Foreign Exchanges: the Podcast

This week I’m pleased to welcome back The Intercept’s Andrew Fishman for an update on Foreign Exchanges’ favorite world leader, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. We’ll talk about Bolsonaro’s cratering poll numbers, fueled by a bungling response to COVID and anger over rampant corruption.We’ll talk about Lula’s legal vindication and his reemergence as the favorite to become Brazil’s next president. We’ll talk about the alterations Bolsonaro and his oligarch buddies are attempting to make to the Brazilian electoral system and about the likelihood of a coup should, as expected, Lula win next year’s presidential election. And we’ll talk about what may be Bolsonaro’s greatest contribution to mankind, the possibly irreversible destruction of the Amazon rain forest. Possibly one of the more depressing episodes this podcast has ever produced, and that’s saying something. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.foreignexchanges.news/subscribe

I’m very grateful that the University of Florida’s Terje Østebø was able to make his third Foreign Exchanges appearance this week to talk about the rapidly changing situation in Ethiopia’s Tigray region. When Terje and I last spoke the Ethiopian military, alongside elements of the Eritrean military and Amhara regional security forces, had driven the Tigray People’s Liberation Front out of Mekelle and seemed to be in control of most of the region. In the past couple of weeks that situation has been completely upended, with the TPLF now back in control of nearly all but the western portion of Tigray, currently held by the Amhara. Terje and I discuss the shocking speed of the TPLF’s turnaround, the dire humanitarian situation in Tigray, and the likelihood of further conflict.Terje Østebø received his PhD in the History of Religion from Stockholm University, and is currently the chair of the Department of Religion and associate professor at the Center for African Studies and the Department of Religion, University of Florida. He is also the founding director of the UF Center for Global Islamic Studies. His research interests are Islam in contemporary Ethiopia, Islam, politics, and Islamic reformism in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa, ethnicity and religion, as well as Salafism in Africa. He has lived in Ethiopia for 6 years, and has extensive field-research experience.Terje’s major publications include “African Salafism: Religious Purity and the Politicization of Purity” in Islamic Africa, 6, 1-2, 2015; Muslim Ethiopia: The Christian Legacy, Identity Politics, and Islamic Reformism (co-edited with Patrick Desplat), (Palgrave-Macmillan 2013); Localising Salafism: Religious Change among Oromo Muslims in Bale, Ethiopia (Brill 2012); Islamism in the Horn of Africa: Assessing Ideology, Actors, and Objectives,International Law and Policy Institute (2010). His latest book, Islam, Ethnicity, and Conflict in Ethiopia: The Bale Insurgency (1963-1970), is now available for purchase. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.foreignexchanges.news/subscribe

This week I’m joined by attorney and activist Elizabeth Beavers, who has just written a piece for Fellow Travelers titled “Ilhan Omar was Right: The Ugly Reality of International ‘Justice’” that delves into the sordid relationship the United States has had with the International Criminal Court and really with the very concept of accountability for war crimes. We’ll talk about what she aptly calls “global justice apartheid,” unpack the frequently made claim that the domestic US legal system is capable of adjudicating American war crimes, and ask whether there’s any way to subject the US to to the same standards of international accountability that Washington demands of every other nation. You can find links to Elizabeth’s writing at her website and follow her on Twitter.Please stick around until the end for an important programming announcement. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.foreignexchanges.news/subscribe

This week I’m joined by Andrew Leber from Harvard's Department of Government and defense technology journalist Kelsey Atherton to talk about a new briefing book produced by their excellent Fellow Travelers Blog. The book compiles several policy briefs commissioned by FTB over the past several months and is intended to provide some substance for progressive members of Congress looking to steer US foreign policy in a more progressive direction. Toward that end, they’ve started a GoFundMe to support publication and distribution costs, and if you’re able to help out in that regard please do so.Because I can’t have Kelsey on without talking at least a little bit about drones, we spend a few minutes toward the end of our discussion on recent and somewhat sketchy reports of autonomous drones targeting fighters in Libya and the still nascent movement to craft some international rules of the road about the use of weapons platforms that don’t necessarily require human intervention. We’ll also discuss the proliferation of relatively inexpensive mid-level drones (or in Kelsey’s words “the Honda Civic of drones”) and what it suggests about the future of warfare.You can find Andrew and Kelsey on Twitter, and I highly recommend checking out Kelsey’s own Substack, Wars of Future Past. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.foreignexchanges.news/subscribe

What happens when an Islamic Republic decides that the “Republic” part maybe isn’t such a big deal? Journalist and returning guest Séamus Malekafzali and Sina Toossi, senior research analyst at the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), join the program to discuss this Friday’s Iranian presidential election. We’ll talk about the field, such as it is, and how it came to be the way it is, and we’ll get into presumptive winner Ebrahim Raisi’s past and his potential future. Additionally we’ll discuss what Raisi’s (likely) presidency could mean for future US-Iranian relations.You can find Sina on Twitter and at NIAC, where his Iran Unfiltered series is a great look into a media environment to which us Westerners don’t have many points of access. Séamus is also on Twitter and his Substack newsletter is definitely worth a look if you’re interested in Iran. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.foreignexchanges.news/subscribe

This week I’m very pleased to welcome back Annelle Sheline, research fellow at the Quincy Institute and scholar of the Arab world. She’s written a new piece for Foreign Policy titled “Washington Has Yemen Policy Backwards,” in which she discusses the need for a new framework for peace talks that recognizes the reality of the Houthi victory. We’ll talk about the flaws in the old framework, based on UN Security Council Resolution 2216, and what she makes of the Biden administration’s handling of the Yemen war thus far. We’ll also get into some regional issues, in particular efforts by the UAE and Saudi Arabia to carve off chunks of Yemen for their own aims and the recent economic turmoil in Oman.Annelle is a Research Fellow in the Middle East program at the Quincy Institute and an expert on religious and political authority in the Middle East and North Africa. She was previously the Zwan Postdoctoral Fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy and has worked as a journalist in Egypt and Yemen. In addition to academic writing, she was written for The Washington Post, The Nation, Foreign Policy, Politico, The National Interest, and The Globe Post, and her analysis has been published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, The Arab Gulf States Institute of Washington, Georgetown University’s Berkley Center for Religion, Peace & World Affairs, and the Baker Institute. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.foreignexchanges.news/subscribe

Returning champion and Foreign Exchanges contributor Alex Thurston is here to discuss the apparent, though not yet totally confirmed, death of Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau and what it means for Nigeria. We’ll discuss Shekau’s role in Boko Haram’s rise and development, his notorious reputation, and what his (probable) death means for the rivalry between his branch of Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province, which very publicly split with Shekau in 2016. We’ll also spend some time talking about the overall deterioration in Nigeria’s internal security as well as the recent “coup-within-a-coup” in Mali and what that may portend for the future of civilian governance in Bamako.For those who aren’t familiar, Alex is assistant professor of political science at the University of Cincinnati whose writing has appeared in numerous places, including here at Foreign Exchanges. His most recent piece looked at the implications of Shekau’s apparent death over at Lawfare. He is the author of three books: Boko Haram: The History of an African Jihadist Movement, Salafism in Nigeria: Islam, Preaching, and Politics, and most recently Jihadists of North Africa and the Sahel. You can also find him on Twitter. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.foreignexchanges.news/subscribe

I’m joined by Eli Clifton, Senior Advisor at the Quincy Institute and Investigative Journalist at Large at its Responsible Statecraft outlet. He and Ben Freeman, Director of the Foreign Influence Transparency Initiative at the Center for International Policy, have produced a new report, Restoring Trust in the Think Tank Sector, that makes three major recommendations for Washington think tanks to improve transparency in their operations. We’ll discuss the DC think tank community, the nature of the justifiably criticized “Revolving Door” between government and the private sector (you can read Eli’s most recent foray into that issue at Responsible Statecraft), and the recommendations Eli and Ben are making. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.foreignexchanges.news/subscribe

This week I’m grateful to be joined by Sandra Tamari (@SandraTamari1), executive director of the Adalah Justice Project, and Darin Hussein (@DarinZeidan) in separate interviews. We’ll talk about the events of the past few weeks across Israel-Palestine and they’ll share their experiences of the Israeli occupation, the international response to it, and the work they’re doing to try to bring the Palestinian story to a wider audience.Please check out the important work that Adalah is doing and support it if you can. Other valuable resources include the Institute for Middle East Understanding and DecolonizePalestine. And if you haven’t read it, here is last month’s Human Rights Watch report classifying the Israeli government’s treatment of the Palestinians as apartheid. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.foreignexchanges.news/subscribe

This week I’m joined by historian Nathaniel Powell, author of France's Wars in Chad: Military Intervention and Decolonization in Africa (available now), researcher at the Centre for War and Diplomacy at Lancaster University, and tweeter under the handle @natkpowell. He’s here to talk about the death of longtime Chadian President/dictator Idriss Déby under somewhat murky circumnstances last week and the fallout of his sudden demise, including the military coup that installed Déby’s son, Mahamat, as Chad’s interim (for now) head of state. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.foreignexchanges.news/subscribe