Net Assessment

Chris and Melanie sit down with Aaron Stein, chief content officer at War on the Rocks and co-author of a new report on Turkey’s new, more independent foreign policy. Why has Ankara changed its foreign policy course over the last few decades? What does this foreign policy mean for United States interests? How should Turkey’s NATO allies respond when it seems to act against the alliance? What might the upcoming elections mean for the Turkish-U.S. relationship? Chris is unhappy with some defenses of the Iraq invasion, Aaron praises those who worked so hard out of the spotlight to evacuate people safely from Afghanistan, and Melanie is impressed with some journalism at the one-year mark of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This episode's reading: https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/turkeys-more-independent-foreign-policy

Melanie, Zack, and Chris, survey the course of Russia’s brutal war of aggression in Ukraine at the one-year point, with a focus on a recent paper by RAND’s Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe. How did we get here? What key assumptions have been tested? And what does that mean for the future? How do U.S. and Ukrainian interests in this war align or conflict? Does a long war serve anyone’s interest? And what are the prospects that this war will end any time soon? Grievances for China’s mishandling of the balloon fiasco, and to Disney for bowing to the Chinese Communist Party’s implicit censorship. Attapeople to those negotiating a new Compact of Free Association with countries in the South Pacific, for the few smart voices trying to dial down the hysteria over balloons, and to those members of Congress hoping to repeal the 2002 Iraq war AUMF. This Episode's Reading: https://warontherocks.com/2023/02/one-year-of-war-in-ukraine

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate Frank Hoffman’s recent article in War on the Rocks about the broader implications of Russia’s war in Ukraine. They discuss whether defensive systems are dominant and how long Russia will take to recapitalize its forces, as well as what this means for future conflicts and U.S. posture globally. Chris warns that the United States is not learning from past conflicts, Melanie welcomes continued support for Hong Kongers, and Zack laments Turkey’s renewed opposition to Sweden’s entry into NATO. Episode Reading: https://warontherocks.com/2023/02/learning-lessons-from-ukraine-is-defense-dominant

Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to talk about a new assessment of President Biden’s foreign policy two years into his administration. Using “A Better Biden Doctrine” by Stephen Wertheim and Matthew Duss as the foundation, the team looks at how well Biden has kept the foreign policy promises he made on the campaign trail, whether he has made incremental or fundamental changes, and what he might be able to accomplish in the next two years. They also consider what policies progressives might hope are given more attention the rest of this term. Chris and Zack have complaints about negligent handling of classified materials by high level officials and the excuses for it, and Melanie gives a shout out to Canada for some new defense initiatives. Episode Reading: https://warontherocks.com/2023/01/looking-back-at-president-bidens-foreign-policy

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss whether it is possible, and wise, to try to stave off a conflict with China over Taiwan — possibly for a very long time. A recent article by Jude Blanchette and Ryan Hass urges policymakers to find ways to forestall conflict. But is it a mistake to presume that conflict with China is avoidable? Should the United States make peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait the government's overarching goal, or should Washington agree that at some point there will be military conflict, and do everything possible to prepare for that now? Or is there a bipartisan consensus in Washington that cannot be contained pushing for confrontation with China in general, and especially over Taiwan? Attapeople to outgoing members of Congress Elaine Luria and Peter Meijer, and to Taiwan for offering effective COVID vaccines to China. Grievances for China’s reckless and shortsighted COVID-19 policy, for Tik Tok spying on people, and for the Navy’s troubled littoral combat ship. Episode Reading: https://warontherocks.com/2023/01/debating-the-defense-of-taiwan

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate nuclear proliferation in Northeast Asia. Are Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling, North Korea’s advancing capabilities, and China’s nuclear modernization program likely to spur additional nuclear proliferation? How satisfied are South Korea and Japan with current U.S. nuclear extended deterrence guarantees? And what should policymakers in Washington do in response to questions about the U.S. nuclear umbrella? In their last show of 2022, Chris says goodbye to Twitter (at least for now). Melanie asks for a more serious debate about immigration. And Zack commends the work and collegiality of the think tank community. This episode's reading: https://warontherocks.com/2022/12/the-risks-of-nuclear-proliferation-in-asia

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to discuss Richard Fontaine's recent Foreign Affairs article on prioritizing national security threats. Why is it so hard for those in charge of the nation’s security to pick and stick to the most important national security priorities? How should the United States determine where scarce resources are allocated? If China is the nation’s main challenge, can the United States continue to expend resources at the current rate in Ukraine? Chris is concerned about people who are hoping a new civil war starts in Afghanistan, Zack is dismayed at those insisting that the United States openly side with those in China protesting the government’s lockdown and other policies, and Melanie has an attaboy for Dr. John Hamre, recipient of the Reagan Foundation’s Peace Through Strength award. This episode's reading: https://warontherocks.com/2022/12/making-hard-national-security-choices

Chris, Melanie, and Zack try to understand the U.S. government’s approach to global trade. Two successive presidential administrations have turned their backs on trade liberalization, and there is little enthusiasm in Congress for free trade – and a fair amount of outright hostility. For all the talk of “friendshoring” and building resilient supply chains, Washington's allies and partners seem mostly concerned about rising protectionism in the United States. If Washington is no longer leading the world on trade, who is? Or who will? Or is the United States trying to lead toward a particular type of trade, one that doesn’t benefit revisionist autocrats? And will that fly? Grievances for Joe Biden’s granddaughter, for getting married at the White House when the APEC summit was going on, to Ukraine and its supporters for falsely claiming an errant missile that landed in Poland was a deliberate Russian attack, and to incoming House Republicans planning a series of hearings designed to score political points. Attapeople for recent authors Will Inboden for his new book on Ronald Reagan, and Arthur Ross award winners Carter Malkasian and Mary Elise Sarotte, and an Atta Vice President to Kamala Harris for her planned trip to the Philippines. Episode Reading: warontherocks.com/2022/11/why-the-united-states-no-longer-leads-on-free-trade

Is the National Defense Strategy actually a strategy? Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate the Biden administration’s recently released National Defense Strategy. Do integrated deterrence, campaign, and enduring advantage add up to more than the sum of their parts? Does the unclassified version of the National Defense Strategy make any hard choices to connect ends and means? Melanie commends those U.S. service members who evacuated thousands of people from Afghanistan. Chris complains about incessant political advertisements ahead of the midterm elections. And Zack thanks his teammates from the Alliance for Securing Democracy. Episode Reading:  https://warontherocks.com/2022/11/debating-the-national-defense-strategy

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about the recently-released Biden-Harris National Security Strategy. Several months delayed, the document recognizes that the United States is in an intense competition with China and asserts that Washington will look for ways to cooperate with both allies and adversaries on important global challenges such as climate change. Does the NSS assess the threat environment correctly? How will the United States manage both competition and cooperation with adversaries? Is the U.S. doing what it must to “outmaneuver” China during this “decisive decade”? Chris is bothered that it is hard to have an honest debate about what the United States is doing in Ukraine, Zack discusses the legacy of Ash Carter, and Melanie is appalled that American military pilots have been selling their services to the Chinese military. Episode Reading: https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/assessing-the-national-security-strategy