Beyond Markets

In this monthly China update, our experts analyse if the big rally in China equities has legs, following last Tuesday's "bazooka" policy announcements from China's central bank. They also take a closer look at recent trading flows and discuss what trends can be expected in currencies and stocks.This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

The Chinese financial regulators recently announced a series of monetary measures with an aim of supporting the economy. In this podcast, we discuss how effective the policies are, whether this is just another bounce or if it marks the beginning of a sustainable rally, and what this means for investors.This podcast is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong for Julius Baer.

In this episode of The Week in Markets, we discuss the outlook of the US interest rate path after the larger-than-expected 50 basis points cut and the implications for different assets. We also comment on the recent bounce of the offshore Chinese equity market and our strategy around that.​This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head​ of Research Hong Kong for Bank Julius Baer.

At the much-anticipated US Federal Reserve meeting on 18 September 2024, the monetary policy easing cycle finally began in the US with an announcement of a 50 basis point rate cut. In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, and Mischa Anand, Julius Baer’s Head of Advisory in Zurich, talk to Helen Freer about the significance of the Fed’s latest interest rate decision, what it means for the economy and the implications for investors.00:39 – Introduction to the topic and the speakers01:10 – Was a 50bp cut by the Fed appropriate?04:06 – What does the rate cut mean for the economy and investors?08:53 – Given a recession is not our base case, what is our macroeconomic outlook?13:03 – What about the outlook for equities now that the Fed easing cycle has started?15:06 - Does this mean we’re likely to see volatility ahead?17:14 - Where does the Fed go from here?20:08 – How significant is the start of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle for other central banks and the rest of the world?23:07 - Closing remarksWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

We expect volatility in equity markets to remain elevated as we head towards the end of the year, amidst uncertainty around the upcoming US election, seasonal factors, and lingering fears of an economic slowdown. It therefore seems timely to look at what our analysts take into account when it comes to stock selection.In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, about how his team approaches the process of stock selection, what sectors they favour currently, and the subsectors that are set to offer good investment opportunities in the coming months.00:32 – Introduction to the topic and the speakers01:16 – Our approach to stock selection02:33 – Market Outlook into year-end 202404:13 – Information Technology: our preferences06:27 – Healthcare: more than just large-cap pharma09:06 – Industrials: focus on cyclical & structural growth opportunities11:22 – Opportunities across sectors12:01 - US election outcome - implications for stocks13:33 – Summary and conclusionWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Two weeks ago, the S&P 500 index had its worst week of the year on the idea that the economy was weakening. Last week was its best week of the year, on the idea the Federal Reserve might cut rates by 50 basis points rather than the traditional 25, when it meets this Wednesday. Expectations have changed following two articles in the Wall Street Journal raising the prospect for a 50 basis point cut, and comments from three former Fed officials who each made a case for a 50 basis point cut. In July, the consensus was looking for Q3 S&P 500 index annual earnings growth of almost 7%. Now it’s looking for just 4%. However, the pace of growth is expected to improve thereafter; to 11% in Q4, and 13% and 14% respectively in Q1 and Q2 of next year.

On Tuesday night, Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris faced off for the first time at the US presidential debate, each presenting two starkly differing visions for the country.Join Christian Gattiker, Head of Research and William Fong, Co-Head, Alternatives & Strategic Solutions Specialists Asia at Bank Julius Baer as they analyse the implications of each candidate's policy proposals, and how investors can navigate the potential shifts in the political landscape.1:15     The significance of the US presidential election3:29    How might Trump’s tariffs impact the economy?6:06   Trump’s energy policy and inflation8:18    Can the Fed keep its independence?9:34    Trump’s tax policy and potential deficit impact11:53    How can investors position in a Trump sweep?13:19    Harris’ tax policy and potential deficit impact15:37    Do price controls actually work?18:37    How might a Harris victory impact the economy?20:20    Why have bond markets not responded more significantly yet?21:38    What the polls are saying23:07    Predicting the outcome24:30    A very tight race

In this episode of Beyond Markets, we are joined by Nicolas de Skowronski, Head Wealth Management Solutions and member of the Executive Board, and Sonia Goessi, Head Region Switzerland and Europe and member of the Executive Board, to discuss Julius Baer’s 360-degree approach to wealth management and why it is important for everyone.

August employment data show a labour market that is continuing to cool, but not at an alarming rate. The three Federal Reserve officials spoke last week all hinted the impending rate cut cycle could be an aggressive one. But the futures market is still pricing a higher chance of a 25 basis point cut than a 50 basis point one at next week’s meeting. Most political analysts expect Vice President Harris to fare less well than former President Trump in this week’s debate, so there is more upside for her. But for the first time, renowned political statistician Nate Silver’s Electoral College model puts Trump ahead of Harris.

In this monthly China update, our experts analyse recent market movements and their implications for investors. They also discuss China’s property market, the evolving policy framework and its impact on Chinese households, the strengthening of the RMB and resulting currency trades, as well as the latest views on gold and Chinese government bonds.This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.