The Cognitive Crucible

Contributor to Tablet Magazine, Jake Siegel, discusses the hoax of the century and the attempts by elites to control free speech. He reflects on the flawed approach to nation-building in Afghanistan and explores the exaggerated claims of collusion and social media infiltration. The podcast also delves into influence operations, technological homogenization, and the impact of AI on creative problem-solving.

This podcast episode features Meredith Wilson discussing the complexities companies face today, including Chinese export controls, the Russia/Ukraine War, ESG dynamics, and government policies. They also touch upon US international traffic and arms regulations, Disney's resiliency agenda, and research topics on corporate threat intelligence and risk in China and Russia. The episode offers book recommendations on political risk, reputation risk, and understanding AI's impact on society.

Marine Corps Maj Max Nauta discusses his Master's thesis on Multinational Operations in Strategic Competition. Topics include: US influence in Latin America and the Caribbean, gray zone activities of China and Russia, transparency and cooperation activities of US Forces, Special Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force, interdisciplinary perspectives, deployments to Central America, China's global engagement, AI and ML for narratives, and the influence of AI and machine learning on the social sciences.

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Christopher Paul and Mike Williams discuss the new Journal of Cognitive Security–a double-blind peer reviewed publication concerned with influence and protection from influence of large groups of media users and consumers both online and offline. Cognitive Security focuses on (1) the exploitation of cognitive biases in large public groups, (2) social influence as an end unto itself and (3) formality and quantitative measurement. The Journal of Cognitive Security will address the impact of the increasing volume and variability of information available to anyone with a handheld device, the speed with which information is replicated, spread, and processed to anyone with the means to access the internet-protocol driven world and the ubiquity of handheld telecommunications and the resulting interactions of those pressures on societal change. Resources: Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned #20 Christopher Paul on the Firehose of Falsehood #128 Matt Armstrong and Christopher Paul on the U.S. Information Agency and Foreign Policy Website: Journal of Cognitive Security Questions or comments please email Mike Williams: mwilliams@cogsecjournal.com Link to full show notes and resources https://information-professionals.org/episode/cognitive-crucible-episode-160 Guest Bio:  Michael Williams is a retired Army Information Operations officer.  Following his retirement in 2006, Mike became an advisor to the Information Operations policy office in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence then the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy and worked on Secretary Gates’ program review of IO among many other projects over a seven year period.  Since leaving his advisory position, he has become a Senior Analyst for Cognitive Performance Group which focuses on analyzing decision-making and developing models of expertise in support of training and leader development in DoD.  Mike was the Executive Director of IPA during its formative period and currently supports IPA’s efforts to build a new journal and the planning and execution of events for IPA members and the Cognitive Security community. Mike also owns a real estate brokerage in a small town in the Finger Lakes region of central New York where he makes his home. Dr. Christopher Paul is a Senior Social Scientist at the RAND Corporation. He also teaches in the Pardee RAND Graduate School. Christopher provides research support related to operations in the information environment, information warfare, counterpropaganda, cyber operations, and related policy to a range of Department of Defense and U.S. Government offices, organizations, and commands. His work has influenced defense doctrine and policy in the United States and internationally. Prior to joining RAND full-time in July of 2002, he worked at RAND as adjunct staff for six years. Chris received his Ph.D. in sociology from UCLA in 2001; he spent academic year 2001-02 on the UCLA statistics faculty.  About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain. For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org. Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn. Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.  

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, US Army MAJ Steve Schiavoni discusses his Master’s thesis from the US Army Command and General Staff College entitled: Lying, in Wait: Competitive Deception in the Indo-Pacific. The United States faces its stated pacing adversary, China, in competition in the Indo-Pacific region. As the Joint Force reorients, deception has re-emerged in updated doctrine as a competitive tool. The updated doctrine encourages the use of deception but provides little unclassified guidance on training or implementation of deception outside of tactical engagements. This thesis analyzes the foundations of strategic deception applied to the context of current US and Chinese competition in the Indo-Pacific region. Deception is modeled as a competitive wargame focused on the Indo-Pacific theater. Fundamental aspects of deception tied to US and Chinese strategic cultural lenses and objectives form the basis for the game’s model. Analysis of the wider concept of deception reveals challenges and opportunities for the US in employing strategic deception below the level of armed conflict. This thesis offers an avenue for training deception planning using an experiential learning method. Research Question:  Resources: Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned #146 Sebastian Bae on Gaming #90 Dave Acosta on Informationally Disadvantaged The Tao of Deception by Ralph Sawyer Lever of Power by Ralph Sawyer A Theory of Fun for Game Design by Raph Koster Counterdeception Principles and Applications for National Security by  Michael Bennett, Edward Waltz Information Warfare and Organizational Decision-Making by Alexander Kott Link to full show notes and resources https://information-professionals.org/episode/cognitive-crucible-episode-159 Guest Bio:  MAJ Steven Schiavoni commissioned in 2010 from Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology in Terre Haute, IN. He started service as an Infantry Officer in the Pennsylvania National Guard where he served as a rifle platoon leader and battalion mortar platoon leader. In 2016 he transferred to the Army Reserve and became a Functional Area 30 - Information Operations officer. Since then he has served and deployed in multiple roles including company commander, sensitive activities planner, and information operations planner. He is a graduate of Infantry Basic Officer Leader's Course, Maneuver Captain's Career Course, FA-30 Qualification Course, and Basic Airborne Course among others. He is currently part of the Information Advantage Scholars Program at the Army's Command and General Staff Officers Course. In his civilian life, MAJ Schiavoni works as a Department of the Air Force civilian conducting Defense Cyber Operations as part of the 412th Communications Squadron at Edwards Air Force Base, CA. About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain. For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org. Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn. Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, US Army Brian Godwin discusses his thesis: From Perception to Protection: Countering Cognitive Warfare in the U.S. Army. His study seeks to address the critical question of how the U.S. Army can protect the force against cognitive warfare, with a specific focus on understanding the strategies and tactics employed by China and Russia. It employs a qualitative comparative case study method, examining China’s cognitive warfare campaign during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s interference in the 2016 U.S. election. The study reveals significant gaps and limitations in the Army’s existing Doctrine, Training, Leadership and Education, and Policies (DTLP). These areas provide minimal defense against cognitive warfare, indicating a vulnerability of the force. In response to these findings, this thesis proposes several key recommendations to strengthen the Army’s resilience against cognitive warfare, including the prioritization of media literacy in Army training and education, revisions of DTLP to effectively counter cognitive warfare, the application of inoculation theory to boost psychological resilience, and the cultivation of active relationships with Joint, Interagency, Intergovernmental, and Multinational (JIIM) partners. Resources: Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned #29 Jan Kallberg and Stephen Hamilton on Force Protection in the Cognitive Domain Media Warfare: Taiwan’s Battle for the Cognitive Domain by Kerry Gershaneck Influence, New and Expanded: The Psychology of Persuasion by Robert Cialdini The Art of Insubordination: How to dissent and defy effectively by Todd Kashdan The Social Dilemma – Netflix Documentary Link to full show notes and resources Guest Bio:  MAJ Brian Godwin is a native of Tampa, Florida. Commissioned in 2011 from the University of Tampa in Tampa, FL, MAJ Godwin has served in a range of duty positions in both Field Artillery and Signal branches including Fire Direction Officer, Fire Support Officer, Special Operations Battalion S-6, Brigade S-6, Division Information Assurance Manager, Signal Advisor to Afghan forces in Helmand, Afghanistan, and as a Staff Officer in the NATO Communications and Information Agency in Mons, Belgium. He is a graduate of the Field Artillery Basic Officer Leaders’ Course, the Signal Captain’s Career Course, and Basic Airborne Course. He is currently an Information Advantage Scholar at the Army’s Command and General Staff Officer Course. MAJ Godwin's awards and decorations include the Bronze Star Medal (1 OLC), Meritorious Service Medal, Joint Service Commendation Medal, Army Commendation Medal (1OLC), National Defense Service Medal, Afghanistan Campaign Medal (2 Stars), Global War on Terrorism Service Medal, NATO Medal (1 Star), Combat Action Badge and Parachutist Badge. He also holds a Parachutist Badge from Germany. About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain. For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org. Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn. Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Paul Lieber and Janis Butkevics discuss their co-authored article: Searching for AI Best Practice in DoD: The Great Camp Divide and Lessons from A Commercial Setting. Paul and Janis assert that DoD AI strategy and execution must be thoughtfully considered and best practices from commercial and other lab-like environments at minimum must be observed and noted. There is simply no good means of calculating risk/reward for particular pathways involving AI adoption and process insertion without these steps. Research Questions: Referencing Marshall McLuhan's Understanding Media: The Extensions of Man, Paul Lieber suggests an interested student examine how does a specific social media environment/platform nuance - considering but not directly guided by content within - shape ultimate discourse, decision making and influence outcomes for a Target Audience? ("The Medium is the Message.") Where/how can AI-driven automation tangibly impact such outcomes...and what mass communication/social psychology theory can potentially explain such impact? Janis Butkevics asks the question: can large language models (LLM) craft emotionally resonant content on par with humans? Resources: Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned #9 Mike Jackson and Paul Lieber on Are We Our Own Worst Enemy? Searching for AI Best Practice in DoD: The Great Camp Divide and Lessons from A Commercial Setting by Paul Lieber and Janis Butkevics Introduction to Programmatic Advertising by Dominik Kosorin Link to full show notes and resources Guest Bios:  Dr. Paul Lieber is the Chief Data Scientist for Peraton's Cyber Mission Sector and Associate Research Faculty at UMD-ARLIS. In these roles, he shapes overall technology and strategic direction for a number of mission areas to include information warfare, cyber, and OSINT. His research emphasis focuses on the intersection of data modeling and decision making, specifically how to build valid and complex data systems to solve challenging problems. Dr. Lieber possesses nearly 100 combined peer reviewed publications, invited presentations and university lectures on this and related topics. Most recently, he co-led the Assessments Working Group for Phoenix Challenge 23-2. He is also on the Board of Directors for the Information Professionals Association. Mr. Janis Butkevics is a data analytics and planning professional with a strong passion for solving complex problems, collaboration, and innovation. His experience includes working in fast paced, multi-organizational environments towards national policy goals. Janis’ primary focus is the application of emerging web technologies, social media, quantitative analysis, machine learning, and long term planning. He has led and contributed to a vast array of projects to include: course development, instruction, operational framework design, cost-benefit analysis, network analysis, social media analysis and analytics, long term planning, regression analysis, risk analysis, and programming. About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain. For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org. Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn. Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, US Air Force MAJ Chris Mesnard discusses his Master’s thesis from the US Army Command and General Staff College entitled: Describing and Forecasting Relevant-Actor Attitudes, Actions, and Behaviors via Narrative-Based Decision-Making. Planners at all echelons seek to transition the present state into one more desired and advantageous. This study explores the topic of transitioning to desired future states through the use of measurable story elements which can influence relevant actor attitudes, actions, and behaviors. Story is a well-researched cognitive process with unique elements enabling planners to use story elements as a framework in operational planning and assessment. Additionally, during the discovery phase of this study, the research identified a doctrinal gap in how joint planning doctrine describes the term narrative. The key takeaway from this study is that the mind thematically aligns stories and their elements into narratives, demonstrating a cognitive process that assists in an individual’s understanding of reality and the possible decisions which logically fit into that reality. Using the understanding of stories and their elements, planners can better describe and forecast narrative-based decision-making exhibited through relevant actor attitudes, actions, and behaviors. Resources: Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned #89 Ajit Mann and Paul Cobaugh on Narrative Watch and listen to the research presented here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6Xx3WMwQOE Communication models Transactional communication Thesis placeholder YouTube link of thesis defense:  Decision making: Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow Gary Klein's Seeing What Others Don't Narrative and story: Kendall Haven's Story Smart RAND 2021 study on Command Narrative -- Doctrine: MCDP-8 Link to full show notes and resources Guest Bio:  Maj Christopher Mesnard received his BA in History in 2010 from The University of Texas at Austin where he also commissioned into the United States Air Force through the university’s Reserve-Officer Training Corps program. A career public affairs officer, Chris has advised Air Force and Joint Force commanders and their staffs at all levels of command from tactical up through geographic and functional combatant commands. His major milestone experiences include communicating and planning on behalf of the Department of Defense’s nuclear enterprise at both wing and headquarters assignments, multilateral missions on the Korean Peninsula and in Japan, U.S. Southern Command missions in Central America, U.S. Northern Command and multi-agency response to COVID-19 and later vaccine distribution, air refueling and multi-national air operations in U.S. European and Africa Commands, and support to U.S. Transportation Command’s household goods contract renewal.  Chris is a 2015 graduate of George Washington University with a Masters in Strategic Public Relations. He has also attended the NATO Information Operations course at Oberammergau Germany; the Joint Intermediate Public Affairs Course at Fort Meade, MD; and the Joint Enabling Capability Command’s Joint Planner’s Course at Naval Station Norfolk, VA. Currently, Chris is finishing his Masters in Military Art and Science at the U.S. Army’s Command and General Staff College.  Chris has an interest in topics ranging from human cognition and decision making, strategy and plans development, public communication, and the symbiotic civil-military relationship that uniquely strengthens the U.S. About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain. For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org. Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn. Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Luke Shabro, Deputy Director of the US Army Mad Scientist Initiative and Senior Futures Analyst, discusses first principles thinking and the Mad Scientist initiative. Luke spearheads a community of action that continually explores the future through collaborative partnerships and continuous dialogue with academia, industry and government. Through this initiative, the Army shapes future multi-domain (i.e., Land, Air, Sea, Cyber, and Space) operations in its role as a thought leader in the future of warfare. The program consists of an All Partners Access Network (APAN) community of action, a monthly on-line speaker series, conferences with world class experts at the Nation’s premier academic institutions, and now, this blog — envisioning the Operational Environment! Research Question: Luke Shabro suggests an interested student examine the dynamics and characteristics and consequences related to brain-computer interface (BCI). Resources: Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned #33 August Cole on FICINT and the Cognitive Warfighting Domain #8 Doowan Lee on COVID Disinformation US Army Tradoc Mad Scientist Laboratory Luke Shabro LinkedIn Think Like a Rocket Scientist: Simple Strategies You Can Use to Make Giant Leaps in Work and Life by Ozan Varol The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order by Rush Doshi Link to full show notes and resources https://information-professionals.org/episode/cognitive-crucible-episode-155 Guest Bio: Luke Shabro is a futurist, writer, intelligence analyst, and Deputy Director for the Army Mad Scientist Initiative and Senior Futures Analyst at U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command G-2. He served for eight years as an active duty Intelligence Specialist in the United States Navy, deploying aboard the USS JOHN C STENNIS (CVN-74) and instructing basic and intermediate Navy intelligence students. He has worked extensively in all-source intelligence, counterinsurgency, counterterrorism, global security, and futures analysis. He graduated with a BA in International Studies from Old Dominion University and an MA in Political Science from Virginia Tech. He is also a volunteer soccer and flag football coach. About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain. For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org. Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn. Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Todd Leventhal recaps his many years of experience countering disinformation with the U.S. Information Agency and the U.S. Department of State–including AIDS disinformation, child organ trafficking rumors, exaggerated fears about depleted uranium, and Iraqi propaganda and disinformation during the 1991 Gulf War. Todd recently worked with the Global Engagement Center and he suggests ways for the Department of State to improve public diplomacy in the 21st Century. Resources: Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned #49 Matt Armstrong on the Smith-Mundt Act #105 Tom Kent on Persuasion in the Developing World #128 Matt Armstrong and Chris Paul on the U.S. Information Agency and Foreign Policy #106 Mike Taylor on the Global Engagement Center The need to up our game in countering disinformation by Todd Leventhal Soviet Active Measures in the "Post-Cold War" Era 1988-1991: A Report Prepared at the Request of the United States House of Representatives Committee on Appropriations by the United States Information Agency June 1992 Link to full show notes and resources https://information-professionals.org/episode/cognitive-crucible-episode-154 Guest Bio: Todd Leventhal has some 25 years of experience in countering Russian, Soviet, Iraqi, and other disinformation, conspiracy theories, and false stories, mainly for the U.S. Information Agency and the U.S. Department of State, starting in 1987.  He was the sole or main U.S. government official countering disinformation from 1989 to 1996, 2002 to 2010, and in 2015. He received an “Exceptional Performance Award” from the Director for Central Intelligence for his contributions to the 2003 White House report Apparatus of Lies: Saddam’s Disinformation and Propaganda 1990-2003. After retiring from 33 years of U.S. government service in May 2018, Mr. Leventhal served as a Senior Counter-Disinformation Advisor in the Russia Division of the State Department’s Global Engagement Center (GEC) from late 2018 to April 2022, where he wrote 14 GEC Counter-Disinformation Dispatches, which summarize lessons learned about disinformation and how to counter it based on the experiences of frontline counter-disinformation practitioners. About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain. For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org. Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn. Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.