Exponential Wisdom

Peter and Dan discuss the oncoming wave of 3D-printed homes, soon to grant us far cheaper, more accessible, and environmentally sound alternatives to traditional housing. Offering numerous implications across materials science, market competition and the wealth gap, Peter and Dan demonstrate how both the construction and real estate industries will experience monumental disruption in the coming decade. In this episode: Peter emphasizes the need to constantly experiment with emerging technologies and novel materials exiting the R&D stage, as well as the importance of integrating 3D printing into your own business.
 Dan analyzes his concept “don’t compete when you can collaborate,” explaining the benefits of seeking out and constantly building new partnerships. 
 Peter showcases the company New Story, an innovative nonprofit founded in 2015 that pioneers solutions to end global homelessness.

Peter and Dan discuss the first-order implications of artificial intelligence. As technologies like AR/VR, AI and blockchain converge to disrupt traditional business models and processes, countless tasks will become far easier, reducing business costs and time expenditures.   In this episode: Peter discusses the latest breakthroughs in augmented reality, validating his belief that AR will become ubiquitous by 2030. Dan emphasizes the importance of skills training, and justifies why AI will transform the education industry. Peter projects AI’s trajectory of becoming more and more knowledgeable. As data explodes in both quality and quantity, middlemen will no longer be needed in most industries.

With the rise of exponential health technologies, Peter and Dan investigate newly available business opportunities using their “first order implications” framework. When biotech advancements turn sickcare into healthcare, and science adds an additional 20-30 healthy years to our lifespans, what new markets emerge (and which ones disappear)? Peter and Dan discuss the implications to businesses, customers, and society as a whole. In this episode: Dan delves into the social implications of people having longer professional lives, predicting that mandatory retirement will be moved back by at least 10 years. Peter discusses education industry transformations that will result from people having 2-3 careers. Similarly, once people begin to have far more free time, implications within the travel, tourism, and entertainment industries will unlock new challenges and business opportunities. Peter forecasts our increased food demand over coming decades as people live longer. Consequently, he and Dan project a surge in the lab-grown meat market, which will lead to better-tasting, lower-waste, and far more environmentally sound food production.

Peter and Dan launch into a comprehensive update on space exploration. As governments and corporations alike pursue reusable spacecraft, extra-planetary manufacturing tools and cheaper launch systems, this discussion focuses on the remarkable initiatives of private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin, now eclipsing government capabilities in speed and scale. In this episode: Peter examines the primary reasons for which today’s space companies focus on reusable launch systems and landing large payloads on the Moon. Dan and Peter discuss how the human body reacts to long-term, zero-gravity environments, as well as the precautions needed when living on the Moon or in extra-planetary colonies. Peter describes three convergences that, while yet to materialize, will open trillion-dollar assets in space over the next few decades.

Peter and Dan discuss the transformation of construction and real estate, as solar energy, 3D printing, augmented reality (AR) and new materials science breakthroughs begin to permeate every facet of the way we design, construct and inhabit built spaces.   In this episode: Dan uses historical examples to demonstrate the notion that process has often defined the real estate and construction industries (think: the premade Sears house kits, which democratized home design for American consumers). He further teases the question: how will today’s explosion of versatile and autonomous construction methods redefine architecture and interior design? Peter depicts a future wherein homes are designed as both functional spaces and augmented reality canvases, unlocking virtual living for AR users. White walls might become the day’s scenery of choice; compact homes allow for multi-use efficiency; and sensor-embedded walls allow homeowners and office managers to monitor everything constantly. Dan and Peter agree on AI’s collaborative role in designing, beautifying, and optimizing human homes. Our new creative assistants, AIs will serve to both enhance our aesthetic and streamline energy-efficient construction.

Location. Location. Location. Physical proximity has long been the name of the game. Yet as autonomous vehicles, virtual offices, and gigabit connection speeds transform our everyday lives, real estate markets are about to experience the massive waves created by these disruptions. Peter and Dan discuss the implications for real estate as convergence reshapes how we live, work, and play. In this episode: Peter illustrates how today’s low-value, long-distance real estate becomes far more attractive as air taxis and autonomous vehicle fleets make physical distance immaterial. Dan discusses the legal ramifications as regulators attempt to catch up to technological advances, and entrepreneurs gain an unprecedented opportunity to participate in drafting new laws. Peter explores the critical role of AI: fast approaching (near) human-level intelligence, AIs will soon begin to replace middlemen across countless industries, disrupting traditional real estate brokers and personalizing our physical — and virtual — spaces.

Peter and Dan examine one of the most challenging decisions faced by serial entrepreneurs: when is the right time to kill a company? Illustrating firsthand stories of past company failures, they discuss the most tell-tale signs of dwindling passion and poor long-term prospects. If only plowing ahead out of obligation to investors, you might have reached the optimal time to kill an idea. Whether burning through cash with no profits in sight, or fast losing enthusiasm for a venture’s mission, these revelatory flags can help you pull the plug early and move on to stronger ventures. In this episode: Peter delves into the story of building Zero Gravity Corporation, his struggles with the FAA, and creative maneuvers for launch after 11 long years. Dan discusses the respective roles of excitement, disappointment, and fluctuating mental resolve in determining your commitment to an idea, and discerning when to let it go. Peter and Dan agree that a critical step in launching any startup involves testing your idea against the marketplace early. In a similar vein, Dan explains why he only talks to “check-writers” when determining the validity of an idea.

Peter and Dan discuss continuous education as critical in the 21st century to take advantage of new opportunities and develop new capabilities. With technology changing every month, week and even day, your agility as an entrepreneur depends on your ability to learn new skills and instantly apply this knowledge. In this episode: Peter talks about the fundamentally broken global education system and his belief that exponential technology will completely transform how we learn in the next decade. He gives an example of AI-driven education curating an AR experience, in which digital avatars have conversations with you to create the most impactful experience you’d never be able to have from reading a book. Dan and Peter agree the old system was not a system of inspiration or creativity, but a system of doing what you’re told. The new system will be customized education, where AI is helping people learn in the best ways for them. Peter talks about the gamification of learning and gives an example of an unemployed workforce playing games all day and learning. Once they master a certain level, an employer can offer then a job or a higher paying position.

Peter and Dan continue their hiring discussion with a focus on higher education and the ongoing debate of apprenticeships versus business school. As millennials represent more and more of the job market, should the next generation of leaders go into debt pursuing a degree or acquire business acumen through various forms of apprenticeship? In this episode: Peter talks about interviewing a recent employee who decided to get an MBA at Stanford Business school and his takeaways in a recent blog.  As an employer who has hired hundreds of candidates, Dan shares tips as we head towards a world where you can know anything you want, anytime you want. Peter and Dan discuss why the rapid rate of technological change, a booming job market, and the digitization of education are chipping away at the traditional graduate-level business program, as we’re seeing with the decline of graduate school admissions.

Peter and Dan discuss one of the biggest problems with the hiring process: most of the time, a job description doesn’t provide enough information to create a successful relationship between an employer and a new employee. In Episode 67, they shared best practices within their own companies; in this follow-up episode, Peter and Dan discuss a specific agreement that communicates expectations to a new team member. In this episode: Dan explains his dislike of team management meetings and why he developed a new tool called the 4x4. This thinking process helps you clarify and then communicate your expectations to team members. Peter talks about the importance of ensuring his team loves what they are doing and feels fulfilled, while still providing the support needed to meet company objectives. Dan shares a successful example of hiring a recent employee with a 4x4, and discusses how your organization can use this upfront communication tool for better results.