Beyond Markets

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts Last week, oil and gold saw their largest gains in half a year. The conflict in Israel is the reason, but history shows trade and finance adapt quickly to challenging circumstances. 70% of the rise in September CPI inflation came from “shelter” (residential property). Excluding shelter, CPI inflation would be 1.9%, exactly where the Fed wants it to be. Of the 32 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q3 results so far, 84% reported a positive earnings surprise, above the 5 year average of 77%. All 32 have beaten consensus estimates by 10.1%, above the 5 year average of 8.5%.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts The situation in Israel is fluid, but so far, the terrorist attacks of October 7 have not escalated into a regional conflict. The United States government wants to avoid high oil prices, especially with an election looming next year. The 10-year treasury yield has fallen from 4.8% prior to the attacks to 4.6% now. On Capitol Hill, the Republicans who control the House want slimmed down individual bills, the Democrats who control the Senate want a big omnibus bill. The latter means more federal government debt. The market may be sending the government a message that more debt means higher treasury yields. Since 1950, more than half of the S&P 500 index’s returns have come in Q4. We see this year as repeating the average, and look for a year end rally.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts In this special episode, we discuss the challenges of returning to work for breast cancer survivors and how organizations can help to ease the transition back into the workplace.Sue Woodall, breast cancer survivor and founder of LiveWorkCancer sheds light on this complex topic in an open discussion with Pearlyn Wong, Head Investment Content & Campaigns APAC.Chapters(00:00) - Start (01:37) - Introduction to Sue (02:40) - Comparing Singapore to Australia (04:49) - Sue’s breast cancer experience (08:41) - Sue’s experience at work (12:35) - What is a CancerKind Workplace? (16:51) - Cultural and societal nuances for breast cancer (19:03) - Tips for managers (20:42) - Tips for those diagnosed while working (24:15) - Concluding remarks

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts In this episode, we discuss the rates development in the US and Europe, and the different policy paths that both central banks are likely to take despite weakening consumer sentiments. In Europe, the indicators point to the ECB keeping a Hold in rates owing to very weak sentiment and as credit lending in Europe remains low. In the US, treasury yields jumped after the government shutdown is averted with the focus back on rates. We take stock of weakening consumer sentiment yet solid investment demand and unsustainable fiscal stance. We discuss what’s on the radar that could move US rates this week, which is labor market inputs. Basically, investors would like to see wage data that shows wage growth numbers rolling over while the Federal Reserve would like to avoid a situation where wage spiral is resurfacing again. In a nutshell, higher rates for longer mean a stronger USD against other major currencies.This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo (Head of Fixed Income Research, Asia)

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts In this episode, Serene Chua, Mandate Advisor at Julius Baer, and Jiazhi Chen, Head of Next Generation Investment Solutions at Julius Baer, share their insights about the megatrends that are shaping the future.What are the “Winners of tomorrow”? How can we harness the megatrends of today to deliver investment returns? Find out more in this episode.Speakers:  Serene Chua, Mandate Advisor, Julius Baer Singapore                    Jiazhi Chen, Head of Next Generation Investment Solutions, Julius Baer Zurich

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts The 10 year treasury yield at 4.46% shows the market is not convinced that the inflation fight is done. The dollar likes higher yields, it also likes the fact that Germany’s preliminary September manufacturing PMI is at 39.8, the lowest since the pandemic mobility restrictions of 2020. At 148.4 to the dollar, the yen is it’s lowest since 1990. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda said on Friday "We have yet to foresee inflation stably and sustainably achieve our price target. That's why we must patiently maintain ultra-loose monetary policy". Yet core inflation in Japan is 4.3%, and has been above the 2% price target since May. The fourth quarter is typically the best quarter of the year for the S&P 500 index, with an average return of 3.6%. In years when it rose 10% or more in the first three quarters of the year, the fourth quarter return was on average 4.6%. There are still five days to go before the third quarter ends, but so far this year, the S&P is up 12.5%.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts With an ever-growing population and ever-increasing pressures on our agricultural systems, just how secure is our food future? After a summer of wildfires, extreme heat, and Russia’s recent termination of the Ukraine grain deal, food inflation and food security are top of mind. In this episode, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, joins host Emily Rookwood, Head of Publications, to discuss the situation, its causes, and potential solutions.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts At 4.33%, the 10 year treasury yield is just 3 basis points below a new high since 2006. If the yield is the same 15 weeks from now, the treasury’s full-year return will be negative for 2023, for a third year in a row, something that has never happened before.The oil price is up 35% since May, but hasn’t been accompanied by other commodity prices. We find when oil uptrends are not confirmed by the broader complex, they are not sustainable. 80% of Saudi’s production cuts are being offset by increases in other countries. Add to that a peak in oil demand in 2024 as the world transitions to electric vehicles, and we look for oil at $75 a year from now.The S&P’s long-run seasonal average shows the best time to be in the market is the end of the year, and this year the S&P has had a remarkably close fit with the average so far this year. The consensus looks for a 0.2% y/y increase in Q3 earnings, but excluding energy, they could be up 5%. We think the current stock market consolidation will be over by mid-October at the latest, and then there should be a rally into year-end.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts In this episode of our monthly China update, Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, engages in a conversation with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group (GROW) to discuss recent developments in the Chinese market. Over the past few weeks, there have been some encouraging news on the policy front and positive economic data, which has resulted in a more favourable response from the market. Notably, there have been signs of stabilization, particularly for A-Shares. The question arises: has the market reached its lowest point? Furthermore, the discussion delves into the factors that will contribute to the upward momentum of the market. Tune in to this episode to gain a deeper understanding of these topics and stay informed about the latest updates in the Chinese market.

In this podcast, the analysts discuss the cool-down of inflation in major economies, China's balance sheet problem, research calls for Asian assets, key equity recommendations, sweet spots in emerging market equities, refreshing fixed income recommendations, US dollar expectations, update on Japanese yen and Swiss franc, artificial intelligence as value in the market, copper's room to run, and energy outlook this winter.