Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

Substantial trade linkage notwithstanding, Asean’s near-term outlook is not particularly vulnerable to the ongoing slowdown in China . Asia faces many macro risks, but a slowing China in not at the top of the list. Global inflation threat is a non-China factor Chinese tourists have been largely non-existent since 2020, hence there is no additional downside. Asean’s trade with China is a global demand beta that can withstand a domestic demand slowdown. US interest rates, global capital flows, and food/fuel prices matter more for Asean. Full commentary and analysis available here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Barry Eichengreen, professor at University of California at Berkeley, a foremost expert on economics and international finance, joins Kopi Time. We begin with the war in Ukraine, where he is calling for rebuilding to begin even before the conflict is over, led by a consortium that supersedes multilateral institutions like the IMF/World Bank. We also delve into the demonstration effect of the sanctions imposed on Russia on other potential antagonists. In relation to that, the reach and scope of the weaponisation of the USD is discussed. We then move on to the issues of the moment, global inflation spike direction of Fed policy, recession risks, and debt overhang, with an interlude on digital currencies. A tour de force.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

CL Lien, avid mountaineer and ultra-marathon runner, and Singapore General Manager of Gojek, an e-services platform, joins Kopi Time to discuss managing the business through a wide range of challenges and disruptions. We talk about the driver-partner model and the various dimensions around that. Lien sheds light on how Gojek managed through the pandemic and how the business is shaping up presently, especially in light of rising fuel prices and interest rates. We touch on the imperative to find green solutions to transportation and logistics, and the balance between embracing innovation and automating jobs away. Lien brings empathy and social realism to decision-making and strategy, a great leadership trait.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our guest to mark Kopi Time’s 75th episode is Tan Su Shan, Group Head of Institutional Banking at DBS. In a wide ranging chat, we talk about how her business is dealing with the various challenges associated with the conflict in Ukraine and the pandemic. Su Shan walks us through the approaches to managing credit risk and emergency measures deployed in these contexts. We then delve into the role of data and digitalisation in transforming banking and finance, especially in helping clients keep pace with a range of disruptions. We then talk about stakeholder accountability and green finance, especially the role technology can play in the latter. The looming topic of rising inflation and interest rates is discussed next, with the balance between rising rates helping the bottom line initially, but then those higher rates also manifesting in higher credit risks. Su Shan recognises that to deal with unavoidable complexity and volatility, the key is to have an agile team that thrives on open communication. It is this trust in her team that makes her optimistic about her business outlook.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sol Magaz, Partner, Life Sciences and Healthcare in EY, joins Kopi Time to discuss her area of expertise. We begin by discussing  how the sector reacted and adjusted to the pandemic, both in the West and here in Asia. Sol explains the disruptions and innovations through the use of advanced data analytics and practices that allowed for vaccines and therapeutics to be developed in record time. We focus on the digital legacy of this crisis, whether it is through tele-diagnostics or tele-therapeutics, or through synthetic trials. We then talk about other mega trends in the industry and the role of Asian countries in the global innovation space. We touch upon the leap-frog aspect of digital transformation in healthcare, where people in rural areas can get access to healthcare through their smartphones, care that was previously only provided when and if hospitals were built nearby. We end by discussing the soaring cost of healthcare and ways to address them from public and private angles. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Manik Bhandari, CEO and Founder of Vulcan AI, an Artificial Intelligence company that focuses on building safety and productivity solutions, joins Kopi Time. He begins by providing an overview of the tech start-up scene in Singapore, describing how the public sector, through various initiatives, nudges entrepreneurs to develop profitable solutions that are good for the society. Manik’s firm’s focus is on deploying the power of big data and artificial intelligence in agriculture, transportation, workplace safety, elder care, etc. These are areas with room for innovation, but also entail deep ethical considerations on the line between profit and good. He offers his insights on the local talent pool, the best way to enhance tech skills, and the way entrepreneurs should use Singapore’s ecosystem as a launching pad for expanding in the region or globally. Manik points out that tech does not only mean coding and engineering, with numerous high value added jobs that require a much wider range of soft and hard skills. It’s a call to action to tech immersion, but with an ethical lens. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Vandana Hari, Founder & CEO of Vanda Insights, a Singapore-based provider of global oil markets macro-analysis, returns to Kopi Time to shed light on the extraordinary volatility in the energy markets. She covers it all, from the current supply/demand dynamic to Russia’s role in the energy markets, from alternative source of supply to the various logistical and geopolitical constraints at play, the near term outlook, which is grim, and the legacy of this crisis. Critical insights. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jonah Blank, senior visiting research fellow with the National University of Singapore, and formerly South and Southeast Asia Policy Director for Joe Biden in the US Senate, joins Kopi Time for a deep dive on contemporary geopolitics. We devote the first half of the podcast on Ukraine, spanning Putin’s motivation, risk of regional spillover, impact of sanctions, and possible end-game scenarios. Jonah makes astute observations on the complexities and historical context at play, while acknowledging the exceptional uncertainty that lies ahead. We then move on to Russia-China matters, including the intersection of strategic interests and cooperation on payments and energy/commodity trade. Jonah then offers a somewhat inside-the-beltway perspective on competition/rivalry between China and the US. We conclude by North and South East Asia’s dilemmas in this context.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Razeen Sally, Associate Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, joins Kopi Time to discuss trends in regional and global trade. We begin with the latest on RCEP and CP-TPP, with emphasis on the key gainers, the gaps in the agreements, role of China and the US, and the potential impact on the region. Prof Sally points out that CP-TPP is a true 21st century deal, covering critical topics such as data, intellectual property, and services, but its outlook is hazy with the US political environment not being conducive to trade deals. In contrast, RCEP may have less teeth, but it is more likely to be implemented. We then move on to the geopolitical and internal considerations for the US and China on matters of free trade and open markets. We discuss new mercantilism, Singapore’s role as a global city in the years of geopolitical struggle ahead, and the various associated scenarios. Plenty of food for thought. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mark Sobel, US chairman at OMFIF, discusses US economy and Fed policy, Biden administration's trade stance, German and Chinese growth models, and IMF's focus. Insightful analysis on global macro and international finance.