Beyond Markets

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts In this episode, we discuss what’s on the radar for us that could move the markets. It’s a week of waiting as 2nd quarter results start proper with US mega bank JP Morgan reporting results later in the week. We also learn about two super apps that could be on diverging paths.This episode is presented by Kelly Chia (Deputy Head of Research, Asia).

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts In this episode, we discuss key questions on investors minds. How much of this is a hype phase now? What is not yet obvious as an investment in AI? What will regulations do to AI? Are costs going to come down for AI such that there is money to be made? This episode is presented by Kelly Chia (Deputy Head of Research, Asia) and Reid Menge (co-PM for BlackRock’s Technology equity portfolios).

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts China consumption has been weak.  In the most recent Dragon Boat Festival holidays, tourism revenue is still lower than in 2019.  A few other consumption indicators have also been soft.  The revenge spending does not seem to have happened and the rebalancing of China to a consumption driven economy is making slow progress.  What may turn this around?The Chinese yuan has been falling in view of weak growth and also the outlook of lower interest rates against the US.  That clearly has hurt sentiment in the Chinese equity market as well.  While Chinese households have a lot of deposit money, it has not benefited the stock market so far. In this episode, Richard Tang, the China strategist and Head Research Hong Kong and Hao Hong, Partner and Chief Economist of GROW discussed on China consumption and economy, whether money is being reallocated from China to Japan, and the outlook for the RMB going forward.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts In this episode, we discuss what’s on the radar for us that could move the markets. It’s a gap week with independence day celebrations but lots of macro data out later in the week.This episode is presented by Kelly Chia (Deputy Head of Research, Asia).

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts In this week's episode, Yaw Shin Wong , Equity Specialist, recaps happenings in global markets. The Fed's "hawkish pause" could curb some optimism in the market but uptrends remain intact. Latest economic data out of China suggests the economic recovery momentum is fading which has led investors searching for alternatives. The Japanese market has come up as a strong alternative due to renewed corporate reforms.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts How are affluent consumers spending their money? Where are the most expensive cities for living well? And what must you consider when protecting your purchasing power? John Franklin, editor-in-chief of Julius Baer’s Global Wealth and Lifestyle Report 2023, reveals the key findings and more in this episode.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts In this episode of The Week in Markets, we recap the latest FOMC action and elaborate why this may be a good time for bond investments.  In China, the focus question is whether the rally has legs.  We discuss our three-part framework in evaluating the Chinese market and what we think may be the best strategy in the current market rebound.This episode is presented by Richard Tang, the China strategist and Head Research Hong Kong.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts 2023 was meant to be the year in which we witnessed a major cool-down but this has not played out quite as expected. So, what is on the cards now?In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast: ‘Market Outlook Mid-Year 2023’, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, and Kelly Chia, Deputy Head of Research in Asia, talk to Bernadette Anderko about the stalling of the cool-down, their expectations now regarding growth and inflation, and how they see the markets playing out in the second half of the year.0:32 Introduction1:05 Inflation and interest rate outlook2:52 US recession likelihood3:44 De-dollarisation vs Diversification4:41 Currency outlook5:40  Equity strategy – developed markets6:39 Equity strategy – emerging markets8:36 Japan9:26 Next generation opportunities11:01 Fixed income – likes and dislikes14:06 Commodities15:13 Final comments

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts From its low in October last year, the S&P 500 index is up over 20%, meaning it meets the technical definition of a bull market. Its largest company, Apple, is less than 1% from making a new all-time high. There were 26 bull markets since 1929, as defined as a 20% or more rally that was preceded by a 20% or more decline. 19 of the 26 had returns of over 30%. 16 of them had returns of over 50%. But this bull market goes against economic indicators that point to a slow-down or recession, and its breadth is unprecedentedly narrow, with less than one in four S&P companies outperforming the index. The forward price to sales ratio of the S&P Information Technology index at 6.5x is at a near-record high, compared to its long term average of 3.5x. And in the Q2 results season that starts next week, analysts expect a 9% y/y decline in earnings, the biggest decline since Q2 2020. But after that, analysts look for better earnings each quarter. As we move into H2 2023, the market will focus more on next year than this year. Analysts look for 2024 earnings to rise 11% y/y. Last week, the energy, financials and transportation indices all broke above downtrends in place since November 2021 and January 2022. All three are cyclical sectors; sensitive to the health of the economy.This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head Research Asia at Julius Baer.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts In this episode of The Week in Markets Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia, talks about the resolution of the debt deal in the US and key payroll data releases. Under the deal, the US government’s USD31.4trn debt ceiling would be suspended until 1 January 2025. With US default averted, the Treasury market can look to an avalanche of treasury bills to be issued in the next six months. The treasury bills will likely be absorbed by monies sitting in the money market funds. Outflows from bank deposits will likely lead to an increase in bank refinancing costs. Overall, the debt deal is less restrictive than expected for discretionary and mandatory spending. However, the deal does not reverse the trend to a higher debt-to-GDP ratio with the US spending an even higher share of its revenues for debt service in ten years. The positive news from the debt deal was however slightly offset by the US labor market showing strength. Prior to the release of the jobs data, US treasuries saw a rally after two Federal Reserve governors argued for an interest rate pause to allow the board to assess more economic indicators following the past months of tightening. The overall message is that a ‘Hold’ is not an end of the tightening. The market has now priced in a ‘skip’ in June and a good chance of a hike in July. Over to Asia, we saw some supportive policy news from China over the weekend providing a lift to equities and commodities on Monday. As expected, the government signalled targeted steps to boost the economy following the economic data print for May, focusing on the preferred sectors rather than a major stimulus like before. Trading activity is expected to be light as we approach the start of summer with investors leaning towards quality bonds while eschewing credit risks.