Foreign Exchanges: the Podcast

Stories from Sudan, Ukraine, Guyana, and elsewhere This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.foreignexchanges.news/subscribe

Stories from Israel-Palestine, Guinea-Bissau, El Salvador, and elsewhere This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.foreignexchanges.news/subscribe

This is the web version of Foreign Exchanges, but did you know you can get it delivered right to your inbox? Sign up today:THIS WEEKEND IN HISTORYDecember 2, 1805: At the Battle of Austerlitz, Napoleon wins what was arguably his greatest victory against a larger joint Russian-Austrian army. The Allies suffered 36,000 dead/wounded/captured compared with only 9000 for the French. The French victory was so complete that not only did it end the War of the Third Coalition, it allowed Napoleon to create the Confederation of the Rhine among the German states that had become French clients. Emperor Francis II was then forced to dissolve the Holy Roman Empire, which had been in existence continuously since 962 and traced its origins back to Charlemagne’s coronation as “emperor of the Romans” in 800.December 2, 1942: Enrico Fermi and his team create the first self-sustaining nuclear reaction at “Chicago Pile-1,” a rudimentary reactor built under the campus of the University of Chicago. This was the first milestone achievement for the Manhattan Project in its race to build a nuclear bomb before Nazi Germany.December 3, 1971: The Pakistani military undertakes preemptive airstrikes against several Indian military installations, beginning the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971, itself the final phase of the Bangladesh Liberation War. India was preparing to enter the war on Bangladesh’s side anyway, so when I say these strikes were “preemptive” I am not using that term in the phony, George W. Bush “hey they might attack us someday, you never know” sense of the term. The war, to put it mildly, was a complete disaster for the Pakistanis, who were forced to surrender a scant 13 days later and had to give up their claims on “East Pakistan” (Bangladesh) while suffering around a third of their military killed, wounded, or captured. In one of Henry Kissinger’s more notorious acts, the Nixon administration opted to support Pakistan despite evidence of its armed forces committing major atrocities against Bangladeshi civilians.December 3, 1984: A Union Carbide pesticide plant in Bhopal, India, spews toxic methyl isocyanate gas overnight, resulting in the deaths of between 3800 and 16,000 people and causing injury to at least 558,000 more. Union Carbide maintains that the leak was caused by deliberate sabotage, though Indian courts subsequently found several officials at the plant guilty of negligence. The “Bhopal Disaster” remains one of the worst industrial catastrophes in history and its adverse effects are still being felt by people in that region to the present day.MIDDLE EASTISRAEL-PALESTINEThe Israeli military (IDF) was advancing on the southern Gazan city of Khan Younis on Sunday, with Hamas officials and residents both reporting indications of nearby fighting and the IDF later confirming that it has sent ground forces into southern Gaza. The IDF has been ordering civilians to evacuate the eastern reaches of Khan Younis, and of course it’s posted a helpful interactive map on its website that warns civilians of imminent danger provided those civilians have reliable internet access and haven’t lost their special IDF secret decoder rings. Residents of Khan Younis will likely move further south to Rafah, though that city is also under heavy IDF bombardment so it’s not really safe either. Israeli officials say the IDF struck more than 400 targets over the weekend, and the official Gazan death toll had risen at last check to 15,523. The real death toll may be substantially higher, given the likelihood of bodies that haven’t yet been recovered and the closure of most of the hospitals that were handling casualties.Elsewhere:* Aid shipments into Gaza have resumed. The Palestinian Red Crescent Society says that 100 truckloads of aid entered the territory from Egypt on Saturday and I believe the aim was to bring in a similar number of trucks on Sunday though I have not seen any information yet as to whether that was accomplished.* The Biden administration may be “pressing” Israel and Hamas to resume negotiations, as White House spokes-ghoul John Kirby told NBC on Sunday, but there’s no indication it’s having any success. After the ceasefire collapsed on Friday the Israeli government recalled its Mossad negotiators from Qatar, and for Hamas’s part the Islamist group’s political wing has sworn off any future prisoner swaps “until the war ends.”* The administration is continuing to send large quantities of ordinance to the IDF, including massive “bunker buster” bombs. So any claim that it’s really pushing the Israeli government to negotiate a ceasefire or even demonstrate greater discernment in its bombardments really doesn’t hold up terribly well.* Israel Hayom is reporting that “key figures” in the US Congress have been shown the text of a “new initiative” that would condition future US aid to Egypt, Iraq, Turkey, and Yemen (all of which it identified as “Arab states,” which would be news to the Turks) on the willingness of governments in those four states to enable the ethnic cleansing of Gaza by taking in refugees. That same outlet has also reported (in Hebrew, so here’s a summary from Ryan Grim) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has asked Minister of Strategic Planning Ron Dermer to put together a plan to “thin the population in Gaza to a minimum,” which if nothing else is an incredible euphemism. The Biden administration has rejected any forced and/or permanent relocation of Gazan civilians, a point that Vice President Kamala Harris reiterated during her visit to the COP28 climate summit in Dubai over the weekend. But it perhaps could be sold on the idea of a “voluntary” (in quotes because in reality it would be anything but) evacuation that is characterized as temporary even if there’s no real intention to ever let the evacuees return.* The Guardian says its reporting has confirmed the findings of that bombshell +972 Magazine piece from a few days ago, which reported that the IDF has been using an AI system called “Habsora” (“The Gospel”) to identify targets under a process that’s been likened to a “mass assassination factory.” The system is producing targets faster than the IDF can attack them, including private homes where the likelihood of civilian casualties is high. Israeli officials are apparently insisting that the AI is programmed to minimize civilian risk, an assertion that cannot be squared with the high number of civilian casualties incurred so far in this conflict.* Israeli settler mobs attacked two West Bank villages in separate incidents on Saturday, killing at least one Palestinian in one of those attacks. The human rights organization Yesh Din says it’s catalogued some 225 settler attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank since October 7, resulting in at least nine deaths.* On a somewhat related note, one of the people killed in last Thursday’s shooting in East Jerusalem turns out to have been an Israeli civilian who shot and killed the two Hamas attackers and then was mistakenly gunned down by Israeli soldiers. Video footage apparently shows the man disarming, kneeling, and opening his shirt to demonstrate to the soldiers that he was not a threat, but one of them killed him anyway. The incident has raised issues regarding the trigger happiness of Israeli security forces and the wisdom of the Israeli government’s armed vigilante program, which in addition to risking civilian Palestinian deaths also risks more “friendly fire” shootings like this one.* The Washington Post published a story this weekend about the hasty evacuation of al-Nasr Children’s Hospital in northern Gaza last month. Without going into some of the grislier details, the staff was forced to evacuate by the IDF and left behind four premature infants who likely would not have survived relocation. They say Israeli officials told them the infants would be taken out in Red Cross ambulances but apparently they were left to die and, eventually, decompose. Reporters discovered their remains during the ceasefire. Israeli officials insist that they never ordered al-Nasr’s evacuation and have questioned the veracity of the story, despite video evidence and a recording of a phone call that the IDF itself released in which an Israeli official appears to acknowledge the need to rescue patients from the facility. The Red Cross says it never agreed to assist the evacuation and that conditions in northern Gaza would have made it impossible for its personnel to get to al-Nasr to retrieve the infants.* I mention the al-Nasr story because it strikes me as especially galling. In general I’m trying not to focus heavily on individual atrocities or allegations of atrocities in compiling these newsletters—there would be no space for anything else otherwise. I hope readers don’t mistake that for apathy about any of these stories, going back to and including the atrocities committed/allegedly committed by Gazan militants on October 7 (I know cases of sexual violence have been receiving heavy coverage of late). I feel my role here is to try to provide an overview and for me that means keeping some distance from specific events. I’m sure I don’t do that consistently but it is my aim.SYRIAAccording to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, that Saturday morning Israeli missile attack in the vicinity of Damascus killed at least two of its personnel who were in Syria on an “advisory” mission. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that the strikes killed two Syrians who were affiliated with Hezbollah as well as two foreigners, presumably these IRGC members, while wounding five other people.YEMENHouthi rebels in northern Yemen fired a barrage of missiles and drones at ships in the Red Sea on Sunday. The group damaged three commercial ships and also fired at least three drones at the US naval destroyer USS Carney, which shot the projectiles down. There’s no indication of any casualties and two of the vessels reported only minor damage (I’m unsure as to the status of the third). I would not be surprising if the US military were to retaliate against the Houthis in the near future, and there is a genuine risk that this could lead to a full-blown resumption of the Yemen war—though of course that would require Saudi Arabia’s involvement.IRAQIraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaʿ al-Sudani reportedly told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during a phone conversation on Saturday that Baghdad does not appreciate the US military carrying out attacks on Iraqi soil. The US attacked two Iraqi militia-linked targets on November 22 (during this newsletter’s holiday pause), “killing nine pro-Iran fighters” in retaliation for attacks against US personnel according to AFP. Those attacks tapered off during the Gaza ceasefire, but as we know that ceasefire is no longer operative.On Sunday, US forces carried out a drone strike on a militia target in Iraq’s Kirkuk province, killing at least five people and wounding five more. There was initially no indication as to responsibility (though one didn’t exactly have to be Sherlock Holmes to solve this caper), but the US military later confirmed that it was responsible and characterized the strike as preempting “an imminent threat.”ASIAPAKISTANUnspecified gunmen attacked a bus in northern Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan region late Saturday, killing at least nine people and injuring at least 26 others. The bus driver was among those killed, along with the driver of a truck with which the bus collided. There’s been no claim of responsibility and the main body of the Pakistani Taliban has taken the rare step of denying any involvement.PHILIPPINESA bombing targeting a Catholic mass killed at least four people and left several others wounded on the campus of Mindanao State University in the southern Philippine city of Marawi on Sunday. Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack via Telegram. The previous day, the Philippine military said its forces killed at least 11 jihadist militants in nearby Maguindanao province in an attack targeting “suspected leaders and armed followers of the Dawla Islamiyah [i.e. ‘Islamic State’] and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters” to borrow the AP’s verbiage. I don’t know whether Sunday’s bombing was planned in advance or was intended as a direct retaliation for Saturday’s incident.AFRICAGUINEA-BISSAUThe president of Guinea-Bissau, Umaro Sissoco Embaló, characterized Thursday night’s gun battle between elements of the National Guard and his Presidential Palace Battalion as an “attempted coup” in comments to reporters on Saturday. Embaló had been out of the country attending the COP28 summit when the incident took place and said it had delayed his return to Bissau. National Guard commander Victor Tchongo is now in government custody, but Embaló appeared to suggest that there were other coup plotters behind Tchongo and said he would open an investigation into the incident on Monday. The National Guard is part of the Interior Ministry, which AFP says is “dominated” by the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAICG). That party, which won June’s parliamentary election and now controls the government, is opposed to Embaló.BURKINA FASOThe military governments of Burkina Faso and Niger announced on Saturday that they are both withdrawing from the G5 Sahel regional counterinsurgency force. That group was formed in 2014 with the aim of pooling resources to battle the various jihadist groups that were threatening Sahelian governments. It began deploying joint forces a couple of years later, but as you might already have concluded it’s had minimal impact on the region’s jihadist crisis. Mali’s ruling junta quit last year, so of the original five member states only Mauritania and Chad still remain.ETHIOPIAOfficials in Ethiopia’s Oromian regional government have accused the rebel Oromo Liberation Army of killing at least 36 civilians in attacks on three villages that took place on November 24 and 27. The OLA apparently hasn’t commented and there’s no confirmation of the government claim, but the alleged attacks took place not long after another round of peace talks between the OLA and Ethiopian government broke down, so it’s conceivable the group decided to lash out in that moment. The OLA was formed as the military wing of the Oromo Liberation Front in the 1970s but broke away from the group’s political leadership when the latter reached a peace accord with the Ethiopian government in 2018. It frequently attacks non-Oromo communities in Oromia, though authorities have only said that the victims of these attacks were Orthodox Christians without reference to ethnicity.EUROPEUKRAINERussian military operations in eastern Ukraine may have hit a couple of speed bumps over the weekend. For one thing, reports that emerged on Friday suggesting that the Russians had seized the town of Maryinka, southwest of the city of Donetsk, appear to have been a bit premature. Ukrainian forces are reportedly still in control of some parts of the town, including a coking plant, though that may change in relatively short order of course. Elsewhere, the Ukrainian military claimed on Saturday that Russian attacks on the city of Avdiivka had completely ceased for a full day. That too could change in a hurry, and indeed may already have changed by the time you read this, but it suggests the Russians were at least regrouping after spending the previous several days in what seemed like intense fighting to try to take the city.The Ukrainian government says it’s investigating a claim that Russian soldiers summarily executed two surrendering Ukrainian military personnel. Details are minimal but there’s a video of this alleged incident circulating on social media. Needless to say, intentionally killing surrendering soldiers is a war crime.FRANCEA knife-wielding attacker killed one German tourist and wounded two other people near Paris’s Eiffel Tower late Saturday. The attacker is a French national who was on a French government “watch list,” had apparently pledged allegiance to Islamic State, and was also “known for having psychiatric disorders” according to Reuters. He cited the conflict in Gaza, among other triggers, to police after his arrest.AMERICASBRAZILBrazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said on Sunday that he has no intention of bringing Brazil into full membership in the OPEC+ bloc and would stick to “observer” status only, one day after he somewhat incoherently told reporters that he wanted to join the group of major oil producing nations to try to encourage them to stop producing oil. OPEC+ extended a membership offer to Brazil on Thursday, which I gather has raised some eyebrows given Lula’s stated commitment to combating climate change. Brazil’s state-owned oil company, Petrobras, is continuing to pursue new oil exploration, also despite Lula’s climate change position, though he says his aim is to invest oil profits in non-fossil fuel energy alternatives (and to encourage OPEC+ nations to do likewise). Oil remains the cause of, and solution to, all of humanity’s problems.VENEZUELAVenezuelans, or at least the ones who participated, apparently voted overwhelmingly in Sunday’s referendum to support their country’s territorial claim on western Guyana’s Essequibo region. Election officials said that the vote was 95 percent in favor for all of its five clauses—the most contentious of which was a question about whether or not to declare Essequibo a new Venezuelan state and extend citizenship to its residents—though there’s not much insight as to turnout. There’s no indication that the Venezuelan government is planning any imminent steps to try to actualize its claim on Essequibo but the referendum has nevertheless caused some consternation in Guyana and internationally.UNITED STATESFinally, HuffPost’s Akbar Shahid Ahmed offers some welcome reassurance that the worst Middle East “expert” in Washington is still central to the Biden administration’s regional policy:Four men in Washington shape America’s policy in the Middle East. Three are obvious: President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan. The fourth is less well-known, despite his huge sway over the other three ― and despite his determination to keep championing policies that many see as fueling bloodshed in Gaza and beyond.His name is Brett McGurk. He’s the White House coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, and he’s one of the most powerful people in U.S. national security.McGurk crafts the options that Biden considers on issues from negotiations with Israel to weapon sales for Saudi Arabia. He controls whether global affairs experts within the government ― including more experienced staff at the Pentagon and the State Department ― can have any impact, and he decides which outside voices have access to White House decision-making conversations. His knack for increasing his influence is the envy of other Beltway operators. And he has a clear vision of how he thinks American interests should be advanced, regarding human rights concerns as secondary at best, according to current and former colleagues and close observers.Indeed, even though McGurk has spent nearly 20 years giving bad advice about the Middle East to a succession of US presidents—and even though his fixation on Saudi-Israeli normalization at Palestinian expense may have helped trigger the October 7 attacks—his influence today appears to be greater than it’s ever been. I’m sure that makes all of us feel a little better.Thanks for reading! Foreign Exchanges is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.foreignexchanges.news/subscribe

This is the web version of Foreign Exchanges, but did you know you can get it delivered right to your inbox? Sign up today:TODAY IN HISTORYNovember 28, 1814: The Times of London is published via a new steam-powered printing press, making it the first major newspaper so produced. The use of the faster steam press took newspapers from a niche business to a mass market one, in the process boosting efforts to increase literacy.November 28, 1943: Winston Churchill, Franklin Roosevelt, and Joseph Stalin begin the Tehran Conference, the first of three major World War II meetings between the leaders of the UK, US, and USSR. The main outcome of Tehran was that Roosevelt and Stalin managed to get Churchill to commit to an invasion of France, in part to force Germany to pull forces away from their eastern front with the Soviets. They also discussed the eventual partition of Germany and creation of the United Nations.MIDDLE EASTISRAEL-PALESTINEHamas and the Israeli government, thanks primarily to Qatari mediation, finally agreed on the terms of a detainee exchange and temporary ceasefire deal last week. The accord, which went into effect on Friday morning, was originally intended to involve the release of some 50 hostages being held by Hamas and other Gazan militant groups and some 150 Palestinians in Israeli custody. Hamas has also been releasing a number of Thai and Filipino nationals under a separate arrangement negotiated by the Qataris. The arrangement was to have been implemented in stages over four days, ending Tuesday morning local time. The process appeared to be faltering on Saturday, as Hamas delayed its hostage release while accusing the Israelis of violating the terms of the agreement, before some additional Qatari diplomacy apparently salvaged things.The reason I referred above to what the deal “originally” involved is because it’s since been extended. The Israelis and Hamas have agreed to continue the ceasefire and daily detainee releases for at least two more days, though Thursday morning, albeit amid new accusations from both sides about ceasefire violations. I’m not entirely certain about the details but Israeli officials have said they’re expecting Hamas to release at least 10 hostages per day, which at current exchange rates suggests around 30 Palestinians released per day. Efforts are underway to extend this arrangement beyond Thursday morning, though it goes without saying that at some point all the hostages will be released and it’s unclear what will happen then. It’s true that conflicts at rest have a tendency to stay at rest, but Israeli rhetoric has indicated a clear intention to resume pulverizing Gaza once the detainee exchanges are no longer part of the equation.In other items:* Some of the freed Israeli hostages have talked to media and describe being treated poorly, which is not surprising. There have been claims of treatment that seems outright cruel though I’m unaware (which to be clear does not mean they haven’t been made) of any claims of physical cruelty (apart from the cruelty of their initial abductions, of course). Several of the hostages seem to indicate that their access to food and water diminished over time but that may be related to deprivations across Gaza caused by the Israeli blockade and the minimal amount of aid that has entered the territory. Palestinians released from Israeli custody, who have been described as “prisoners” though many of them have never been charged with anything under the West Bank’s rigged military justice system, have described harrowing treatment including torture. This is consistent with claims made by Palestinians swept up in Israeli mass arrest operations since the October 7 attacks and subsequently released.* On the subject of aid, the ceasefire is/was intended in part to facilitate a surge of aid into Gaza and its distribution throughout the territory—including across the heavily battered northern area. That effort does appear to have been successful, though as United Nations officials have said even this temporary surge isn’t enough to meet the need. The Biden administration is sending three military planeloads of humanitarian aid to Egypt this week for distribution into Gaza.* Over the four days of the initial detainee exchange, under which Israeli authorities released somewhere around 150 Palestinians, they detained 133 Palestinians in the West Bank. Make of that what you will. As Spencer Ackerman noted yesterday, with events in Gaza getting most of the attention the Israeli government and its settler proxies are continuing to kill (including at least two more on Tuesday), arrest, and displace Palestinians in the West Bank at unprecedented rates. Unlike Gaza, where Israeli leaders have at least articulated the barest inkling of a goal (the “destruction of Hamas,” ostensibly), there’s no indication what, if anything, might stop the violence in the West Bank.* The Biden administration has dispatched CIA Director and de facto Secretary of State William Burns to Qatar to participate, along with Egyptian, Israeli, and Qatari officials, in talks on extending the current “pause” (the administration is still refusing to call it a “ceasefire”). Burns is there mostly so that the administration can claim credit for the ceasefire/exchange deal even though its embrace of the Israeli military campaign in Gaza has left it unable to contribute all that much to this diplomatic process. Actual Secretary of State Antony Blinken is undertaking another European-Middle Eastern tour this week, mostly (from what I can tell) in order to look busy.* One message the administration is now ostensibly delivering to the Israeli government is that any eventual Israeli military (IDF) incursion into southern Gaza has to be more circumspect than its obliteration of northern Gaza. In particular the administration says it’s insisting that a southern operation must not cause “significant further displacement of persons.” With most of the territory’s population already displaced into the south (where the IDF has continued bombing them), it’s unclear where they would go anyway. And with the IDF already having killed over 15,000 people (probably well over, given that it’s been at least a couple of weeks since Gazan authorities could issue a reliable casualty update), the optics of this situation may finally be testing the administration’s capacity for indulging Israeli war aims.* Israeli media outlets have gotten hold of leaked emails demonstrating that “a highly respected career military intelligence NCO” in the IDF had warned her superiors over the summer that Hamas fighters were training for what looked like an attack on an Israeli kibbutz. Those warnings were, according to the emails, subsequently corroborated but then dismissed further up the chain of command with arguments that the training was nothing more than a staged demonstration. The emails may increase public anger toward the IDF but seemingly give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu evidence to bolster his claim that any failure to prevent the October 7 attacks rests with Israeli security forces rather than with his government. Perhaps that’s why they were leaked.YEMENYemen’s Houthi rebels escalated their attacks on Israeli interests when they hijacked the cargo vessel Galaxy Leader in the Red Sea on November 19. That ship is apparently part-owned by an Israeli businessman, though there was no other immediately apparent connection to Israel and none of the 25 people who were on board—and who are now in Houthi custody—are thought to have been Israeli. The USS Mason, a naval destroyer, reportedly prevented the hijacking of another cargo ship in the Red Sea on Sunday, but US officials now believe the would-be hijackers were Somali pirates rather than Houthi fighters. They have not ruled out the possibility of some sort of Houthi connection. Some Israeli shipping now appears to be diverting around Africa to avoid the Red Sea, which needless to say makes for a significantly longer journey.TURKEYTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had told reporters earlier this month that his Iranian counterpart, Ebrahim Raisi, would visit Ankara on Tuesday. Turkish media reported on the planned summit for more than two weeks, even as late as Monday evening, but Tuesday came and Raisi was, uh, not there. It’s unclear whether this was an intentional snub or a miscommunication, particularly since the Iranian government never mentioned any planned summit. Either way it’s somewhat bizarre.UNITED ARAB EMIRATESThe BBC is reporting, based on “leaked briefing documents,” that UAE officials are hoping to use the COP28 climate change summit, which they’re hosting later this week, as a forum for concluding some new oil and natural gas deals. UAE officials haven’t denied the report but they have said their focus is on achieving “meaningful climate action” at the summit—efforts to undermine that action notwithstanding.SAUDI ARABIAAnother investigative report suggests that the Saudi government is pursuing its own oil-forward agenda, something called the “oil demand sustainability program.” This effort aims to use the kingdom’s massive public investment fund and some of its largest companies to sell developing nations on an array of fossil fuel-heavy technologies, including supersonic aircraft, gas-fueled cars, and oil and natural gas fueled power plants. The initiative is primarily aimed at emerging African economies and, as the name suggests, is intended to sustain oil demand even as developed countries move increasingly toward renewable energy. This is completely incompatible with the kingdom’s stated adherence to the international climate agenda, though if you think the Saudis actually mean what they say when they talk about reducing carbon emissions you’re a far more trusting person than I.ASIAMYANMARThe rebel “Brotherhood Alliance” claimed on Monday that its fighters had seized control of another significant commercial outpost close to the Chinese border in northern Myanmar’s Shan state. In that sense the rebels seem to have picked up right where we left them prior to Thanksgiving, on the advance in Shan and several other provinces across the country. With Myanmar’s ruling junta promising to stem those advances without actually demonstrating any ability to do so, the Chinese military conducted multi-day exercises near the border over the weekend. There’s no indication that Beijing is planning to intervene here but it would need to respond to any instability along the border itself. PHILIPPINESThe Philippine government and communist New People’s Army rebels announced on Tuesday that they will reopen peace talks, under Norwegian mediation. Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte broke off the last round of talks in 2017 but the basic outlines are still in place for a deal that would see the NPA transition from militant to political movement in return for amnesty for its fighters.NORTH KOREAThe North Korean military finally succeeded in putting a spy satellite in orbit last week, sparking an immediate security crisis along the Korean Demilitarized Zone. The South Korean government announced shortly after the launch that it was suspending part of the intra-Korean Comprehensive Military Agreement in order to increase its surveillance capabilities along the border, which Pyongyang took as an invitation to scrap the rest of the deal and begin restoring border guard posts and moving heavy armaments into the border region. The CMA bans “aerial surveillance,” a category that the South Korean government has decided includes satellites as well as sub-orbital aircraft so they’re accusing North Korea of having violated the accord first. North Korean state media reported on Tuesday that the satellite had taken photographs of the White House and the Pentagon, which puts Pyongyang roughly on par with Wikipedia in terms of its new surveillance capabilities.JAPANJapanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio hosted Vietnamese President Võ Văn Thưởng on Monday, at which time the two agreed to upgrade their bilateral relationship to the level of “comprehensive strategic partnership.” That means strengthening economic as well as military ties, which could pull Vietnam further toward the US axis despite its still-strong relationship with China. Tokyo has in the past helped to support Vietnamese activity in the South China Sea, in waters whose ownership Hanoi disputes with China. The upgrade puts Japan’s relationship with Vietnam on an equal footing with China, India, and the US.AFRICASUDANThe deputy commander of the Sudanese military, Yassir al-Atta, delivered a speech to the Sudanese General Intelligence Service in Omdurman on Tuesday in which he openly accused the UAE government of supporting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces group. This is the first time a senior member of the Sudanese military/de facto government has leveled that accusation directly and it charges the UAE with complicity in a growing list of (alleged) RSF atrocities, particularly in the Darfur region. Atta further accused the governments of the Central African Republic, Chad, and Uganda of acting as conduits for UAE-supplied arms.In response, Emirati officials denied supporting the RSF and insisted that they have “consistently called for de-escalation, a ceasefire, and the initiation of diplomatic dialogue” since the military and RSF went to war with one another back in April. Observers have noted that the RSF is using more sophisticated weaponry, especially drones, than it had at the start of the conflict, but the paramilitaries insist they’ve seized those arms from Sudanese military bases rather than obtaining them from abroad. The Ugandan government also responded to Atta’s charges, similarly rejecting them.SIERRA LEONESierra Leonean authorities say that unrest in Freetown early Sunday morning was the result of a “failed attempted coup” involving a number of active duty and retired members of the country’s military and police forces. According to Al Jazeera, they’ve arrested “13 military officers and one civilian” and “have published photographs of 32 men and two women…being sought in connection with the unrest.” The alleged coup plotters attacked a military barracks and two prisons in the capital, killing at least 20 people and releasing some 2200 detainees, an unknown number of whom have been recaptured. Authorities imposed a curfew in the city that they’ve since relaxed. Like most failed coups the rationale behind this one remains unclear, though it presumably involved some combination of political and economic resentment. President Julius Maada Bio’s narrow and heavily disputed victory in June’s presidential election may have ratcheted up some of those resentments.LIBERIAThe official results came out while I was on break, but challenger Joseph Boakai did in fact defeat incumbent George Weah in Liberia’s presidential runoff earlier this month. Weah, to his credit, conceded without incident even before the release of those official numbers.BURKINA FASOSome 3000 jihadist fighters attacked the town of Djibo in northern Burkina Faso on Sunday, according to Burkinabè state media. Details are very spotty but authorities are claiming that security forces killed at least 400 attackers from the al-Qaeda aligned Jamaʿat Nusrat al-Islam wa’l-Muslimin group, which has kept Djibo blockaded and largely cut off from the rest of the country for more than a year. There’s no definitive word on casualties among security forces or civilians, though the UN says it’s confirmed at least 40 civilians killed and more than 42 wounded.EUROPERUSSIAA Russian court on Tuesday extended the detention of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich through at least January 30. Russian authorities arrested Gershkovich in March on spying charges that they’ve never fully explained, contending that the details are classified. He will presumably be traded back to the US at some point, but Russian officials have said they won’t discuss a prisoner swap until after Gershkovich stands trial, and they continue to delay that process.A new report from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and the Levada Center shows that domestic support for Russia’s war in Ukraine has not diminished, even as Russians show increasing weariness for the conflict and for the economic hardships caused by Western sanctions. Indeed, the hardship appears to be hardening attitudes toward negotiations, with a number of focus group subjects expressing the view that Russia has sacrificed too much to give up any of the Ukrainian territory it has seized. I bet more sanctions will solve that problem.UKRAINEThe Ukrainian military’s commander in Avdiivka, Vitaliy Barabash, told a media outlet on Tuesday that the Russian military has intensified its assault there and is now “attempting to storm the city from all directions.” It’s unclear whether the Russians would be able to use Avdiivka as a staging ground for further offensives, particularly in the short term giving the impending onset of winter, but taking the city would at the very least further secure Russian-controlled parts of Donetsk oblast. Elsewhere, Marianna Budanova, the wife of Ukrainian military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov, has reportedly been hospitalized for heavy metal poisoning and there are indications that a number of officials in the military intelligence service (GUR) have also been poisoned. I’ll leave it to the reader to speculate as to potential suspects.The Ukrainian government will later this week reportedly unveil a number of changes to its military mobilization system in an effort to reduce the incidence of both draft dodging and of forced conscription. Full details aren’t yet known, but one part of the reform will involve the use of “commercial recruitment companies” to identify potential conscripts who have needed skills (mechanics, for example). These individuals will then somehow be given assurances that they won’t be deployed to the front but will instead be put to work in support roles. Given Ukraine’s need for more front-line soldiers, however, there must be more to it than that.POLANDPolish President Andrzej Duda on Monday swore in a new government led by incumbent Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki in a move that has opposition leaders crying foul. Morawiecki has two weeks to form a government that can pass a parliamentary confirmation vote, a task even he acknowledges he’s almost certain to fail given the results of last month’s election. So Duda, who favors Morawiecki’s right wing Law and Justice Party, is simply delaying the opposition’s inevitable takeover for another two weeks. Why, you ask? Well, it seems fairly clear at this point that he’s delaying in order to give Law and Justice more time to appoint party loyalists to important state positions, which could create problems for the government that will presumably take office after this two week period is up.FINLANDThe Finnish government, which had already closed all but one of its checkpoints along the Russian border, is planning to close the entire border for the next two weeks in hopes of stemming the flow of asylum seekers attempting to enter Finland. Authorities say that 900 such people have tried to cross the border from Russia this month, a hefty increase that they say is the product of a deliberate effort by the Russian government to funnel people to the border.NETHERLANDSConfounding polling that suggested a narrow race, the far right Party for Freedom (PVV) handily won last week’s Dutch parliamentary election. PVV came away with 37 seats in the 150 seat House of Representatives, 12 ahead of the second place GreenLeft-Labour alliance. The victory may put party boss Geert Wilders in line to become the next Dutch prime minister, assuming he can moderate his extremist agenda enough to attract coalition partners. That may be easier said than done.AMERICASARGENTINASpeaking of far right election victories, libertarian extremist Javier Milei won Argentina’s presidential runoff on November 19. Polling, which had been wrong at every stage of this election, was wrong again, having predicted a tight race only to see Milei win an 11 point victory over Finance Minister Sergio Massa. Milei, whose agenda includes dissolving Argentina’s central bank and ditching the peso in favor of the US dollar, may find himself struggling against a relatively unfavorable Congress once he takes office next month.UNITED STATESFinally, The Nation’s Mohammad Alsaafin finds both US and Israeli plans for the future of Gaza to fall short, for one seemingly basic reason:Speaking to reporters last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggested that the territory’s governance should be unified with the West Bank, and laid out a series of edits for the future of Palestine.“Gaza cannot continue to be run by Hamas,” Blinken said. “It’s also clear that Israel cannot occupy Gaza…. it is imperative that the Palestinian people be central to the governance of Gaza and the West Bank.Blinken’s parameters were defied days later by Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who declared, “IDF forces will remain in control of the Strip,” and made clear that he will not allow the Palestinian Authority to play a role there. (Netanyahu then told Fox News that Israel “does not seek to occupy” Gaza, though, given the facts on the ground, it is hard to know how Israel defines “occupation.”)The back-and-forth over what comes next in Gaza has prompted headlines like this one from NBC News: “The gap between the Biden administration and Netanyahu government over Gaza’s future is widening.”But there is a glaringly absent party in these conversations: the Palestinian people themselves. Nobody seems particularly interested in what they might have to say about the future of their land.Thanks for reading! Foreign Exchanges is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.foreignexchanges.news/subscribe

This is the web version of Foreign Exchanges, but did you know you can get it delivered right to your inbox? Sign up today:Friends, for family reasons and also because of my own mental exhaustion I will be taking a longer than usual break from the newsletter for this year’s Thanksgiving holiday. The newsletter will be going quiet following Thursday’s roundup and will return to our regular schedule on Tuesday, November 28. As I’ve written before here I can always tell when it’s time for me to take a bit of a break from the newsletter and the truth is we probably passed that point around three or four weeks ago so I’m running on fumes. Thanks for reading and for supporting this venture!TODAY IN HISTORYNovember 14, 1965: The Battle of Ia Drang, the first major engagement between the United States and the North Vietnamese Army, begins. It ended on November 18 with both sides claiming victory, though the NVA’s ability to fight the much better armed US Army to a draw was a boost to their morale and probably the battle’s most important effect.November 14, 2001: Fighters with the Northern Alliance rebel coalition enter and occupy the city of Kabul, marking the end of the US war in Afghanista—just kidding. I had you going there for a second, didn’t I?INTERNATIONALWith deaths due to “extreme heat” projected to increase five-fold by 2050, according to The Lancet Countdown, you’ll no doubt be pleasantly surprised to learn that an AP investigative report shows that the “green transition plans” being formulated by most major fossil fuel companies are not green, not transitional, and not even really plans. Without any serious government pressure to force them to invest in genuinely renewable technologies, these firms are able to do things like, say, classify natural gas development as a “green” investment. That’s absurd, of course, but who’s counting?The main problem with these plans has long been, and continues to be, the fact that fossil fuel companies exempt the products they sell when assessing their progress toward “net zero” carbon emissions. Firms only account for “Scope 1” emissions, which are their direct carbon outputs, and “Scope 2” emissions, the indirect output that results from their production process. The emissions that ensue when people burn the products they sell are considered “Scope 3” and energy firms disavow any responsibility for them. Like tobacco companies, they argue that what the customer does with their products is the customer’s business, not theirs. Maybe people just want to buy a barrel of oil and place it in their foyer as a conversation piece or put it to some other use that doesn’t emit carbon. Who’s to say?MIDDLE EASTISRAEL-PALESTINEEarly Wednesday morning Israeli forces began what they called “a precise and targeted operation against Hamas in a specified area in the Shifa hospital” involving “medical teams and Arabic speakers, who have undergone specified training to prepare for this complex and sensitive environment, with the intent that no harm is caused to the civilians.” There are hundreds of patients and thousands of other people who have been trapped in the hospital by the IDF and the chances that “no harm” will come to any of them in the next several hours are probably slim. Israeli officials have been insisting that Hamas’s lair is located underneath the hospital but at this point it’s too soon to know if that’s the target or if this is a more limited operation. This is a developing story so there’s not much more I can say about it at this time.What I can say is that the Biden administration gave a green light to this operation earlier in the day, when White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that the administration has “independent intelligence” (which is code for “we didn’t get this from the IDF”) that “Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad use some hospitals in the Gaza Strip — including Al-Shifa — and tunnels underneath them to conceal and to support their military operations and to hold hostages.” According to Kirby this intelligence shows that the militant groups have a “command and control” center in Shifa and “have stored weapons there.” Kirby insisted that that the administration was not endorsing an Israeli attack on the hospital, but anybody with ears to hear or eyes to read what he said should have no doubt as to what the intent was.I wrote everything below prior to news of the Israeli assault breaking so some of it might no longer be relevant but I think most of it still is:Gazan health authorities said on Tuesday that some 40 patients at Shifa—three of them babies—have died since that facility ran out of generator fuel on Saturday. Without electricity the hospital cannot maintain its incubator units and so there are now 36 newborns who are at critical risk. With the IDF surrounding the hospital it’s also become impossible to transfer the dead to a cemetery, so personnel are planning to bury some 120 bodies in a mass grave on site. Gazan officials have proposed evacuating the facility under the auspices of the Red Cross/Red Crescent and sending its remaining patients to Egypt but there had been no movement on that front at time of writing. The Israeli government has apparently offered to send the hospitals more incubators, a fascinating attempt at a humanitarian gesture that would be completely pointless because the problem isn’t the incubators, it’s the electricity.In other news:* David Ignatius at The Washington Post reported (I use that term loosely) on Monday that “Israel and Hamas are close to a hostage deal.” With the caveat that if David Ignatius told me the sky was blue I’d glance out the window to double check, the terms he reported are that Hamas would release (or facilitate the release) of the women and children that it and other Gazan militant groups took hostage during their October 7 rampage through southern Israel. This would be done in stages and be matched by the release of Palestinian women and children being held by Israeli authorities. It would also involve a ceasefire of unspecified duration but “perhaps five days” according to Ignatius. The ceasefire could allow some time to address humanitarian issues in Gaza though I don’t know what that would entail and whatever it was would almost certainly be inadequate.* Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen met with International Committee of the Red Cross President Mirjana Spoljaric Egger on Tuesday and later told reporters that the ICRC has had no access to the aforementioned hostages. It’s highly unlikely that the Israelis would agree to anything involving hostages without at least proof of life, so this could be a big sticking point with respect to the potential prisoner deal outlined above. Families of the hostages, meanwhile, are marching from Tel Aviv to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence in Jerusalem to pressure him to take some action to secure the hostages’ release.* Israeli occupation forces killed at least eight Palestinians in the West Bank on Tuesday, seven of them in Tulkarm. The IDF carried out a drone strike in that city, an occurrence that’s still relatively rare in the West Bank though it’s certainly become more common over the past year and in particular the past month.* Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich issued a statement on Tuesday endorsing what he laughably termed the “voluntary emigration of Gaza Arabs to countries around the world.” I guess “leave or die” is a choice, right? A couple of Israeli politicians floated this idea on Monday in a Wall Street Journal editorial that was less a serious proposal than a written middle finger to Western critics of the Israeli military campaign. That piece didn’t go into extensive detail about what a mass relocation would look like—again, it wasn’t meant as a serious proposal—but Smotrich’s intent is much easier to guess, and that’s the permanent ethnic cleansing of Gaza and the relocation of its population as far away from Israel as possible. Smotrich, whose ministerial brief also includes running the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories office, isn’t part of Netanyahu’s “war cabinet” but that doesn’t mean he’s completely lacking in influence.* The US and UK governments on Tuesday announced new sanctions targeting Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad members along with a Lebanese entity that allegedly facilitates money transfers from Iran to Gazan militant groups. This is the third round of sanctions the Biden administration has imposed since October 7. Also on Tuesday, over 400 employees of the Biden administration sent a joint letter to their boss, Joe Biden, expressing opposition to the administration’s approach to the Gaza conflict.YEMENHouthi rebels say they fired another barrage of missiles toward Israel on Tuesday. There’s no confirmation of this, though the IDF did say that its air defenses downed a single missile near Eilat that we can probably assume was of Houthi provenance. The leader of Yemen’s Houthi movement, Abdulmalik al-Houthi, delivered a speech on Tuesday pledging that his rebel fighters would continue attacking Israel. In particular, Houthi suggested that they could target Israeli commercial vessels in the Red Sea, which would certainly be an easier target for them than Israel itself.IRAQA Turkish drone strike killed two people, both allegedly members of the Sinjar Resistance Units militia, in northern Iraq’s Nineveh province on Monday evening. The Sinjar militia was formed in 2014 with assistance from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and is still allied with that group, which makes its personnel potential targets for the Turkish military.Elsewhere, the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court removed two members of the Iraqi parliament on Tuesday, one of whom just happened to be speaker Mohammed al-Halbusi. It’s not clear why, though another MP named Laith al-Dulaimi had reportedly sued Halbusi alleging that the speaker forged Dulaimi’s name on a resignation letter. Dulaimi was, as it happens, the other MP who had his term ended by the court (I assume that’s not a coincidence). The ruling created a potential political crisis for Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaʿ al-Sudani. As speaker, Halbusi was Iraq’s leading Sunni Arab politician, and his support was important to Sudani’s government. Three members of his Progress Party quit their cabinet posts after the court ruling and it remains to be seen how that will impact Sudani’s position.ASIAAFGHANISTANAfghan Commerce Minister Haji Nooruddin Azizi apparently visited Pakistan this week, where—according to the Afghan government—he pressed Pakistani Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani on the issue of all those Afghan migrants the Pakistani government is presently deporting. Specifically it sounds like Azizi raised the issue of allowing deportees to at least take some of their money and/or possessions to Afghanistan with them. Deportees are currently arriving with nothing and are being housed in what are effectively refugee camps—leaving aside the incongruity of being a “refugee” in one’s home country—on the Afghan side of the border.MYANMARReports on Monday only hinted at some new fighting in western Myanmar’s Chin state, but as more details are emerging the situation there sounds pretty serious. According to the Chin National Front, rebel fighters had by the end of the day seized two Myanmar military outposts and were working to seize control of the Myanmar-Indian border. According to Indian media the fighting has sent some 2000 people streaming across that border to escape. In neighboring Rakhine state, the rebel Arakan Army has also been seizing military outposts and authorities have imposed a curfew in the state capital, Sittwe, as a result. Rebel factions across Myanmar have launched new offensives in recent weeks, starting with the “1027” (for October 27) operations by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army in Shan state. Myanmar’s ruling junta is clearly struggling to mount a response.CHINAJoe Biden told reporters on Tuesday that his main goal in meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in San Francisco this week is to restore “normal” communications between their governments. In particular this would involve a return to regular military-to-military contacts, something Beijing ended in the wake of former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last year. Any prospect of resuming those contacts was complicated by the fact that former Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu was under US sanction. But as he’s no longer defense minister that complication is no longer an issue.AFRICALIBERIALiberian voters turned out on Tuesday for the second round of that country’s presidential election, pitting incumbent George Weah against Joseph Boakai. Both candidates finished with just under 44 percent of the vote in last month’s first round. Such a close finish might augur poorly for the incumbent in a head to head matchup, though that’s just one of many factors that could sway this vote in either direction. Polls have closed in that contest but I have yet to see anything by way of preliminary or partial results.MALIMali’s ruling junta says its security forces have seized control over the northern town of Kidal after battling with rebels in that region for several days. The Malian military and mercenary auxiliaries marched on Kidal after United Nations peacekeepers vacated the region as part of their ongoing withdrawal from Mali. Kidal has been a rebel stronghold since the initial northern Mali uprising in 2012 and government control there has been nebulous at best since then. There’s been no comment as far as I know from the rebels and it’s unclear what their disposition is at this point.ETHIOPIAAccording to Addis Standard, Fano militia fighters attacked a predominantly Oromo community in Ethiopia’s Amhara region last week, killing at least 25 people and displacing some 3000 into the Oromia region. The Fano militia is still battling the Ethiopian government but Amhara paramilitary groups have also made a pastime of preying on ethnic Oromo communities (likewise, Oromo militias have preyed on ethnic Amhara). In this case they apparently demanded grain from the community and attacked after residents refused to comply.On a more upbeat note, the US Agency for International Development is reportedly planning to resume food distribution across Ethiopia next month under a “one-year trial period.” The agency suspended its Ethiopian food program earlier this year amid allegations that the aid was being diverted. It resumed providing food aid to Ethiopian refugees last month and is now planning to spend the next year testing whether procedural changes adopted by aid groups and the Ethiopian government are enough to stop that alleged diversion. Solid data is hard to come by but it’s possible that hundreds or thousands of Ethiopians have died because of the decision (which the UN World Food Program joined) to suspend food aid.DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGOThe death toll from Sunday’s Allied Democratic Forces attack on a village in the eastern DRC’s North Kivu province has risen to 33, according to provincial officials. ADF fighters are also believed to have been responsible for attacking a village in neighboring Ituri province on Tuesday, killing at least 11 people.EUROPERUSSIAVladimir Putin signed a new law on Tuesday that permits elections to be held even in parts of Russia that are under martial law. This apparently clears the way for the portions of Ukraine that Moscow claims to have annexed to participate in next year’s presidential election. The effect will be to try to stitch those regions a little more tightly to Russia and complicate any possible return to Ukrainian authority.UKRAINEThe European Union promised back in March to supply the Ukrainian military with 1 million 155 mm artillery shells within 12 months. You’ll never guess how that went. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told a meeting of EU defense ministers on Tuesday that the bloc isn’t going to fulfill its commitment and even went so far as to criticize the fact that it was made in the first place. The will was apparently there, but EU member states still don’t have the collective capacity to churn out that many shells that quickly. The effort has apparently sparked a boost in production capacity but not enough to meet the 12 month deadline.SWEDENSweden’s NATO accession may be moving slightly forward, as the Turkish parliament’s foreign affairs committee will take up the issue on Thursday. It’s been about three weeks since Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan submitted Sweden’s accession to parliament and it should be clear by now that the folks in Ankara are in no particular hurry to work their way through that process. There may be some impetus on the part of other NATO members to have the issue resolved in time for the alliance foreign ministers summit on November 28, but Erdoğan has proven himself to be fairly impervious to that sort of pressure in the past.AMERICASUNITED STATESFinally, TomDispatch’s William Hartung wonders whether the “Arsenal of Democracy” really cares all that much about the “democracy” part:The list of major human rights abusers that receive U.S.-supplied weaponry is long and includes (but isn’t faintly limited to) Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, Turkey, Nigeria, and the Philippines. Such sales can have devastating human consequences. They also support regimes that all too often destabilize their regions and risk embroiling the United States directly in conflicts.U.S.-supplied arms also far too regularly fall into the hands of Washington’s adversaries. As an example consider the way the UAE transferred small arms and armored vehicles produced by American weapons makers to extremist militias in Yemen, with no apparent consequences, even though such acts clearly violated American arms export laws. Sometimes, recipients of such weaponry even end up fighting each other, as when Turkey used U.S.-supplied F-16s in 2019 to bomb U.S.-backed Syrian forces involved in the fight against Islamic State terrorists.Such examples underscore the need to scrutinize U.S. arms exports far more carefully. Instead, the arms industry has promoted an increasingly “streamlined” process of approval of such weapons sales, campaigning for numerous measures that would make it even easier to arm foreign regimes regardless of their human-rights records or support for the interests Washington theoretically promotes. These have included an “Export Control Reform Initiative” heavily promoted by the industry during the Obama and Trump administrations that ended up ensuring a further relaxation of scrutiny over firearms exports. It has, in fact, eased the way for sales that, in the future, could put U.S.-produced weaponry in the hands of tyrants, terrorists, and criminal organizations.Now, the industry is promoting efforts to get weapons out the door ever more quickly through “reforms” to the Foreign Military Sales program in which the Pentagon essentially serves as an arms broker between those weapons corporations and foreign governments.Thanks for reading! 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