders, decorators, materials suppliers, architects, furniture shops, DIY stores.* I do not take out a new mortgage or insurance policy, nor hire tradesmen to upgrade kitchens, bathrooms or gardens, nor set up new utilities, broadband contracts or local services.* I do not trigger a purchase chain, meaning the person I would have bought from does not buy somewhere else, and all the activity that would create is lost too.* Nor do I relocate for work, missing new job opportunities, so the economy loses the productivity boost of people moving closer to better jobs.When I stay put, there is no revenue at all for the Exchequer — neither from Stamp Duty, nor from VAT on all these goods and services, nor from increased corporation tax on profits, nor from higher Income Tax on increased earnings, nor from the local spending that supports countless jobs and wages. Instead, there is stagnation where there could have been growth.Stamp Duty, largely a creation of the Tories, has immobilised the country.Britain desperately needs growth. Growth requires turnover. The best way to encourage turnover is to remove barriers to trade. Taxes — whether tariffs or duties, whatever form they take — are the biggest barriers of all.When Rishi Sunak temporarily reduced Stamp Duty during Covid, we saw exactly this effect: turnover increased, economic activity surged. Revenue to the Exchequer followed.A permanent removal of Stamp Duty would trigger a powerful boost not just to the property market but to the entire economy, meaning the government, too, would have more money to spend on whatever it sees fit. There is so much pent up demand, the resulting economic growth might even be enough to save this government at the next election.What’s more, the Tories imposed these duties, so it is an opportunity to score some points against their failure.It would, quite literally, get Britain moving again.Counter-intuitive as it may seem, the golden rule of taxation is that lower taxes and fewer taxes lead to higher revenues. History shows this time and again.In the words of John F KennedyIt is a paradoxical truth that tax rates are too high today and tax revenues are too low and the soundest way to raise the revenues in the long run is to cut the rates now.I hope you will give this serious thought.With kind regards,Yours sincerely,Dominic FrisbyPS If you enjoyed this letter, please like, share and all that stuff. It helps.You can find more on this subject in this video:Why not upgrade?If you are buying gold or silver to protect yourself in these ‘interesting’ times - and I urge you to own gold, given how governments are debasing currency - the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Finally, ICYMI, here is this week’s mid-week piece: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comMany thanks for completing my weekend polls (here they are if you missed them: paying subscribers / non-paying). Your answers were extremely useful: roughly the right amount of content, stick with the audio, the balance of investment ideas and other stuff is about right, and the price too is about right (interestingly, paying subscribers thought that, non-paying less so — that put a smile on my face). Also: keep writing about what I know.You’re a bit more equivocal about the video content. There are more gold than bitcoin bugs in the readership, with a healthy number are in the “own both” camp.And so many of you joined my Comedy Substack, it became one of Substack Humor’s fastest movers. Yippee. Thank you!Today I am going to tell you about my seven largest investment positions.Take note: the asset allocation I advocate is the Dolce Far Niente portfolio. This is 15% in gold, 5% in bitcoin, and we have a large allocation to global equities, especially the US. It also has a 10% allocation to risky/fun investments: small caps, special situations and so on (the kind of flutters I write about here). The reason for this allocation is to minimise risk and any damage caused by losses.Do as I say, not as I do and all that. My personal allocation does not fully correspond to the Dolce Far Niente, partly for lack of discipline, partly because I have a greater appetite for risk and will stomach bad losses, if they come around, partly because I am overweight bitcoin.My largest positions As I am sure you know, my two largest positions are in bitcoin and gold. In my view everyone should have an allocation to these assets. Given the debasement of currency taking place worldwide, the greater risk is not owning them. On which note …If you want to buy gold or silver to protect yourself in these interesting times, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here.But we will put those to one side. After bitcoin and gold, my seven largest positions are:

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comOh, my goodness me. I don’t think I’ve ever seen volatility like it.We have a huge speculative bubble on our hands, and it’s popping.What’s more, this bubble is full of chancers, charlatans and chief executive officers.The Mail has got onto the story. That is not a good sign. If I told you ten days ago that the price of a share you just bought would rise from 6p to 40p in a week, you’d be pretty happy.Then again, if I told you on Monday that something you owned was going to drop by 60% the following day, you’d be pretty unhappy.That’s what happened with the UK-listed bitcoin treasury companies.Nobody said it would be easy.Today we are going to try and make some sense of what is going on. We have a comprehensive list of all the UK companies jumping on this nutty bandwagon. And, most importantly, we consider what to do next.Let’s start with a timely reminder: owning a speculative bitcoin treasury company is not the same as owning bitcoin. One is a crazy speculation, the other is the future money system of the world. Bitcoin treasury stocks ≠ bitcoinI hope that is clear.Now a rant.The Great British FCA Crypto FarceI’m looking at the price of Coinsilium (AQUIS:COIN) this morning. It is ranging from 60p to 30p, i.e. doubling and halving. This situation means the beloved UK market makers might be creaming off enough money to keep them in caviar and truffles for the foreseeable future, but the ordinary retail investor is getting hammered.In the course of 7 trading days, Coinsilium has gone from 6p to 90p to 30p.The bitcoin price, meanwhile, is pretty much unchanged.This situation is almost entirely a creation of the FCA, with its decision to “protect” UK investors from the dangers of cryptocurrencies. That protection began in 2020 when bitcoin was $5,000. Today it’s $105,000. That’s a $100,000 per coin increase—a 21x or 2,000% gain—UK investors were protected from.Remember UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak spinning his “Britcoin” BS?“It’s my ambition to make the UK a global hub for cryptoasset technology, and the measures we’ve outlined today will help to ensure firms can invest, innovate and scale up in this country.We want to see the businesses of tomorrow – and the jobs they create – here in the UK, and by regulating effectively we can give them the confidence they need to think and invest long-term.This is part of our plan to ensure the UK financial services industry is always at the forefront of technology and innovation.”Nobody told the FCA! How was any of that even remotely possible when the FCA had banned the sale of crypto derivatives to UK consumers, and effectively regulated cryptoasset technology out of existence in the UK?Did the two departments even speak before he trotted out that rollocks?Of course they didn’t. They are different departments.It’s as though the UK government is inherently incompetent.Remember UK Chancellor George Osborne publicising himself buying bitcoin at an ATM? The FCA made ATMs illegal.Remind me. Who voted for the FCA? Or indeed Ofcom? Or Ofsted?Why do these bodies have such extraordinary power?It’s enough to make you a libertarian.In any case, we now have this situation of extraordinary pent-up demand, built up over many years, with hundreds of billions of pounds in ISAs and pensions wanting exposure. The result is this insane volatility in UK bitcoin treasury companies.Smarter Web Company (AQUS:SWC) went from 2.5p to above 600p, giving it a market cap over a billion. It has just £45 million in assets. Great work, FCA.Today it’s sitting just below 300p.Japan has similarly prohibitive anti-bitcoin regulations, and has thereby created the market leader in this second wave of bitcoin treasury companies, Metaplanet (3350:TYO). (Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) was the leader in phase one.)The Japanese company announced this week that it has raised another $500 million, with which it is going to pay down its 0% debt and buy more bitcoins. Why is it paying down its debt? Presumably to clean up its balance sheet so it can raise further capital on better terms to buy more bitcoin (it has targeted 1% of total supply, which would be 210,000 bitcoin). The Japanese market is starved of bitcoin access. Metaplanet is exploiting this situation.Despite a flat bitcoin price, there was a worldwide sell-off of treasury companies starting on Monday. The sell-off coincided, as these things always seem to, with coverage in the mainstream press. In this case, the Mail marked the top with a piece on the Smarter Web Company.Pretty much all the treasury sh1tcos are now down 50–70%. Is that it? Game over? Or was that just phase one?I’ve seen this play out many times over the years. I’ve seen it with uranium sh1tcos in 2006, gold junkcos, silver rubbishcos, graphite flybynights, helium hotaircos and moreIt doesn’t take a genius to work out where all this is going, and a lot of people are going to make a lot of money. A lot more are going to lose a lot of money. These things are not necessarily going to zero - they will have bitcoin on their balance sheet. But when bitcoin has one of its biennial corrections, they are going to get crucified.But we are also going to see a new corporate model emerge as a result.It’s dotcom, basically. But which companies will be the Amazons and Microsofts? And which are Pets.com and ClickMango?Every day we are hearing news of another company “pivoting” - who invented that awful word? - into a bitcoin treasury company. It is all happening very quickly.Here’s a list of the UK companies getting in on the game. Then we will look at what to do next .Meet the Players. Should I say, '‘Monkeys”?In addition to Smarter Web Company (AQUIS:SWC) and Coinsilium (AQUIS:COIN) we have: