Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Martha Gimbel, executive director and co-founder of the Budget Lab at Yale, shares her insights on the impact of AI and trade wars on labor markets. She discusses the troubling gap in BLS data and its implications for economic analysis. Gimbel highlights the slow adaptation to AI in workplaces and the uncertainties about which jobs are most at risk. She argues for the continued importance of foreign language learning despite AI advancements. Additionally, she breaks down the economic effects of tariffs and the demand for US treasuries in a shifting global landscape.

Laurence Bristow, former staffer at the Reserve Bank of Australia and now Vice President at the Bank Policy Institute, shares invaluable insights on central banking. He compares the RBA’s restructuring with the Fed, highlighting the motivation for adopting a demand-driven system. Laurence explains the benefits of a flexible ceiling system that promotes interbank activity and market stability. He discusses the implications for U.S. monetary policy reforms, emphasizing lessons the Fed can learn from the RBA's experience in navigating reserve management.

Austin Campbell, digital assets advisor and founder of Zero Knowledge Group, dives into the evolving world of stablecoins. He discusses the implications of the GENIUS Act and the ongoing debate over interest payments on stablecoins. Austin also explores the future of Tether and regulatory models like skinny master accounts. He highlights how dollar-backed stablecoins influence currency choices globally and assesses the macro effects on financial systems, emphasizing the need for clearer regulations and innovative business models in low-rate environments.

Mike Bird, the Wall Street editor at The Economist and author of The Land Trap, dives into the intriguing history of land and housing. He discusses Abenomics and its disappointing results, the pandemic's housing price surge, and the unique characteristics of land as an asset. Bird highlights Wolf Ladejinsky's role in postwar land reforms in East Asia and connects land ownership to economic stability. He also examines China’s real estate model and the demographic challenges for both China and Japan, shedding light on the broader impacts on the global economy.

Lukasz Rachel, a former Bank of England economist and current assistant professor at University College London, dives into the nuances of modern macroeconomic policy. He examines secular stagnation and its impact on R-star, revealing how demographic and public-sector trends shape interest rates. Lukasz also discusses non-Ricardian fiscal policy, arguing that it complicates monetary dynamics and can lead to inflation. He emphasizes the need for better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to tackle these challenges effectively.

Tara Sinclair, a professor and chair at George Washington University and former U.S. Treasury official, dives into her innovative work on simulating Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings using AI. She discusses the significance of public economic data, the potential of AI in reshaping forecasting roles, and the creation of simulated FOMC personas, reflecting real committee dynamics. Insights on institutional design experiments and the implications of AI for monetary policy are also highlighted, showcasing a future where AI informs economic strategies.

Bryan Cutsinger, a monetary historian and assistant professor at Florida Atlantic University, dives deep into the dynamics of deflation and its historical context. He discusses the nuances between supply-driven and demand-driven deflation, highlighting how the latter can harm markets. Cutsinger draws parallels to the postbellum U.S. era, showcasing how strong economic growth persisted alongside deflation. The conversation also explores the potential of AI to spark productivity, while proposing reforms to help workers navigate these changes.

Will Roberds, an economist emeritus at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and Steve Quinn, a professor at Texas Christian University, dive into the fascinating history of the Bank of Amsterdam. They unveil the secrets of centuries-old ledgers, revealing how this early institution pioneered concepts like repo operations and active open market transactions. The discussion connects historical practices to today's central banking, exploring the impact of Amsterdam on global finance, stability, and wartime economics, while also highlighting lessons for contemporary monetary policy.

Jim Clouse, a veteran of the Federal Reserve with 36 years of experience, shares insights on pivotal moments in U.S. monetary history. He discusses the Fed’s evolution during crises like Y2K, 9/11, the Great Financial Crisis, and the COVID pandemic. Clouse examines the stigma around the discount window, critiques proposals to end interest on reserves, and explains the transition to increased transparency at the Fed. He also explores the implications of stablecoins and cashless payments on currency demand and Fed operations.

In this discussion, Manmohan Singh, a former IMF official and expert in financial markets, explores whether money still matters in today's economy. He examines the implications of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins and their regulation, revealing how it could reshape the financial landscape. Singh delves into the role of stablecoins in the Eurodollar market, shares insights on collateral shortages, and debates the future of banks versus fintechs. He also discusses how stablecoins might challenge central banks' control over money and the potential impacts on emerging markets.