The Trident

Professor Jacob Ware joins host Col. Dave Brown and Dr. Timothy Hoyt to discuss both current manifestations of and potential future episodes of election violence in this presidential election cycle. Quoting from one of Professor Ware's recent articles, "counterterrorism scholars and analysts have predicted for [some time] that the 2024 presidential election would provide a particularly volatile flashpoint for election violence. The near-assassination of Trump demonstrates the accuracy of these concerns—but they are only part of the story."The conversation ranges from how political rhetoric framed in existential terms drives these outcomes, the staggering percentages of the U.S. polity that feel violence might be necessary to fix U.S. political problems, and identifies potential target orientations before, during, and after the election. This timely discussion focuses on the growth and significance of both realized and potential political violence in our country as we move into this important election season, and beyond.Articles/Reference:Election Violence Is Already in Full Swing, J. Ware, Lawfare, 22 Sep 2024Opinion: Trump assassination attempts are just the beginning. Imagine what is coming after the election, J. Ware & C. Clarke, L.A. Times, 17 Sep 2024How Bad Will Political Violence in the U.S. Get? B. Hoffman & J. War, Foreign Policy, 28 Jun 2024Preventing U.S. Election Violence in 2024, J. Ware, CFR, 17 April 2024Political Violence Becomes America's New Norm - But is Still Shocking, A. Zurcher, BBC, 15 Sep 20242 Virginia Guardsmen Are Running a Rural Anti-Government Militia, S. Beynon, Military.com, 5 Sep 2024Could Civil War Erupt in America?, R. Agrawal, Foreign Policy, 29 Aug 2024 (video)Iran Hack Illuminates Long-Standing Trends—and Raises New Challenges, R. DiResta, Lawfare, 26 Aug 2024Two Ex-Marines Sentenced for Terror Plot to Attack Power Grid, N. Slayton, Task & Purpose, 27 Jul 2024FBI Probing Trump Rally Shooting as ‘Domestic Terrorism’ as RNC Opens, Al Jazeera, 15 Jul 2024Guests:Timothy D. Hoyt, Ph.D. – Co-HostSenior Professor at the U.S. Naval War College’s Strategy and Policy Department. Professor Hoyt holds the John Nicholas Brown Chair of Counterterrorism and Academic Director of the Advanced Strategist Program. Publications include articles on the war on terrorism in South Asia, the limits of military force in the global war on terrorism, military innovation and warfare in the developing world, and the impact of nuclear weapons on recent crises in South Asia. He is currently working on a book on American military strategy in the 21st Century, and a study of the strategy of the Irish Republican Army from 1913-2005.Jacob WareResearch fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), where he studies domestic and international terrorism and counterterrorism. Together with Bruce Hoffman, he is the author of God, Guns, and Sedition: Far-Right Terrorism in America. In addition to his work at CFR, Ware is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, where he teaches a class on domestic terrorism, as well as at DeSales University. He also serves on the editorial boards for the academic journal Studies in Conflict & Terrorism and the Irregular Warfare Initiative at the Modern War Institute at West Point, and was a spring 2024 visiting fellow at the University of Oslo's Center for Research on Extremism.

In this special episode, on the occasion of the 140th Anniversary of the U.S. Naval War College, we take a break from the annals of Irregular Warfare and focus on the historical legacy and significance of this storied institution. Viribus Mari Victoria: or from the Latin (Victory thru Sea Power) is the motto of the college, and Dr. John Hattendorf and Dr. John Maurer join host COL Dave Brown as they reflect on the oldest continuing institution of its kind in the world. The Naval War College is a national treasure, and quoting its founder, Admiral Stephen Luce, its legacy and task today, remains to; “broaden an officer’s views, extend his mental horizon on national and international questions, and give him a just appreciation of the great variety and extent of the requirements of his (or her) profession.”Reference:Sailors and Scholars - The Centennial History of the U.S. Naval War College by John B. Hattendorf, B. Mitchell Simpson, III, John R. Wadleigh. Newport, R.I. : Naval War College Press ; 1984Guests:John B. Hattendorf, D.Phil., D.Litt., L.H.D., F.R.Hist.S.Professor Emeritus, and former Ernest J. King Professor of Maritime History from 1984 to 2016, Professor Hattendorf also served as Chair of the College’s Advanced Research Department, Chair of the Maritime History Department, and Director of the Naval War College Museum. A former Surface Warfare Officer, he earned degrees in history from Kenyon College, Brown University, and the University of Oxford. He is the author or editor of more than 50 books, including "Sailors and Scholars," and the "Oxford Encyclopedia of Maritime History."John H. Maurer, Ph.D.The Alfred Thayer Mahan Distinguished University Professor of Sea Power and Grand Strategy at the college. He also served as the Chair of the Strategy and Policy Department, where he led a major reform of the College’s curriculum on strategy. He is a graduate of Yale University and holds a Ph.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. He is the author or editor of books examining the outbreak of the First World War, naval rivalries and arms control between the two world wars, and a study about Winston Churchill’s views on British foreign policy and grand strategy. He is a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), and served as executive editor of Orbis: A Journal of World Affairs. He also serves on the Academic Board of Advisers of The International Churchill Society, and has served on the Secretary of the Navy’s advisory committee on naval history.

Marking the 23rd anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, guests Dr. Tim Hoyt and Dr. Craig Whiteside join host Col. Dave Brown as they revisit their policy roundtable 2019 article, “Retrospect and Prospect: On Endless War,” and continue their discussion and analysis of not only how American thinking and counter-terrorism efforts have evolved, but that the simmering threats of Al-Qa'ida and the Islamic State still deserve continued monitoring.Articles:Policy Roundtable: 17 Years After September 11, R. Evans et al, TNSR, 11 Sep 2018Non-state campaigning: Islamic State’s guerrilla warfare doctrine, C. Whiteside, et al, Jul 2024The Persistent Threat of Global Terrorism, P. Brookes, GIS Reports, 4 Apr 2024Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, Office of DIA, 5 Feb 2024The Terrorism Warning Lights Are Blinking Red Again, G. Allison & M. Morell, Foreign Affairs, 10 Jun 2024Where Do We Stand with Al-Qaeda and ISIS? International Salafi Networks in 2024, A. Byers, Small Wars Journal, 16 Jun 2024‘ISIS Isn’t Done With Us’: Arrested Tajiks Highlight US Fears of Terror Attack on US, K. Lillis & J. Campbell, CNN, 14 Jun 2024The Islamic State: Background, Current Status, and U.S. Policy, Congressional Research Service, May 2024Guests:Timothy D. Hoyt, Ph.D.Senior Professor at the U.S. Naval War College’s Strategy and Policy Department. Professor Hoyt holds the John Nicholas Brown Chair of Counterterrorism and Academic Director of the Advanced Strategist Program. Publications include articles on the war on terrorism in South Asia, the limits of military force in the global war on terrorism, military innovation & warfare in the developing world.Craig Whiteside, Ph.D.Professor of National Security Affairs at the U.S. Naval War College’s resident program at the Naval Postgraduate School. He is a senior associate with the Center on Irregular Warfare and Armed Groups, and a fellow at the International Centre for Counter-terrorism – The Hague, and George Washington's Program on Extremism. Whiteside’s current research focuses on the doctrinal influences on the leadership of the so-called Islamic State movement and its evolving strategies. He is a former U.S. Army officer with combat experience in the Middle East.

Commodore Adrian Fryer (Ret.) brings 31 years of Royal Navy expertise, particularly on Persian Gulf security, while Evan Curt serves as Deputy Commissioner for Maritime Affairs for the Marshall Islands, focusing on maritime security management. They delve into threats in the Strait of Hormuz, discussing Iran's tactics, including the use of UAVs and maritime coercion. The conversation also covers historical conflicts, regional naval dynamics, and the economic impacts of rising tensions on global shipping routes and energy flows.

In conjunction with the 2024 Maritime Symposium: Exploring Our Maritime Strategies II, guests Capt. Joe Baggett, Nadwa Al-Dawsari, and Evan Curt join host Col. Dave Brown to discuss the Houthi attacks on global shipping vessels and U.S. warships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, in the Red Sea. Listen to this episode to gain an overview of the threat to this critical maritime region.Articles:DIA Report on Houthi Attacks and Pressure on International Trade, USNI News, 13 June 202465 countries affected by Houthi attacks in Red Sea, including Iran, A. Helou, Breaking Defense, 13 Jun 2024Maritime Terrorism Is on The Rise Whether We Notice it or Not, The Diplomatic Courier, 23 May 2024Ending the Houthi Threat to Red Sea, N. Al-Dawsari, Casey Cooms, et al, American Enterprise Institute, 26 Mar 2024IntelBrief: Iran and the Houthis Issue New Threats to Commercial Shipping, The Soufan Center, 26 Mar 2024Escalating Houthi attacks could affect 90% of world trade, ABC News, 21 Feb 2024Guests:Nadwa Al-DawsariA veteran researcher, conflict analyst, and policy advisor, Nadwa Al-Dawsari has 20 years of experience in Yemen and the Middle East. She is a Nonresident Scholar at the Middle East Institute (MEI) and a Fellow at the Center on Armed Groups. She advises policymakers, donors, and humanitarian organizations, and her insights are widely published by the top think tanks in the United States and Europe. In her previous roles, Nadwa served as a senior conflict advisor to the World Food Program, a Yemen Country Director at the Center for Civilians in Conflict, the founding Director at Partners Yemen, a MENA advisor at Partners Global, and a Senior Program Manager at the National Democratic Institute. Nadwa’s research focuses on Yemeni and regional conflict dynamics, including the impact of U.S. foreign policy, internationally led peace efforts, counterterrorism, and aid on regional stability, amidst the rise of non-state armed actors and proxy warfare.Capt. Joseph Baggett, USNCommanding Officer of the U.S. Navy’s Surface Warfare School and former senior staff officer for MOC-D C5F. Capt. Baggett served on a number of U.S. naval vessels including the USS Klakring (FFG 42); USS Stout (DDG 55); USS Barry (DDG 52); USS Anzio (CG 68); He also was commanding officer of the Destroyer USS Truxtun (DDG 103) and the Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Monterey (CG 61). Shore tours include service on the staff of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command / U.S. 5th Fleet as lead exercise planner in Future Plans; lead requirements officer for the Littoral Combat Ship - Mine Warfare Mission Package, at the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations; and the operations officer for the Deployable Training Division on the Joint Staff (J7); Most recently he served as chief of staff for USNAVCENT / C5F and the MOC-D. He currently serves as the Commanding Officer of Surface Warfare Schools Command (SWSC).Evan CurtDeputy Commissioner of Maritime Affairs, Republic of the Marshall Islands. In 2012, Mr. Curt joined International Registries, Inc.’s Maritime Services Group as Maritime Security & Investigations Coordinator and in 2015 was promoted to Ship Security Manager. In 2021, Mr. Curt was promoted to Vice President, Maritime Security. In this role, Mr. Curt is responsible for issues relating to the ISPS Code and related maritime security issues and initiatives including piracy and armed robbery against ships, maritime terrorism, stowaways, contraband smuggling, and maritime cyber risk management. He serves as a delegate to many maritime security working groups coordinated and supported by shipping industry associations, NATO, coalition naval forces, and the IMO. Mr. Curt earned his M.A. in Maritime Security from Coventry University, his M.B.A. from Arizona State University, and his B.A. in Business and International Studies from Virginia Polytechnic Institute. Mr. Curt is a certified ISO 9001:2008 Lead Internal Auditor and ISPS Code Security Officer.

In anticipation of CIWAG’s 2024 Maritime Symposium: Exploring Our Maritime Strategies – II, scheduled for June 24-25, Guest Dr. Ian Ralby joins host Col. Dave Brown to discuss the two great maritime straits in the Middle East. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf currently share several things; both are under threat and both have tremendous implications related not only to global shipping, but by extension, the entire global economy.Listen to this episode to gain an overview of the threats to these two critical maritime regions. Join us for more in-depth discussion, at our Maritime Symposium 24-25 June, by registering here.Articles:Maritime Terrorism Is On The Rise Whether We Notice It Or Not, The Diplomatic Courier, 23 May 2024IntelBrief: Iran and the Houthis Issue New Threats to Commercial Shipping, The Soufan Center, 26 Mar 2024Escalating Houthi Attacks Could Affect 90% of World Trade, ABC News, 21 Feb 2024Guest:Ian M. Ralby, Ph.D. is a globally recognized expert in maritime law and security, especially addressing evolving threats, maritime strategy, and the global maritime economy. In addition to being founder and CEO of I.R. Consilium, providing advice and assistance on maritime and resource security, he is also a Fellow at the Center on Maritime Strategy in partnership with the Navy League, and an affiliate of several institutions including the U.S. Naval War College, the Defense Institute of International Legal Studies, and the Institute for Security Governance. He previously spent 6 years as an Adjunct Professor of Maritime Law and Security at the U.S. Department of Defense’s Africa Center for Strategic Studies, and served 5 years as a subject matter expert on Maritime Crime for the United Nations Office on Drugs and the Global Maritime Crime Program.Selected Publications

Guests Dr. Lawson Brigham and Dr. Rebecca Pincus join host Col. Dave Brown and co-host Dr. Walter Berbrick to discuss the growing importance of the Arctic Sea as an area of economic resources, Trans-Arctic shipping routes, and a potential zone of international security concerns. This episode will touch upon items relating to the Arctic Council, Arctic development, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine War, and a new era of peace and security in the region. Tune in to hear our participants’ thoughts on threat activity in the High North, along with the need for increased strategic considerations and updated U.S. policy directions.Articles:New Challenges for the Bering Strait, L. Brigham, USNI Proceedings Vol.150/5/1,455, May 2024.Polar Points No. 27 | New Era of Arctic Cooperation, L. Brigham & R. Pincus, Wilson Center, 4 Apr. 2024.360° View of Policies Needed to Secure Shipping Chokepoints, M. Kennedy, J. Macaron, Wilson Center, et al. (R. Pincus, co-author), 13 Feb. 2024.The IMO Polar Code: Safety and Environmental Protection for Polar Waters, L. Brigham, USNI Proceedings Vol.150/1/1,451, Jan. 2024.Agency Challenges and Implications with a US Extended Continental Shelf, L. Brigham, Wilson Center, 19 Dec. 23.Polar Institute Director Rebecca Pincus on 'What Is Strategic Competition?', R. Pincus, Wilson Center, 5 Jan. 2024.Arctic Militarization and Russian Military Theory, M. Petersen & R. Pincus, Orbis, Volume 65, Issue 3, 2021, Pages 490-512.Security and geopolitics in the Arctic: The Increase of Hybrid Threat Activities in the Norwegian High North, G. H. Gjorv, Hybrid CoE, March 2024.400+ Allied, Joint Special Operations Forces Secure the Arctic, M. Carey, DVIDS, 14 Mar. 2024.Co-Host:Walter Berbrick, Ph.D. Senior national security executive, strategist, and advisor with two decades of experience leading teams in policy, intelligence, military and academic communities at the highest levels of government. He currently serves as an analyst in the War Gaming Department in the U.S. Naval War College, and was a previous professor at the college. Walter has held national security roles at the State Department and Pentagon and served for 10 years in the U.S. Navy.Guests:Lawson W. Brigham, Ph.D. Global Fellow in the Wilson Center's Polar Institute in Washington, DC. He is a researcher at the University of Alaska Fairbanks and a Fellow at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy's Center for Arctic Study & Policy. Captain Brigham was a career Coast Guard officer and commanded four cutters including the icebreaker Polar Sea on Arctic & Antarctic expeditions. During 2004-09 he was chair of the Arctic Council's Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment. He is a graduate of the Coast Guard Academy and earned his PhD at Cambridge University. Dr. Brigham is a Council on Foreign Relations member and a former member of the National Academies Polar Research Board.Rebecca Pincus, Ph.D. Director of the Polar Institute at the Wilson Center, and previously on the faculty at the U.S. Naval War College, where her research focused on Arctic security and geopolitics. Dr. Pincus also worked in the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy, as an Arctic and Climate Strategy Advisor. A Fulbright Fellow in Iceland, conducting research on Arctic states and security, she was previously on the faculty at the Coast Guard Academy and worked on polar policy for the U.S. Coast Guard, at the Center for Arctic Study and Policy. Widely published and a contributing author for the 5th National Climate Assessment, she has also testified before Congress and the U.S.-China Commission on security and defense in the polar regions.

Guests Dr. Colin Clarke and Raphael Parens join host Col. Dave Brown and co-host Dr. Christopher Faulkner to discuss the Wagner Group’s rise and fall, as well as what’s happened to the group since the death of its leader in August 2023. Private military companies (PMCs) have been around for decades, but Russia’s use of these private military entities has become an increasingly prominent feature of its overall foreign policy, and the Kremlin has made extensive use of them across the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, and Ukraine. One of the most well-known of these PMCs in security circles is the infamous “Wagner Group,” which burst on the international scene in 2014, but became increasingly visible after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.Articles:Wagner Group: Where Are They Now?, C. Clarke, C. Faulkner & R. Parens, FPRI, 29 Nov 23Commentary: “Who Thinks Wins”: How Smarter U.S. Counterterrorism in the Sahel Can Pay Dividends for Great Power Competition, C. Faulkner, R. Parens & M. Plichta, CTC Sentinel, Apr 23 – Vol 16 – Issue 4How Russia’s Wagner Group Is Fueling Terrorism in Africa, C. Clarke, Foreign Policy, Jan 25.After Prigozhin: The Future of the Wagner Model in Africa, C. Faulkner, R. Parens & M. Plichta, CTC Sentinel, Sept 23 – Vol 16 – Issue 9Mercenary Shocks: What the War in Ukraine Will Eventually Mean for Africa?, R. Parens, WOTR, 17 Feb 23Niger’s Pivot to Moscow: What’s Next for US Engagement in Africa?, R. Parens, C. Faulkner & M. Plichta, FPRI, 5 AprThe West Needs to Prepare for the ‘Next Wagner’ in Africa, C. Faulkner, R. Parens & M. Plichta, WPR, 20 Jul 23Guests:Colin P. Clarke, Ph.D., Director of Research and Senior Research Fellow at The Soufan Group (TSG), an intelligence and security consulting firm based in New York City. He is also an Associate Fellow at the International Centre for Counter Terrorism (ICCT) - The Hague, and a non-resident Senior Fellow in the Program on National Security at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). Prior to joining TSG, Clarke was a professor in the Institute for Politics and Strategy at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, PA and a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. He appears in the media frequently to discuss global security, conflict, and terrorism, and is the author of several books, including After the Caliphate: The Islamic State and the Future Terrorist Diaspora.Raphael Parens, Fellow in FPRI’s Eurasia Program and an international security researcher focused on Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. He specializes in African security, paramilitary groups, and Eurasian security. Raphael has been published in Foreign Affairs, West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center (CTC) Sentinel magazine, War on the Rocks, and FPRI. His work was recently published in a French-language anthology, Les défis sécuritaires en Afrique. He has been cited in the U.S. Congressional Testimony, and he has been interviewed for a variety of pieces on the Wagner Group.

Guests Dr. Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware join host Col. Dave Brown and co-host Dr. Timothy Hoyt to discuss the modern growth of Far-Right terrorism in the United States; its definitions and distinctions, historical roots, major groups, recruitment, connections to U.S. military services, international expansion, and policy options in confronting these emerging militant movements.Articles:God, Guns, and Sedition - Far-Right Terrorism in America, B. Hoffman & J. Ware, Columbia University Press, Jan 2024Why the Far-Right Terrorist Threat Is Often Misunderstood and Underestimated, B. Hoffman & J. Ware, CFR, 26 FebThe Urgent Mission to Counter Military Extremism, B. Hoffman & J. Ware, U.S. NEWS, 19 Jan 2024How the United States Became a Leading Exporter of White Supremacist Terrorism, B. Hoffman & J. Ware, Foreign Affairs, 19 Sept 23The Terrorist Threats and Trends to Watch Out for in 2023 and Beyond, B. Hoffman & J. Ware, CTC Sentinel, Nov/Dec 2022, Vol 15, Issue 11.Guests:Bruce Hoffman, Ph.D. Shelby Cullom and Kathryn W. Davis senior fellow for counterterrorism and homeland security at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). He has been studying terrorism and insurgency for almost half a century. He is a professor at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, and professor emeritus of terrorism studies at the University of St Andrews; and the George H. Gilmore Senior Fellow at the US Military Academy’s Combating Terrorism Center. He is the author of a number of books including Inside Terrorism, 3rd edition.Jacob Ware: Research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), where he studies domestic and international terrorism and counterterrorism. He was previously a research associate for counterterrorism at CFR. In addition to his work at CFR, Ware is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, where he teaches a class on domestic terrorism. He also serves on the editorial boards for the academic journal Studies in Conflict & Terrorism and the Irregular Warfare Initiative at the Modern War Institute at West Point.

Guests Jada Fraser and Dr. Scott Edwards join host Col. Dave Brown and co-host Dr. Curtis Bell to analyze the continuing and growing need for broad and comprehensive maritime collaboration to protect shared commerce and increase security across the vastness of the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific.Articles:The Quad, AUKUS, and I2U2 formats: Major lessons from mini-laterals; J. Fraser, M. Soliman, 28 Jun 23An Allied Coast Guard Approach to Countering CCP Maritime Gray Zone Coercion; J. Fraser, 29 Mar 23Prospects for the Quad Coast Guards to Cooperate Toward Implementation of the Free and Open Indo- Pacific Vision; J. Bradford, K. Koga, S. Edwards, 12 Jun 23Fragmentation, Complexity and Cooperation: Understanding Southeast Asia’s Maritime Security Governance; S. Edwards, April 2022Surrounding the Ocean: PRC Influence in the Indian Ocean; D. Baruah, 18 Apr 23The Indo-Pacific Strategy: 2 Years Later; U.S. Dept of State, 14 FebThe Indian Ocean Strategic Map, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Freq Updated.Guests:Curtis Bell, Ph.D. – Associate Professor and Director of the Maritime Security and Governance Staff Course at the U.S. Naval War College. He has worked on five continents and presented to audiences including the African Union and United Nations. His work has been featured in The New York Times, Washington Post, Economist, several academic journals. He is also the founder of Stable Seas, and developer of the Maritime Security Index.Jada Fraser: Graduate student in Asian Studies at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, where she also serves as the Editor-in-Chief of the Georgetown Journal of Asian Affairs. Ms. Fraser recently studied Japanese in Tokyo and served on an internship with US Indo-PACOM command. She is an author in her own right on aspects of countering China maritime coercion and particularly security alliance partnering in the Pacific.Scott Edwards, Ph.D.: Lecturer at the University of Reading and Research Fellow at the Yokosuka Council on Asia Pacific Studies. Dr. Edwards’ research and publication interests center on Southeast Asia’s maritime issues and the building of maritime security governance, within the Indo-Pacific. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Birmingham, and was formerly a postdoctoral research associate at both the University of Bristol and at the University of Leeds.