Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Alexandra Scaggs is a senior writer at Barron's covering financial markets with a special emphasis on bond markets, and she previously wrote news and commentary for the Financial Times and for Bloomberg. Alexandra joins the show today to talk about the current state of bond markets and what it means for the economy. David and Alexandra also discuss corporate debt, the inversion of the treasury yield curve, and the lasting impact of the modern monetary theory debate. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/04292019/bond-markets-and-macroeconomics Alexandra's Twitter: @alexandrascaggs Alexandra's Barron's profile: https://www.barrons.com/authors/8576 Related Links: *Negative-Yielding Bonds Top $9 Trillion as Growth Worries Return* by Adam Haigh https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-14/negative-yielding-bonds-top-9-trillion-as-growth-worries-return David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Andrew Park is a senior editor at S&P LCD and is one of the foremost experts on collateralized loan obligations and the leverage loan market. Andrew also writes daily on what's going on in the collateralized loan obligations (CLO) market and his data is the basis for most of the reporting on this topic in the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and by many policymakers. He joins the show today to talk about CLOs and their implications for the financial system and, more generally, the economy. David and Andrew also discuss the leveraged loan market, the differences between CDOs and CLOs, and the Fed's most recent rate hikes. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/04222019/andrew-park-loans-financial-system-and-economy Andrew's Twitter: @apark_ Andrew's Forbes profile & archive: https://www.forbes.com/sites/spleverage/people/andrewparksp/#18bc9eb1102d Related Links: *Wall Street's Billionaire Machine, Where Almost Everyone Gets Rich* by Tom Metcalf, Tom Maloney, Sally Bakewell, and Christopher Cannon https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-collateralized-loan-obligations/ *U.S. Leveraged Loan Market: Plenty of Risk, But Not Systemic* by Beth MacLean https://www.pimco.com/en-us/insights/viewpoints/us-leveraged-loan-market-plenty-of-risk-but-not-systemic/ David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Eric Lonergan is macro hedge fund manager, and economist, and a writer. He has written for Foreign Affairs, the Financial Times, and has authored the book *Money (The Art of Living)*. More recently, Eric has also co-authored a new book called *Angrynomics*. He joins the show today to talk about how to improve policymakers' responses to recessions. David and Eric also discuss helicopter drops, dual interest rates, and how governments can make monetary policy more direct. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/04152019/how-respond-recessions Eric's Twitter: @ericlonners Eric's blog: https://www.philosophyofmoney.net/blog/ Related Links: *Money: The Art of Living* by Eric Lonergan https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/money/486535FC2BE6ADB342A82A668584AE71 *Fixing the Euro Zone and Reducing Inequality, Without Fleecing the Rich* by Eric Lonergan and Mark Blyth https://hbr.org/2015/01/fixing-the-euro-zone-and-reducing-inequality-without-fleecing-the-rich David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Yair Listokin is a professor of law at Yale Law School and is the author of a new book titled, *Law and Macroeconomics*. He joins the show today to talk about the book as well as some of his new work. David and Yair also discuss sovereign wealth funds, the legal limits of central banks, and how to expand fiscal policy while making it more effective. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/04082019/law-and-macroeconomics Yair's Yale Law School profile: https://law.yale.edu/yair-listokin Related Links: *Law and Macroeconomics: Legal Remedies to Recessions* by Yair Listokin http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674976054 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Bryan Cutsinger is an economist affiliated with Angelo State as well as Texas Tech University and recently published an article titled *Seigniorage in the Civil War South*. He joins the show today to talk about this article, the monetary history of the Civil War, and the economics of Seigniorage. David and Bryan also discuss how both the North and the South financed the war and why the South made some counterintuitive decisions in how they conducted monetary policy. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/03292019/civil-war-and-economics-seigniorage Bryan's website: https://www.bryancutsinger.com/ Bryan's George Mason profile: https://economics.gmu.edu/people/bcutsing Related Links: *Seigniorage in the Civil War South* by Bryan Cutsinger and Joshua Ingber https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0014498318300470 *The Gold Standard as a Rule: An Essay in Exploration* by Michael Bordo and Finn Kydland https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0014498385710194 *Financial Failure and Confederate Defeat* by Douglas Ball https://www.amazon.com/Financial-Failure-Confederate-Defeat-Douglas/dp/0252017552 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Paul Tucker is a 33-year veteran of the Bank of England where he served as both a member and deputy governor of the Monetary Policy Committee. Currently, Paul is a senior fellow at Harvard and a chair at the Systemic Risk Council. He has also recently authored a book, *Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State* and joins the show today to discuss talk about it. David and Paul also discuss central bank independence and justifications for the existence of a regulatory state as well as Paul's "principles for delegation" criteria. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/03252019/paul-tucker-central-bank-independence-and-unelected-power Paul's website: http://paultucker.me/ Paul's Harvard University profile: https://ces.fas.harvard.edu/people/001970-paul-tucker Related Links: *Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State* by Paul Tucker https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11240.html David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Chapters: 00:00:00-Intro 00:00:22-Skip Intro 01:02:26-Outro

James Broughel is a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center and an adjunct professor of law at George Mason University Law School. James specializes in state and federal regulatory procedures, cost-benefit analysis, and economic growth. He joins the show today to talk about a recent symposium he hosted on the social discount rate; what it is, its uses, and the controversy surrounding how to measure it. David and James also discuss cost-benefit analysis in the regulatory world and why the social discount rate matters for policy. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/03182019/discounting-future James' Twitter: @JamesBroughel James' Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/james-broughel Related Links: *The Social Rate of Time Preference and the Social Discount Rate* by Mark Moore and Adam Vining https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/moore_and_vining_-_mercatus_research_-_a_social_rate_of_time_preference_approach_to_social_discount_rate_-_v1.pdf *The Appropriate Measure of the Social Discount Rate and Its Role in the Analysis of Policies with Long-Run Consequences* by David Burgess https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/burgess_-_mercatus_research_-_the_appropriate_measure_of_the_social_discount_rate_and_its_role_in_the_analysis_of_policies_with_long-run_consequences_-_v1.pdf *The Unsettled Matter of Discounting the Future* by James Broughel https://www.mercatus.org/publications/regulation/social-discount-rate/unsettled-matter-discounting-future *Equity or Efficiency? The Battle for the Soul of Benefit-Cost Analysis* by James Broughel https://www.mercatus.org/publications/regulatory-analysis/equity-or-efficiency-battle-soul-benefit-cost-analysis Amazon link to James' former band *Levy*: https://www.amazon.com/Levy/e/B001LHXCE2/ref=dp_byline_cont_music_1 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Ryan Avent is an economics columnist with The Economist magazine and is a previous guest of Macro Musings. He joins the show today to talk about some of his recent columns including work on hyperinflation, the Green New Deal, and Fed policy. David and Ryan also discuss the growing popularity of Modern Monetary Theory, the Fed's dovish change in direction, and why hyperinflation is so devastating to a nation's economy. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/03112019/hyperinflation-and-mmt Ryan's Twitter: @ryanavent Ryan's Economist profile: http://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/ryan-avent/ Related Links: *Hyperinflations Can End Quickly, Given the Right Sort of Regime Change* by Ryan Avent https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/01/31/hyperinflations-can-end-quickly-given-the-right-sort-of-regime-change *Taking the Fed at its Word: Direct Estimation of Central Bank Objectives using Text Analytics* by Adam Shapiro & Daniel Wilson https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2019-02.pdf David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Michael Strain is the director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. Previously, Michael worked in the Center for Economic Studies at the U.S. Census Bureau and in the Macroeconomics Research Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He joins the show today to talk about recent developments in U.S. economic policy and some of his work on that topic. David and Michael also discuss the consequences of rising populism, MMT's impact on tax policy, and the issues Americans should be most worried about. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/03042019/populism-mmt-and-billionaires Michael's Twitter: @MichaelRStrain Michael's AEI profile: https://www.aei.org/scholar/michael-r-strain/ Related Links: *Economic Shocks and Clinging* by Michael Strain and Stan Veuger https://ideas.repec.org/p/aei/rpaper/1004842.html *Wealth Inequality in the United States Since 1913: Evidence from Capitalized Income Tax Data* by Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman https://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/SaezZucman2014.pdf *Going to Extremes, Politics After Financial Crisis: 1870-2014* by Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick, and Christoph Trebesch https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2688897 *Modern Monetary Theory is a Joke That's Not Funny* by Michael Strain https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-17/modern-monetary-theory-would-sink-u-s-in-debt David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

George Selgin is the director of the Cato Institute's Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives, professor emeritus of economics at the University of Georgia, and a returning guest to show. For this special live episode, George joins Macro Musings to talk about his new book, *Floored: How a Misguided Fed Experiment Deepened and Prolonged the Great Recession.* David and George also discuss the liquidity coverage ratio, the Fed's transition from a corridor to a floor system, and the arguments for and against such an operating system. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/02252019/floors-and-corridors George's Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George's Cato Institute profile: https://www.cato.org/people/george-selgin Related Links: *The Fed Marches On* by George Selgin https://www.alt-m.org/2019/01/31/the-fed-marches-on/ *Balance Sheet News* blog post by Stephen Williamson http://newmonetarism.blogspot.com/2019/02/balance-sheet-news_21.html David Beckworth's Twitter thread on the Fed's decision to stick with a floor system: https://twitter.com/DavidBeckworth/status/1098956723501576192 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth