Future is Blue

In this episode of Future is Blue, we explore the challenges facing the EU’s industrial production and trade relationships in an increasingly fragmented global economy. Joined by Aslak Berg, Research Fellow at the Center for European Reform, and Miguel Ángel González Simón, economist at Funcas, we discuss Europe’s vulnerabilities, from energy dependence and export reliance to the diverging trajectories of Germany and Spain. The conversation also delves into the EU’s critical trade relationships with the U.S. and China, highlighting strategic risks and opportunities, and concludes with actionable insights on how the EU can adapt through diversification, domestic investment, and deeper integration.

In the latest Future is Blue episode, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen is joined by Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Senior Fellow at Bruegel and Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, and Raymond Torres, Director of Funcas Europe, to discuss the potential consequences of Donald Trump’s return to the White House on EU-U.S. trade relations. The conversation explores the risks of sweeping tariffs, the vulnerability of key industries like Germany’s automotive sector, and the broader implications for European economic resilience. The guests also highlight opportunities for deeper EU integration, strategic alignment with the U.S. on China, and diversification of global trade partnerships to navigate the challenges ahead.

Despite the common perception of migrants as a drain on resources, OECD data reveals that migrants contribute positively to public finances in most advanced economies. In a recent Future is Blue interview, Ana Damas de Matos, OECD senior policy analyst, explained how migrants support aging populations, add to the labor market, and contribute more in taxes and social security than they receive in services. With effective integration policies, countries can further boost the economic benefits of migration, proving that migrants play a vital role in sustaining and strengthening host economies.

In this Future is Blue episode, host Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Alice Faibishenko, Senior Advisor at Funcas, about the recent volatility in EU sovereign debt markets, particularly in the wake of France's turbulent elections. They explore how political instability and fiscal challenges have driven up French bond spreads, sparking renewed concerns about eurozone fragmentation. Alice provides expert insights into the broader EU implications, discussing limited contagion to other economies and the long-term need for fiscal reforms to stabilize debt markets. This conversation offers listeners valuable perspectives on navigating Europe's complex financial landscape.You can read the latest SEFO publication by Funcas here. 

Sander Tordoir, an expert on European competitiveness, and Raymond Torres, a commentator on economic policy, dive into Mario Draghi’s pivotal report. They discuss Europe's urgent need for strategic solutions to combat economic stagnation and enhance productivity. The conversation highlights the challenges facing the EU tech sector, the delicate balance between decarbonization and competitiveness, and the political hurdles posed by key players like Germany and France. Together, they advocate for increased funding and responsibility to rejuvenate Europe’s economy.

Cecilia Trasi, a representative from Bruegel, dives into the EU's ambitious climate action strategy. She highlights how the EU seeks to balance decarbonization with economic competitiveness while building crucial partnerships with emerging economies. The discussion covers the upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and its implications for international trade. Trasi also delves into the EU's climate finance initiatives and the importance of aligned trade regulations to bolster global decarbonization efforts, despite the challenges in EU green diplomacy.

Alice Faibishenko, a Senior Advisor at Funcas, provides expert insights on the recent changes in the European Central Bank's monetary policy. She discusses the ECB's rate cut, highlighting its impact on Spain's financial sector and contrasting it with the Federal Reserve’s strategies. The conversation explores market reactions to these cuts, and how historical lending trends influence credit demand. Faibishenko emphasizes the importance of effective communication in navigating economic challenges, especially amid geopolitical uncertainties.

Sander Tordoir, Chief Economist at the Centre for European Reform, and Raymond Torres, Director of Funcas Europe, discuss Europe's post-election economic scene. They dive into the rise of populist parties and its impact on policies like the Green Deal. The two experts highlight the urgent need for increased investment and market integration to address productivity challenges in major economies. They also tackle digital transformation, stressing the necessity for a unified approach to boost competitiveness against global players. A roadmap for sustainable growth emerges!

Alice Faibishenko, a representative from Funcas, dives into the transformation of global trade and investment since the pandemic. She examines the concept of re-globalization and the challenges the EU faces, including declining export market share and foreign investment competition from the US and China. However, it's not all doom and gloom; Alice highlights a surge in intra-EU trade as a beacon of hope, suggesting that Europe's shifting strategies might just stabilize its economy in these uncertain times.

Professor Iain Begg, affiliated with the London School of Economics, and Raymond Torres, Director of Funcas Europe, dive deep into the complexities of the EU budget. They discuss historical challenges and the urgent need for reforms to address future enlargements like Ukraine and Moldova. The contentious Common Agricultural Policy and new fiscal rules are explored, revealing the tension between traditional spending and emerging priorities. They advocate for innovative solutions to ensure sustainable and transparent EU finances amid these evolving challenges.