Beyond Markets

In this episode of Beyond Markets, we are joined by Nicolas de Skowronski, Head Wealth Management Solutions and member of the Executive Board, and Sonia Goessi, Head Region Switzerland and Europe and member of the Executive Board, to discuss Julius Baer’s 360-degree approach to wealth management and why it is important for everyone.

August employment data show a labour market that is continuing to cool, but not at an alarming rate. The three Federal Reserve officials spoke last week all hinted the impending rate cut cycle could be an aggressive one. But the futures market is still pricing a higher chance of a 25 basis point cut than a 50 basis point one at next week’s meeting. Most political analysts expect Vice President Harris to fare less well than former President Trump in this week’s debate, so there is more upside for her. But for the first time, renowned political statistician Nate Silver’s Electoral College model puts Trump ahead of Harris.

In this monthly China update, our experts analyse recent market movements and their implications for investors. They also discuss China’s property market, the evolving policy framework and its impact on Chinese households, the strengthening of the RMB and resulting currency trades, as well as the latest views on gold and Chinese government bonds.This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation rising 2.6% y/y in July is a perfectly acceptable reading for the market. Excluding the notoriously lagged housing component, it would be 2.1%, right where the Federal Reserve (Fed) wants it to be. However, inflation has less relevance for the market now that the Fed has made it clear that its focus is on employment. Initial jobless claims have returned to 230,000, and the Q2 annualised GDP has been revised upwards to 3.0% q/q, both suggesting that the economy is far from entering a recession. The Chinese government may allow homeowners to refinance as much as USD5.4trn of mortgages, which would be good for consumer sentiment. The dollar/renminbi exchange rate has broken an important support line. A rising renminbi tends to lift other Asian currencies. Usually, when money goes into a currency, the assets denominated in that currency see a lift too.This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

Three weeks ago, there were concerns of a new Black Monday, similar to the one in 1987. Today, global equities have reached a new high. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole focused on the labour market, where he said that the cooling is unmistakable. However, the Challenger Report showed only 26,000 job cuts in July, much lower than the 20-year average of 63,000 per month. A closer look at the rise in unemployment shows that much of it is coming from new entrants to the labour force who have not yet found jobs, leaving them still in the ranks of the unemployed. This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

How should investors position in Japan markets in light of the recent intense volatility in Japanese indices?Join Kelly Chia, Deputy Head of Research Asia at Bank Julius Baer, and Alexander Treves, Managing Director and Head of Investment Specialists, EMAP Equities at JP Morgan Asset Management, as they share their expert perspectives on how Japanese stocks are likely to fare in a rising Yen environment. They also explore the outlook for the Bank of Japan, and examine critical factors shaping Japan’s economy, including inflation trends and ongoing corporate reforms.

The Bitcoin blockchain needs miners to function. In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, talks to Helen Freer about the Bitcoin mining ecosystem, covering topics including how the Bitcoin mining process works, what artificial intelligence has to do with it, and how mining activity influences the overall market dynamics.00:51 Why has Bitcoin mining become such an important topic lately?03:01 How does mining actually work? 03:47 How do energy costs affect the profitability of Bitcoin miners?05:23 What is the hashrate?06:46 How does mining activity influence market dynamics?07:52 What drives the profitability of Bitcoin miners?09:28 What does artificial intelligence have to do with Bitcoin mining? 10:50 How might the outcome of the US election impact Bitcoin mining?12:08 The outlook for Bitcoin miners and the Bitcoin marketWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

As of 14th of August, over 92% of companies in the S&P 500 Index have reported earnings for the second quarter of 2024. What have we observed so far, and what trends do we see emerging?Cheng Hin Saw, Head of Equities Specialists Asia at Bank Julius Baer, presents five key takeaways from this earnings season.00:44 Earnings more resilient than revenues02:29 A broadening of growth03:27 Technology continues to dominate, but the narrative is shifting05:19 Weakness in Consumer sector06:36 Forward earnings guidance remains constructive

Recent stock market trends reveal a strong recovery, especially among major tech firms. The podcast discusses key economic indicators and the mood of investors as they navigate an uncertain market. Insights into the yen's influence on Japanese stocks highlight potential benefits from a dovish monetary stance. Excitement brews over the expected first rate cut from the Fed, with a historical perspective on recessions and optimistic forecasts for U.S. equities in 2024, despite underlying risks.

Eric Mak, an expert from Julius Baer’s Equity Research Asia team, dives into the recent turbulence of the markets. He discusses extreme volatility, with US equities facing sharp intraday drawdowns and the Japanese Yen's surprising appreciation. Eric highlights the overhype surrounding AI and explores growing concerns over a potential US recession. He also unpacks the Bank of Japan's cautious interest rate strategies amidst inflation, offering insights into navigating these challenging times and making strategic portfolio adjustments.