Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Jim Dorn is the Vice President for Monetary Studies at the Cato Institute and is the director of Cato’s annual Monetary Policy Conference. Jim has written widely on Federal Reserve policy and monetary reform, and has also edited more than 10 books including *The Search for Stable Money* and *The Future of Money in the Information Age*.  He joins the show today to talk about the history of monetary policy in Washington D.C. over the past four decades as well as some of his own recent work. David and Jim also discuss the issues covered at the most recent Cato Institute monetary policy conference, the recent mystery of low inflation, and Jim’s idea of an optimal monetary policy regime.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/10022019/jim-dorn-history-monetary-policy-washington-dc-and-its-future   Jim’s Cato Institute profile: https://www.cato.org/people/james-dorn   Related Links:   Registration for the Cato Institute Monetary Policy Conference: https://www.cato.org/events/37th-annual-monetary-conference   *The Search for Stable Money: Essays on Monetary Reform* edited by James Dorn and Anna Schwartz https://www.amazon.com/Search-Stable-Money-Essays-Monetary/dp/0226158292   *The Future of Money in the Information Age* edited by James Dorn https://www.amazon.com/Future-Money-Information-Age/dp/1882577523   *the Political Economy of Inflation* by Fritz Machlup https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/cato-journal/1983/5/cj3n1-3.pdf   *Has Monetarism Failed?* by Karl Brunner https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/803d/c8632bec26142f4c6b54f9e692c6acf2fe72.pdf   *Should the Fed Be Constrained?* by Jeffrey Frankel https://www.cato.org/cato-journal/springsummer-2019/should-fed-be-constrained   *Improving the Monetary Regime: The Case for U.S. Digital Cash* by Michael Bordo and Andrew Levin https://www.cato.org/cato-journal/springsummer-2019/improving-monetary-regime-case-us-digital-cash   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Gregg Gelzinis is a policy analyst at the Center for American Progress where he focuses his work on financial institutions, financial markets, consumer finance policy, and financial regulation more broadly, and he joins the show today to talk about these issues. David and Gregg also discuss the Financial Stability Oversight Council’s (FSOC) inception, the tradeoffs between financial regulation and capital requirements, how the Fed could improve its stress testing.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/09232019/gregg-gelzinis-reforming-fsoc-and-how-limit-future-financial-crises   Gregg’s Twitter: @FinGregg Gregg’s Center for American Progress profile: https://www.americanprogress.org/about/staff/gelzinis-gregg/bio/   Related Links:   *Strengthening the Regulation and Oversight of Shadow Banks: Revitalizing the Financial Stability Oversight Council* by Gregg Gelzinis https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/reports/2019/07/18/471564/strengthening-regulation-oversight-shadow-banks/   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Soumaya Keynes is the US economics editor for The Economist magazine, and she is also the co-host of *Trade Talks*, a podcast on all things trade, including trade policy, trade wars, and the future of trade. Soumaya joins the show today to talk about the general topic of trade, but also some other recent economic developments. David and Soumaya also discuss dollar dominance, the effects of trade policy on economic uncertainty, and the highlights, and major themes of the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/09162019/soumaya-keynes-trade-dollar-dominance-and-highlights-jackson-hole   Soumaya’s Twitter: @SoumayaKeynes Soumaya’s website: https://soumayakeynes.com/ Soumaya’s Economist profile: https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/soumaya-keynes/   Related Links:   *Soumaya Keynes Says Trump Trade Tweets Have Unleashed 'Bigger Uncertainty' Beyond Tariffs* https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/soumaya-keynes-says-trump-trade-tweets-have-unleashed-bigger-uncertainty-beyond   *Trade Talks Podcast* hosted by Soumaya Keynes and Chad P. Brown (PIIE) https://www.piie.com/trade-talks   *18th Street Singers Website* http://www.18thstreetsingers.com/   *Riders on the Storm* by Oscar Jorda and Alan M. Taylor https://www.kansascityfed.org/~/media/files/publicat/sympos/2019/20190806taylorjorda.pdf?la=en   *Discussion of “Riders on the Storm” by Oscar Jorda and Alan Taylor* by Kristin Forbes https://www.kansascityfed.org/~/media/files/publicat/sympos/2019/forbes_remarks_jh_2019_08_23.pdf?la=en   *Mind the Gap in Sovereign Debt Markets: The U.S. Treasury Basis and the Dollar Risk Factor* by Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig https://www.kansascityfed.org/~/media/files/publicat/sympos/2019/ak%20jacksonhole%20conference%20paper%20on%20sovereign%20debt%20markets%20krishnamurthylustig.pdf?la=en   *U.S. Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers* by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan https://www.kansascityfed.org/~/media/files/publicat/sympos/2019/jh_paper_final_sep6.pdf?la=en   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Alex Tabarrok is a professor of economics at George Mason University and holds the Bartley J. Madden Chair in Economics at the Mercatus Center. Alex has written widely on long run economic growth and joins the show today to talk about it. David and Alex also discuss how capital relates to economic growth, the impact of regulation on dynamism, and the important distinction between “catch-up” and “cutting edge” growth.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/09092019/alex-tabarrok-elements-economic-growth-and-decline-dynamism   Alex’s Twitter: @ATabarrok Alex’s Mercatus profile: https://asp.mercatus.org/alexander-tabarrok Alex and Tyler’s blog: https://marginalrevolution.com/   Related Links:   *Modern Principles of Economics* by Alex Tabarrok and Tyler Cowen https://www.macmillanlearning.com/college/us/product/Loose-leaf--Version-for--Modern-Principles-of-Economics-4E--FlipIt-for-Survey-of-Economics-Six-Months-Access-4E-Online/p/131909872X   *Is Regulation to Blame for the Decline in American Entrepreneurship?* by Alex Tabarrok and Nathan Goldschlag https://academic.oup.com/economicpolicy/article/33/93/5/4833996   *Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990* by Michael Kremer https://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~walker/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/kremer1993.pdf   *Why are the Prices so Damn High?* by Alex Tabarrok and Eric Helland https://www.mercatus.org/publications/healthcare/why-are-prices-so-damn-high   *The Value of Health and Longevity* by Kevin Murphy and Robert Topel https://www.nber.org/papers/w11405   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Judge Glock is an economic historian and a scholar at the Cicero Institute in San Francisco. Judge’s research is focused on the Great Depression, and he has recently published a paper on an important idea shaping Federal Reserve policy during this time; the Riefler-Keynes Doctrine.  He joins the show today to talk about this paper and the Great Depression.  David and Judge also discuss the key ideas behind the Riefler-Keynes Doctrine, how it differs from the Real Bills Doctrine, and how this relates to the Fed’s response to the Great Depression.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/09022019/judge-glock-riefler-keynes-doctrine-and-monetary-policy-during-great   Judge’s Twitter: @judgeglock Judge’s AIER profile: https://www.aier.org/staff/judge-glock   Related Links:   *The ‘Riefler-Keynes’ Doctrine and Federal Reserve Policy in the Great Depression* by Judge Glock https://read.dukeupress.edu/hope/article-abstract/51/2/297/137129/The-Riefler-Keynes-Doctrine-and-Federal-Reserve?redirectedFrom=fulltext   *Pressuring the Fed is No Surefire Electoral Solution, Says Economic Historian* by Frank Fuhrig https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/pressuring-fed-no-surefire-electoral-solution-says-economic-historian   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Thomas Hoenig was vice-chair of the FDIC from 2012-2018 and in the 20 years prior to that he was also president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank. Thomas is currently a distinguished senior fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University where he focuses on the long-term impact of the politicization of financial services, as well as the effects of government granted privileges and market performance. He joins the show today to talk about his career and some of the current issues in banking. David and Thomas also assess the effectiveness of quantitative easing, the advantages and disadvantages of opening up the Fed’s balance sheet to the public, and the debate between establishing an orderly liquidation authority vs a bankruptcy code.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/08262019/thomas-hoenig-federal-reserve-and-state-banking-us   Thomas’ Twitter: @tom_hoenig Thomas’ Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/people/thomas-hoenig   Related Links:   *"Enormous" Pressure in Next Recession for Wider QE Purchases, Former FOMC Voter Predicts* by Frank Fuhrig  https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/%E2%80%9Cenormous%E2%80%9D-pressure-next-recession-wider-qe-purchases-former-fomc-voter-predicts   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Chris Crowe is head of economic research at Capula Investment Management, a London-based hedge fund, where he covers global economics, primarily the G10 countries plus China. Chris was previously UK economist at Barclays and prior to that he worked at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He joins the show today to give us the perspective of a macroeconomist from inside a hedge fund on markets, Brexit, and other current events as well as some of his own research. David and Chris also discuss central bank independence, the overall economic impacts of Brexit, and the implications of Jay Powell’s testimony at the Humphrey Hawkins.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/08192019/chris-crowe-hedge-fund-perspectives-and-economic-implications-brexit   Related Links:   *Safe Asset Supply Failing to Meet Demand, Economist Crowe Says* by Frank Fuhrig https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/safe-asset-supply-failing-meet-demand-economist-crowe-says   *The International Impact of the Fed When the United states is a Banker to the World* by David Beckworth and Christopher Crowe https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/rulesforinternationalmonetarystability-ch2.pdf   *Central Bank Independence and Transparency: Evolution and Effectiveness* by Christopher Crowe and Ellen Meade https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2008/wp08119.pdf   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Aaron Klein is the director of the Center on Markets and Regulations at the Brookings Institution where, among other things, he focuses on financial regulations and real time payments. Aaron has written widely on real time payments and he joins the show today to talk about this issue, as they discuss the definition of real-time payments, how they could have a positive impact on limiting income inequality, and why the Fed is now interested in setting up its own real-time payments system.  David and Aaron also discuss banking reform after the recession, the shadow banking system, and why a lack of bank failures may be a worrying signal.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/08122019/aaron-klein-real-time-payments-and-financial-regulation   Aaron’s Twitter: @Aarondklein Aaron’s Brookings profile: https://www.brookings.edu/experts/aaron-klein/   Related Links:   *Is China’s New Payment System the Future?* by Aaron Klein https://www.brookings.edu/research/is-chinas-new-payment-system-the-future/   *Round One: What Role Should the Federal Reserve Play in Developing a Faster Payments System?* Symposium featuring James Angel, Aaron Klein and George Selgin https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/round-one-what-role-should-federal-reserve-play-developing-faster-payments-system   *Round Two: What Role Should the Federal Reserve Play in Developing a Faster Payments System?* Symposium featuring James Angel, Aaron Klein and George Selgin https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/round-two-what-role-should-federal-reserve-play-developing-faster-payments-system   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

In this special bonus episode of Macro Musings, David Beckworth joins Employ America and several other monetary policy enthusiasts on the day of the July FOMC meeting to discuss what would be an historic event –  the first interest rate cut executed by the Fed since December 2008, and the market reactions to this event.  In addition to their discussion of this eventual rate cut, David and the other Fed watchers also get a chance to talk about Judy Shelton’s nomination to the Fed Board of Governors, the significance and aftermath of the recent Humphrey Hawkins hearing, how the Fed’s decision to cut parallels the European Central Bank, and more.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/08072019/bonus-episode-watch-party-fed%E2%80%99s-historic-interest-rate-cut   Related Links:   Employ America’s home page: https://employamerica.org/   Sam Bell’s Twitter: @sam_a_bell Skanda Amarnath’s Twitter: @IrvingSwisher Sam & Skanda’s bios: https://employamerica.org/about/   Soumaya Keynes’ Twitter: @SoumayaKeynes Soumaya’s website: https://soumayakeynes.com/ Soumaya’s Economist profile: http://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/soumaya-keynes/   Ryan Avent’s Twitter: @ryanavent Ryan’s Economist profile: https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/ryan-avent/   Nick Bunker’s Twitter: @nick_bunker Nick’s Indeed profile: https://www.hiringlab.org/author/nbunker/   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Evan Koenig is a senior vice president and a principal policy advisor for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas where he has been since 1988. Evan joins the show today to talk about his time at the Fed and some of his research. David and Evan also discuss where the Federal Reserve’s review is going in the next six months, Evan’s preferred version of nominal GDP targeting, and how important the yield curve is relative to other credit indicators.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/08052019/evan-koenig-feds-review-period-monetary-regimes-and-yield-curves   Evan’s Dallas Fed bio: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economists/koenig.aspx Evan’s research profile: https://ideas.repec.org/f/pko435.html   Related Links:   *Like a Good Neighbor: Monetary Policy, Financial Stability, and the Distribution of Risk* by Evan Koenig https://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb13q2a3.pdf   *Credit Indicators as Predictors of Economic Activity: A Real-Time VAR Analysis* by N Kundan Kishor and Evan Koenig https://econpapers.repec.org/article/wlyjmoncb/v_3a46_3ay_3a2014_3ai_3a2-3_3ap_3a545-564.htm   *Methods of Policy Accommodation at the Interest-Rate Lower Bound* by Michael Woodford https://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2012/mw.pdf?sm=jh083112-4   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth