CRE Exchange: Commercial Real Estate, Property Valuations, Real Estate Analytics and Property Tax

In the latest episode of the CRE Exchange podcast, Omar Eltorai, US Director of Research, and Cole Perry, Senior Market Analyst of Altus Group, discuss the latest FOMC minutes and the probability of a final rate hike for the year, findings from the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) on credit access, which indicates a decline in expectations for credit availability, the increase in permits and starts for multi-family housing, mixed news from major retail chains with a glimpse of hope for the holiday season, and much more! Key Takeaways:(00:58) The latest US Leading Economic Index(02:12) FOMC minutes (Nov. 21 release) with odds for an interest rate hike before end of year(04:46) A view into consumer expectations for credit demand and credit approval(10:26) The latest read on building permits, housing starts and home sales(13:21) Earnings reports from Walmart, Target, Macy’s, TJX, Home Depot and Lowes(22:31) Capital markets update(26:43) Q4 2023 CRE Industry Conditions and Sentiment Survey results(34:26) Upcoming data releases Omar and Cole are keeping an eye on over the next two weeks Resources Mentioned:Omar Eltorai -https://www.linkedin.com/in/omareltorai/Cole Perry -https://www.linkedin.com/in/coleperry1/Altus Group -https://www.linkedin.com/company/altus-group/US Leading Economic Index -https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicatorsSCE Credit Access Survey -https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/credit-access#/FOMC minutes -https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/credit-access#/US and Canada CRE Industry Conditions and Sentiment survey results (Q4 results to be released December 5, 2023) -https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/cre-industry-conditions-and-sentiment-survey-register/Thanks for listening to the CRE Exchange podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

In the latest episode of the CRE Exchange podcast, Altus Group’s Cole Perry, Senior Market Analyst, and Omar Eltorai, Director of Research, take on the latest economic developments and their impact on CRE.They dive into the recent policy rate announcements by the global central banks, lending trends from the lens of SLOOS, house price trends, REIT earnings and more. Key Takeaways:(00:56) Analysis of recent policy rate announcements by global central banks and their implications on the market.(04:43) A discussion of how inflation and interest rates impact consumer sentiment in the US.(07:21) Trends in bank lending based on the SLOOS.(13:30) Analysis of the FHFA house price index and Case-Shiller index in the context of housing market trends.(16:40) Fluctuations in Treasury yields and mortgage rates, and the implications for the housing market.(17:36) The negative yield curve is an indicator of potential economic downturns.(19:43) Highlights from recent earnings calls of major REITs and their market performance.(25:28) A preview of upcoming analyses on remote work trends and their impact on office markets.Resources Mentioned:Cole Perry -https://www.linkedin.com/in/coleperry1/Omar Eltorai -https://www.linkedin.com/in/omareltorai/Altus Group -https://www.linkedin.com/company/altus-group/Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee Minutes - https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htmFHFA House Price Index - https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/House-Price-Index.aspxS&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISASenior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) - https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202307.htmUniversity of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/Measuring remote work impact on office uncertainty - https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/measuring-remote-work-impact-on-office-uncertainty/Thanks for listening to the CRE Exchange podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

On this week’s episode of the CRE Exchange podcast, Cole Perry, Senior Market Analyst, and Omar Eltorai, Director of Research, both at Altus Group, break down the current economic conditions, focusing on the Federal Reserve’s reports, GDP releases and key insights from the housing, industrial, retail, office, and banking sectors.Key Takeaways: (01:05) Analysis of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book: subdued commercial real estate activity. (02:15) Challenges faced in the office sector, in leasing, rent and valuations. (03:40) US Real GDP’s annualized growth reached 4.9% for Q3 2023. (06:06) Update on retail sales and consumer spending.(08:37) Housing market trends — home sales, supply, mortgage rates and what it means for multifamily.(10:33) The latest on large banks’ earnings and the appetite for commercial real estate lending.(14:04) Asset managers signal that dry powder is primed for opportunistic CRE investment.(16:30) Brokerages’ shift from 2022 expansion to 2024 cost reduction. (17:52) Interesting themes across industrial, office and retail sectors.(24:41) Announcements: State of the market Canada edition and Altus ODCE webinars.Resources Mentioned:Cole Perry -https://www.linkedin.com/in/coleperry1/Omar Eltorai -https://www.linkedin.com/in/omareltorai/Altus Group -https://www.linkedin.com/company/altus-group/Federal Reserve’s Beige Book -https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20231018.pdfWebinar recording: US State of the Market  -https://www.altusgroup.com/webinars/us-state-of-the-market-quarterly-analysis/Upcoming webinar: NCREIF ODCE Index - Q3 2023 analysis  -https://www.altusgroup.com/webinars/ncreif-odce-index-quarterly-analysis/Upcoming webinar: Canada State of the Market -https://www.altusgroup.com/webinars/canada-state-of-the-market/Thanks for listening to the CRE Exchange podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

On this episode, Cole Perry, Senior Market Analyst, and Omar Eltorai, Director of Research, both of Altus Group, navigate various compelling topics that have recently been in the spotlight. They unpack the latest inflation and job market numbers, provide insights from the Federal Reserve's minutes and consider indicators of small business optimism. This episode provides insightful critical analyses and reflections on the state of the economy and the CRE market.Key Takeaways:(01:08)  A close look at the U.S. consumer price index and its rise in September. (01:55) September's employment report reveals strength across the labor market. Nonfarm payrolls and other key metrics shed light on the current state of employment.(08:33) JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup's recent performances are discussed —  highlighting significant growth in earnings and revenue. (11:22) A brief touch on the performances of PNC and the airline industry, particularly United and Delta.(13:10) From U.S. bank capital regulations to the ECB's increased scrutiny on CRE loans in Europe, the episode covers crucial regulatory shifts and their implications.(16:29) Insights from the Walker & Dunlop Most Insightful Hour in CRE and the State of the Market webinar provide a holistic view of current market dynamics.(21:05) The resilience of regional malls and the evolving work-from-home trends are examined, offering a window into changing consumer and workforce behaviors.Resources mentioned:Cole Perry -https://www.linkedin.com/in/coleperry1/Omar Eltorai - https://www.linkedin.com/in/omareltorai/Altus Group -https://www.linkedin.com/company/altus-group/Altus Group’s US Commercial Real Estate Industry Conditions and Sentiment Survey -https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/cre-industry-conditions-and-sentiment-survey-register/Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee Minutes -https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htmNFIB Small Business Optimism Index Report -https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/small-business-optimism-dips-in-september-as-inflation-remains-top-problem/State of the Market Webinar Replay -https://www.altusgroup.com/webinars/us-state-of-the-market-quarterly-analysis/Young Real Estate Professionals of New York -http://www.yrepny.org/Thanks for listening to the CRE Exchange podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

On this week’s episode of the CRE Exchange podcast, Cole Perry and Omar Eltorai, both of Altus Group, cover the latest US economic print, including consumer signals from Costco, CarMax and Carnival’s earnings reports. Additionally, they discuss the current housing trends in San Francisco and the rest of the country. Lastly, they share some observations from the CREFC Capital Markets Conference which took place last week.Key Takeaways:(01:13) Core PCE inflation was up 3.9% year-over-year in August 2023, the smallest monthly increase since November 2020.(02:29) Bank credit card delinquency rates are at the highest level in more than a decade.(8:41) The FHFA House Price Index and the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index reached their respective highs in August 2023.(12:42) Securitization markets are still functioning despite seeing a few down quarters.(13:00) Banks are better capitalized and better positioned than they have been heading into historical down cycles. (14:02) Credit concerns will likely take time to work out, possibly years. (14:51) The FDIC is selling a large portion of the Signature Loan portfolio, which is heavily New York and multifamily.(15:15) The San Francisco office market faces challenges, but the long-term outlook is positive. Resources Mentioned:Cole Perry -https://www.linkedin.com/in/coleperry1/Omar Eltorai -https://www.linkedin.com/in/omareltorai/Altus Group -https://www.linkedin.com/company/altus-group/FHFA House Price Index -https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/House-Price-Index.aspxS&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index -https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISAEmail: altusresearch@altusgroup.comThanks for listening to the CRE Exchange podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

On this week’s CRE Exchange, Cole Perry, Senior Market Analyst, and Omar Eltorai, Director of Research, both of Altus Group, tackle FOMC’s decision on rates, current trajectories for building permits and home starts, potential consumer demand signals from four recent earnings reports, WP Carey’s shift in investments, Airbnb’s predicament with NYC’s Local Law 18, looming threats of a government shutdown and a sneak peek into critical upcoming market indicators.Key Takeaways:[00:55] Latest news from the FOMC: Rates hold, but expectations of higher for longer persist.[03:18] US and Canada housing starts and building permits diverge — is it a blip or just a lag?[06:27] KB Homes’ earnings report confirms a tough environment for home sales but a silver lining around consumer attitudes toward smaller homes.[10:51] Three major companies, three indications of weakening consumer demand.[16:12] WP Carey’s Investment Evolution: WP Carey plans to exit office spaces and reallocate investments into essential retail, industrial warehouses and self-storage assets. They introduce the Net Lease Office Properties REIT.[18:41]The Airbnb Challenge in NYC: NYC experienced a 77% drop in Airbnb listings due to Local Law 18, potentially reviving the traditional hotel sector in Manhattan and providing other major cities with a glimpse into how similar laws could impact their short-term rental markets.[21:37]  Implications of a Government Shutdown: Apprehensions and discussions concerning a looming shutdown, potentially disrupting crucial economic metrics.[22:56] Market Pulse: Upcoming market indicators and corporate earnings calls, such as Costco, CarMax, and Carnival Cruise Lines, offer insights into evolving market trends.Resources Mentioned:Cole Perry -https://www.linkedin.com/in/coleperry1/Omar Eltorai -https://www.linkedin.com/in/omareltorai/Altus Group -https://www.linkedin.com/company/altus-group/Financial reports from WP Carey -https://s29.q4cdn.com/223055717/files/doc_earnings/2023/q2/earnings-result/W-P-Carey-Inc-Announces-Second-Quarter-2023-Financial-Results.pdfLocal Law 18’s impact on Airbnb listings -https://therealdeal.com/new-york/2023/06/13/nyc-postpones-enforcing-short-term-rental-law/Thanks for listening to the CRE Exchange podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

In the latest episode of the CRE Exchange, Cole Perry, Altus Group’s Senior Market Analyst, and Omar Eltorai, the Director of Research, evaluate the most recent economic indicators, including Small Business Optimism Index, CPI, PPI and business inventory levels. They analyze how these numbers could potentially impact the commercial real estate market.Key Takeaways:[1:24] What the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index indicates about US small businesses’ appetite for investment in real estate.[2:28] Whether the latest CPI and PPI numbers give us an idea of what the Fed and central banks will do next to address inflation.[4:56] What may be in store for the industrial sector based on the recent retail and business inventory numbers.[7:42] Whether higher prices and lower supplies of single-family homes may be in our future.[12:17] What’s on Omar and Cole’s watchlist over the next weekResources Mentioned:Cole Perry -https://www.linkedin.com/in/coleperry1/Omar Eltorai -https://www.linkedin.com/in/omareltorai/Altus Group -https://www.linkedin.com/company/altus-group/NFIB Small Business Optimism Index -https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/nfib-business-optimism-indexConsumer Price Index (CPI) -https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htmProducer Price Index (PPI) -https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htmThanks for listening to the CRE Exchange podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

On this week’s episode of the CRE Exchange podcast, Cole Perry, Senior Market Analyst, and Omar Eltorai, Director of Research, both at Altus Group, delve into recent consumer credit trends, Kroger’s strategic shifts, and the implications of new rental regulations in NYC.Key Takeaways:- [00:06:38] Consumer Credit Surge: A significant rise in consumer credit in July, emphasizing the role of credit card debt.- [00:06:54] Inflation’s Impact: Delving into how inflation is affecting consumer spending habits and the broader economy.- [00:07:13] Kroger’s Financial Performance: Insights from Kroger’s recent earnings call, investment moves and the potential implications for the retail landscape.- [00:09:27] Short-Term Rental Regulations in NYC: A deep dive into New York City’s new regulations and their potential impact on the short-term rental market.- [00:13:27] US CRE industry conditions and sentiment: Our Q3 2023 results are in.- [00:18:43] What we’re keeping an eye on this week.Resources Mentioned:Cole Perry -https://www.linkedin.com/in/coleperry1/Omar Eltorai -https://www.linkedin.com/in/omareltorai/Altus Group -https://www.linkedin.com/company/altus-group/Altus Group’s  US Commercial Real Estate Industry Conditions and Sentiment Survey - https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/cre-industry-conditions-and-sentiment-survey/Altus Group’s  Canada Commercial Real Estate Industry Conditions and Sentiment Survey - https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/cre-industry-conditions-and-sentiment-survey-canada/NYC Law 18 - https://www.nyc.gov/site/specialenforcement/registration-law/registration-rules-and-laws.pageFederal Reserve’s Beige Book - https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202309.htmThanks for listening to the CRE Exchange podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

On this week’s episode of the CRE Exchange podcast, Cole Perry, Senior Market Analyst at Altus Group, and Omar Eltorai, Director of Research at Altus Group, review the latest slew of policy rates, economic indicators and market data points impacting the US commercial real estate industry.Key Takeaways:[00:53] Market signals supporting a “softer landing” narrative for the economy.[06:10] Limitations on market optimism within the real estate sector.[08:34] Office lease rollover: the potential implications for some of the largest US office markets.[11:27] Upcoming policy rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada and what they may mean to global central bank monetary policies.[12:15] Top economic indicators to watch this week.Resources mentioned:Cole Perry -https://www.linkedin.com/in/coleperry1/Omar Eltorai -https://www.linkedin.com/in/omareltorai/Altus Group -https://www.linkedin.com/company/altus-group/Reserve Bank of Australia -https://www.rba.gov.au/Bank of Canada -https://www.bankofcanada.ca/Federal Reserve’s Beige Book -https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/publications/beige-book-default.htmNear-term rollover risk endangers major office markets -https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/near-term-rollover-risk-endangers-major-office-markets/Thanks for listening to the CRE Exchange podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

On this episode of the CRE Exchange, Cole Perry, Senior Market Analyst at Altus Group, and Omar Eltorai, Director of Research at Altus Group, offer a comprehensive analysis of recent economic indicators and their potential ramifications on the commercial real estate sector.Key Discussions:- [00:00:34] Key revelations from the Jackson Hole symposium with emphasis on the Fed’s take on inflation and the looming rate hikes.- [00:03:21] An examination of the current state of the mortgage market, noting the dramatic rise in rates to levels not seen since 2001.- [00:04:43] A detailed analysis of housing data, highlighting the contrasting trajectories of new and existing home sales amidst escalating mortgage rates.- [00:09:22] The earnings and trajectories of industry giants like Zoom and NVIDIA and the increasing role of artificial intelligence.- [00:11:02] Insights from the retail sector with focus on evolving consumer behaviors based on the earnings reports of Lowe’s and Dollar Tree.Resources mentioned:- Cole Perry - https://www.linkedin.com/in/coleperry1/- Omar Eltorai - https://www.linkedin.com/in/omareltorai/- Altus Group - https://www.linkedin.com/company/altus-group/- Jackson Hole Symposium - https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20230825a.htm- CME FedWatch Tool - https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.htmlThanks for listening to the CRE Exchange podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property