Rational Security

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by the long absent Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:“Next Fear in Jerusalem.” This week, Israel’s Knesset voted to abolish the “reasonableness doctrine” that had allowed its courts to review administrative decisions by the executive branch—a revolutionary move that triggered unprecedented protest around the country and a wave of resignations throughout the armed forces and other corners of the country. What is the significance of this change? And what does it mean for the future of Israeli democracy?“Rio Grandstanding.” The Biden administration sued the state of Texas this week for installing barriers across the Rio Grande river, purportedly to stymie the flow of unlawful immigration. Texas, meanwhile, maintains that it has the right to take these measures as part of its sovereign authority as a state. Who has the better of these arguments, and what does it tell us about the state of the law and politics surrounding immigration in the United States?“Gone Fishing.” Despite months of revelations regarding ethical shortcomings by its members, the Supreme Court has thus far resisted efforts to install stronger accountability mechanisms. But earlier this week, the Senate Judiciary Committee adopted a measure (along party lines) that would force the Court to do so by directing it to adopt a Code of Ethics. Is this the right approach?For object lessons, Alan recommended that other weekend blockbuster, the new Mission Impossible movie. Quinta gave her (slightly qualified) endorsement to the Barbie movie. Scott wholeheartedly recommended the true winner in this year’s weird movie sweepstakes, the Dungeons & Dragons movie. And Natalie broke the movie streak to join the chorus of praise for the Libby app (hooray public libraries!) and to endorse Mirasa baby clothes, both of which she found a new appreciation of on family leave. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott got together to NOT talk about that ONE big story that's not quite ripe yet. (You know the one. It involves sandwiches.) But they did chat through some of the week's other big national security news, including:“Against the Grain.” Russia backed out of the Turkey-facilitated Black Sea Grain Initiative this past week, which had allowed much needed Ukrainian grain to arrive in markets, largely in the developing world. Now not only is that avenue cut off, but Russian forces are attacking grain facilities in Odessa, threatening the global food supply. How does this brutal act fit into Russia’s global strategy? And how should the United States and its allies respond?“It’s a War on War.” The culture war is now taking on actual war, as House Republicans have passed a National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) laden with provisions that target Defense Department policies relating to abortion, DEI, and LGBTQ+ issues — measures that are certain not to make it through the Democrat-controlled Senate and may end up putting the annual bill at risk of not being passed at all. How big is the risk of such an impasse? What could it mean for U.S. national security?“Coups are Like Pancakes.” Earlier this week, the New York Times published a report about how former officials in the Trump administration are declaring the first Trump administration a mulligan and outlining plans to dramatically expand presidential power and purge the executive branch if and when Trump returns to the White House for a second time. How seriously should we take these proposals? And what would they mean for democracy if implemented?For object lessons, Alan plugged the most unlikely Netflix documentary, “Tour de France: Unchained.” Quinta noted Haaretz's entirely unprecedented story about Israel's inability to get cultural artifacts that it had lent to the Trump administration back from Mar-a-Lago where they appear to have somehow ended up. (The report is unclear on whether they are being kept in the bathroom or ballroom.) And Scott got back in the cocktail game by flagging the brilliantly weird (and somewhat ominously named) cocktail, the "Growing Old and Dying Happy is a Hope, Not an Inevitability.” Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Ravi Agrawal, Editor in Chief of Foreign Policy Magazine, to talk through the week’s big natsec news, including: “Pledge Week.” In a sign of strength, NATO held its annual summit in the capital of Vilnius this week, just kilometers from Lithuania’s border with Belarus. But those hoping to join the club have gotten mixed receptions, with NATO members securing a clear path for Sweden to join the alliance without presenting a clear way forward for embattled Ukraine. What did we learn about the state of the alliance from this week’s historic meeting?“Cluster Ruck(us).” Late last week, the Biden administration made the controversial decision to provide U.S. cluster munitions—a type of weapon that many U.S. allies have banned by treaty, due to concerns about civilian casualties—to its ally Ukraine. Is it the right move? And what might it mean on the battlefield—and after the war is over?“Needling and Threads.” Mark Zuckerberg appears to have finally gotten under the skin of tech billionaire Elon Musk, as his recently launched competitor to Musk’s beleaguered Twitter, Threads, launched last week and soon secured over 100 million users. Has Twitter finally met its match? And what will Threads and other competitors mean for the future of the information (and disinformation) economy? For object lessons, Alan went back to his college roots and endorsed the music of banjo virtuoso Bela Fleck. Quinta celebrated the weirdness of the Barbie nine-dash-line controversy. Scott urged listeners to check out Kim Stanley Robinson’s sci-fi masterpiece, the Mars Trilogy. And Ravi plugged the Foreign Policy Live video and podcast series he hosts for a weekly fix of smart thinking about the world. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott sat down to talk over the week's post-Independence Day national security news, including:“Oy Revolt.” Israel launched a major military operation aimed at uprooting terrorist bases in the refugee camp outside the city of Jenin in the West Bank this week. But as is so often the case, the operation not only proved deadly for Palestinian civilians but has become a point of controversy in the international community. What does this operation say about Israel’s security strategy? “Nationwide Disjunction.” On July 4, a federal judge in Louisiana issued a nationwide injunction ordering the Biden administration not to engage with social media platforms over First Amendment protected speech, arising out of complaints about its handling of COVID-19 information (or misinformation). What is the basis for this order, how realistic is it, how sustainable is it, and what does it tell us about the weird legal dynamics surrounding this set of issues at the moment?“A la Modi.” Indian President Narendra Modi is having a moment. This week he is sitting down with Chinese and Russian leaders, hosting a virtual face-to-face of the Shanghai Cooperative. This just a week after he was feted by President Biden and Congress here in Washington, D.C. What are we to make of India’s new global prominence?For object lessons, Alan once again celebrated the virtues of Libby and recommended John Lewis Gaddis's classic biography of legendary diplomat George F. Kennan, “George F. Kennan: An American Life,” as listening fodder. Quinta lamented the death of Audm and cursed its replacement. And Scott gave another audiobook recommendation for fans of U.S. diplomatic history: George C. Herring's “From Colony to Superpower.” Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by their colleague and think-tank neighbor, Russia/Ukraine expert Eric Ciaramella, to talk over the week's big news, including:“Going All (Prigozh)in.” Yevgeny Prighozin, leader of the mercenary Wagner Group, went all in this past week, marching his troops into Russia and halfway to Moscow for the stated purpose of removing Russia’s military leadership, only to abruptly halt and accept exile in Belarus instead. What does this mean for the conflict in Ukraine—and future of the Putin regime?“Lost at Sea.” In a busy week of news, one story has gotten surprisingly little attention: the tragic sinking of an overcrowded smugglers’ boat off the coast of Greece that claimed the lives of hundreds of migrants. What does this incident tell us about the dynamics of the migrant crisis in the Mediterranean—and how the world views it?“Moore, Moore, Moore! (How do YOU like it?)” The Supreme Court issued decisions in three major cases this past week, including addressing the much-discussed Independent State Legislature Doctrine in Moore v. Harper. What did the Court decide, and what will these decisions mean?For object lessons, Scott flagged that Lawfare has a new website, now located at www.lawfaremedia.org! Alan recommended the new sci-fi think-piece "The Mountain in the Sea" by Ray Nayler. Quinta endorsed Mohsin Hamid's book "Exit West" as a meditation on borders and crossing them. And Eric urged listeners to check out the epic guitar riffs of the Tuareg music collective Tinariwen.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by UVA Law Professor Paul Stephan to talk through the close-calls in this week's national security news, including:“Xi’s All That.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Beijing this past week, for a long delayed sit-down with President Xi Jinping to try and de-escalate the two superpowers’ tense relationship. Was this meeting a smart move or a giveaway? And what should we make of President Biden calling the Chinese leader a “dictator” shortly after Blinken’s return?“Adverse REPOssession.” The question of what to do with the $300 billion in Russia-related assets frozen by the United States and its allies has reemerged, with members of Congress recently introducing a new version of the REPO Act that would seize those assets and make them available as reparations for Ukraine, among other purposes. Is seizure the right way to handle these assets? What challenges and risks might such a dramatic step encounter?“Robo Joe.” President Biden joined a summit of leaders in the AI industry this week as part of his administration’s ongoing effort to seriously engage the policy challenges raised by AI technology. But what are the realistic prospects for regulation? And what form should it take?For object lessons, Alan recommended the new Apple comedy “Platonic.” Quinta doubled-down on the TV recommendations with the stage play-turned-movie about leaks in the intelligence community, “Reality.” Scott urged listeners to check out Gil Scott-Heron’s classic 2010 final album “I’m New Here,” and two phenomenal reimaginings: “We’re New Here” by Jamiexx and “We’re New Again” by Makaya McCraven. And Paul recommended the new book “The Lock-Up: A Novel” by John Banville. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare Legal Fellow Anna Bower fresh from the Miami court system to discuss the week's yuge national security news story—and one more for good measure:“Aileen, Aileen, Aileen, Aileen! Please don’t take this case just ‘cuz you can.” Former President Donald J. Trump was arraigned in federal court on Tuesday, the first step in a criminal trial expected to be overseen by none other than our old friend Judge Aileen Cannon. Will the charges for unlawful retention or obstruction of justice stick? And where is the trial likely to go from here?“It’s Arraignin’ Men.” The indictment of Trump in the Mar-a-Lago investigation is the first of its kind. But will it be the last? What else is the special counsel investigating? And are there other charges he might pursue, against Trump or others?“Xi Guevara.” Washington is up in arms over a spy station China is setting up in Cuba—or might have been operating for years. How big a deal is this? Are the reactions high-minded or hyperbole?For object lessons, Alan stuffed his chubby little face with Turkish delight. Quinta recommended the new climate change publication Heatmap. Scott urged listeners to try a version of one of his favorite recipes for farmer market season, the unlikely spicy mushroom larb. And Anna recommended that anyone who finds themselves in Miami in serious need of a coffee fix try out a colada coffee. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott braved the haze to talk through the week’s (very) big national security news stories, including:“Downstream Effects.” The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine promises a new wave of suffering and environmental devastation for Ukrainians living along the Dnipro River. Who is responsible? And what could the ramifications be?“He’s Off to Meet the Wizard, The Wonderful Wizard of Laws.” Over the past few weeks, there has been a steady drip of information about Special Counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into former President Trump, leading many to conclude that an indictment is on the horizon. What do we know about the state of the investigation? And where does it seem headed?“Party Animals.” The number of contenders in the 2024 Republican presidential primary has officially doubled, with new candidates like Chris Christie and Mike Pence presenting—or being unable to avoid—the legacy of Jan. 6, among other issues with the direction of the party under former President Trump. What does this mean for the shape of the race? And will it mean for the debate over democratic values?For object lessons, Alan urged listeners to check out the books of author Amor Towles, including his latest book “The Lincoln Highway.” Quinta passed along Tim Alberta’s devastating profile of (now former) CNN CEO Chris Licht in The Atlantic, which led to his recent fall. And Scott shared an invaluable set of resources his friend Aman put together for those considering jumping into what may be the greatest means of local transportation out there: eBikes!And here’s an article we mentioned in this week’s episode:Ben Wittes’s article in Lawfare on “How to Read a News Story About an Investigation: Eight Tips on Who Is Saying What” Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by their Brookings and Lawfare colleague Molly Reynolds to talk all things Congress in the week’s national security news, including:Shattering the Must-Pass Ceiling.” Earlier this week, President Joe Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy announced a deal on raising the debt ceiling, and thereby avoiding a potential financial catastrophe. The question now is whether they can sell it to enough members of Congress, where right-wing members of McCarthy’s caucus are promising to sink it. Will the deal make it through? And if not, what might come next?“Recep Tayyip Erdo-won.” After a close fought contest, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has emerged victorious from run-offs in Türkiye’s national elections, positioning him for a third term in office and a third decade in power. Does the reelection of the increasingly autocratic figure mean the further decline of Turkish democracy? And Türkiye’s flagging relationship with the West?“I’m Sorry, Dave. I’m Afraid That’s Not Regulation.” The head of several leading AI developers are actively urging Congress to regulate the industry—even as they continue to roll out new products to the public with untested capabilities. How seriously should we take this plea? And is it aimed at the right risk?For object lessons, Quinta shared Suzy Hansen’s excellent article on the recent earthquake in Turkey and its aftermath. Alan recommended the Pulitzer-winning “American Prometheus,” a biography of Robert Oppenheimer, which he is listening to on audiobook. Scott passed along an article about the “Succession syndrome” plaguing the world’s super rich and the elite rehab facilities helping to save them. And Molly shared the biggest story in gold bar news of the week, another possible corruption scandal involving Sen. Bob Menendez. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were reunited to celebrate Alan's gradual physical and mental decline, and to talk over the week in national security news, including:“Fear of Flying.” President Biden finally greenlit the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine, despite Russia’s warnings—just as the siege at Bakhmut signals a brutal new phase of the conflict. Is this the right move? Or is the risk of escalation too great?“Big Sky, Closed Borders.” Social media company TikTok is challenging a new Montana law barring its use in the state on a variety of constitutional grounds, including the First Amendment and foreign affairs preemption. Are there legal barriers to state efforts to regulate platforms like TikTok? Or does Montana have the better arguments?“Putting the ‘Err’ in Durham.” Special Counsel John Durham has released the final report of his investigation into the original of the FBI investigation into possible links between the Trump campaign and Russia. And while the report has some celebrating, it’s left many others scratching their heads.For object lessons, Alan shared his favorite birthday present: the brownie edge pan his wife got him. Quinta passed along a true D.C. story from a concert she saw the night before, involving The National and a former Deputy Solicitor General. And Scott recommended Patrick Weil's new book, “The Madman in the White House,” an eclectic biography of an eclectic biography: a psychoanalysis of Woodrow Wilson, written by Ambassador William Bullitt and Sigmund Freud, lost for more than seventy years and recently found.Here are links to some other pieces we mentioned in this episode:New York Times: "The Battle for Bakhmut"ClickHole: "Legal Bombshell: Mueller Flipped Trump’s Confidant’s Lawyer’s Friend’s Associate Gorpman (Who Could Testify Against Bleemer!) And It’s Not Even Lunchtime" Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.