Wisdom of Crowds

Recent events suggest that the balance of power is breaking down. Trump is achieving executive supremacy. In less fancy terms, Trump looks like he’s becoming a dictator. Rule of law might be slipping away. Shadi Hamid and Damir Marusic agree about all this. But they disagree about which recent event is the true inflection point.Shadi thinks it’s the Mahmoud Khalil case: it’s a straightforward government action against freedom of speech, intended to have a chilling effect on the population. Damir believes it’s the deportation of Venezuelan migrants to Nayib Bukele’s megaprison in El Salvador: the policy relies on the bogus claim that we are at war with Venezuela, and it’s the clearest example yet of executive defiance of the courts. How will we know when the constitutional order has truly taken a knock-out hit? Damir believes that, unless the Supreme Court votes 9-0 against Trump’s Venezuelan deportation, the “the cracks [will] start opening” on the balance of powers. “How do you break the Supreme Court? That’s the whole game right now. And you break it through pressure, through politics,” Damir argues. “Institutions are just beliefs,” he adds. “If you undermine these beliefs enough, it’s over.”Shadi takes the conversation back to January 6 which, in retrospect, seems like it was the best opportunity to take down Trump. “Everyone seemed to make the wrong decision on how to deal with Trump, at precisely the time when it would have mattered most,” Shadi says. Shadi says that he is still surprised that more Republicans did not object to January 6. Damir is upset with how Democrats reached: “They had a theory of what is just and right, but no sense of politics or how to do things. They got the s**t kicked out of them and now the country is suffering for it.” What we are getting with Trump now, Damir says, is “a more lasting tribalism.”We are making this timely episode free for all subscribers.Required Reading:* CrowdSource about the Mahmoud Khalil case (WoC).* Santiago Ramos, “From the Harper’s Letter to the Khalil Case” (WoC).* “Deported Brown University doctor acknowledged she attended Hezbollah leader’s funeral on visit to Lebanon, source says” (CNN).* “Judge warns of consequences if Trump administration violated deportation order” (Reuters).* En Boca de León - León Krauze, “The scale of El Salvador’s new prison is difficult to comprehend” (Washington Post).* “Amy Coney Barrett Sparks MAGA Fury Over Trump Supreme Court Decision” (Newsweek).* “Gavin Newsom and Steve Bannon find surprising agreement on Elon Musk” (CNN).* Machiavelli on Savonarola (The Municipal Machiavelli).Full video of the podcast below:This post is part of our collaboration with the University of Pittsburgh’s Center for Governance and Markets.Wisdom of Crowds is a platform challenging premises and understanding first principles on politics and culture. Join us! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wisdomofcrowds.live/subscribe

Mana Afsari, a keen writer and contributor with notable experience from the RAND Corporation and Aspen Institute, dives into the intriguing motivations of young men who support Trump. She discusses her viral essay exploring how these ambitious individuals are drawn to right-wing spaces due to a perceived lack of support from the Democratic Party. The conversation touches on the complexities of their political identities and aspirations, revealing a generational divide that challenges stereotypes and provides new insights into the modern conservative movement.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit wisdomofcrowds.liveWith the Gaza ceasefire possibly collapsing any minute, we return to the topic of the October 7 Hamas terrorist attacks and the ensuing war in the Holy Land. Specifically, Shadi Hamid and Damir Marusic discuss the tension between a belief in universal human rights, on the one hand, and allegiance to one’s ethnic and religious roots, on the other. Joining Shadi and Damir is friend of the pod Peter Beinart, contributing writer for the New York Times and editor-at-large of the magazine, Jewish Currents. In recent years, Beinart has emerged as a leading Jewish voice wrestling with the moral questions surrounding the Israel-Palestine conflict. His new book, Being Jewish After the Destruction of Gaza: A Reckoning, describes the different ways that Jews have wrestled with the morality of the war in Gaza. Peter is an observant Orthodox Jew, and this book documents how his criticism of the war has affected (and even broken) several of his friendships in his community.Peter affirms a belief in the universality of human rights and obligations to all human beings. But, he confesses, “there’s another voice inside my head: don’t be naive, this is a world of power in which people either look out for their own, or nobody looks out for you.” Is it possible to reconcile these two thoughts? Shadi argues for the universalist point of view: given the high number of civilian deaths in the Gaza war, shouldn’t it be obvious that our allegiance to universal values should take priority over everything else? Shouldn’t we have more “sensitivity for civilian deaths”? Damir presses from the opposite, particularist perspective. He’s been reading the Bible. There is, Damir says, a biblical sense for “the destiny of the Israelites to the land” of Israel. Moreover, Damir argues, even if Israel is powerful today, and even if Israel did not need to wage war on the scale that it did in Gaza, not too long ago, Israel actually was existentially threatened by its neighbors. Moreover, Iran is still a real threat today. This is a heart-wrenching, wide-ranging episode that covers several controversial topics: the parallels between the war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza; whether Israel can be called an Apartheid state; how to interpret the historical books of the Bible, in particular the Book of Joshua; and much more. In our bonus section for paid subscribers, Peter and our hosts discuss why the Israeli Left is dead and why Yair Lapid supports Trump’s Gaza mass expulsion plan; how liberal Americans internalize the ethnic framing of the Israel-Palestine debate; Israel’s right to exist; ethnonationalism on the rise around the world; what Steve Bannon really thinks about American Jews; and how to maintain friends with whom you might have deep disagreements. Required Reading* Peter Beinart, Being Jewish After the Destruction of Gaza: A Reckoning (Amazon).* Peter Beinart, The Beinart Notebook (Substack).* Peter Beinart, “Teshuvah: A Jewish Case for Palestinian Refugee Return” (Jewish Currents).* October 2023 podcast episode with Peter: “Peter Beinart on Israel, Hamas, and Why Nonviolence Failed” (WoC).* July 2020 podcast episode with Peter: “Arguing the One-State Solution” (WoC).* “Lapid presents Gaza ‘day after’ plan in DC, urges extended Egyptian takeover” (Times of Israel). * The Book of Joshua (Bible Hub).* David Ben-Gurion (Jewish Virtual Library).* Yeshayahu Leibowitz (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy).* Micah Goodman, Catch-67: The Left, the Right, and the Legacy of the Six-Day War (Amazon).* Amoz Oz, In the Land of Israel (Amazon).* Simone Weil, The Iliad, or the Poem of Force (Amazon).This post is part of our collaboration with the University of Pittsburgh’s Center for Governance and Markets.Free preview video:Full video for paid subscribers below:

Ivan Krastev, a notable political analyst and historian, shares his insights on the revolutionary nature of Trumpism and its impact on Europe. He describes Trump’s leadership style as an 'imperial court' where contrasting figures vie for attention. The conversation delves into the repercussions of J.D. Vance’s Munich speech, the tensions between liberalism and conservatism, and the influence of technology on political identity. Krastev also emphasizes the importance of understanding voter choices in today’s complex media landscape amid rising polarization.

Sean Monahan, a sharp cultural commentator and the mind behind the term "vibe shift," chats with Christine Emba and Shadi Hamid about the recent seismic changes in American culture. They dive into what vibes truly mean and how our collective feelings have shifted, particularly post-pandemic. The trio explores fashion's transition from skinny jeans to baggy styles and unveils the 'boom boom' trend marked by a hedonistic approach to culture. The conversation also touches on the evolving perceptions of wealth and elitism, reflecting modern values.

The discussion kicks off with a bold declaration: saying ‘impossible’ is outdated, especially regarding Trump’s potential actions. The conversation dives into the unprecedented shakeup in governmental roles and Trump’s support from Congress, raising concerns about the future of democracy. Listeners hear about an emerging plebiscitary democracy and the allure of disruptors like Trump. There's a critical examination of cultural impacts and the ongoing political sentiment, all framed by the haunting question: are we witnessing an era of gradual democratic decline?

A whirlwind of political drama unfolds as Trump proposes relocating Palestinians amidst the Gaza crisis, raising questions about U.S. foreign policy morality. The contrasting styles of Trump and Biden are scrutinized, offering fresh insights into their handling of Israel-Palestine relations. Meanwhile, Musk's radical reshaping of government agencies hints at a looming constitutional crisis. The episode dives into the dangers of political purges within federal employment, examining how ideological conformity threatens the very fabric of governance.

Political upheaval is in the air, with new right-wing figures emerging in the aftermath of a major inauguration. The speakers dissect a cultural shift, challenging the status quo and the perceived liberal dominance in America. They reflect on the quirky rise of fringe movements and microstates like Liberland, while questioning the effectiveness of the current political rhetoric. Amidst debates on foreign policy and cultural change, the implications of media influence on political thought become clear as they navigate the evolving landscape of American politics.

Osita Nwanevu, a writer for the New Republic and author of an upcoming book on American democracy, joins to dissect the current state of the American Left. He contrasts the fragmented Democratic coalition with a more unified Left advocating for worker empowerment. Nwanevu highlights the Left's sense of political hopelessness post-Trump and emphasizes the need for a platform that resonates with voters. They explore the evolving role of social media in activism and critique the Left's errors in connecting with the public on ideological grounds.

The discussion dives into the aftermath of Trump's victory, exploring the refreshed perspectives within the Right. There's debate on whether Democrats will truly learn from their recent setbacks. The speakers highlight a newfound willingness to engage in diverse ideas, while the Left faces criticism for its overconfidence. They also criticize governance failures in urban centers and reflect on the complexity of political identity in today's polarized environment, emphasizing the need for genuine ideological engagement.