Oil Markets

Much has been said about Donald Trump's ambitions in upstream oil sector, specifically his promise to unleash US oil producers and boost output. Conventional oil refiners, many of which have invested in renewables, are hopeful that Trump will reduce support for electric vehicles, propping up demand for conventional fuels. Biofuels producers are looking for Trump to maintain the tax incentives that have incentivized investments in the industry under Joe Biden’s administration, and are hoping for an expansion of E15 blended gasoline. However, tariffs remain the wild card.    Jeff Mower discusses these developments with senior downstream editor Janet McGurty, policy editor Eamonn Brennan, and US biofuels and feedstocks price editor Guadalupe Nunez.

The election of Donald Trump for a second term as US president has brought significant attention to US energy policy. Meanwhile, OPEC+ announced on November 3 its decision to delay tapering production cuts of 2.2 million b/d from December to January, having previously postponed from October 2024. As markets absorb president-elect Trump’s victory, Payam Hashempour and Charlie Mitchell join Joel Hanley to analyze OPEC+ policy amid and beyond this political shake-up affecting the cartel’s major producer counterpart across the Atlantic. Related content: OPEC+ delays plan to ease crude oil output cuts by one month FIRST TAKE Whatsapp channel Track our US Elections coverage Price assesments:  Dated Brent Dubai Mo01 (NextGen MOC)

Crude production in the Permian Basin is growing, but pipeline capacity growth out of the West Texas/New Mexico play is lagging. With Permian crude output expected to reach roughly 7 million b/d by December 2025, some industry watchers are concerned that tight exit capacity could lead to wider crude price discounts for Midland WTI. Will the market see a repeat of August 2018, when the WTI Midland discount widened to $20/b because exit capacity fell short? Does US crude export growth present another potential bottleneck? And what does lower-than-expected US crude export demand mean for several planned terminal expansion on the US Gulf Coast? Jeff Mower, director of Americas oil news, discusses pipeline capacity, crude export demand, and more with senior upstream oil editor Starr Spencer and midstream oil editor Binish Azhar.

The footprint of US crude oil is rapidly expanding, intensifying competition with OPEC and non-OPEC supplies in key Asian markets. As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate, how much US crude can fill potential supply gaps in Asia? Additionally, how could policies under a new US administration, whether led by Trump or Harris, impact oil outflows? In a wide-ranging discussion with Sambit Mohanty, Asia energy editor, Joel Hanley, global director for crude oil at S&P Global Commodity Insights and Benjamin Tang, head of liquid bulk at S&P Global Commodities at Sea, share their insights on some of the key themes that could potentially have implications for Asia’s appetite for crude oil from the non-OPEC supplier, which is heading for a sharp growth in domestic output.

As high sulfur fuel oil cracks in Europe hover at year-to-date highs outside of their traditional summer peaks, reporters Tommy Petrou and Takis Gounaris join Joel Hanley to delve into the fundamentals that are providing a firm footing for fuel oil markets in Europe as heightened tensions in the Middle East stir up volatility across the commodities complex. Links: FIRST TAKE Whatsapp channel: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029Vah2ZJPGJP8JnyPYbf46 3.5%S FOB Rdam Barge - PUABC00 3.5%S FOB Rdam Barge Brent Crack Mo01 - AATZT00 Rotterdam HSFO barges reach 3-month high amid tight supply (subscriber content)  

California gasoline prices are notoriously volatile, and state's lawmakers are taking notice. California's Senate is considering a bill proposed by Governor Gavin Newsom that would require state refiners to increase gasoline inventories and would also give the state additional control over refinery maintenance programs. How much does California's boutique blend play into the state's high gasoline prices? What is the plan for fuel storage in the state amid the energy transition? Will California become even more dependent on fuel imports as refining capacity continues to shrink?   Jeff Mower, director of Americas Oil news, discusses with refined products news editor Janet McGurty, refined products price editor Zoe Vastakis, and refining analyst Matthew Gordon.   Links: Los Angeles CARBOB vs NYMEX AANVX00 Chicago RBOB vs NYMEX AANY102 

Joey Daly, a reporter from Platts specializing in North Sea crude oil, shares insights into the current volatility of physical spot markets. He discusses the anticipated return of Libyan supply and its impact on the Mediterranean and West African markets. The conversation highlights how escalating tensions in the Middle East are affecting crude prices and draws attention to the challenges faced by the North Sea market due to weakening demand and increased competition. Traders and stakeholders are provided with key market dynamics to navigate this turbulent landscape.

Oil demand in India and China—the two Asian giants—was a key topic of discussion at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference. China's oil demand going forward remains a significant concern for oil-producing nations as oil consumption from Asia’s largest economy is waning amid weaker-than-expected economic growth and ongoing property woes, a double whammy for diesel demand. Meanwhile, crude producers look to others, namely India to pick up the slack potentially.   In this podcast, S&P Global Commodity Insights' Jonathan Nonis, associate editorial director is joined by Mriganka Jaipuriyar, head of news, APAC, and Pulkit Agarwal, head of India content to discuss the energy challenges in these two countries and their impact on oil markets for the rest of Asia. It also discusses the easing crude imports from China and its effects on the broader inter-Asia oil product market.

The impending closure of Grangemouth, one of the last six refineries in the UK, raises urgent questions about the future of Europe’s refining landscape as profitability declines. Our experts examine the challenges facing the European downstream sector, including evolving supply chains and the impact of energy transition trends. In this Oil Markets podcast episode, join host Herman Wang, Elza Turner and Kelly Norways as they discuss the potential for further refinery shutdowns and the critical shifts shaping oil markets across the continent. Links:Energy Security Sentinel™ ULSD 10ppmS FOB ARA Barge - AAJUS00 Gasoline Prem Unleaded 10ppmS FOB AR Barge - PGABM00 Dated Brent - PCAAS00 Petroineos to close Scotland's Grangemouth refinery Q2 2025 (subscriber content) Mediterranean refiners cut runs due to margin squeeze (subscriber content) REFINERY NEWS ROUNDUP: SAF in focus in Asia, Europe (subscriber content) REFINERY NEWS ROUNDUP: Maintenance, closures, incidents in Europe (subscriber content) REFINERY NEWS ROUNDUP: Maintenance picks up in Asia-Pacific (subscriber content)

Crude futures prices have tumbled recently in part as supply expectations are outweighing demand forecasts. On the supply side, non-OPEC crude production has been rising, driven largely by output gains in the US, Canada, Guyana and Brazil. On the demand side, slowing economic growth, notably in China, has reduced the expected need for crude, at least in the near term. What role is technology playing in the crude output gains? Are pipeline constraints around the corner? And how is an endangered whale species posing an obstacle to Gulf of Mexico output? Join Jeff Mower, director of Americas Oil News, as he discusses with Platts US crude market editor Laura Huchzermeyer, senior upstream editor Starr Spencer, and oil futures editor Chris van Moessner.