The Americas Quarterly Podcast

From the outside looking in, it’s hard to understand what is happening in Venezuela these days. On the one hand Nicolás Maduro seems stronger than he’s been in years. The Venezuelan economy seems to have bottomed out, after years of terrible crisis. And the opposition is divided and struggling to connect with the Venezuelan people. On the other, the opposition and the Maduro government are back at the negotiating table and there is a sense that elections scheduled for 2024 might improve the political climate, even if those involved know that those elections won’t be free and fair. On this week's episode, AQ's Brian Winter spoke to The Washington Post's Ana Vanessa Herrero about how Venezuelans are faring economically, how most people see the Maduro regime and the latest developments in the Venezuelan opposition as they prepare for primaries and elections.

Chile’s politics have been turned upside down once again, as an election last Sunday gave the political right almost full control over the writing of a new Constitution. A little more than a year ago, the country seemed to be undergoing a progressive transformation, after waves of protests, the arrival of a left-wing, young president, Gabriel Boric, and plans for what was supposed to be an expansive new Constitution. In this episode, political scientist Patricio Navia explains why the electorate’s mood seems to have shifted and what these developments mean for the political and economic future of Chile. Navia is a professor at both New York University and at Universidad Diego Portales, and a member of Americas Quarterly’s editorial board.

 What happens in Paraguayan politics matters not only to people who live there, but for the rest of the region and the world. It’s a member of Mercosur, at a time when that bloc’s future is in flux, and a key part of the rising strategic competition between the U.S. and China in the region — Paraguay remains one of a few nations who still recognize Taiwan. In recent elections, the country went against a regional wave of anti-incumbency sentiment by choosing a candidate of the ruling Colorado party, which has been in power for almost all of the past seven decades. In this episode, we do an overview of Paraguay, looking at the consequences of elections to the rest of Latin America, how it fits into the growing U.S.-China competition, and why Paraguayan voters bucked a 5-year-long regional trend by voting for more of the same. Our guest is Julieta Heduvan, a Paraguayan foreign policy analyst and author of Paraguay, Política Exterior e Integración Regional. 

The return of Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is a potential game-changer for Latin America. No other leader in the region is as experienced and has such a large global profile. Lula is in a position to lead on key issues such as climate, regional trade integration and the growing confrontation between the U.S. and China. However, the path to an influential international role is full of obstacles. In this episode, Brian Winter and Oliver Stuenkel discuss what to expect on foreign policy from Lula's third term as president. In the process, they analyze the meaning and the consequences of Lula's recent comments about the war in Ukraine. 

In Guatemala, economic growth has done little to improve poverty and inequality. Violence continues to drive people to leave the country. Democracy is also in decline, as successive governments have undermined institutions, jailed journalists and forced independent prosecutors and judges into exile. In these conditions, one might expect candidates in upcoming presidential elections to stand for change. Yet the leading ones share similarities with the current president. What explains this? In this episode, investigative journalist Claudia Méndez Arriaza describes how elites control  the political and judicial systems in order to maintain power in their own hands. She also talks about hopes for change. Méndez Arriaza currently works with ConCriterio.

El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele's hard-line security policies have contributed to a decline in homicides and extortion in El Salvador, but at a very high cost to human rights and democratic freedoms. Despite that, many in the region see this as a model to emulate and are vowing to implement similar policies. Is Bukelismo the wave of the future throughout the region? How should those who disagree with Bukele's strategy react and provide an antidote within the boundaries of the rule of law? Tamara Taraciuk Broner, deputy Americas director at Human Rights Watch, answers these and other questions in this week's episode.

Argentina is approaching October elections with an annual inflation above 100%, poverty levels at around 40% and the possibility of tipping into recession again. However, the political class is mostly united in trying to avoid the worst, according to our guest, political risk consultant Juan Cruz Diaz. Juan also argues that there is a sense of opportunity for the medium term, as a gas pipeline comes online probably sometime this year and interesting energy projects move forward.

Latin America’s transition away from fossil fuels is well underway, with an average 60% of renewables in its power mix. If the region can continue down this road, and incorporate new technology in areas like green hydrogen, it can become a true leader in the global energy transition and unlock a new era of green jobs and economic growth. But there are barriers, and politics can get in the way. In this episode, we get an overview of the status of different countries in the energy transition and where the challenges and best opportunities are. Our guest, energy analyst Luisa Palacios, argues that investing in clean energy is important for environmental reasons, but it is also a crucial tool for economic development.

 Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s third term as president of Brazil will soon reach its 100-day mark. The specters of Jair Bolsonaro’s constant attacks on institutions and the insurrection in Brasília on January 8 still loom. The economy is fragile. And there are disputes inside Lula’s party regarding how to address these and other issues. In this episode, we take a long view to try to understand Lula’s recent actions and what they mean for Brazil. Our guest is Celso Rocha de Barros, author of PT, uma história, a history of Lula’s Workers' Party. Rocha de Barros is a sociologist and a columnist for Folha de S.Paulo. The book is yet to be translated into English. 

 At a moment when Nicolás Maduro commemorates 10 years in power in Venezuela, the opposition has agreed to participate in presidential elections in 2024, marking a change to their previous strategy of boycotting them. The United States has spent the past decade trying different measures to remove the Maduro dictatorship for office, most notably in 2019 recognizing opposition leader Juan Guaidó as the country’s interim president, a tactic that did not succeed. Now that the opposition is united, the U.S. should support their decision to move forward with elections, even if they are not ultimately free and fair. That’s what this week’s guests argue, and they call for a bipartisan approach to this support. Juan Cruz was the top official on Latin America at the White House at the beginning of the Trump administration and Mark Feierstein held that same job at the end of the Obama years.